Why Pete Carroll didn't allow SF Score a TD

[jdblack]

Let's also not forget that by allowing SF to run more running plays, it increases the chances that they will fumble or we will force a fumble. Or that maybe they will get a penalty and push them back to a lower percentage field goal...remember no FG = a win for us. You can't just look at the odds of scoring a TD with over a minute left vs getting a field goal with less than 30 seconds, because there's more to it than that.

No one is forgetting that. Folks who do that sort of analysis showed their calculations at the link below, and it includes the odds of fumbles/blocked FGs.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/12 ... ed-td.html

With fumble & and field goal taken into account the Seahawks had double the odds of winning by letting them score. Their numbers might be a little off & might be leaving out small things, but 10-15% is a lot of ground to make up.

 

[Starrman44]

3rd and 7. Our D did exactly what Carroll was hoping. They got the Niners in 3rd and long. The problem was thy let Kap run for 8 yards on 3rd and 7. Otherwise the Offense would have gotten the ball back with 2 minutes left and only needing a field goal.

If Carroll lets SF score a touchdown, we have to score a touchdown on a day that touchdowns were hard to come by.

Honestly, I think he called it right. He has the best D in the league and put it in their hands. It worked when he put his trust in them vs the Rams. The D let him down by 1 yard. I betcha Russell and the entire sideline had no doubt that the D would hold them on that third down.

For me, this topic that's been swirling around of "shoulda let them score" is such a non-issue. They have the best D in the league, you gotta figure they could hold them without a first down right there.

 

[DavidSeven]

As I mentioned in the other thread on this topic, the Cardinals quit on Ken Whisenhunt last year after he ordered his prideful D to let an opposing team score. The opposing RB ended up kneeling at the 1, and they lost anyway. Pete Carroll ain't about that life. Always compete.

And if you don't believe the Cardinals quit on Whisenhunt, guess what happened the very next week? 0-58 in Seattle.

 

[Marvin49]

This. Gore went down intentionally.

Yep. Gore is a smart player. (yet another reason the Wonderlic is meaningless: Gore is very, very smart on the field but according to the Wonderlic he's basically developmentally disabled).

The problem with letting a team score a TD rather than milking clock and taking the field goal is that a smart team will not score and let the clock rundown more before then taking the score. It ends up being the difference between having 20 seconds to win with a field and having 45 seconds or so to need a TD to win.

He's badly dislexic. I think he only scored like a 6 or something on the wonderlic.

Greg Roman has stated tho that Frank is one of the smartest players he's ever been around from a football sense. He always understands the situation and he learns QUICKLY any concept that's put before him...and considering the number of OCs he's been through, that's a good thing. They have also sought his opinion in the past on personnel.

As for the topic at hand, I can understand the argument both ways. Being a 49er fan I was really nervous because I knew the niners have a rookie longsnapper.

 

[kearly]

If, heaven forbid, the Seahawks face the same situation in the Super Bowl, I hope Pete orders his defense to pick up that RB and carry him over the goal line whether he likes it or not. Give Wilson 2+ minutes with a potential TD to win scenario and I like our chances a hell of a lot more than banking on a blocked kick.

But whatever, he didn't do it. Sounds like he was unaware of the percentages. He decided to stay true to his principles, and if Seattle beats the Giants (pretty likely) then it will be almost as if the SF game never happened from a standings perspective.

 

[Marvin49]

If, heaven forbid, the Seahawks face the same situation in the Super Bowl, I hope Pete orders his defense to pick up that RB and carry him over the goal line whether he likes it or not. Give Wilson 2+ minutes with a potential TD to win scenario and I like our chances a hell of a lot more than banking on a blocked kick.

But whatever, he didn't do it. Sounds like he was unaware of the percentages. He decided to stay true to his principles, and if Seattle beats the Giants (pretty likely) then it will be almost as if the SF game never happened from a standings perspective.

Hell...if they just win 2 of the last 3 it'll be like that. New Orleans ain't gonna catch them. The only real drama left here is who gets what seed from 3-6.

 

[jdblack]

For me, this topic that's been swirling around of "shoulda let them score" is such a non-issue.

So, the play after SF got the 1st down doesn't matter because our D shouldn't have let them get the 1st down? :th2thumbs:

FWIW I think people talk about coaching decisions more so than player's decisions because we like to feel involved, and it is easier to put ourselves in coaches' shoes. It is actually realistic that, for that one play, many of us would have performed better than the real NFL coaches. That would never be the case with players.

 

[brendonkuhn]

None of this matters if we just stop Kaep from running for a first down on 3rd and 7, that was the play of the game. Much bigger than Gore's 50+ yard run. You stop them there. You have over 2 minutes to get a FG. It's too bad the defense didn't come through. that was the same type of play Alex Smith used against the Saints IIRC in 2011 (he ran for a TD) on their way to the NFC title game.

What do you mean none of this matters? So once you give up a critical play, you just stop game planning altogether? It sucks they gave up the KAep run, but once they did you strategize how to best have a chance at winning from there.

 

[Starrman44]

For me, this topic that's been swirling around of "shoulda let them score" is such a non-issue.

So, the play after SF got the 1st down doesn't matter because our D shouldn't have let them get the 1st down? :th2thumbs:

FWIW I think people talk about coaching decisions more so than player's decisions because we like to feel involved, and it is easier to put ourselves in coaches' shoes. It is actually realistic that, for that one play, many of us would have performed better than the real NFL coaches. That would never be the case with players.

Sorry, I didn't realize that the conversation was limited to post 1st down (Kap's first down, to be specific). I guess I never considered that the Niners would just willingly run into the end zone for the score. I thought they were basically just trying to run the clock down and kick a field goal since we didn't have any Time-outs. Just didn't occur to me, that's why I thought we were talking about the sequence after Gore's run and prior to Kap getting a 1st down.

Do you actually think that SF would have just run into the end zone on the first play after Kap got a 1st? That is pretty interesting. I would have been all for that.

 

[Hasselbeck]

You are also assuming that San Fran would take the free score. San Fran can crunch the numbers too.

Thank you.

The 49ers aren't the computer on Madden. They knew the situation.

 

[Hasselbeck]

3rd and 7. Our D did exactly what Carroll was hoping. They got the Niners in 3rd and long. The problem was thy let Kap run for 8 yards on 3rd and 7. Otherwise the Offense would have gotten the ball back with 2 minutes left and only needing a field goal.

What's so frustrating about that play was it was easily predictable too. The moment they came out in Shotgun-Empty, I knew they were running Kaep.. especially since they did that earlier in the game.

 

[Starrman44]

3rd and 7. Our D did exactly what Carroll was hoping. They got the Niners in 3rd and long. The problem was thy let Kap run for 8 yards on 3rd and 7. Otherwise the Offense would have gotten the ball back with 2 minutes left and only needing a field goal.

What's so frustrating about that play was it was easily predictable too. The moment they came out in Shotgun-Empty, I knew they were running Kaep.. especially since they did that earlier in the game.

Yep. I don't think Harbaugh trusts Kap's decision making to throw in that situation in a high stakes game. I couldn't believe that we let him get 8 yards.

 

[jdblack]

Sorry, I didn't realize that the conversation was limited to post 1st down (Kap's first down, to be specific).

No worries. You're absolutely right that prior to the first down there's no reason to give them a TD. We'd have had 2+ minutes to get into field goal range while using 4 downs. With Wilson at the helm I think we succeed more often than not.

 

[billbird2111]

I would never let the other team score . Tony Romo botched snap is a good example

I don't understand why Gore still wasn't ruled out of bounds. Yea he fell inbounds but then proceeded to roll out of bounds before anyone touched him ?

If anyone can explain that too me it would be great

PS - I don't think it changed the outcome nor Do I think us losing by 2 Pts was a bad thing .

When you're down, you're down. It doesn't matter where you roll after the knee hits the ground. It's the same reason why touchdowns don't count if a player rolls into the endzone AFTER the knee has hit the ground. Once it hits -- you're done.

Think of the "ground can't cause a fumble" rule.

It's the second straight year where the game in Candlemistake Park hinged on ONE play. Both games have been really close. Yet -- both games in Seattle have been blowouts. Your team marches all over us.

If there is a rematch, and it is the NFC Title game, our only hope is that we've been there before and the Seahawks haven't. That's not much hope to hold out -- but it's the only thing we have going for us.

Oh -- and another thing? Somehow, someway, this team has gotten into CK7's head. He saves up and plays his worst game of the year against Seattle. I just cannot understand it.

Congrats on winning the division. I'm positive that you'll be back to your winning ways this weekend.

 

[RiverDog]

Those of you that advocate allowing the Niners to score a TD, I want to ask you one question:

Did you watch our playoff game a few years ago with the Cowboys?

 

[MidwestHawker]

You are also assuming that San Fran would take the free score. San Fran can crunch the numbers too.

Thank you.

The 49ers aren't the computer on Madden. They knew the situation.

Harbaugh said on the radio in SF yesterday or Monday that they would have taken the TD if Seattle had allowed it.

 

[DavidSeven]

You are also assuming that San Fran would take the free score. San Fran can crunch the numbers too.

Thank you.

The 49ers aren't the computer on Madden. They knew the situation.

Harbaugh said on the radio in SF yesterday or Monday that they would have taken the TD if Seattle had allowed it.

I believe the opposite of anything Harbaugh willingly tells the media in regard to game strategy.

 

[MidwestHawker]

You are also assuming that San Fran would take the free score. San Fran can crunch the numbers too.

Thank you.

The 49ers aren't the computer on Madden. They knew the situation.

Harbaugh said on the radio in SF yesterday or Monday that they would have taken the TD if Seattle had allowed it.

I believe the opposite of anything Harbaugh willingly tells the media in regard to game strategy.

That's fair I suppose.

 

[jdblack]

Those of you that advocate allowing the Niners to score a TD, I want to ask you one question:

Did you watch our playoff game a few years ago with the Cowboys?

I have seen 22 beat AA pre-flop. That doesn't mean I'm betting on 22 next time I see it. :34853_doh:

 

[DavidSeven]

Those of you that advocate allowing the Niners to score a TD, I want to ask you one question:

Did you watch our playoff game a few years ago with the Cowboys?

I have seen 22 beat AA pre-flop. That doesn't mean I'm betting on 22 next time I see it. :34853_doh:

You might if you were short stacked with only two or three blinds left and didn't know the other guy's hand or if he'd even call.