MontanaHawk05
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Sorry I left you with so little time to read this.
1. The receiving matchups. Cam Newton is throwing to weak receivers covered by good defensive backs. Russell Wilson is throwing to the reverse. Cam is a turnover machine in playoff games, and I expect our defensive DVOA to show up more tomorrow.
2. Our defense is back. Prior to last October, nobody was particularly amazed by how well Newton played our defense. We were considered probably the closest thing to his kryptonite. Then he came in and blew us away in our house, and in all the worship, nobody noticed that our defense was playing on one foot.
Bobby Wagner, in particular, has been a key cog in our prior takedowns of Newton. He's made a great spy and solid tackler. He was out in October. So was anyone who could have pushed Cary Williams down the bench (in particular Jeremy Lane). Jordan Hill and Frank Clark, solid rotational players, were also out. Those are four difference makers, particularly against Cam.
3. We're not playing in Antarctic cold. This game won't bear any of the basic functional breakdowns we saw against the Vikings. (I have new respect for how much skill goes into a successful field goal.)
4. We don't need Lynch. Christine Michael has stopped sacrificing yards trying to be flashy, because he's figured out that gaining three yards a pop establishes the run and keeps defenses honest. It will open the playbook. Good thing too, because Lynch was already looking bad before being hurt, and I doubt he's motivated.
5. We have Lynch. Despite my annoyance at the most-watched bus-boarding in sports history, I doubt it can hurt having him. And to be perfectly honest, I still suspect Pete held him back against Minnesota, just like I suspect he did Harvin in 2013, because...
6. I half suspect that Pete was looking past Minnesota last week. It happens. Seattle almost drops an embarrassing home squeaker to some crap team, then blows up and utterly dominates some playoff contender (see: New Orleans regular season, 2013). I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'. But since I'm just sayin', this Carolina game, obviously, will be one that Pete is not looking past.
7. Greg Olsen Greg Schmolsen. We can cover tight ends. Our secondary was chaos when tight ends were beating us early in the year, yes, and it wasn't all Kam's fault. Pete put at least one such touchdown on Earl and at least one on Cary, from what I remember. Olsen might get some yards, but I doubt he pulls a Fitz. It's not like anyone else on their receiving squad will demand extra coverage. We devote resources to him and find a way.
8. We've become road warriors. You read that right. We've won six straight on the road. Thanks for that stat, Tech. (Irony: Seattle's home crowd noise has actually been hurting them as much as the opposition lately???!!!)
9. Carolina is weak on special teams. Their DVOA on defending kick returns is bottom ten; on punt returns, bottom five. Booming every kickoff deep has been enough to bury Tyler Lockett all eason. But watch for him to rip off at least one big return if Carolina isn't on point.
10. Our pass rush is nuts. That's exactly what we've been missing in every playoff exit thus far. I already mentioned Wagner, but our front seven can move, they're deep, they're healthy, and most importantly for this game, they can tackle. They're deep, and they're all healthy. Cam will be on his toes.
11. Kam is playing motivated. He was bashed a little unfairly last week, but he's always been key to any Seattle playoff run and he knows it. The Legion always reacts well to criticism.
12. Our run defense is top-notch. They've drawn notice from several analysts for their near-perfect discipline against Adrian Peterson. Cam will have to beat them with his arm. It might happen.
13. Seattle is operating on a different offensive playbook. Harking back to #1, I still maintain that Pete and Bevell darkened half their playbook until the bye. It strains credibility to think that they "just figured it out" at that point, or even that they "swallowed their pride" and implemented a radically different offense. They had it. They were just waiting for a late push to deploy it. It bit them in the ass and left them as the #6 seed, but here we are. Carolina won't be looking at the same simplistic BS they saw the first time.
14. The Panthers enjoyed a cupcake schedule. We did not. I was worried about our defense playing weak teams in November and December, sure. But our win against Arizona comforted me some. I am optimistic that our defense does not turn out to be another 2007-esque poser.
15. Ted Ginn, Jr. is gimpy. That doesn't help Cam or their special teams game.
16. Have you noticed we've cut waaaay back on the offensive penalties? No, of course not. They're only acknowledged when they're present, like so many other things.
17. It's karma after all of Newton's douchy BS. Act like you've been in the end zone before, Cam.
Seattle 30
Carolina 21
1. The receiving matchups. Cam Newton is throwing to weak receivers covered by good defensive backs. Russell Wilson is throwing to the reverse. Cam is a turnover machine in playoff games, and I expect our defensive DVOA to show up more tomorrow.
2. Our defense is back. Prior to last October, nobody was particularly amazed by how well Newton played our defense. We were considered probably the closest thing to his kryptonite. Then he came in and blew us away in our house, and in all the worship, nobody noticed that our defense was playing on one foot.
Bobby Wagner, in particular, has been a key cog in our prior takedowns of Newton. He's made a great spy and solid tackler. He was out in October. So was anyone who could have pushed Cary Williams down the bench (in particular Jeremy Lane). Jordan Hill and Frank Clark, solid rotational players, were also out. Those are four difference makers, particularly against Cam.
3. We're not playing in Antarctic cold. This game won't bear any of the basic functional breakdowns we saw against the Vikings. (I have new respect for how much skill goes into a successful field goal.)
4. We don't need Lynch. Christine Michael has stopped sacrificing yards trying to be flashy, because he's figured out that gaining three yards a pop establishes the run and keeps defenses honest. It will open the playbook. Good thing too, because Lynch was already looking bad before being hurt, and I doubt he's motivated.
5. We have Lynch. Despite my annoyance at the most-watched bus-boarding in sports history, I doubt it can hurt having him. And to be perfectly honest, I still suspect Pete held him back against Minnesota, just like I suspect he did Harvin in 2013, because...
6. I half suspect that Pete was looking past Minnesota last week. It happens. Seattle almost drops an embarrassing home squeaker to some crap team, then blows up and utterly dominates some playoff contender (see: New Orleans regular season, 2013). I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'. But since I'm just sayin', this Carolina game, obviously, will be one that Pete is not looking past.
7. Greg Olsen Greg Schmolsen. We can cover tight ends. Our secondary was chaos when tight ends were beating us early in the year, yes, and it wasn't all Kam's fault. Pete put at least one such touchdown on Earl and at least one on Cary, from what I remember. Olsen might get some yards, but I doubt he pulls a Fitz. It's not like anyone else on their receiving squad will demand extra coverage. We devote resources to him and find a way.
8. We've become road warriors. You read that right. We've won six straight on the road. Thanks for that stat, Tech. (Irony: Seattle's home crowd noise has actually been hurting them as much as the opposition lately???!!!)
9. Carolina is weak on special teams. Their DVOA on defending kick returns is bottom ten; on punt returns, bottom five. Booming every kickoff deep has been enough to bury Tyler Lockett all eason. But watch for him to rip off at least one big return if Carolina isn't on point.
10. Our pass rush is nuts. That's exactly what we've been missing in every playoff exit thus far. I already mentioned Wagner, but our front seven can move, they're deep, they're healthy, and most importantly for this game, they can tackle. They're deep, and they're all healthy. Cam will be on his toes.
11. Kam is playing motivated. He was bashed a little unfairly last week, but he's always been key to any Seattle playoff run and he knows it. The Legion always reacts well to criticism.
12. Our run defense is top-notch. They've drawn notice from several analysts for their near-perfect discipline against Adrian Peterson. Cam will have to beat them with his arm. It might happen.
13. Seattle is operating on a different offensive playbook. Harking back to #1, I still maintain that Pete and Bevell darkened half their playbook until the bye. It strains credibility to think that they "just figured it out" at that point, or even that they "swallowed their pride" and implemented a radically different offense. They had it. They were just waiting for a late push to deploy it. It bit them in the ass and left them as the #6 seed, but here we are. Carolina won't be looking at the same simplistic BS they saw the first time.
14. The Panthers enjoyed a cupcake schedule. We did not. I was worried about our defense playing weak teams in November and December, sure. But our win against Arizona comforted me some. I am optimistic that our defense does not turn out to be another 2007-esque poser.
15. Ted Ginn, Jr. is gimpy. That doesn't help Cam or their special teams game.
16. Have you noticed we've cut waaaay back on the offensive penalties? No, of course not. They're only acknowledged when they're present, like so many other things.
17. It's karma after all of Newton's douchy BS. Act like you've been in the end zone before, Cam.
Seattle 30
Carolina 21
