A really good assesment of Locks final drive vs the Eagles

[renofox]

You should have looked into the post above yours. Geno led the league in turnover worthy throws

Wow. Geno's waaaay up at the top by himself!

 

[knownone]

You should have looked into the post above yours. Geno led the league in turnover worthy throws

The real issue is how many people cite this graphic and then brutalize the math in their interpretation. If Geno's TWPs converted to INTs at a league-average rate, he'd still have 30 TDs and 16 Ints.

Here: Expected Turnovers = Turnover-Worthy Plays × Conversion Rate

 

[Maelstrom787]

Wow. Geno's waaaay up at the top by himself!

Interestingly, he's up at the top with some of the absolute best quarterbacks in the league, which isn't really what I expected when expanding that graph. Mahomes, Allen, Cousins..

 

[Rosco]

The bolded is egregiously, absolutely false and needs to be called out as such. Point blank. That is an absolute lie and is very easily verified as such. This is true whether you use his Seattle numbers, his numbers for the current year, or his numbers over his entire career (79/57 TD/INT ratio).

The claim about having "30+ interceptions if all his almost interceptions were actually intercepted" is true of the vast majority of quarterbacks.

With that necessary correction out of the way, I agree that "safe" throws aren't always the best thing for an offense.

He has 15 TDs and 9 interceptions this season. No one gives a hoot about career statistics.
The conversation is about this season.
it only takes a second to look up.

Geno Smith - Las Vegas Raiders Quarterback - ESPN

View the profile of Las Vegas Raiders Quarterback Geno Smith on ESPN. Get the latest news, live stats and game highlights.

www.espn.com

as you say EASILY VERIFIED!

 

[Rosco]

This just doesn't bear out either on film or in terms of QB stats regarding the mitigation of turnovers and/or sacks. He has some turnover worthy plays, but they all do. It isn't more than average, overall. This is a narrative from the second half of 2022 taking over, if you ask me.

Lock, on the other hand, threw multiple interceptible balls on that last drive. I understand that it ended well, but if we're going to judge process and hypothetical turnovers as harshly as we have been, we have to be able to acknowledge that and judge it with the same weight that we do Geno.

It goes both ways. You and other Geno lovers want to continually bash Lock for so called “almost picks”

 

[renofox]

I just noticed that was 2022.
x = total INTS
y = total TWP

It would probably be more useful if data was presented in % instead of totals. Not accounting for higher attempts vs. lower attempts reduces the usefulness of the data.

The most obvious use in it's current form is to show who was luckiest. The further above the trend line the luckier you are.

Geno's got himself some really good luck! Useful trait if it carries over. Has anybody read Ringworld? lol

 

[ruffENrowdy]

It goes both ways. You and other Geno lovers want to continually bash Lock for so called “almost picks”

I agree. Geno is mostly a statue and can't do anything after the game is not going his way. I'd much rather see Lock out there and see what he can do. I've had more fun watching the last two games than all season to be honest. I would say the cowboys game was fun, but those refs were horrible.

 

[Maelstrom787]

It goes both ways. You and other Geno lovers want to continually bash Lock for so called “almost picks”

I'm not bashing him. I'm saying that it wasn't a perfect performance and that it wasn't enough to supplant the current starter whose last game was a great overall performance.

"Almost picks" aren't a necessarily bad or especially avoidable thing when you're playing from behind and trying to win a game backed up to your own 8 yard line. I'm responding to a contention that Geno and Lock are equally prone to turnover-worthy throws, and disagreeing that Geno has the same predisposition.

 

[Maelstrom787]

He has 15 TDs and 9 interceptions this season. No one gives a hoot about career statistics.
The conversation is about this season.
it only takes a second to look up.

Geno Smith - Las Vegas Raiders Quarterback - ESPN

View the profile of Las Vegas Raiders Quarterback Geno Smith on ESPN. Get the latest news, live stats and game highlights.

www.espn.com

as you say EASILY VERIFIED!

If he has 15 TDs and 9 INTs this year, then he factually by YOUR OWN ADMISSION does not "average more than one interception per TD he throws."

You ever watch Geno play? Geno averages more than one interception per TD he throws.

Therefore, the above contention? Bullshit. False.

 

[DJ_CJ]

Just shows how close this competition coming into last year would have been if Lock wouldn’t have missed preseason time. Lock had some scary throws but he also hasn’t gotten the reps in practice let alone a live game. Lock never had a fair shake his entire career in Denver with the constant turnover in systems along with never being “coached up”, instead just ridiculed/blamed for everything. Lock can play. Lock 2 years ago doesn’t pull off that drive.

 

[renofox]

Just shows how close this competition coming into last year would have been if Lock wouldn’t have missed preseason time. Lock had some scary throws but he also hasn’t gotten the reps in practice let alone a live game. Lock never had a fair shake his entire career in Denver with the constant turnover in systems along with never being “coached up”, instead just ridiculed/blamed for everything. Lock can play. Lock 2 years ago doesn’t pull off that drive.

For a QB to perform to his abilities, it takes lots and lots of reps with his receivers to instinctually know how each one runs each of their routes depending on coverages and other variables.

Receivers almost never run most routes at full speed or exactly as designed. It's up to the QB to know where they'll be when the ball arrives. That knowledge only comes from reps.

That's why we were all hoping Geno would be even better this year. It didn't happen but it was a reasonable expectation.

I believe if Lock is given lots of reps he will consistently improve his gameday performances. It's almost assured he would quickly perform approximately at Geno's level. It's a possibility that he would surpass Geno's level of play. I also believe the intangibles Lock brings to the table are greater than Geno's.

I'd love to see PC take the gamble.

But he won't.

 

[IndyHawk]

One thing that impressed me with Lock was that block down
the Field..
I'm watching the replay and suddenly you see Lock pop into
the side running down there like with DK/Woolen speed to go
block.
I'm shocked we are not doing rollouts and read options when he's
in because he's sneaky fast.

 

[Maelstrom787]

One thing that impressed me with Lock was that block down
the Field..
I'm watching the replay and suddenly you see Lock pop into
the side running down there like with DK/Woolen speed to go
block.
I'm shocked we are not doing rollouts and read options when he's
in because he's sneaky fast.

That was a highlight. That's balls right there. Drew Block, baby.

 

[Ozzy]

This just doesn't bear out either on film or in terms of QB stats regarding the mitigation of turnovers and/or sacks. He has some turnover worthy plays, but they all do. It isn't more than average, overall. This is a narrative from the second half of 2022 taking over, if you ask me.

Lock, on the other hand, threw multiple interceptible balls on that last drive. I understand that it ended well, but if we're going to judge process and hypothetical turnovers as harshly as we have been, we have to be able to acknowledge that and judge it with the same weight that we do Geno.

He lead the league last year and has had multiple games with multiple turnover worthy throws. This stuff is tracked and isn’t debatable. Geno has had multiple games just like the one Lock just had right? So why are we assuming lock would do that every game but giving Geno every benefit of the doubt because he’s had some good games mixed in? Let’s concede for sake of argument the anti lock crowd is right and he would do that every game. I’d still argue like I did above that both aren’t great in this area.

I’ve watched every game this year and Geno has gotten away with plenty of throws that couldn’t been picked. I’ll admit we were spoiled by Russ so that might tilt things.

I just think it’s odd we seem to be giving Geno all the benefit of the doubt and we take any of that away with Lock. When I mentioned who played better against the Niners I was instantly met with “it’s a small sample size and not fair!” But strangely many of those same people are ready to claim lock is a turnover machine.

Bottom line I don’t think either are great in this regard and Geno was averaging almost a pick a game for a large part of the year…..not great

 

[Maelstrom787]

He lead the league last year and has had multiple games with multiple turnover worthy throws. This stuff is tracked and isn’t debatable. Geno has had multiple games just like the one Lock just had right? So why are we assuming lock would do that every game but giving Geno every benefit of the doubt because he’s had some good games mixed in? Let’s concede for sake of argument the anti lock crowd is right and he would do that every game. I’d still argue like I did above that both aren’t great in this area.

I’ve watched every game this year and Geno has gotten away with plenty of throws that couldn’t been picked. I’ll admit we were spoiled by Russ so that might tilt things.

I just think it’s odd we seem to be giving Geno all the benefit of the doubt and we take any of that away with Lock. When I mentioned who played better against the Niners I was instantly met with “it’s a small sample size and not fair!” But strangely many of those same people are ready to claim lock is a turnover machine.

Bottom line I don’t think either are great in this regard and Geno was averaging almost a pick a game for a large part of the year…..not great

I don't mean to dispute that he has a number turnover worthy throws that's closer to the top, around gunslingers like Allen and Herbert. I just think that his throws this year are at a generally higher degree of difficulty than average given the trouble they were having generating separation as a unit earlier this year. He had less excuse in 2022.

I also don't mean to necessarily criticize Lock as a player for it, I just want to make the point that I think Geno is overall better currently at mitigating turnovers with a fairly high degree of confidence, and I can't criticize Geno for his propensity for turnover-worthy throws without levying the same at Lock.

I can't get the PFF data without paying, but this was in November. His sack and fumble avoidance were well above average at that point, but that's beside the point I'm trying to make.



I just think that we should neg them for it with an equal weight, ya know? I don't see this as necessarily unacceptable in our offense this year, but I also don't think Lock's style would lend itself to an improvement in this regard. He's a gunslinger at heart. If this is one of Geno's bigger concerns, I think that Lock will be just as if not more prone to the same limits given a few of the throws against Philly.

 

[OrangeGravy]

If he has 15 TDs and 9 INTs this year, then he factually by YOUR OWN ADMISSION does not "average more than one interception per TD he throws."

Therefore, the above contention? Bullshit. False.

You're wasting your breath arguing with these morons

 

[knownone]

I don't mean to dispute that he has a number turnover worthy throws that's closer to the top, around gunslingers like Allen and Herbert. I just think that his throws this year are at a generally higher degree of difficulty than average given the trouble they were having generating separation as a unit earlier this year. He had less excuse in 2022.

I also don't mean to necessarily criticize Lock as a player for it, I just want to make the point that I think Geno is overall better currently at mitigating turnovers with a fairly high degree of confidence, and I can't criticize Geno for his propensity for turnover-worthy throws without levying the same at Lock.

I can't get the PFF data without paying, but this was in November. His sack and fumble avoidance were well above average at that point, but that's beside the point I'm trying to make.

View attachment 62671

I just think that we should neg them for it with an equal weight, ya know? I don't see this as necessarily unacceptable in our offense this year, but I also don't think Lock's style would lend itself to an improvement in this regard. He's a gunslinger at heart. If this is one of Geno's bigger concerns, I think that Lock will be just as if not more prone to the same limits given a few of the throws against Philly.

You are correct. Lock's sample size is relatively small; still, Geno is significantly better at mitigating TWP and creating big plays. Similarly, Lock's season grade is 61.3. Geno's is 78.9.

Also, it's worth mentioning that Geno is less than one TWP/Game from being below the league average. So when people talk about the eye test on Geno, and how they see the difference, it's worth keeping that in mind.

 

[Rosco]

If he has 15 TDs and 9 INTs this year, then he factually by YOUR OWN ADMISSION does not "average more than one interception per TD he throws."

Therefore, the above contention? Bullshit. False.

my bad he averages over 1 int for every 2 TD he throws. That still sucks.

 

[tonyseahawk]

You should have looked into the post above yours. Geno led the league in turnover worthy throws

Reading is clearly not in his skill set.

 

[SonicHawk]

No one can take away the beauty of the ball that was the TD.

But the rest of the drive was pure luck Lock.