What are our playoff clinching scenarios the next 2 weeks?

[hawknation2017]

 

[johnnyfever]

Less than 10%, and that is IF we win both our games, soooo....

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Better than Zero chance

 

[hawknation2017]

Less than 10%, and that is IF we win both our games, soooo....

If the Seahawks beat Dallas & Arizona, the probability increases to about 1/3 that they make the playoffs.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/

If Detroit loses a game, then it becomes almost a true coin flip: 51%.

Not good odds, unless all those things magically happen, but . . . you're telling me there's a chance!

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Well, nobody gives them a chance on Sunday. Love it.

 

[johnnyfever]

Less than 10%, and that is IF we win both our games, soooo....

I'll explain.

If we give all games a 50/50 chance, the math works out by multiplying each game percentage:

Falcons need to lose 2, so 50%x50%=25%
(.50x.50=.25)

Also, lions need to lose 1 so .25x.50=.125

Then we need to win against Dallas so .125x.50=.0625

Then, we need to win against the cards so .0625x.50=.031 or 3.1%

We have a 3.1% chance figuring it at 50/50

Now, you could get more precise by using other metrics like Vegas betting line for example to more accurately develop the percentages, but realistically, it would only change the outcome 1 or 2 percent either way.

As you can see, it is HIGHLY unlikely we make the playoffs.

Doesn't help that we only really played well in 2 or 3 games this year. And by well I mean that we played games that could have won in a playoff atmosphere.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

But, still NOT - OUT - OF - IT

Enjoy the ride, you never know.

 

[hawknation2017]

Now, you could get more precise by using other metrics like Vegas betting line for example to more accurately develop the percentages, but realistically, it would only change the outcome 1 or 2 percent either way.

FiveThirtyEight's Elo formula does all the advanced math for us. If the Seahawks beat Dallas & Arizona, their odds of making the playoffs improve to about 34%. If the Seahawks win those games & Detroit loses a game, then their odds of making the playoffs improve to 51%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/

 

[johnnyfever]

Now, you could get more precise by using other metrics like Vegas betting line for example to more accurately develop the percentages, but realistically, it would only change the outcome 1 or 2 percent either way.

FiveThirtyEight's Elo formula does all the advanced math for us. If the Seahawks beat Dallas & Arizona, their odds of making the playoffs improve to about 34%. If the Seahawks win those games & Detroit loses a game, then their odds of making the playoffs improve to 51%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/

What about the falcons needing to lose 2?

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Ok, we get it, they are not gonna' make the playoffs, no way no how. Better? :lol:

 

[johnnyfever]

The only real "advanced" math is the per game win/loss probabilities as you could really get into a lot of variables. Health, record, matchups (dvoa etc), weather, is jimbob in Atlanta wearing his luck underwear, things like that.

 

[hawknation2017]

Now, you could get more precise by using other metrics like Vegas betting line for example to more accurately develop the percentages, but realistically, it would only change the outcome 1 or 2 percent either way.

FiveThirtyEight's Elo formula does all the advanced math for us. If the Seahawks beat Dallas & Arizona, their odds of making the playoffs improve to about 34%. If the Seahawks win those games & Detroit loses a game, then their odds of making the playoffs improve to 51%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/

What about the falcons needing to lose 2?

Falcons or Saints or Panthers. There is a 51% likelihood that this will happen, according to Elo's advanced predictions.

If all the "if's" happen above (Seahawks beat Dallas & Arizona, plus Detroit loses a game), the Seahawks odds of making the playoffs are 51%.

To continue down this pipedream, we could add another conditional with New Orleans beating Atlanta, which would improve the Seahawks' playoff odds to a little over 54%. On the other hand, if Atlanta upsets New Orleans, then the odds decrease to 45% (a nearly -10% swing).

The only real "advanced" math is the per game win/loss probabilities as you could really get into a lot of variables. Health, record, matchups (dvoa etc), weather, is jimbob in Atlanta wearing his luck underwear, things like that.

Elo only uses win/loss probabilities (based on points) and home field advantages.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Or we could just win on Sunday and see what happens :229031_shrug:

 

[johnnyfever]

Thats, what I'm saying, in the "win/loss" probabilities, who comes up with those, and what metrics are being used to do so?

 

[hawknation2017]

Or we could just win on Sunday and see what happens :229031_shrug:

But now I'm too deep into the pipedream to look back.

The highest odds the Seahawks could have of making the playoffs after Sunday would be 64%.

That would require (1) a Seahawks win over Dallas, (2) a Detroit loss at Cincinnati, (3) a Carolina loss to Tampa Bay, and (4) an Atlanta loss at New Orleans.

:snack:

 

[hawknation2017]

Thats, what I'm saying, in the "win/loss" probabilities, who comes up with those, and what metrics are being used to do so?

They essentially input point differential into the Elo chess formula.

That gives Seattle a 39% chance to beat Dallas and a 74% chance to beat Arizona.

New Orleans has a 59% chance of beating Atlanta at home.

Detroit loses to Cincinnati in 40% of Elo scenarios.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Well, playoffs start on Sunday, no other way to look at it.

 

[johnnyfever]

Or we could just win on Sunday and see what happens :229031_shrug:

But now I'm too deep into the pipedream to look back.

The highest odds the Seahawks could have of making the playoffs after Sunday would be 64%.

That would require (1) a Seahawks win over Dallas, (2) a Detroit loss at Cincinnati, (3) a Carolina loss to Tampa Bay, and (4) an Atlanta loss at New Orleans.

:snack:

If the above happened, then we would need a win at cards for us and a falcons loss. Mathematically there is no way that probability is at 64%, not to mention for the above to happen is only at a 12.5% chance at best. It is realistically lower because Panthers are favored over Tampa and the lions are favored over over the Bengals.

If you see this as incorrect, please post your calculations.

 

[hawknation2017]

Or we could just win on Sunday and see what happens :229031_shrug:

But now I'm too deep into the pipedream to look back.

The highest odds the Seahawks could have of making the playoffs after Sunday would be 64%.

That would require (1) a Seahawks win over Dallas, (2) a Detroit loss at Cincinnati, (3) a Carolina loss to Tampa Bay, and (4) an Atlanta loss at New Orleans.

:snack:

If the above happened, then we would need a win at cards for us and a falcons loss. Mathematically there is no way that probability is at 64%, not to mention for the above to happen is only at a 12.5% chance.

If the above four independent events all occurred, then the Falcons vs. Panthers game would become all-but irrelevant (except in the rare event of a tie). The loser of that game would be left out if the Seahawks beat Arizona.

Or you could just examine the link yourself? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/

:2thumbs:

 

[johnnyfever]

Well, playoffs start on Sunday, no other way to look at it.

Playoffs started last Sunday, we just changed it to a double elimination bracket and even then don't have any say if the falcons win Sunday.