RolandDeschain
Well-known member
Remember, people; Vegas lines have nothing to do with who they think will win, the lines adjust to how people are betting...
RolandDeschain":125ixcn8 said:Remember, people; Vegas lines have nothing to do with who they think will win, the lines adjust to how people are betting...
MidwestHawker":3mjtpv14 said:Vegas doesn't really make huge mistakes on NFL lines.
RolandDeschain":2cg2rxfl said:MidwestHawker":2cg2rxfl said:Vegas doesn't really make huge mistakes on NFL lines.
Uh, what? Find a week where at least one game wasn't off by at least 15 points on the line. We were -4.5 going into last night's game and the correct spread turned out to have been -27.
iigakusei":2iasz9yv said:SF always gets good lines due to their proximity to Vegas. Plus San Fran NEEDS to win this game, whereas a loss for us wouldnt be the end of the world.
HawkFan72":8nxc2ah0 said:iigakusei":8nxc2ah0 said:SF always gets good lines due to their proximity to Vegas. Plus San Fran NEEDS to win this game, whereas a loss for us wouldnt be the end of the world.
That is motivation for the Seahawks though too.
If they win this week, they are Division Champs and clinch the #2 seed (and would only need 1 more win in the final 3 weeks to clinch #1).
Don't think that fact will not be on their mind. They can fly home as division champs with a guaranteed 1st round bye.
They may be even more motivated than the 49ers.
This isn't true. The line steadily moved toward the Saints after the Harvin news (dropping from 6 to 4.5), then shot up Sunday night from 4.5 to 6.5 with no news at all. Someone suggested that it was because the weather forecasts had finalized the cold, rainy conditions of the game, in which Brees and the Saints have historically struggled.MidwestHawker":2a9qnfan said:Hawk_Nation":2a9qnfan said:Wonder how much the line will change if Harvin is able to play.
Probably not much. The line actually moved in our favor against the Saints after Harvin was ruled out. I don't think he gets factored into our market price very much right now.
This is totally not true. Philly will push them for that 6th spot. In nearly all my tests on The Playoff Machine The Niners can win this game and STILL not make the playoffs. In most scenarios, especially using DVOA to pick the winners, the Cowboys/Eagles game decides which one wins the division and which one is the wildcard. The Niners HAVE to win this game to make the 6th seed.Polaris":31ckuv2p said:HawkFan72":31ckuv2p said:iigakusei":31ckuv2p said:SF always gets good lines due to their proximity to Vegas. Plus San Fran NEEDS to win this game, whereas a loss for us wouldnt be the end of the world.
That is motivation for the Seahawks though too.
If they win this week, they are Division Champs and clinch the #2 seed (and would only need 1 more win in the final 3 weeks to clinch #1).
Don't think that fact will not be on their mind. They can fly home as division champs with a guaranteed 1st round bye.
They may be even more motivated than the 49ers.
Given that 'zona and the Rams have been elminated from the Division, and given that the Niners have the fourth best record in the NFC and an schedule that's filthy-cushy post Seattle, San Fransisco is virtually assured of a wildcard spot almost by gravity. OTOH, even if San Fran were to win, it would take an almost total Seattle collapse including at least one home loss (yeah right) for them to take the Division.
San Fran has virtually nothing realistically to play for. They are almost a mortal lock for the #6 seed.
SalishHawkFan":g4x3zvqi said:This is totally not true. Philly will push them for that 6th spot. In nearly all my tests on The Playoff Machine The Niners can win this game and STILL not make the playoffs. In most scenarios, especially using DVOA to pick the winners, the Cowboys/Eagles game decides which one wins the division and which one is the wildcard. The Niners HAVE to win this game to make the 6th seed.Polaris":g4x3zvqi said:HawkFan72":g4x3zvqi said:iigakusei":g4x3zvqi said:SF always gets good lines due to their proximity to Vegas. Plus San Fran NEEDS to win this game, whereas a loss for us wouldnt be the end of the world.
That is motivation for the Seahawks though too.
If they win this week, they are Division Champs and clinch the #2 seed (and would only need 1 more win in the final 3 weeks to clinch #1).
Don't think that fact will not be on their mind. They can fly home as division champs with a guaranteed 1st round bye.
They may be even more motivated than the 49ers.
Given that 'zona and the Rams have been elminated from the Division, and given that the Niners have the fourth best record in the NFC and an schedule that's filthy-cushy post Seattle, San Fransisco is virtually assured of a wildcard spot almost by gravity. OTOH, even if San Fran were to win, it would take an almost total Seattle collapse including at least one home loss (yeah right) for them to take the Division.
San Fran has virtually nothing realistically to play for. They are almost a mortal lock for the #6 seed.
Perfundle":3hw9dtfc said:This isn't true. The line steadily moved toward the Saints after the Harvin news (dropping from 6 to 4.5), then shot up Sunday night from 4.5 to 6.5 with no news at all. Someone suggested that it was because the weather forecasts had finalized the cold, rainy conditions of the game, in which Brees and the Saints have historically struggled.MidwestHawker":3hw9dtfc said:Hawk_Nation":3hw9dtfc said:Wonder how much the line will change if Harvin is able to play.
Probably not much. The line actually moved in our favor against the Saints after Harvin was ruled out. I don't think he gets factored into our market price very much right now.
RolandDeschain":p1vfgr5y said:Remember, people; Vegas lines have nothing to do with who they think will win, the lines adjust to how people are betting...
MidwestHawker":2ezwa7eu said:Perfundle":2ezwa7eu said:This isn't true. The line steadily moved toward the Saints after the Harvin news (dropping from 6 to 4.5), then shot up Sunday night from 4.5 to 6.5 with no news at all. Someone suggested that it was because the weather forecasts had finalized the cold, rainy conditions of the game, in which Brees and the Saints have historically struggled.MidwestHawker":2ezwa7eu said:Hawk_Nation":2ezwa7eu said:Wonder how much the line will change if Harvin is able to play.
Probably not much. The line actually moved in our favor against the Saints after Harvin was ruled out. I don't think he gets factored into our market price very much right now.
Guess that depends on what you're classifying as "the Harvin news." If you're going from his first missed practice then yeah I guess it dropped after that, though the movement after that doesn't tend to make me think that the market is factoring in much at all. For what it's worth I'm pretty sure that it was already sitting down at 4.5 when the news of him being listed as doubtful hit the wire. And then it went up. And again I'm not trying to say the market saw it as a positive; just that they saw it as no huge factor at all.
RussellMania":2bzz0eiq said:RolandDeschain":2bzz0eiq said:Remember, people; Vegas lines have nothing to do with who they think will win, the lines adjust to how people are betting...
Came in here to post this. San Fran is one of the most betted on team in sports so no big surprise they would get a few points at home especially now that they are much healthier than the first time we played.
Not so. If the Eagles don't win their division and tie with the 49ers, I think they get the tie breaker. Could be wrong on that, but I double it.Polaris":3mjvb8dr said:HawkFan72":3mjvb8dr said:iigakusei":3mjvb8dr said:SF always gets good lines due to their proximity to Vegas. Plus San Fran NEEDS to win this game, whereas a loss for us wouldnt be the end of the world.
That is motivation for the Seahawks though too.
If they win this week, they are Division Champs and clinch the #2 seed (and would only need 1 more win in the final 3 weeks to clinch #1).
Don't think that fact will not be on their mind. They can fly home as division champs with a guaranteed 1st round bye.
They may be even more motivated than the 49ers.
Given that 'zona and the Rams have been elminated from the Division, and given that the Niners have the fourth best record in the NFC and an schedule that's filthy-cushy post Seattle, San Fransisco is virtually assured of a wildcard spot almost by gravity. OTOH, even if San Fran were to win, it would take an almost total Seattle collapse including at least one home loss (yeah right) for them to take the Division.
San Fran has virtually nothing realistically to play for. They are almost a mortal lock for the #6 seed.