Seahawks 2 1/2 to 3 point UNDERDOGS at SF

[RolandDeschain]

Remember, people; Vegas lines have nothing to do with who they think will win, the lines adjust to how people are betting...

 

[MidwestHawker]

It's a reasonable line. Vegas doesn't really make huge mistakes on NFL lines. I'd like to think that we win this but I think it's close to a coin flip.

 

[MidwestHawker]

Remember, people; Vegas lines have nothing to do with who they think will win, the lines adjust to how people are betting...

This is correct, but the betting it responds to is the biggest sums of money, and the biggest sums of money pour in from the sharps. It really isn't the casual gamblers that swing the lines very much if at all.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Vegas doesn't really make huge mistakes on NFL lines.

Uh, what? Find a week where at least one game wasn't off by at least 15 points on the line. We were -4.5 going into last night's game and the correct spread turned out to have been -27.

 

[MidwestHawker]

Vegas doesn't really make huge mistakes on NFL lines.

Uh, what? Find a week where at least one game wasn't off by at least 15 points on the line. We were -4.5 going into last night's game and the correct spread turned out to have been -27.

The actual margin of victory was 27; that would not have been the "correct spread." Like I said, I agree that they're not predicting the game outcomes, but instead they're a reflection of how the sharps who bet the game value the average game between the two teams on the field they're playing on. Averages of course include outliers, and those will sometimes hit in one-game sample sizes.

(We were actually -6.5 by kickoff after some late movement yesterday for what it's worth, but I realize that isn't really the point.)

 

[MontanaHawk05]

Our defense excels at taking away first reads. I'm not sure what Vegas thinks Kaepernick will be able to do.

 

[AgentDib]

I feel like this discussion happens four times per season, but MidwestHawker is 100% correct.

Vegas lines are very, very good at predicting expected outcomes due to Efficient market theory. By attempting to evenly split the money, the line inadvertently functions as a betting prediction market which utilizes the wisdom of the crowds to consistently outperform most individual analysts. Including data from both informed and uninformed sources is not a problem when you allow people to bet however much they want, because of the correlation between investment size and confidence. In other words, like stock market clearinghouses, if the smart money thinks that the split is wrong they will continue to invest money on the favorable side until the line moves to incorporate that information.

If you are interested in this topic there is an interesting white paper here by an Ohio State professor discussing the results of a test for this theory. The short version is that while he finds the spread to be very good, the money line and over/under for some reason do not appear to work nearly as well. No possible explanation is presented, but I suspect it may have to do with total betting volume.

 

[HawkFan72]

SF always gets good lines due to their proximity to Vegas. Plus San Fran NEEDS to win this game, whereas a loss for us wouldnt be the end of the world.

That is motivation for the Seahawks though too.

If they win this week, they are Division Champs and clinch the #2 seed (and would only need 1 more win in the final 3 weeks to clinch #1).

Don't think that fact will not be on their mind. They can fly home as division champs with a guaranteed 1st round bye.

They may be even more motivated than the 49ers.

 

[Polaris]

SF always gets good lines due to their proximity to Vegas. Plus San Fran NEEDS to win this game, whereas a loss for us wouldnt be the end of the world.

That is motivation for the Seahawks though too.

If they win this week, they are Division Champs and clinch the #2 seed (and would only need 1 more win in the final 3 weeks to clinch #1).

Don't think that fact will not be on their mind. They can fly home as division champs with a guaranteed 1st round bye.

They may be even more motivated than the 49ers.

Given that 'zona and the Rams have been elminated from the Division, and given that the Niners have the fourth best record in the NFC and an schedule that's filthy-cushy post Seattle, San Fransisco is virtually assured of a wildcard spot almost by gravity. OTOH, even if San Fran were to win, it would take an almost total Seattle collapse including at least one home loss (yeah right) for them to take the Division.

San Fran has virtually nothing realistically to play for. They are almost a mortal lock for the #6 seed.

 

[Perfundle]

Wonder how much the line will change if Harvin is able to play.

Probably not much. The line actually moved in our favor against the Saints after Harvin was ruled out. I don't think he gets factored into our market price very much right now.

This isn't true. The line steadily moved toward the Saints after the Harvin news (dropping from 6 to 4.5), then shot up Sunday night from 4.5 to 6.5 with no news at all. Someone suggested that it was because the weather forecasts had finalized the cold, rainy conditions of the game, in which Brees and the Saints have historically struggled.

 

[SalishHawkFan]

SF always gets good lines due to their proximity to Vegas. Plus San Fran NEEDS to win this game, whereas a loss for us wouldnt be the end of the world.

That is motivation for the Seahawks though too.

If they win this week, they are Division Champs and clinch the #2 seed (and would only need 1 more win in the final 3 weeks to clinch #1).

Don't think that fact will not be on their mind. They can fly home as division champs with a guaranteed 1st round bye.

They may be even more motivated than the 49ers.

Given that 'zona and the Rams have been elminated from the Division, and given that the Niners have the fourth best record in the NFC and an schedule that's filthy-cushy post Seattle, San Fransisco is virtually assured of a wildcard spot almost by gravity. OTOH, even if San Fran were to win, it would take an almost total Seattle collapse including at least one home loss (yeah right) for them to take the Division.

San Fran has virtually nothing realistically to play for. They are almost a mortal lock for the #6 seed.

This is totally not true. Philly will push them for that 6th spot. In nearly all my tests on The Playoff Machine The Niners can win this game and STILL not make the playoffs. In most scenarios, especially using DVOA to pick the winners, the Cowboys/Eagles game decides which one wins the division and which one is the wildcard. The Niners HAVE to win this game to make the 6th seed.

 

[Polaris]

SF always gets good lines due to their proximity to Vegas. Plus San Fran NEEDS to win this game, whereas a loss for us wouldnt be the end of the world.

That is motivation for the Seahawks though too.

If they win this week, they are Division Champs and clinch the #2 seed (and would only need 1 more win in the final 3 weeks to clinch #1).

Don't think that fact will not be on their mind. They can fly home as division champs with a guaranteed 1st round bye.

They may be even more motivated than the 49ers.

Given that 'zona and the Rams have been elminated from the Division, and given that the Niners have the fourth best record in the NFC and an schedule that's filthy-cushy post Seattle, San Fransisco is virtually assured of a wildcard spot almost by gravity. OTOH, even if San Fran were to win, it would take an almost total Seattle collapse including at least one home loss (yeah right) for them to take the Division.

San Fran has virtually nothing realistically to play for. They are almost a mortal lock for the #6 seed.

This is totally not true. Philly will push them for that 6th spot. In nearly all my tests on The Playoff Machine The Niners can win this game and STILL not make the playoffs. In most scenarios, especially using DVOA to pick the winners, the Cowboys/Eagles game decides which one wins the division and which one is the wildcard. The Niners HAVE to win this game to make the 6th seed.

That bolded statement is just not true. San Fran has 8 wins in it's hip pocket and only three conference losses. That gives then a two game lead on the rest of the NFC for the #6 seed. Why? Because any team that hits 11 wins in the NFC North (Lions) will become the NFCN Champ, and any team that hits 11 wins in the NFCE will also become the NFCE Champ and both the Eagles and Cowboys play each other. Not only that but the teams that would otherwise catch San Fran all play each other at some point.

While not a mathematic lock, San Fran is about a mortal lock to be the #6 seed and only the #6 seed. Look at the Football Outsiders Playoff percentages and you see this (for week 13).

 

[kearly]

If SF's last 3 games against Seattle, they have scored a combined 29 points. Just two touchdowns in those three games, and one of them was in garbage time and wouldn't have held up on replay had the officials given a shit.

 

[MidwestHawker]

Wonder how much the line will change if Harvin is able to play.

Probably not much. The line actually moved in our favor against the Saints after Harvin was ruled out. I don't think he gets factored into our market price very much right now.

This isn't true. The line steadily moved toward the Saints after the Harvin news (dropping from 6 to 4.5), then shot up Sunday night from 4.5 to 6.5 with no news at all. Someone suggested that it was because the weather forecasts had finalized the cold, rainy conditions of the game, in which Brees and the Saints have historically struggled.

Guess that depends on what you're classifying as "the Harvin news." If you're going from his first missed practice then yeah I guess it dropped after that, though the movement after that doesn't tend to make me think that the market is factoring in much at all. For what it's worth I'm pretty sure that it was already sitting down at 4.5 when the news of him being listed as doubtful hit the wire. And then it went up. And again I'm not trying to say the market saw it as a positive; just that they saw it as no huge factor at all.

 

[Largent80]

I gotta plunk some down on this, we will easily cover that.

 

[HawkWow]

Harbaugh has no choice but to pull out all the stops. Still, he's smart enough to not trust Kaep to throw repeatedly into our coverages. Though I sincerely hope he does.

Their combined RBs will be lucky to top 120 yards against us, IMO . This leaves Harbaugh going (too frequently) to the RO with Kaep. I believe we will be facing last year's 9er team, not this year's, and with their inability to throw on us, the key to victory will be taking away Kaep's legs.

I won't be stunned if we have a bit of a letdown / hangover after last nights big win. I've not yet worked the numbers but my gut is currently telling me we win by 7-10.

 

[RussellMania]

Remember, people; Vegas lines have nothing to do with who they think will win, the lines adjust to how people are betting...

Came in here to post this. San Fran is one of the most betted on team in sports so no big surprise they would get a few points at home especially now that they are much healthier than the first time we played.

 

[HawkWow]

Wonder how much the line will change if Harvin is able to play.

Probably not much. The line actually moved in our favor against the Saints after Harvin was ruled out. I don't think he gets factored into our market price very much right now.

This isn't true. The line steadily moved toward the Saints after the Harvin news (dropping from 6 to 4.5), then shot up Sunday night from 4.5 to 6.5 with no news at all. Someone suggested that it was because the weather forecasts had finalized the cold, rainy conditions of the game, in which Brees and the Saints have historically struggled.

Guess that depends on what you're classifying as "the Harvin news." If you're going from his first missed practice then yeah I guess it dropped after that, though the movement after that doesn't tend to make me think that the market is factoring in much at all. For what it's worth I'm pretty sure that it was already sitting down at 4.5 when the news of him being listed as doubtful hit the wire. And then it went up. And again I'm not trying to say the market saw it as a positive; just that they saw it as no huge factor at all.

You are correct. The "Harvin news" did not move the line. Nor did the BB or WT news. Non QBs have very little impact on line fluctuations, as we learned this past week. The line opened at 4.5 most places, but the MGM had it at 5.5. It stayed fairly steady thru-out the week.

About half the betting public is stupid. The other half not as much. Too many people want to emphasize (non QB) injury or in Harvin's case, supposed health when trying to determine a games outcome. This would hold true if the way it worked was 'BB is out...looks like Seattle will only field 10 men on D'. We know that's not how it works and in the NFL, there's a guy waiting in the wings. Sometimes that guy plays better than the starter. That's why such news has little impact on lines.

 

[MidwestHawker]

Remember, people; Vegas lines have nothing to do with who they think will win, the lines adjust to how people are betting...

Came in here to post this. San Fran is one of the most betted on team in sports so no big surprise they would get a few points at home especially now that they are much healthier than the first time we played.

Again, if the sharps are propping up SF with their bets, it's because SF is that good. Those guys aren't just homering it up and flushing expected value down the toilet when they go to the sportsbook.

None of what I'm saying should be construed as saying that I think we lose this game; I'm really not sure what happens and I think it's a close call. But these lines aren't some illusion meant to cater to popular opinion amongst casual fans.

 

[5_Golden_Rings]

SF always gets good lines due to their proximity to Vegas. Plus San Fran NEEDS to win this game, whereas a loss for us wouldnt be the end of the world.

That is motivation for the Seahawks though too.

If they win this week, they are Division Champs and clinch the #2 seed (and would only need 1 more win in the final 3 weeks to clinch #1).

Don't think that fact will not be on their mind. They can fly home as division champs with a guaranteed 1st round bye.

They may be even more motivated than the 49ers.

Given that 'zona and the Rams have been elminated from the Division, and given that the Niners have the fourth best record in the NFC and an schedule that's filthy-cushy post Seattle, San Fransisco is virtually assured of a wildcard spot almost by gravity. OTOH, even if San Fran were to win, it would take an almost total Seattle collapse including at least one home loss (yeah right) for them to take the Division.

San Fran has virtually nothing realistically to play for. They are almost a mortal lock for the #6 seed.

Not so. If the Eagles don't win their division and tie with the 49ers, I think they get the tie breaker. Could be wrong on that, but I double it.



In any case, that line will change soon after what happened Monday.