12 man draft with 2 flex

[kearly]

Picked 2nd overall, 12 man league, 16 rounds. QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1TE, 2 FLEX (TE/WR/RB), K, DEF

1st round (2nd overall) RB Adrian Peterson
2nd round (23rd overall) WR Jordy Nelson
3rd round (26th overall) WR Alshon Jeffery
4th round (47th overall) RB Toby Gerhart
5th round (50th overall) RB Joique Bell
6th round (71st overall) QB Russell Wilson
7th round (74th overall) TE Dennis Pitta
8th round (95th overall) WR Reggie Wayne
9th round (98th overall) QB Philip Rivers
10th round (119th overall) WR Justin Hunter
11th round (122nd overall) WR Mike Evans
12th round (143rd overall) WR Kelvin Benjamin
13th round (146th overall) RB Dexter McCluster
14th round (167th overall) DEF Arizona Cardinals
15th round (170th overall) K Adam Vinatieri
16th round (191st overall) WR Jermaine Kearse

QB Russell Wilson
RB Adrian Peterson
RB Toby Gerhart
WR Jordy Nelson
WR Alshon Jeffery
FLEX Joique Bell
FLEX Reggie Wayne
TE Dennis Pitta
DEF Arizona Cardinals
K Adam Vinatieri

QB Philip Rivers
RB Dexter McCluster
WR Justin Hunter
WR Mike Evans
WR Kelvin Benjamin
WR Jermaine Kearse

This draft with it's double flex put a lot of value on finding "solid" production and "solid" depth. As a result, value buys like Golden Tate and Emmanuel Sanders went from 10th round type picks to 5th round picks. Even Chris Johnson was a 5th round pick.

1st round (2nd overall) RB Adrian Peterson

Peterson is a slight injury risk, but otherwise he's one of the safest performers in a rapidly improving offense. The presence of Norv Turner will mean more passes to RBs, so Peterson will probably see slightly fewer carries but far more touches overall. The extra 20-30 passes Peterson will catch this year will raise his already high value into consensus #1 pick territory. Thankfully, the guy who picked #1 went with McCoy, so I was able to get AP.

2nd round (23rd overall) WR Jordy Nelson

The double flex format removes the desperation factor at RB somewhat. Nelson was on pace to be a top 3 WR before Rodgers got hurt last year.

3rd round (26th overall) WR Alshon Jeffery

This pick came down to Antonio Brown vs. Jeffery again. I went with Jeffery this time for the heck of it.

4th round (47th overall) RB Toby Gerhart

I'm not sure how much I believe in Gerhart, but it's really hard to argue with a 300+ touch RB at #47 overall.

5th round (50th overall) RB Joique Bell

Bell is par value around this spot. I made this pick because I expected good receivers to last to my next pick, unfortunately there was a huge run on the WR position.

6th round (71st overall) QB Russell Wilson

Golden Tate, Emmanuel Sanders, Percy Harvin, Michael Crabtree and several other top WRs all disappeared before this pick, leaving me in a bit of a jam. The best WR left was Reggie Wayne, and the only appealing RB that was left was Bishop Sankey. I thought about getting Sankey here, but I already got him in my other draft and I wanted to avoid doubling down on his risk.

Sankey aside, the WR/RB landscape was already a wasteland. Anyone I drafted was going to be a reach, so I figured I'd take Wilson here to make sure I got him. I think Wilson is going to be a top 5 fantasy QB this year.

7th round (74th overall) TE Dennis Pitta

I waited until TEs were almost completely gone before taking one, and somehow Dennis Pitta lasted yet again.

8th round (95th overall) WR Reggie Wayne

Wayne sat at the top of the WR group for about 30 picks, I feel pretty lucky to get him 95th overall. He is still the best WR Luck has to throw to. He was well on his way to a strong fantasy season before his injury last season.

9th round (98th overall) QB Philip Rivers

The draft pool had been waiver-wire level dumpster diving for some time now, and many teams were picking their defenses and kickers already because it was that bad. There just wasn't a lot out there to keep me from drafting Rivers, who is the perfect compliment for Wilson this season as a QB platoon.

10th round (119th overall) WR Justin Hunter

Hunter has RG3 type knees and has ugly lapses in concentration. That said, he's flashed in a big way at times and a lot of people are hyping Hunter as this year's Alshon Jeffery. Pretty much at this point the only players left are backups, handcuffs, and breakouts. I'd rather stockpile breakouts and hope one of them pans out.

11th round (122nd overall) WR Mike Evans

As said in my last mock, rookie WRs usually do not produce, but Evans is in a relatively good situation and has phenomenal talent.

12th round (143rd overall) WR Kelvin Benjamin

I was not a fan of Benjamin the prospect, but Benjamin the NFL player has looked surprisingly polished this preseason. Cam Newton has almost no one else to throw to. Could be an interesting situation if Benjamin is getting 10 targets a game by default.

13th round (146th overall) RB Dexter McCluster

McCluster not only switched teams, he switched jobs. He's now set to be a Danny Woodhead type 3rd down back who will catch a lot of passes. McCluster has a knack for getting special teams touchdowns too.

14th round (167th overall) DEF Arizona Cardinals

By now, all of the good defenses were gone except for AZ. I think AZ's defense is going to decline this year, but their coaches are brilliant enough to potentially keep this defense producing despite some huge losses. Patrick Peterson gives them good ST value too. Mostly though, I drafted their defense to jinx them into sucking, at least during the early weeks of the season before I ditch them for a trendier defense.

15th round (170th overall) K Adam Vinatieri

It was either him or Gould, but Vinatieri scored more last year and plays indoors. Gould plays in potentially terrible weather during the fantasy playoffs. So I went with Vinatieri.

16th round (191st overall) WR Jermaine Kearse

This was the 2nd to last pick in the entire draft. To put this pick in perspective, the guy who picked right before this at 190 selected Robert Turbin. It'd been about 100 picks since the last time a no-doubter starter caliber RB/WR left the board. This is my "Mr. Irrelevant" pick anyway, Kearse would probably be the first player I drop when I make that first waiver wire move of the season.

The reason I took Kearse, I think he has a pretty decent chance to hit that elusive 1000 yard benchmark and he might even hit 10 TDs.

Seattle's pass offense is going to be a lot better this season because of the Harvin effect. No receiver seemed to benefit more from this effect in the playoffs and the preseason than Kearse. Kearse has become one of Wilson's most trusted targets on deep passes and red zone targets.

Additionally, I get the feeling that Seattle will probably pass the ball more in 2014 due to a league environment that makes passing so worth doing. If Wilson posts a 70% completion rate, suddenly the incentive to run drops substantially. Pete's willingness to tinker with hurry up hints at an uptick at passing attempts and total plays.

But more importantly, Seattle's WR group is not quite a loaded as it was in the past. There is no Sidney Rice or Golden Tate competing for targets, and those players have been replaced by two rookies. The first of those rookies still has much to learn, and the second of those rookies basically didn't do anything this preseason. Lockette and Walters are unlikely to see much action.

That means that probably 90% of the teams WR targets will go to Harvin/Kearse/Baldwin. I would not be shocked if all of those three got 100+ targets by the end of the year. And of those three, Kearse is going to get you the best bang for the buck with his deep ball skills and toughness in the redzone.

...

I liked how this draft started, but it dried up so fricken fast after the 5th round. I'd give this draft a B-. Other than AP and Nelson, I never really felt like a steal of a pick fell into my lap.

 

[Vetamur]

I think thats a great draft Kearly. I especially love your 10th 11th and 12th picks.. one of those 3 figures to be a diamond in the rough and that would be gravy considering your other WRs.

So if you had been given a choice of McCoy or AP you would still go AP? I think youve convinced me..but I have a feeling both are going to be disappointments or at least not live up to draft status this year. Its tough looking into that particualry crystal ball..

You felt real compelled to justify taking Kearse but I dont think you need to. Hes #3 in an offense that looks like it will start passing more, he catches a decent number of TDs, and is still growing as a receiver.
Good draft, Id give you a B.

 

[kearly]

You felt real compelled to justify taking Kearse but I dont think you need to. Hes #3 in an offense that looks like it will start passing more, he catches a decent number of TDs, and is still growing as a receiver.

Keep in mind that pretty much all that was left by the 191st pick were #5 WRs and #3 RBs. Even the likes of Robert Turbin had been drafted at that point. The best alternative WRs available were Davante Adams, Miles Austin, Donnie Avery, etc. I would be surprised if any of those guys have half the fantasy production Kearse has this year. It was an insanely weak group. And the RBs were even worse.

I hope I don't sound like I'm hyping Kearse too much. But I do think he's proven himself to be one of Wilson's most trusted receivers, and I think Seattle's offense is going to be in the stratosphere this season. If most of Wilson's passes target Seattle's trio of receivers and most of his best passes target Kearse, while completing 70% of those targets, Kearse could certainly have the potential of an 80 catch season with excellent TD numbers. I would expect Kearse to have equal or better fantasy numbers this year to Doug Baldwin, and Baldwin went about 80 picks before Kearse did.

So if you had been given a choice of McCoy or AP you would still go AP? I think youve convinced me..but I have a feeling both are going to be disappointments or at least not live up to draft status this year. Its tough looking into that particualry crystal ball..

Remember how Matt Forte saw his fantasy value explode last season? It's not because he actually got any better at playing RB. It's because the offense he played in changed. Any time an offense jumps from mediocre to elite it's going to benefit a RB. Especially when that new offense is throwing a ton of passes to said RB. An average RB reception gains about twice as many yards as an average RB rushing attempt. And since fantasy counts receiving and rushing yards the same, that means RBs who catch a ton of passes are extremely valuable in fantasy.

AP is pretty much the exact same situation in 2014 as Forte was in 2013. His offense is on the cusp of breaking into elite territory, and his new OC is a big believer in throwing passes to his RBs. Better offense means more plays, which means more touches for AP, and since more of those touches will be catches, it means you can expect a 200-300 yard boost to AP's yards from scrimmage this year.

The one downside to AP is that he's getting to the age where you start watching closely for signs of collapse. He's had injuries in two of the last three seasons. But if he stays healthy, he's the most likely RB to finish #1 in points.

 

[Vetamur]

not sure I wrote clearly.. I think Kearse at that position is great value. Hes far more valuable in FF than Turbin... I doubt he gets 80 catches..but I think 50 to 6 is possible. The Seahawks kept 7 WRs so they are probably planning on getting the rookies playing time by late season. Anyway, I think Kearse is a great late pick.

 

[kearly]

My expectation is that our 4-7 receivers will combine for maybe 20 catches. Prior to the Harvin injury in 2013, Seattle's #4 and #5 WRs were Baldwin and Kearse, two very capable receivers. By contrast, the Richardson/Norwood/Walters/Lockette group is nowhere near as ready to contribute so I foresee their role being very minor.

I think Seattle will target TE's a bit more with Luke Willson coming along nicely. But consider that Willson and Miller only combined for 53 catches last year- a relatively minor number.

They might target RBs slightly more depending on whether or not Christine Michael is on the active roster. Lynch and Turbin combined for only 44 catches last year. Because Wilson is so mobile and because he is always looking deep, Seattle's offense generally avoids targeting RBs, despite having three excellent receiving RBs.

Factor in maybe 15 catches to miscellaneous targets like a 3rd TE or Derrick Coleman, and that gets you to roughly 125 catches by players other than Harvin, Kearse, or Baldwin (barring injury).

Seattle completed 267 passes last season, but I think that number is about to go way up. FIrst, I think our passing offense is going to be so good that Pete will lean on it more than the past, and I think Seattle will probably finish with something close to a 50/50 run/pass split. I also think that in the new environment our defense is going to have a harder time winning games for us and Seattle will have significantly more pressure to score put on their offense.

Then factor in the "Harvin effect" which will dramatically raise Wilson's completion percentage, and suddenly you are looking at a team with maybe 350 completions. That might seem like too big a leap, until you realize that even 350 completions would have ranked below the NFL median last season (356). Only two teams caught fewer passes than Seattle last year. That's about to change in a big way.

Fuzzy math, I know. But that basically leaves about 225 catches for Harvin/Kearse/Baldwin. That puts Kearse's upside around 80 catches, more realistically 65-75. But even at 70 catches he could easily break 1000 yards and garner 8+ TDs given how enormously productive he is per target. He looked great in the postseason, he's looked better in the preseason. I think he's going to have a really nice year.