hawknation2017
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Less than 10%, and that is IF we win both our games, soooo....hawknation2017":2anf1mnh said:
johnnyfever":26f0kd3k said:Less than 10%, and that is IF we win both our games, soooo....hawknation2017":26f0kd3k said:
I'll explain.johnnyfever":w901lgoy said:Less than 10%, and that is IF we win both our games, soooo....hawknation2017":w901lgoy said:
johnnyfever":1zr7w89u said:Now, you could get more precise by using other metrics like Vegas betting line for example to more accurately develop the percentages, but realistically, it would only change the outcome 1 or 2 percent either way.
hawknation2017":c81otafs said:johnnyfever":c81otafs said:Now, you could get more precise by using other metrics like Vegas betting line for example to more accurately develop the percentages, but realistically, it would only change the outcome 1 or 2 percent either way.
FiveThirtyEight's Elo formula does all the advanced math for us. If the Seahawks beat Dallas & Arizona, their odds of making the playoffs improve to about 34%. If the Seahawks win those games & Detroit loses a game, then their odds of making the playoffs improve to 51%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/
johnnyfever":h5wrsxaq said:hawknation2017":h5wrsxaq said:johnnyfever":h5wrsxaq said:Now, you could get more precise by using other metrics like Vegas betting line for example to more accurately develop the percentages, but realistically, it would only change the outcome 1 or 2 percent either way.
FiveThirtyEight's Elo formula does all the advanced math for us. If the Seahawks beat Dallas & Arizona, their odds of making the playoffs improve to about 34%. If the Seahawks win those games & Detroit loses a game, then their odds of making the playoffs improve to 51%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/
What about the falcons needing to lose 2?
johnnyfever":h5wrsxaq said:The only real "advanced" math is the per game win/loss probabilities as you could really get into a lot of variables. Health, record, matchups (dvoa etc), weather, is jimbob in Atlanta wearing his luck underwear, things like that.
SoulfishHawk":2xjhuln8 said:Or we could just win on Sunday and see what happens :229031_shrug:
johnnyfever":2nq88i76 said:Thats, what I'm saying, in the "win/loss" probabilities, who comes up with those, and what metrics are being used to do so?
hawknation2017":bjdhtodo said:SoulfishHawk":bjdhtodo said:Or we could just win on Sunday and see what happens :229031_shrug:
But now I'm too deep into the pipedream to look back.
The highest odds the Seahawks could have of making the playoffs after Sunday would be 64%.
That would require (1) a Seahawks win over Dallas, (2) a Detroit loss at Cincinnati, (3) a Carolina loss to Tampa Bay, and (4) an Atlanta loss at New Orleans.
:snack:
johnnyfever":gl8cs8sy said:hawknation2017":gl8cs8sy said:SoulfishHawk":gl8cs8sy said:Or we could just win on Sunday and see what happens :229031_shrug:
But now I'm too deep into the pipedream to look back.
The highest odds the Seahawks could have of making the playoffs after Sunday would be 64%.
That would require (1) a Seahawks win over Dallas, (2) a Detroit loss at Cincinnati, (3) a Carolina loss to Tampa Bay, and (4) an Atlanta loss at New Orleans.
:snack:
If the above happened, then we would need a win at cards for us and a falcons loss. Mathematically there is no way that probability is at 64%, not to mention for the above to happen is only at a 12.5% chance.
Playoffs started last Sunday, we just changed it to a double elimination bracket and even then don't have any say if the falcons win Sunday.SoulfishHawk":19pw6ton said:Well, playoffs start on Sunday, no other way to look at it.