kearly
New member
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2007
- Messages
- 15,975
- Reaction score
- 0
With the last two wins by the Cardinals, their odds of winning the division increased to virtually 100%. Congrats Cards fans, your team almost certainly has the division locked up with the win last night. But just for fun, here is a breakdown of what needs to happen for Seattle to be division champs in 2015:
Seattle MUST win out. Arizona MUST lose out. A tie by either team clinches the division for AZ. This would put both teams at 11-5.
If this happens, here is how the division tiebreakers would apply:
Head-to-head: Tied 1-1.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. Tied 4-2.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. Tied. 9-3.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Tied 8-4.
Strength of victory. Arizona currently leading SoV tiebreaker by 3 wins (see below).
Strength of schedule. Seattle wins SoS tiebreaker (thanks to Carolina having a monster year).
So how does strength of victory shake out? Well, assuming that Seattle wins out and Arizona loses out, then most of the teams Seattle will have beaten are teams AZ beat too, with the exception of four teams:
AZ has victories over Cincy (10-2) and New Orleans (4-8).
Seattle has victories over Pittsburgh (7-5) and Dallas (4-8).
This puts Seahawks fans in the ironic position of rooting for the Steelers and Cowboys.
The good news here is that New Orleans has one of the worst defenses in NFL history and their remaining schedule is against some teams playing better football late in the season (other than Atlanta). The other good news is that Pittsburgh is one of the hottest teams in the NFL and has a decent shot to finish 11-5.
The bad news is that Cincy is 10-2 and will probably finish 12-4 at worst as they have games against Baltimore and @SF left on the schedule. Add SF to the ironic list of teams to root for. And the worst news is that Dallas needs to win games, and Dallas is really terrible. Dallas will only be favored to win in one of their final four games.
However, if Seattle gains 3 games in the strength of victory area over the next 4 weeks, then it would make SoV a tie and move the division tiebreaker to SoS, which Seattle will win.
It's a real long shot though, even if AZ loses out and Seattle wins out I'd still guess that AZ has a 80-90% chance to win the division based on SoV. I could see Seattle picking up 1 win in SoV, but 3 is going to be hard. Remaining games for each SoV team:
Cincy: Steelers, @49ers, @Broncos, Ravens
New Orleans: @Tampa, Detroit, Jacksonville, @Atlanta
Pittsburgh: @Cincy, Broncos, @Baltimore, @Cleveland
Dallas: @GB, Jets, @Buffalo, Washington
Seattle MUST win out. Arizona MUST lose out. A tie by either team clinches the division for AZ. This would put both teams at 11-5.
If this happens, here is how the division tiebreakers would apply:
Head-to-head: Tied 1-1.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. Tied 4-2.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. Tied. 9-3.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Tied 8-4.
Strength of victory. Arizona currently leading SoV tiebreaker by 3 wins (see below).
Strength of schedule. Seattle wins SoS tiebreaker (thanks to Carolina having a monster year).
So how does strength of victory shake out? Well, assuming that Seattle wins out and Arizona loses out, then most of the teams Seattle will have beaten are teams AZ beat too, with the exception of four teams:
AZ has victories over Cincy (10-2) and New Orleans (4-8).
Seattle has victories over Pittsburgh (7-5) and Dallas (4-8).
This puts Seahawks fans in the ironic position of rooting for the Steelers and Cowboys.
The good news here is that New Orleans has one of the worst defenses in NFL history and their remaining schedule is against some teams playing better football late in the season (other than Atlanta). The other good news is that Pittsburgh is one of the hottest teams in the NFL and has a decent shot to finish 11-5.
The bad news is that Cincy is 10-2 and will probably finish 12-4 at worst as they have games against Baltimore and @SF left on the schedule. Add SF to the ironic list of teams to root for. And the worst news is that Dallas needs to win games, and Dallas is really terrible. Dallas will only be favored to win in one of their final four games.
However, if Seattle gains 3 games in the strength of victory area over the next 4 weeks, then it would make SoV a tie and move the division tiebreaker to SoS, which Seattle will win.
It's a real long shot though, even if AZ loses out and Seattle wins out I'd still guess that AZ has a 80-90% chance to win the division based on SoV. I could see Seattle picking up 1 win in SoV, but 3 is going to be hard. Remaining games for each SoV team:
Cincy: Steelers, @49ers, @Broncos, Ravens
New Orleans: @Tampa, Detroit, Jacksonville, @Atlanta
Pittsburgh: @Cincy, Broncos, @Baltimore, @Cleveland
Dallas: @GB, Jets, @Buffalo, Washington