Chances for a returning superbowl champion to repeat

[hawkfan68]

The NFL season is not a statistically randomized process. If it were, the probability would be 1/32. But it's not, it is indeterminate.

Actually, at the start of the season. IT is 1/32. All teams are considered equal at this point, records are even across the board. No single schedule is technically harder yet. Analysis utilize past seasons for predicting strength of schedule, along with past personal stats and observations.

But currently, at the start of the 2014 season, all teams are even. Regardless if we assume the Raiders will suck again or what not.

As of right now, its 1/32.[/quote]

I agree with this. To take this a step further, as of now all NFL teams have a equal chance of picking first in 2015 NFL draft too.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

The NFL season is not a statistically randomized process. If it were, the probability would be 1/32. But it's not, it is indeterminate.

Actually, at the start of the season. IT is 1/32. All teams are considered equal at this point, records are even across the board. No single schedule is technically harder yet. Analysis utilize past seasons for predicting strength of schedule, along with past personal stats and observations.

But currently, at the start of the 2014 season, all teams are even. Regardless if we assume the Raiders will suck again or what not.

As of right now, its 1/32.

I agree with this. To take this a step further, as of now all NFL teams have a equal chance of picking first in 2015 NFL draft too.[/quote]
Correct. And a really good site to actually track the probability week to week (game to game) of making the playoffs/championship game(s) of all the major sports is PlayoffStatus.com...http://www.playoffstatus.com/

Notice how EVERYBODY is totally even? After the game check back and you will see the probabilities shift.