SalishHawkFan
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All stats are for this season (excluding the final play of the Super Bowl) from the 1 yd. line. Any down.
Passes from the 1 yd line happened 108 times for 66 TD's and 0 INTs. 61% success rate
Seattle had 2 attempts for 1 TD. 50% success rate was below average.
NE gave up 1 TD on one pass. 100%.
223 rushes led to 129 TD's and 2 Fumbles. 58% success rate. 1% disaster rate. With two tries odds of success on average is 78%.
Seattle had 7 rushes for 3TD's, 0 Fumbles. 43% success rate is below league average. With two attempts, the odds of success are 68%.
NE gave up 5 TD's on 6 stands at the 1 yd line. 83% success rate makes them almost nonexistent at the goal line vs the rush. With two attempts, odds of punching it in against NE are 97%.
So here's the thing: League wide, a pass play is slightly more likely to score than a run, but the difference is negligible. NE, however, was passed upon once and rushed on 6 times. Overall they gave up 6 TD's on 7 1 yd. stands. We have all of one pass play to judge their goal line defense by because they have a great secondary so teams RAN THE GODDAMN BALL 86% of the time with an 83% success rate.
NINETY SEVEN % CHANCE that handing the ball to Lynch two times in a row results in WIN.
That's just based upon crappy NE defense ALONE. Not accounting for Beast Mode being unstoppable. Even if you down grade those odds to Seattle's chances to execute, you have 68% chance of success on two straight rushes.
Those are both small sample sized, but league wide, the chances are 78%. Factor in Beast Mode and a NE defense that was like butter at the one yard line, those odds have to be about 99%.
Ninety times out of one hundred, we win the Super Bowl with two tries for Lynch to punch it in.
Passes from the 1 yd line happened 108 times for 66 TD's and 0 INTs. 61% success rate
Seattle had 2 attempts for 1 TD. 50% success rate was below average.
NE gave up 1 TD on one pass. 100%.
223 rushes led to 129 TD's and 2 Fumbles. 58% success rate. 1% disaster rate. With two tries odds of success on average is 78%.
Seattle had 7 rushes for 3TD's, 0 Fumbles. 43% success rate is below league average. With two attempts, the odds of success are 68%.
NE gave up 5 TD's on 6 stands at the 1 yd line. 83% success rate makes them almost nonexistent at the goal line vs the rush. With two attempts, odds of punching it in against NE are 97%.
So here's the thing: League wide, a pass play is slightly more likely to score than a run, but the difference is negligible. NE, however, was passed upon once and rushed on 6 times. Overall they gave up 6 TD's on 7 1 yd. stands. We have all of one pass play to judge their goal line defense by because they have a great secondary so teams RAN THE GODDAMN BALL 86% of the time with an 83% success rate.
NINETY SEVEN % CHANCE that handing the ball to Lynch two times in a row results in WIN.
That's just based upon crappy NE defense ALONE. Not accounting for Beast Mode being unstoppable. Even if you down grade those odds to Seattle's chances to execute, you have 68% chance of success on two straight rushes.
Those are both small sample sized, but league wide, the chances are 78%. Factor in Beast Mode and a NE defense that was like butter at the one yard line, those odds have to be about 99%.
Ninety times out of one hundred, we win the Super Bowl with two tries for Lynch to punch it in.