Tiebreaker Procedures

[kidhawk]

Since it’s being brought up in multiple threads, this link is the official tie breaking procedures


https://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

 

[sutz]

Yeah, it's kind of a strange season with so many teams going head to head in the tiebreakers at the top of the standings.

Usually, you see that kind of logjam in the 9-7 range.

 

[Cyrus12]

It was reported on seahawk gsmeday if Rams beat niners and hawks win next week then the last game wont matter.

 

[Uncle Si]

It was reported on seahawk gsmeday if Rams beat niners and hawks win next week then the last game wont matter.

This is correct, according to the playoff machine as well.

Not only that, but if the Saints lose one of their last 3, it won't matter there as well, as long as Green Bay wins 1 of their next 2

 

[sutz]

It was reported on seahawk gsmeday if Rams beat niners and hawks win next week then the last game wont matter.

I think it might not matter for the Div crown, but probably does matter for seeding. I may be wrong, the the Pack and the Saints are in play for the #1/2 seeds also.

 

[AlaskaHAWK]

It will certainly matter for seeding.

 

[Barakas]

It was reported on seahawk gsmeday if Rams beat niners and hawks win next week then the last game wont matter.

I think the ESPN Playoff Machine is broken and has us always winning the tie breaker in common games. I don't think this is accurate. If the Rams beat the 49ers and we beat the Cards and then the 49ers beat us in Week 17 then our common game record is the same.

So it would go down to Strength of Victory tiebreaker and adds up all of the victories of teams you have beat. The Seahawks and 49ers share victories over many of the same teams so what we need to pay attention to are the records of the Falcons, Vikings, and Eagles for Seahawks and Saints, Redskins, and Packers for the 49ers.

In Week 15, before the Saints have played, our SOV advantage is 22 games won for the Seahawks teams versus 24 for the 49ers (25 if the Saints win tomorrow night).

So we need to be rooting for the Falcons, Vikings, and Eagles to get wins next week and the Saints, Redskins, and Packers to get losses for Week 17 to truly not matter.

I think...of course I could be wrong on all of this too!!!

 

[CallMeADawg]

It was reported on seahawk gsmeday if Rams beat niners and hawks win next week then the last game wont matter.

This is correct, according to the playoff machine as well.

Not only that, but if the Saints lose one of their last 3, it won't matter there as well, as long as Green Bay wins 1 of their next 2

Well the playoff machine quotes that we would win on better win percentage in common games, but in this scenario we would both be 10-4 in common games.

Losses for them:
Seahawks
Rams
Ravens
Falcons

Losses for Seahawks:
Saints
49ers
Ravens
Rams

Does Seattle win the tie-breaker since thier loss to the Saints is to a stronger team than the 49ers loss to the Falcons?

 

[Barakas]

This doesn't work quite the same as the ESPN Playoff Machine but you can still playaround with wins and losses. This site reinforces to me that the ESPN Playoff Machine is bugged when it comes to the Common Victory tiebreaker.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/

 

[Mad Dog]

You can guarantee that if we get the division with a Hawks win and a SF loss, that the exact opposite will happen. It's the NFL. It's going to come down to drama on Sunday night week 17. Book it.

 

[JonRud]

It was reported on seahawk gsmeday if Rams beat niners and hawks win next week then the last game wont matter.

I think the ESPN Playoff Machine is broken and has us always winning the tie breaker in common games. I don't think this is accurate. If the Rams beat the 49ers and we beat the Cards and then the 49ers beat us in Week 17 then our common game record is the same.

So it would go down to Strength of Victory tiebreaker and adds up all of the victories of teams you have beat. The Seahawks and 49ers share victories over many of the same teams so what we need to pay attention to are the records of the Falcons, Vikings, and Eagles for Seahawks and Saints, Redskins, and Packers for the 49ers.

In Week 15, before the Saints have played, our SOV advantage is 22 games won for the Seahawks teams versus 24 for the 49ers (25 if the Saints win tomorrow night).

So we need to be rooting for the Falcons, Vikings, and Eagles to get wins next week and the Saints, Redskins, and Packers to get losses for Week 17 to truly not matter.

I think...of course I could be wrong on all of this too!!!

I calculated this manually myself and I am in total agreement with you. it's very unlikely the Hawks can win the SOV tiebreaker and therefore win the West without beating SF.

Here is what is left. as you say, the Hawks SOV advantage is 22 wins.
Falcons - vs. Jags, at Bucs
Vikings - vs. Packers, at Bears
Eagles - vs Cowboys, at Giants

The 49ers SOV is currently 24 wins. their remaining games that matter are:
Saints - vs. Colts, at Titans, at Panthers
Redskins - vs. Giants, at Cowboys
Packers - at Vikings, at Lions

I think it's unlikely the Hawks are going to win the SOV tiebreaker, so I think no matter what they have to beat SF in Week 17 to win the division.

 

[kidhawk]

It was reported on seahawk gsmeday if Rams beat niners and hawks win next week then the last game wont matter.

I think the ESPN Playoff Machine is broken and has us always winning the tie breaker in common games. I don't think this is accurate. If the Rams beat the 49ers and we beat the Cards and then the 49ers beat us in Week 17 then our common game record is the same.

So it would go down to Strength of Victory tiebreaker and adds up all of the victories of teams you have beat. The Seahawks and 49ers share victories over many of the same teams so what we need to pay attention to are the records of the Falcons, Vikings, and Eagles for Seahawks and Saints, Redskins, and Packers for the 49ers.

In Week 15, before the Saints have played, our SOV advantage is 22 games won for the Seahawks teams versus 24 for the 49ers (25 if the Saints win tomorrow night).

So we need to be rooting for the Falcons, Vikings, and Eagles to get wins next week and the Saints, Redskins, and Packers to get losses for Week 17 to truly not matter.

I think...of course I could be wrong on all of this too!!!

I calculated this manually myself and I am in total agreement with you. it's very unlikely the Hawks can win the SOV tiebreaker and therefore win the West without beating SF.

Here is what is left. as you say, the Hawks SOV advantage is 22 wins.
Falcons - vs. Jags, at Bucs
Vikings - vs. Packers, at Bears
Eagles - vs Cowboys, at Giants

The 49ers SOV is currently 24 wins. their remaining games that matter are:
Saints - vs. Colts, at Titans, at Panthers
Redskins - vs. Giants, at Cowboys
Packers - at Vikings, at Lions

I think it's unlikely the Hawks are going to win the SOV tiebreaker, so I think no matter what they have to beat SF in Week 17 to win the division.

So basically we need teams like Minnesota philly and Atlanta to win and Green Bay Washington and LA Rams to lose as those are the variables in the SOV. Is that right? Obviously it’s preferable to win either way

 

[JonRud]

we would want the Falcons, Vikings and Eagles to win all their games, and the Saints, Redskins and Packers to lose. The Rams don't matter as the Hawks and 49ers would both be 1-1 vs. the Rams if the Rams beat SF on Saturday.

all of this only matters if the Rams can win in SF on Saturday and the Hawks beat the Cards.

if either of those does not happen - it's just the winner in Week 17 that wins the division.

 

[bestfightstory]

SAINTS not Rams.


Somebody wrote it wrong in the other thread and evidently didn’t proofread it.


The Niners beat the Saints, whom we lost to.

 

[kidhawk]

That’s right I was thinking ahead but forgetting the scenario has the niners losing to the rams

Makes for an interesting week in the NFC next week

 

[HawkRiderFan]

Due to the loss to the Saints we need a 3 way tie don’t we. So assuming the Saints win tomorrow we may need the Packers to win Monday night depending on how Sunday goes.

 

[kidhawk]

Due to the loss to the Saints we need a 3 way tie don’t we. So assuming the Saints win tomorrow we may need the Packers to win Monday night depending on how Sunday goes.

That’s best for the conference but Minnesota wining helps our SOV if we end the season tied for the division.

There are so many scenarios right now it just really depends on what you think we will do. If we win out not much else matters as we get a bye be it a 1 or 2 seed

 

[Polaris]

Due to the loss to the Saints we need a 3 way tie don’t we. So assuming the Saints win tomorrow we may need the Packers to win Monday night depending on how Sunday goes.

That’s best for the conference but Minnesota wining helps our SOV if we end the season tied for the division.

There are so many scenarios right now it just really depends on what you think we will do. If we win out not much else matters as we get a bye be it a 1 or 2 seed

This. Seattle controls it's own destiny at least for the #2 seed. Win and be in. That's really all we need to know.

 

[HawkRiderFan]

Due to the loss to the Saints we need a 3 way tie don’t we. So assuming the Saints win tomorrow we may need the Packers to win Monday night depending on how Sunday goes.

That’s best for the conference but Minnesota wining helps our SOV if we end the season tied for the division.

There are so many scenarios right now it just really depends on what you think we will do. If we win out not much else matters as we get a bye be it a 1 or 2 seed

Thanks. I’m glad that game is Monday night so we will know all the other results.

 

[Scorpion05]

Did some simulations on 538 and basically, if the Rams beat Niners.... we just need the Saints, Packers, and Redskins to lose a combined 4 games. And for the Eagles and Vikings to split.

Or, you need the Saints, Packers, and Redskins to lose a combined 3 games, and for the Eagles and Vikings to win out

Both are very possible. Either way, I'm just glad the team is in this position. We need to treat Week 17 seriously regardless.