Every draft pick is a crapshoot . BTW...waiting to acquire and develop a QB last ; is assuming there is ' QB tree ' ready to harvest anytime you're ready to pick one . Dumb plan .
History suggests that it is a smart plan if you want to go to the Super Bowl in the current era.
QB is your most expensive position, and eats up your salary cap, making it hard to build a team around him, unless he is on his rookie contract. Holding on to “franchise QBs,” after their rookie contract, doesn’t seem to be a high percentage play.
The number of teams who have appeared in the Super Bowl with a QB who isn’t either on his rookie contract, or brought on to a stacked team as a free agent, or isn’t one of the 2 generationally great QB’s is vanishingly small.
Your team should be within a four-year window of competing before you draft your “QBOTF,” or ready to compete before you bring in your free-agent QB.
Looking at the last 11 Super Bowls (22 staring QB positions), there are three types of QBs who have started.
Type 1 - 13 SBs started (69%) - Either on rookie contracts, or brought in as free agents.
Type 2 - 7 SBs started (32%) - GOAT type QBs. (Brady with the Pats, and Mahomes post rookie contract.)
Type 3 - 2 SBs started (9%) - “Franchise QBs” not on their rookie contracts.
SB 48
Wilson 1 vs Manning 1
SB 49
Wilson 1 vs Brady 2
SB 50
Manning 1 vs Newton 3
SB 51
Brady 2 vs Ryan 3
SB 52
Brady 2 vs Foles (Wentz) 1
SB 53
Brady 2 vs Goff 1
SB 54
Mahomes 1* vs Garropolo 1
SB 55
Brady 1 vs Mahomes 2
SB 56
Stafford 1 vs Burrow 1
SB 57
Mahomes 2 vs Hurts 1
SB 58
Mahomes 2 vs Purdy 1
*One might argue that Mahomes should be considered a type 2 at this point, even though he technically was on his rookie contract at the time.