SeaTown81":1nvqgl54 said:
The market used to be there for backups with nothing but untapped potential. But too many teams have got burned over recent years. Which was why the free agent market for Flynn was rather sparse. And conversely, too many teams are scoring BIG by drafting guys and playing them right away. 1/3 of the league is currently qb'ed by draft picks of the last couple seasons. Team's aren't watching Seattle, Washington, and Indy make the playoffs with rookie qb's, Cincy and Minnesota getting it done with 2nd year guys, and saying to themselves, "Maybe we'll try the route Arizona and Kansas City tried instead."
I'm not replying to you as much as I am the people who think there's some big market for the guy. There wasn't last year when team's didn't have to give up draft picks. Why would there suddenly be now?
As I said to someone else, it really depends if there is a smart team out there that doesn't have access to the top 3 QBs in the draft but still needs to address the position. In baseball, the smartest GMs have taken to the "moneyball" philosophy of observing league wide trends and exploiting market inefficiencies. Or to put it using a stock market cliche: You buy low, sell high.
The league is buying high on rookie QBs and selling low on backups right now. The instinct of any moneyball type GM right now should be to investigate options where no one else is looking, because there will be no bidding war to drive up the price.
Or to put it in a very direct way: we have probably the smartest front office in the entire NFL, and guess who it was that signed Matt Flynn in the first place despite not even wanting him that much at the beginning of FA? They did it because they realized that Flynn's price was dropping as a result of being a market inefficiency. If Flynn were starting this season and playing on par with expectations, I think a lot of people would be amazed with how smart Seattle was for getting a solid league average QB (or better) at such low cost.
I agree with you that the recent success of young QBs will further emphasize the draft as a solution. Only problem is, after the top 3 QBs are gone you are looking at a QB class that has very little left (unless you are willing to overlook size issues (Aaron Murray, Matt Scott), which only a handful of GMs will). Despite the lack of options, the perception of the draft being a good source for a QB will turn 5th round QBs into 3rd round QBs, and 4th round QBs into 2nd rounders. What seems smarter, paying a 2nd round pick for a rookie Landry Jones or Tyler Bray, neither of which will likely be any good, or paying a 7th round pick and some cash for an established veteran nuanced in the west coast offense who has played very well at times?
If I was starting the NFL's 33rd franchise as GM that would be the very first call I'd make, just like how Holmgren called Green Bay for Hasselbeck and got a franchise QB for pennies on the dollar. I won't put Flynn on that high of a pedestal, but when he wasn't checking down and wasn't having passes dropped, he looked like a franchise QB in the preseason and he's acquitted himself well in the few regular season games he's played too.
And it's not like Flynn has to be your franchise. He isn't signed to a 6/60 contract like Kolb was. He's on a 2/15.5 deal (only $4 million guaranteed). It's just a low cost bridge QB that won't hurt your team while having real potential to be more than that.
I don't see much of a market for Flynn, but I do think a few smart teams will look at Flynn and his contract and think he's worth it. The draft pick won't be stellar, but the draft pick is just a bonus. If Seattle unloads Flynn for a round 4-7 pick, I'd say it a win for Seattle and a big win for whoever the buyer is. Seattle got a draft pick for Tarvaris Jackson. They got two picks for Aaron Curry. Flynn is far more valuable than either one- so I don't think Seattle would have much trouble finding a buyer, especially in a year where hunger at QB looks as intense as ever.