Analyzing our last loss... Arizona Week 16

[Tokadub]

I personally believe it is much more valuable and productive to analyze your losses rather than analyze your wins. It is the study of defeats that can really help you to improve and to explore the ultimate questions, "Why did we lose? What can we do to win next time? Where can we improve? What must we focus on specifically in the future to avoid another loss?"

So I very recently watched our last loss against Arizona at home week 16 last season. I must preface this analysis by saying that I have currently finished my 12th and final beer of the night and I am totally wasted. HOWEVER... I still remember what I saw in that game and would like to provide a little report/reminder for what went wrong in our last defeat.

BIGGEST WEAKNESSES:

1) Our offensive line was terrible, absolutely atrocious... almost every single offensive play the Cardinals were able to pick us apart easily slicing and dicing our pass protection, at times literally untouched straight into a sack.

While Wilson was only sacked 4 times for a loss of 19 yards, the immense pressure and lack of protection caused what may be considered Wilson's worst game in his professional career.

Wilson went 11/27 (40.7%) for 108 yards 1 Touch Down and 1 Interception. His QBR was 11.5 and his Passer Rating was 49.6.

2) Our offense was just straight up ineffective. We had 4 interceptions but only scored twice the whole game (1 field goal, 1 touchdown to Zach Miller).

We had a total of 192 yards and a possession time of 22:36 which seems literally impossible in a game where you have 4 interceptions.

Although Lynch was at times effective with 71 total yards averaging 3.9 yards a carry, our run game was mostly ineffective. We only had 3 rushing first downs the whole game. We had 6 passing first downs which was a total of 9 first downs (equal to our 9 punts this game).

Our play calling seemed to be very predictable many 1st and 2nd downs getting stuffed with Lynch trying to force the middle when nothing was there.

3) Turbin shows his true colors, he's just not very good.

First kick off return he nearly fumbles but is ruled down by elbow just as the ball pops out.

Second kick off return he trips over his own feet after attempting the slightest lateral movement, he falls down untouched by any opponents leaving possibly 10-15+ yards on the field.

Third Kick off he knees the ball out of his own hand, once again completely untouched by the opponents.

Turbin is just not a clutch playmaker, he can't do anything but run straight ahead whenever he tries to make any evasive moves he screws it up. He will only ever be a mediocre power runner, but still has a place in the NFL as a backup.

It's inexcusable that Christine Michael didn't get more playing time last season, Turbin is officially a bust.

4) Kearse has a bit of a butter fingers problem + lack of speed + lack of separation.

Wilson targeted Kearse 7 times but completed 3/7 for 38 yards. Kearse totally failed on several of those catches the ball literally falling through or bouncing right off his hands. At times Kearse's speed was simply not enough for that extra step required to catch a perfect throw. Wilson was throwing some beautiful balls to Kearse and he straight up couldn't make the play.

I'm not hating on Kearse, re-watch the game if you don't believe me. Kearse looked pretty dang bad throughout the game but he somewhat redeemed himself with 2 pretty nice plays (1 of them he looked really sloppy and bobbled the ball on the back shoulder throw).

I think this game is a good example of why Kearse's catch rate is 10% lower than our next 6 leading receivers. He doesn't have great hands or speed. I think Wilson really makes him seem better than he really is. It almost seemed like this game they were trying to see what Kearse was made of and deliberately targeted him when other guys were open, he failed to impress in my opinion.

Kearse better watch out for Norwood, Rice, even the CFL guy Matthews I think Kearse is in danger of losing his spot even Lockette could pose a threat as our best gunner on special teams. I don't think Kearse is a lock by any means unless we show him the kind of loyalty we showed Turbin when there were seemingly better players available.

Meanwhile Tate had 4 less yards than Kearse (34 vs 38) and he was much more effective 2/3 vs Kearse's 3/7.

Balwdin was also terrible 1/6... this game is a good example of how Tate was our best guy when our offensive line was in complete fail mode. Our game against the Rams when Wilson was sacked 6-7 times the most of the season, I believe Tate was by far our most effective reciever. We could really miss Tate for clutch broken plays and punt returns.

5) Sherman getting super pissed to throw the challenge flag was right on the money. We did in fact strip the ball and should of been rewarded the fumble. If you look carefully you can determine that the ball was clearly out before his left forearm was down.

If you look carefully you can see the ball is already out, the screenshot of him being down was taken the exact moment his arm hit the ground (muscle impact was visible). So unless he has the longest arms in the world there's no way his arm was down in the screenshot where the ball is already out. I thought it was fairly clear by comparing the two shots and could even be seen if you watched very carefully in the shot of the ball coming out...

So yeah we got robbed on that one.

BALL OUT:


MAN DOWN:


6) Penalties... 9 of them for 102 yards really hurt.

7) The throw that clearly bounced off the turf and was called an interception for hitting Baldwins arm was total garbage. May have cost us the game but we'll never know.


Greatest Strengths:

Not much to report here it was a pretty ugly game. Our defense was pretty dang good, can't ask for much more when we get 4 interceptions. It was mainly our offense that let us down. Wilson played better than his #'s would suggest but our offensive line and many failed catches by Kearse + Lynch getting stuffed kinda ruined the day.


Conclusion: Most of our problems seemed to center around our horrible offensive line that was completely ineffective with both pass protection and run blocking.

I am very concerned after analyzing our most recent loss because this off-season we really haven't done anything to address our offensive line problems. I expect Arizona to be just as good defensively, the Rams may be even better (scary), and the 49ers are always solid.

In other words, we have not adressed our biggest weakness. The same reason we lost games last season (and nearly lost even more games) will be the same reason we may fail to repeat for another Super Bowl.

I still think we are Super Bowl favorites, but I really wish we would of focused more on offensive line this off-season. I'm quite frightened to see Wilson taking a ton of hits again this season. It doesn't matter how good the majority of our offense is, if our offensive line does not improve from last season we could lose against any decent defensive team on any given Sunday.

Stat source: http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=331222026

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

WOW. Greaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat job, I think?

Offensive game plan was simple... run...run...throw deep. It wasn't much of a secret, Seahawks for whatever reason took a lot OOOOMPH!!! out from their offense after the Monday Night Blow-Out of the Saint. Not only did the Seahawks dumb down the offense but they failed to make quick adjustments. To me is was as if they were practicing the same set of plays, over and over again until they could execute like they were playing situations rather than trying to win a game (on offense). Defensively, it was a different story, to me it felt they knew the offense was going vanilla and Pete put it on their shoulders to keep the score low and win the game. Win clutch situations. It lead me to believe it was what Richard Sherman said after the 49ers loss because it make sense in retrospect that the last 4 games of the season was "glorified practice".

Rams game was a little different, it was a must win, and there was a different attitude and approach from a coaching aspect. Bevell definitely had a better game-planned (compared to what we saw @ St. Louis and in 3 previous weeks prior to the last game) and the team was making necessary adjustments.

That's what I believe, after the Saints game, the team was more so competing against themselves rather than the opponent on the field. If any evidence is needed to justify my claim that otherwise wasn't stated, just look at the LOB, competing with each other for every possible int with reckless abandonment.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

I don't know about anyone else, but sitting in the stands, that game just had a strange feel to it. The entire game was just off for some reason. Missed extra points, flukey pick at the end etc. Just overall, they didn't have it that day. But, they brought it when it counted vs the Lambs and in the playoffs. That game was maybe the best thing to get them to re-focus.

 

[James in PA]

I was so pissed after that Cardinals game. I had something planned for the following Sunday during the time they were set to face the Rams. Had we taken care of "bidness" against the Cardinals, it would have made that Rams game irrelevant. Needless to say, I had to cancel my plans.

 

[volsunghawk]

I am very concerned after analyzing our most recent loss because this off-season we really haven't done anything to address our offensive line problems. I expect Arizona to be just as good defensively, the Rams may be even better (scary), and the 49ers are always solid.

In other words, we have not adressed our biggest weakness. The same reason we lost games last season (and nearly lost even more games) will be the same reason we may fail to repeat for another Super Bowl.

I still think we are Super Bowl favorites, but I really wish we would of focused more on offensive line this off-season. I'm quite frightened to see Wilson taking a ton of hits again this season. It doesn't matter how good the majority of our offense is, if our offensive line does not improve from last season we could lose against any decent defensive team on any given Sunday.

Stat source: http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=331222026

Well, we did add Britt, Gilliam, Schilling, Van Roten, Irwin, and Isles. Scott was an attempt to add to the line until the surprise heart condition. And we might still see some additions as teams shuffle players throughout training camps. So it's not like the team's doing nothing to address the O-line... they're just not picking up big names.

Another way to help improve the line play is for Wilson to get the ball out quicker, and the addition of multiple weapons should help with that. A healthy Harvin will make a huge difference, and Norwood (if he sticks) could be a great outlet for quick passes. Having McCoy healthy at TE can also provide another outlet that wasn't there last season. And Wilson himself can work on reducing the number of times he scrambles his way into trouble. There are times when he holds on to the ball too long to try and make something happen, and the results seem to split between big plays and big losses.

It's entirely possible that we see better health from Okung and Unger this season. It's possible that Sweezy, Bowie, Carp, and Bailey all show progress in their performance (especially Bowie and Bailey as they enter their sophomore seasons). It's possible that Britt and some other new blood makes a positive contribution. Who knows?

As for the rest of our division, yeah. I agree that the Rams are just horrifying along their D-line (though not really anywhere else to be honest). And the 49ers are solid, but they have a lot of questions. When does Justin Smith start to drop off? What's going on with Aldon Smith? Will the revamped secondary be as porous as last year's version? As for the Cards, they were monsters last season, but they just lost Dansby and Washington - two of their top guys from last season. Calais Campbell and the secondary can't do everything, so the jury is out on whether they maintain their form from last year.

 

[Evil_Shenanigans]

Now I have to go and re-watch this. I like the idea of post mortems on these losses after the emotion wears off. For me the penalties were a festering sore all last season. We were routinely spotting teams an extra 100 yards of offense simply through penalty yards all last season. This game it caught up to them! If I could pick only one area of improvement for our Superbowl Championship winning team it would be this. I think the revolving door offensive line contributed to this immensely. The lack of playing time as a group surely lead to more guys out of position, more blown assignments, more holding calls etc. With the addition of the new blood to Sweezy, Unger and Okung I am hoping Cable can quickly get them in Sync. With a hopefully healthy McCoy returning and Miller and Willson healthy we should be good at TE, which will help tremendously with pass protection, and run blocking, to say nothing of the added receiving firepower. Off to my DVR.

 

[Skansi82]

"Conclusion: Most of our problems seemed to center around our horrible offensive line that was completely ineffective with both pass protection and run blocking.

I am very concerned after analyzing our most recent loss because this off-season we really haven't done anything to address our offensive line problems. I expect Arizona to be just as good defensively, the Rams may be even better (scary), and the 49ers are always solid.

In other words, we have not adressed our biggest weakness. The same reason we lost games last season (and nearly lost even more games) will be the same reason we may fail to repeat for another Super Bowl.

I still think we are Super Bowl favorites, but I really wish we would of focused more on offensive line this off-season. I'm quite frightened to see Wilson taking a ton of hits again this season. It doesn't matter how good the majority of our offense is, if our offensive line does not improve from last season we could lose against any decent defensive team on any given Sunday."







For starters, considering that you drank 12 beers prior to posting, pretty solid job with your spelling and formatting.

I like the concept of exploring our weaknesses, but don't necessarily agree with all of your conclusions. You can argue whether or not we've upgraded our OL, but to say that "we really haven't done anything to address our offensive line problems" is kind of silly. O-line was our biggest area of focus in the draft and UDFAgency....period.

You also have to consider that McQuistan was starting at LG in that game. You don't think a healthy Carp, Van Roten, Bowie, or any of our rookies is an upgrade there? We lost Breno at RT, but I'm confident that Bowie, Bailey,Britt, or one of our UDFAs will be as good or better this year. I agree that our OL play has been our weak link, but I think they've addressed the situation and now have a pretty good talent pool to draw from and develop.

Turbin comments? A little harsh, but not that far off base. I don't think they'll hesitate to clip him if he doesn't show improvement this year.

Are you calling Kearse pedestrian? I think he is at risk of being "out upsided" by younger and more athletic guys, but I don't think Pete/John will forget how clutch he was in big games.

Highlighting how valuable Tate was when our line broke-down, and in games that we lost, doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Kinda like saying a hitter is clutch in games when we're behind by 5 runs or more that we end up losing. I think we're going to miss Golden's swagger and skills in the return game, but Baldwin and Kearse made the game saving/season saving catches last year. Tate averaged 2.7 catches and 20.4 yards a game in the playoffs last year, with zero touchdowns. I think we'll be fine.

The board has been a little thin on material, so I appreciate the analysis. That being said I'm still keeping my rose colored Super Bowl glasses on until this year's team forces me to take them off!!!

 

[Throwdown]

Off one game, you make that conclusion?

 

[Sports Hernia]

Here's things I remember about that game.

Horrible offensive play calling, predictible and vanilla.

Horrible offensive line play.

Horrible offensive execution (which is tied to the first 2).

Horrible officiating as explained by other posters.

I hate losing any game, but in hindsight it may have been a good thing, as the team seemed to be able to refocus pretty good after it.

 

[Jerhawk]

I hate losing any game, but in hindsight it may have been a good thing, as the team seemed to be able to refocus pretty good after it.

Agreed. That game really helped them re focus, and they came out strong the next week and beat the snot out of the Rams.

 

[Timmahawk]

Here's things I remember about that game.

Horrible offensive play calling, predictible and vanilla.

Horrible offensive line play.

Horrible offensive execution (which is tied to the first 2).

Horrible officiating as explained by other posters.

I hate losing any game, but in hindsight it may have been a good thing, as the team seemed to be able to refocus pretty good after it.

This. We were so vanilla for the niners, giants and cardinals it was frustrating. I understand why they did it, I just don't agree with the strategy 100%

 

[ManBunts]

Wow, one game and you just decided all that? One poor performance and it's over? I'm all for analyzing our losses, but you picked the worst one to look at.

My pet peeve, and people asked this of the Broncos when we obliterated them, is the question "Who gets blamed for this loss". Why can't the other team simply be THAT good?! We certainly are. To that point, the Cardinals were easily the most underrated team in the NFL. Playoff caliber, heck, division winner caliber in any division but ours. So don't simply say "We did horrible, it's all our fault". Give them credit, and understand that we lost to a good team.

Next, you have to add the caveat that this was the last game of the year and nothing was in it for us. It's idiotic to risk your players headed into a brutal playoff run, even if you have a home winning streak on the line. I loved the streak, but I'm also glad it's gone. I think it eases some unnecessary pressure. The offensive line was our weakness last year, a patchwork of protection at best, but how many "starters" were in against Arizona? I don't know honestly, but I can bet we weren't risking anyone as thin as we were. If you wanted to evaluate a game you should've picked the 49er game in SF because there was no caveat there.

Turbin. You really dug into a guy that had JUST taken over those duties. I'm not excusing the mistakes, but great returners are not easy to find. We've all watched Lockette blow up return guys. Do you have any idea what type of nerve it takes to stand there while several tons of meat are running down the field full tilt at you? It's a mind trip. Turbin did poorly. Yes. But to say he's not good at all is just ignorant. What about the work out of the backfield, the screen passes taken for first downs? He's not Lynch, nobody ever said that, but look at the status of the run games on other teams and tell me Turbin still sucks.

Kearse. Really? Jittery? Butterfingers? Again what's with applying these labels off one game?! Did you not see the NFC championship game? Did you not see the Super Bowl human pinball move? Did you not see the catch in Carolina? I'm sorry, but Kearse, after his eye surgery has in my opinion some of the surest hands on the team after ADB and Harvin. The man has made clutch catches in traffic time and again and is a go-to for Russell for a reason.

So let's say this, we did poorly. Our line didn't make holes and offer the protection it should've, our special teams did not perform, and there were route issues. And we damn well learned from it because, hey, we went to the Super Bowl and crushed the best offense in history. But let's not condemn players off one game

 

[GLOCKHAWK]

Off one game, you make that conclusion?

4 interceptions for Palmer + An off game = Hawks rare loss by 7 points!

 

[Hasselbeck]

No need to really dissect a loss in Week 16 from a year ago. Come September 4th, 2013 no longer matters.

I chalk it up to just a terrible game from everyone but the defense. Those happen in the NFL. Hell every Super Bowl champ has a few clunkers along the way.

 

[3Girls'HawkDad]

Their defense kicked our ass

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Nah, it was an even game, both teams knocked the snot out of eachother. And it has nothing to do with the fact that they won the SuperbOwl.

 

[GLOCKHAWK]

If you wanna analyze ONE loss then I submit this: We lost 3 games v.s. (Indy/Niners/Cards) with a with a combined score of 70 to 55. Do the math...GO HAWKS!!

 

[GLOCKHAWK]

Their defense kicked our ass

NOPE

 

[Evil_Shenanigans]

I re-watched the game again today and made the following observations.
• They were targeting Jeremy Lane a lot in the first half in particular. He was burnt (it was close though) on the 63 yarder to Brittan Golden in the first quarter and after that they threw at him regularly.
• The Offensive line was unable to stop, or even slow down Calais Campbell in particular, but Abraham, and Washington were also regular fixtures in the backfield. Wilson was getting chased, and hit a lot as a result. This was compounded by the fact that we were confined to really only 3 actual receiving targets, with Millers touchdown being the rare exception.
• Tate I think was nursing an injury to his left thumb, which may have led to his fumble (to Kearse) and I think he exacerbated it later in the game. Our receivers were well covered most of the game and unable to get any meaningful separation. With no one to throw to and trying to evade the AZ rush Wilson had a hard time making anything happen and wisely tossed it away to end drives several times.
• The run game was no more successful. Lynch was the only guy they trusted to run the ball and he was frequently met in the backfield by the best run D in football last year. I think this game alone may be the impetus for Bevell to spread it around amongst the running backs a little more this season. Whether Turbin is part of that rotation has yet to be seen, but Christine Michael is making his case in OTA’s, and I am damn glad to see it.
• Whether he is, or is not in the rotation to tote the rock, Robert Turbin should not be relied upon as a kick returner EVER AGAIN!
• Hauschka hit the goal post TWICE in one game! You know you got some bad juju going on when that happens.
• Run defense was not particularly effective in stopping the tandem of Mendenhall and Ellington. Neither hit a hundy but they burned up a lot of clock between the two of them.
• With a total of 192 total yards of offense beset by 102 penalty yards I need not go on another rant about how we need to reign in the penalties. Nevertheless, this needs to be addressed, and fast.
• Ref’s… what are you going to do?
LSS we underperformed on practically every phase of the game and were still in it until the very bitter end. Our worst defeat of the year. And the springboard from which they launched to their/our first title. I would say they have watched this game more than a few times since to see just what they did wrong, and what they can build upon.

 

[ZagHawk]

I always wonder when RW is running for his life (which seems like A LOT compared to other teams). Is it because RW is holding onto the ball too long, or our O-Line isn't that good.