2016 Cap Space

[nIdahoSeahawk]

I'm no cap guru or anything, so I'm curious if any of the "cap experts" on the board can help me break this down. I'm just curious how much room we have for Wilson/Wagner without cutting talent, so I started looking at the numbers.

So we have just short of $10M in space now, with a little over $10M in dead money. That puts us at roughly $20M in space next offseason under the theory that any expiring contracts are resigned for similar numbers. I think it's a safe bet that the cap goes up roughly another $10M next year, putting us at $30M? We should be able to work both Wilson/Wagner for that.

Is my train of thought here correct, or? Thanks!

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Over the cap, best site for all cap related questions

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/seattle-seahawks/

If you click on the 2016 tab you'll see the projections for cap space. The biggest relief will not only be the increase in cap, but Harvin's 7.2M of dead cap coming off. So yeah, plenty of room to fit both Russell and B-Wagz under the cap. Which IMO is the main reason the Hawks are balking at the new money for Russell's deal. They'd be strapped this year if they had to figure out a way to fit Russell's first year in 2015, instead of 2016.

 

[QuickLightning]

That's not how cap works at all...

Go here:
http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/seattle-seahawks

The cap is currently a bit over $140MM. It's reasonable to assume it will be near $150MM next year.

That puts the Seahawks at $40MM in cap space. Sounds like a lot, right?

Problem is, that is only with 47 people signed. So that means the team is short AT LEAST 6 players on the active roster and 10 practice squad players. So 16 players at a bare minimum, excluding any injuries that go on IR/NFI etc. If split evenly, that's only $2.5MM each. Obviously the 10 practice squad guys will not make nearly that much, but it still goes to show there isn't a lot of money to go around.

Another problem is a lot of the people on the current 47 man roster will not be there come next year. Figure a lot of the UDFA signings will be cut and replaced with (extremely likely) more expensive options from free agency or re-signing current players from the roster. These guys will NOT be making a mere $435,000 and will increase the cap hit. Obviously Wilson is a likely candidate for this. If he is tagged, he's looking at around a $25 million cap hit. Taking away a big chunk of what is left to fill in the roster.

So no, there is not a lot of room without starting to look at cuts.

 

[Bigbadhawk]

2016 FA currently on the roster
Russell Okung (UFA)
Brandon Mebane (UFA)
Tony McDaniel (UFA)
Ahtyba Rubin (UFA)
Jermaine Kearse (UFA)
Bruce Irvin (UFA)
Jon Ryan (UFA)
Tarvaris Jackson (UFA)
Bobby Wagner (UFA)
Micheal Morgan (UFA)
Will Blackmon (UFA)
David King (ERFA)
Anthony McCoy (UFA)
Will Tukuafu (UFA)
Demarcus Dobbs (UFA)
Lemuel Jeanpierre (UFA)
Greg Scruggs (UFA)
Russell Wilson (UFA)
Deshawn Shead (RFA)
Ricardo Lockette (RFA)
Robert Turbin (UFA)
D'Anthony Smith (UFA)
Jeremy Lane (UFA)
Patrick Lewis (RFA)
J.R. Sweezy (UFA)
Steven Terrell (ERFA)
Keavon Milton (ERFA)
Alvin Bailey (RFA)
Derrick Coleman (RFA)
Cooper Helfet (ERFA)
Marcus Bailey (ERFA)
Chris Matthews (ERFA)
Jesse Williams (RFA)

 

[original poster]

Blimey, that's half the squad.

 

[kearly]

That puts the Seahawks at $40MM in cap space. Sounds like a lot, right?

Problem is, that is only with 47 people signed. So that means the team is short AT LEAST 6 players on the active roster and 10 practice squad players. So 16 players at a bare minimum, excluding any injuries that go on IR/NFI etc. If split evenly, that's only $2.5MM each. Obviously the 10 practice squad guys will not make nearly that much, but it still goes to show there isn't a lot of money to go around.

Practice squad players only make $6,300 a week, or about $1 million combined for every practice squad player for the entire season.

As far as the 6 currently unsigned players, Wilson and Wagner are two of them, and Sweezy and Turbin are two more. Wilson and Wagner will very likely be under some kind of contract, and if Sweezy or Turbin are let go, they'll probably be replaced by a draft pick making $400k.

 

[QuickLightning]

That puts the Seahawks at $40MM in cap space. Sounds like a lot, right?

Problem is, that is only with 47 people signed. So that means the team is short AT LEAST 6 players on the active roster and 10 practice squad players. So 16 players at a bare minimum, excluding any injuries that go on IR/NFI etc. If split evenly, that's only $2.5MM each. Obviously the 10 practice squad guys will not make nearly that much, but it still goes to show there isn't a lot of money to go around.

Practice squad players only make $6,300 a week, or about $1 million combined for every practice squad player for the entire season.

As far as the 6 currently unsigned players, Wilson and Wagner are two of them, and Sweezy and Turbin are two more. Wilson and Wagner will very likely be under some kind of contract, and if Sweezy or Turbin are let go, they'll probably be replaced by a draft pick making $400k.

You know there are a ton of undrafted free agents and garbage fringe players on that 2016 roster, right? Lots of guys making the minimum salary that will not be there next year and will undoubtedly be replaced by more expensive players that can actually play at an NFL level. I was simplifying things to point out that the $40MM will not go very far.

Contrast it with any other team. Lots of teams actually have MORE than 50 people on their 2016 roster.

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

Just to focus on offense, there are 11 players who will still be under contract in 2016. Those contracts all will escalate in pay, increasing by a total of 6m

Lynch +3m
Graham +1m
Baldwin +1m
Richardson +.2m
Michael +.15m
Britt +.15m
Lockett +.15m
Willson +.1m
Norwood +.08m
Poole +.09m
Glowinski +.09m

So just right there, those natural raises will chew into any cap increase. Looking at the offensive UFAs, I'll include 2015 salaries to highlight where relief can be had

2016 FA currently on the roster
Russell Okung 7.2m
Jermaine Kearse 2.3m
Tarvaris Jackson 1.5m
Anthony McCoy 0.735m
Will Tukuafu (UFA) 0.665
Lemuel Jeanpierre (UFA) 0.665
Russell Wilson (UFA) 1.69
Ricardo Lockette (RFA) 0.660
Robert Turbin (UFA) 0.774
Patrick Lewis (RFA) 0.585
J.R. Sweezy (UFA) 1.55
Keavon Milton (ERFA) 0.51
Alvin Bailey (RFA) 0.587
Derrick Coleman (RFA) 0.585
Cooper Helfet (ERFA) 0.51
Chris Matthews (ERFA) 0.51

Low budget = BOLD

For the bulk of these players, they can get resigned for Jeanpierre/Scruggs money. So while the list looks daunting, the boost in cap for several of these players would be quite modest. That's if we didn't infuse some rookie competition to reload them to begin with.

Obviously at OC, we'll likely be trimming one of Jeanpierre or Lewis. Maybe not this year but next. We have a few players on rookie deals who will fill out that position and lead to a modest trim.

Players that will get significant raises would be Wilson, Sweezy and Bailey. It's not hard to see the method to the madness of selecting Poole and Glowinski this year. That could mean Sweez and Bailey end up getting Tate'd off the team. I'm not sure Okung is going to command much over his current pre-CBA salary. His availability issues will dampen his value on the open market.

Outside of the significant raise group and a possible offer we can't match situation with Okung, Offensively I'd expect less than 9m in cap growth on that group for the players under contract for 2016 and low budget UFAs we resign. And in a couple cases, there is room for savings. Simply letting Kearse fall off the books in favor of a rookie deal player would probably finance the entire low budget group on it's own. This organic growth is probably the 'hidden' cap expense that most aren't considering when speculating about future cap space.

 

[Hawks46]

Blimey, that's half the squad.

The bottom half.

For the most part.

 

[Hawks46]

That puts the Seahawks at $40MM in cap space. Sounds like a lot, right?

Problem is, that is only with 47 people signed. So that means the team is short AT LEAST 6 players on the active roster and 10 practice squad players. So 16 players at a bare minimum, excluding any injuries that go on IR/NFI etc. If split evenly, that's only $2.5MM each. Obviously the 10 practice squad guys will not make nearly that much, but it still goes to show there isn't a lot of money to go around.

Practice squad players only make $6,300 a week, or about $1 million combined for every practice squad player for the entire season.

As far as the 6 currently unsigned players, Wilson and Wagner are two of them, and Sweezy and Turbin are two more. Wilson and Wagner will very likely be under some kind of contract, and if Sweezy or Turbin are let go, they'll probably be replaced by a draft pick making $400k.

You know there are a ton of undrafted free agents and garbage fringe players on that 2016 roster, right? Lots of guys making the minimum salary that will not be there next year and will undoubtedly be replaced by more expensive players that can actually play at an NFL level. I was simplifying things to point out that the $40MM will not go very far.

Contrast it with any other team. Lots of teams actually have MORE than 50 people on their 2016 roster.

We also have a lot of draft picks fighting for jobs the last few years. Also, John Schneider is really good at finding those UDFA's...what makes you think he won't be able to find more just because we're squeezed for cap room ? I get that it can be dire, especially if we over pay Wilson, but there are a lot of scenarios where we can save money. KPL can take over for Irvin if he progresses at an average rate this year.

Kearse can be replaced by a lot of our younger WRs fighting for a roster spot.

Baldwin can be replaced by Lockett, and it won't be that much of a stretch to do so.

I don't know why everyone fears Sweezy getting so much money. He's very good at run blocking. And pretty bad at pass blocking. He can get someone less agile than Wilson killed pretty quickly. Guess how many QBs are less agile than Russell Wilson ?

You also said it best..."garbage fringe players". We're getting to the SB with guys like that.....what makes you think we have to upgrade them with more costly players ? Odds are if a guy is a "garbage fringe player" it's precisely the kind of guy that Pete and John are used to churning every year to upgrade depth. Replacing them with.....other cheap players.

I'm not really worried until it's time to be worried. The one thing Schneider has been able to do is keep us out of cap hell. I see him keeping that going.