Third and Goal Sports Seattle Seahawks Season Preview

[ThirdandGoal]

Lynch had 315 carries in 2012, I could see it going to 275 or so if he plays 16 games but not much lower than that. I look at rotoworld projections quite often. They have Lynch at 278, Turbin at 60, and Michael at 58. Definitely seems like the 1-2-3 punch you guys expected more than the 1-2 punch I initially projected.

 

[HawkAroundTheClock]

Good stuff. Well-documented overview, supported with solid detail and context.

One little thing:

Offense: The Seahawks offense has one of the best running games in the league in 2012.

"has" should be "had"

And when I read this:

Defense: In 2012 the Seahawks had the best scoring defense by a wide margin, allowing only 15.3 points per game.

I expected the next line to read: "The next best team, the 49ers, gave up 17.1 ppg, and the league median was around 22." or something like that.

 

[ThirdandGoal]

Thanks. Can definitely add a little more context to it to show how absolutely dominant the defense was last year.

 

[sutz]

I do like the attention given to Michael, but thing is, Turbin is still the better back. He averaged either 4.4 or 4.6 ypc last year, is very good out of the backfield, and is every bit as fast as Michael is (both ran a 4.4 forty). Michael is the more explosive runner, and might be harder to bring down, but right now, from what our RB coach has said, Turbin is farther ahead in the offense and in pass protection.

We could also see more offensive snaps in 2013, which would probably equate to more rushing attempts. If this team doesn't improve on offense, and merely picks up where it left off, we're going to be running the ball a lot to close out games. I could see Lynch's carries get down to the 280ish area while Turbin's and Michael's could both be near 100.

Overall a pretty good write up. I don't see anything you really missed out on.

I think you might see Lynch's carries reduced this year, and both turbin and michael will get plenty of carries, it was clear that Lynch either was wore down, or injured in that ATL game. I see the coaching staff tapering off a bit on his carries saving him for the latter part of the season and playoffs. Just speculation though on my part.

I find this scenario highly likely. We have the depth. We should use it.

 

[kearly]

My thoughts:

#1: Going to a Seahawks message board for quality control is a very good idea. If I was writing an article on Browns or Bills, I'd probably swing by a fan forum and have them iron out the details for me. You came to the right place.

#2: Seattle's offense is set and your starter list looks correct. I could see a few of our backup lineman playing themselves into a starting job (like Sweezy last year), but that has yet to be determined officially.

#3: The defense is far less settled particularly at LB and DT. I think our starting 3-tech in week 1 will probably be Jesse Williams, unless he continues to look like a total mess out there. Williams hasn't looked very good, but Pete values run defense first and foremost on early downs and Williams is the only 3-tech we have that's genuinely run oriented, so I think it's his job to lose right now. The next best bet would be Michael Bennett, who looks poised for a monster season as a pass rusher and who graded very well in run defense (PFF) last season.

#4: In the notable draft picks section, I'd also add UDFA G/T Alvin Bailey. He's playing at an extremely high level for a rookie and if he keeps it up I'm sure Carroll will find a place for him to start in week 1. Bailey's play has been so good that it's caught some national attention among league observers.

#5: I wouldn't put Harvin in the losses column. He's expected to make a return this season around the same time that Michael Crabtree will return for the 49ers.

#6: Replace SAM LB Malcolm Smith with Bruce Irvin / O'Brien Schofield. The week 1 starter at SAM will almost certainly be Schofield, and Irvin will likely take over from week 5 onward. Smith is a solid NFL linebacker, but is very much on the bubble to even make the roster as the Seahawks are insanely deep at that position right now.

#7: Semantics. Wilson was more than "solid" last season.

#8: Mentioning scoring offense kind of misses the point slightly. The Seahawks are not about scoring, they are about winning through control (shortening the game by running the ball, winning the turnover battle, etc). The 49ers are the same. Seattle was 9th in scoring, but were very nearly 1st in point differential despite a slow start to the season. I'd have to look it up to be sure, but I'm guessing Seattle's points per drive was probably the best in the NFL, at least in the 2nd half of last season. Their offense finished #1 in Football Outsiders efficiency rankings, and that figure even includes the first half of the year when they were scoring just ~17 points a game.

#9: As noted by others, Seattle has five 10am starts, not four. Unfortunately.

 

[hawk79]

If they are going to be a championship team, winning those 10 AM games will go along way in them asserting themselves.

 

[themunn]

Do you think Turbin is going to be a factor this year? Everything I have read has pointed to the fact that Carroll and the Seahawks loves Michael. Turbin had 80 carries as the backup last year. If Michael ends up as the #2 there, which I think he will, Turbin might be relegated to the 23 carries Leon Washington has as the 3rd RB last year.

the key there though is that Washington flat out isn't a great running back. As a 3rd down kinda guy you expect a high ypc (since he's more likely to be facing defenses expecting the pass), yet his 3.6 yards per carry last year stunk (and has been the case for his entire Seattle career). As a result, he simply didn't get carries because he couldn't do much with them.
Furthermore, what we'll see is Lynch's carries drop significantly this season, from 315 to maybe 250 so that he can be fresh in the playoffs. We'll probably run the ball just as much this year (over 400 rushes), possibly more if we can get into the lead more often (10 games last year finished with a margin of 7 or less points), those 150 carries have to go somewhere.

 

[oldhawkfan]

Only time will tell, but I am done doubting Russell Wilson.

I forget that there were actually those that doubted Russell Wilson. I was never in the doubting camp. Amazing how far we have come in one year.