Chances for a returning superbowl champion to repeat

In the last 10 years, the returning champion has a 10% chance of winning the superbowl. A team that did not win it all the previous year has a 2.9% chance of winning. Keep this in mind when people throw around meaningless stats about the difficulty of repeating.

In the last 10 years, how many have actually done it?

New England 2004-05.

pocketprotector":1nzzhria said:

In the last 10 years, the returning champion has a 10% chance of winning the superbowl.

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Ad Hawk":1nzzhria said:

In the last 10 years, how many have actually done it?

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MizzouHawkGal":1nzzhria said:

New England 2004-05.

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One in the last ten years. Ten percent chance. I'm not very good with math. Can someone tell me if this sounds right?

Seahawk Sailor":2mhvkppu said:

pocketprotector":2mhvkppu said:

In the last 10 years, the returning champion has a 10% chance of winning the superbowl.

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Ad Hawk":2mhvkppu said:

In the last 10 years, how many have actually done it?

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MizzouHawkGal":2mhvkppu said:

New England 2004-05.

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One in the last ten years. Ten percent chance. I'm not very good with math. Can someone tell me if this sounds right?

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10% have done it, but that doesn't equal chance, I don't think.

Ad Hawk":zwqruk0w said:

Seahawk Sailor":zwqruk0w said:

pocketprotector":zwqruk0w said:

In the last 10 years, the returning champion has a 10% chance of winning the superbowl.

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Ad Hawk":zwqruk0w said:

In the last 10 years, how many have actually done it?

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MizzouHawkGal":zwqruk0w said:

New England 2004-05.

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One in the last ten years. Ten percent chance. I'm not very good with math. Can someone tell me if this sounds right?

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10% have done it, but that doesn't equal chance, I don't think.

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Yes, I agree that the OP has no idea what the difference between probability and simple division is.

What I think is funny, is that while so many bombastic pundits trumpet from the mountain tops that Seattle will not repeat because it's so difficult, a lot are picking Denver to win despite the fact that only 2 out of 47 team have won the Super Bowl after losing it (1971 Dallas Cowboys, 1972 Miami Dolphins), or San Francisco when only 3 out of 47 teams have won the Super Bowl the year after a divisional foe won the Super Bowl (1987 Washington Redskins, 1991 Washington Redskins, 1992 Dallas Cowboys). Remind me, what's harder, 8 out of 47, 3 out of 47, or 2 out of 47? :roll:

Maulbert":2u444vq3 said:

What I think is funny, is that while so many bombastic pundits trumpet from the mountain tops that Seattle will not repeat because it's so difficult, a lot are picking Denver to win despite the fact that only 2 out of 47 team have won the Super Bowl after losing it (1971 Dallas Cowboys, 1972 Miami Dolphins), or San Francisco when only 3 out of 47 teams have won the Super Bowl the year after a divisional foe won the Super Bowl (1987 Washington Redskins, 1991 Washington Redskins, 1992 Dallas Cowboys). Remind me, what's harder, 8 out of 47, 3 out of 47, or 2 out of 47? :roll:

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All of those numbers and assumptions are crap.

The NFL season is a very complex system full of dependent and independent actions by many people. It is inherently difficult to win a Super Bowl, even when things go well for you in general, because of how complicated the system is and how things can change drastically through the season.

No one can reasonably predict the the probability of anyone winning a Super Bowl, because even if we had a model we couldn't measure the initial conditions sufficiently to enter as the inputs. You can try to ballpark guess things when you have seemingly terrible teams and seemingly great teams, but it's a crapshoot.

This is not science, it's football.

Nothing better in life would be better than seeing Donkey Boy Elway and the Golden Boy/anointed one again and give them another serious beat-down to add to Elway's box of paybacks he owes the Hawks for all his past happenings with us.

Only to dream.

GO HAWKS!!!

Maulbert":iv3ilzsx said:

What I think is funny, is that while so many bombastic pundits trumpet from the mountain tops that Seattle will not repeat because it's so difficult, a lot are picking Denver to win despite the fact that only 2 out of 47 team have won the Super Bowl after losing it (1971 Dallas Cowboys, 1972 Miami Dolphins), or San Francisco when only 3 out of 47 teams have won the Super Bowl the year after a divisional foe won the Super Bowl (1987 Washington Redskins, 1991 Washington Redskins, 1992 Dallas Cowboys). Remind me, what's harder, 8 out of 47, 3 out of 47, or 2 out of 47? :roll:

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Don't you know that logic only works when it advances THEIR arguments...duh.

Logic doesn't work when you start with a false premise.

Predicting Super Bowl winner probabilities based on past winners' performance the following season is a false premise.

bmorepunk":e9i9rasb said:

Maulbert":e9i9rasb said:

What I think is funny, is that while so many bombastic pundits trumpet from the mountain tops that Seattle will not repeat because it's so difficult, a lot are picking Denver to win despite the fact that only 2 out of 47 team have won the Super Bowl after losing it (1971 Dallas Cowboys, 1972 Miami Dolphins), or San Francisco when only 3 out of 47 teams have won the Super Bowl the year after a divisional foe won the Super Bowl (1987 Washington Redskins, 1991 Washington Redskins, 1992 Dallas Cowboys). Remind me, what's harder, 8 out of 47, 3 out of 47, or 2 out of 47? :roll:

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All of those numbers and assumptions are crap.

The NFL season is a very complex system full of dependent and independent actions by many people. It is inherently difficult to win a Super Bowl, even when things go well for you in general, because of how complicated the system is and how things can change drastically through the season.

No one can reasonably predict the the probability of anyone winning a Super Bowl, because even if we had a model we couldn't measure the initial conditions sufficiently to enter as the inputs. You can try to ballpark guess things when you have seemingly terrible teams and seemingly great teams, but it's a crapshoot.

This is not science, it's football.

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I'm not denying it's not crap, but it's the same qualifiers those so-called pundits use. I'm not saying Seattle will win the Super Bowl, I'm saying that anyone who says they won't repeat simply because it's difficult to repeat, which seems to be most prognosticators overwhelming qualifier, is an idiot.

Pretty sure the only correct answer is 1/32. Just saying.

Cartire":3gnhf4no said:

Pretty sure the only correct answer is 1/32. Just saying.

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Raiders and Boys have no chance.

Correct answer is 1/30.

DTexHawk":c8qbewvs said:

Cartire":c8qbewvs said:

Pretty sure the only correct answer is 1/32. Just saying.

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Raiders and Boys have no chance.

Correct answer is 1/30.

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I remember when we only had 5 wins in a season not to long ago. Every team moves around eventually. 0-0 record for all.

I get it was a wink. But it will be more of an accomplishment when its 1/32 vs 1/30

Cartire":36trqm5b said:

Pretty sure the only correct answer is 1/32. Just saying.

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No.

bmorepunk":nrjc0n87 said:

Cartire":nrjc0n87 said:

Pretty sure the only correct answer is 1/32. Just saying.

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No.

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Please elaborate.

DTexHawk":2ckik846 said:

Cartire":2ckik846 said:

Pretty sure the only correct answer is 1/32. Just saying.

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Raiders and Boys have no chance.

Correct answer is 1/30.

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actually, the Bills, Browns, Rams, Cowboys, Giants don't either.

So now we are at 1/25 chance. I bet we can even lower these odds even more

Cartire":u2diz3vf said:

bmorepunk":u2diz3vf said:

Cartire":u2diz3vf said:

Pretty sure the only correct answer is 1/32. Just saying.

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No.

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Please elaborate.

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The NFL season is not a statistically randomized process. If it were, the probability would be 1/32. But it's not, it is indeterminate.

bmorepunk":3m2lueql said:

Cartire":3m2lueql said:

bmorepunk":3m2lueql said:

Cartire":3m2lueql said:

Pretty sure the only correct answer is 1/32. Just saying.

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No.

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Please elaborate.

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The NFL season is not a statistically randomized process. If it were, the probability would be 1/32. But it's not, it is indeterminate.

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You should write in and tell Football Outsiders about this. They've been doing probabilistic odds based off DVOA for awhile, and I'm sure they would appreciate it if you told them they're wasting their time.