manders2600":292jjfsk said:
kidhawk":292jjfsk said:
YPC isn't as good a stat to go by as one would think. Justin Forsett consistently had a high YPC average, but couldn't keep it up when given the majority of carries in any game. The fact of the matter is that teams are stacking against the run and Lynch is still averaging near nearly four and a half yards per carry. He's (I believe) the league leader in yards after contact...THIS is a real stat to consider, because where a RB is first hit will vary, but how he runs after that is where the ability lies
Unfortunately, it also speaks to the strength of the offensive line, and can be detrimental to a RBs long-term health.
Ideally, you don't want any RB to get most of their yards after contact AND have 300+ carries on the season (Lynch has 147 so far, or 21 per game, putting him on pace for 336 carries).
The Forsett point is a solid one, although this would seem to be negated by only looking at RBs with 50+ carries so far. I suppose you could further whittle it down by looking at only RBs who have 75+ or 100+.
I don't think 300+ carries is a huge number for a RB. 400+ Is, but if a RB runs the ball 20 times per game, that's 320 carries over the course of a season.
Also, you can't always blame a RB getting hit sooner on the offensive line. When a defense puts 8 men in the box, it's rare for them not to put a hit on the rB within the first yard or 2. Lynch is that special type of back who can still churn out those runs and make them 4+ yards. This is the skill you want in a RB. RB's aren't meant to last 10 years. They take lots of hits and they get that one really fat contract and then they start to decline by the end of it. We have Lynch in his prime and I have no problem with using him to carry a load.
What we need to do, is get the short - intermediate passing game going, so those linebackers and safeties don't cheat up to stop the run. This will give Lynch the chance to get some momentum going before that first contact, and when that happens, watch out