Sam Howell is our Brock Purdy, until he isn't.

[RiverDog]

Howell's time to throw has been 2.86s and 2.88s in his first two seasons which I believe puts him slightly slower than average. However, I'm not sure that stat is meaningful across teams when it's just averaging every single drop back. Maybe you could normalize by average depth of target or something, but that still would miss that sacks are often a QB stat even when they happen quickly.

Howell has always been a sack magnet. He took 45 sacks his last year at UNC with ~65 broken tackles against ACC defenses. I do respect his toughness, but it's completely to be expected that the broken tackles didn't translate when facing NFL defensive linemen.

As another stat point, consider that after week 6 of last season the Commanders were graded as 8th best OL pass block win rate (PFF) and yet Sam Howell was on pace for the highest sack total in NFL history. Making sense of that involves some combination of Howell running himself into sacks, missing blitzers, and/or PFF grades being inaccurate.

Next Gen stats has Howell's time to throw at 2.82 sec., which is about average. Brock Purdy's, for example, is 2.86, and Russell Wilson's is 3.06, 3rd worst in the league.

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PFF's ranks the Commanders overall pass blocking, which includes the entire offense, as 15th, or average.

And, after taking a second look at the pocket time stats, Howell had the longest pocket time in the league, which now makes complete sense. So you are correct, he does have a huge issue related to his taking sacks.

I'm not defending Howell. He obviously has his warts. But it doesn't alter my opinion that it's a very good trade simply due to how cheap we got him. He has at least as good of a chance of developing as would the #4 or #5 QB taken in the draft except we'd be out our most valuable piece of draft capital in the #16 overall.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Should be a very interesting draft and 2024 season for sure

 

[EverydayImRusselin]

Howell's time to throw has been 2.86s and 2.88s in his first two seasons which I believe puts him slightly slower than average. However, I'm not sure that stat is meaningful across teams when it's just averaging every single drop back. Maybe you could normalize by average depth of target or something, but that still would miss that sacks are often a QB stat even when they happen quickly.

Howell has always been a sack magnet. He took 45 sacks his last year at UNC with ~65 broken tackles against ACC defenses. I do respect his toughness, but it's completely to be expected that the broken tackles didn't translate when facing NFL defensive linemen.

As another stat point, consider that after week 6 of last season the Commanders were graded as 8th best OL pass block win rate (PFF) and yet Sam Howell was on pace for the highest sack total in NFL history. Making sense of that involves some combination of Howell running himself into sacks, missing blitzers, and/or PFF grades being inaccurate.

Interesting to note, Howells sack rate went down drastically after his first handful of starts. Last 10 games he averaged 2.5 sacks per game, which is fairly close to league average. First 7 games he averaged almost 6 sacks per game.

The fact that is was his first year starting and they had him dropping back to pass almost 700 times tells you all you need to know about the offensive game plan.

 

[RiverDog]

Interesting to note, Howells sack rate went down drastically after his first handful of starts. Last 10 games he averaged 2.5 sacks per game, which is fairly close to league average. First 7 games he averaged almost 6 sacks per game.

The fact that is was his first year starting and they had him dropping back to pass almost 700 times tells you all you need to know about the offensive game plan.

Not only that, but at 30.5 ppg and 388.9 ypg, the Commanders defense gave up the most points and yards than any other team in the league. That means the Washington offense was constantly playing from behind and in predictable passing situations. Plus, their rushing offense ranked 27th.

That's not to excuse Howell's role in that disaster, just that there's a lot of blame to be spread around and that it wasn't all his fault.

 

[Bear-Hawk]

Perhaps the Hawks wanted a scrambler type , tough QB , who can take a beating if need be . That's Howell I suppose .

In that case, Seahawks should have been in the bidding for Fields.

 

[DirectMessage]

In that case, Seahawks should have been in the bidding for Fields.

Nah. They have a type. Short, scramblers with a rocket arm. Drew Brees?

 

[SoulfishHawk]

I wouldn't be surprised if they at least inquired about Fields.

 

[IndyHawk]

And a lot ME3 wouldn't, like listen to a Coach and Coaching, throw over the middle, to name a couple.

Have to admit that's a good point.

 

[Lords of Scythia]

Krieg would have much smaller hands comparing hands with an infant. JUST KIDDING HE DID IT WITH JOE NAMATH AND HAD THE SAME SIZE.

 

[toffee]

Krieg would have much smaller hands comparing hands with an infant. JUST KIDDING HE DID IT WITH JOE NAMATH AND HAD THE SAME SIZE.

Big hands have advantages, but QB with hands could be successful too. Mahome (9.25), Brady (9.38"), big Ben (9.38), and Eli Manning (9.13"), they have small hands but won the super-bowls. Goff (9"), (9.25"), Jimmy G (9.25") took their teams to the super-bowls.

HAND SIZES OF NFL QUARTERBACKS
Player	Size	Fumbles
Dak Prescott, Dall.	10.88	1.36%
Ryan Fitzpatrick, T.B.-Mia.	10.75	1.46%
Drew Brees, N.O.	10.25	.53%
Russell Wilson, Sea.	10.25	1.52%
Aaron Rodgers, G.B.	10.13	.75%
Josh Allen, Buff.	10.13	2.11%
Gardner Minshew, Jac.	10.13	2.28%
Andrew Luck, Ind.	10.00	.85%
Matthew Stafford, Det.	10.00	1.16%
Carson Wentz, Phil.	10.00	2.13%
Tua Tagovailoa	10.00	?
Cam Newton, Car.	9.88	1.00%
Kirk Cousins, Min.	9.88	1.59%
Jacoby Brissett, Ind.	9.75	1.29%
Deshaun Watson, Hou.	9.75	1.48%
Daniel Jones, NYG	9.75	3.32%
Joe Flacco, Bal.-Den.	9.63	1.54%
Kyler Murray, Ariz.	9.50	.73%
Andy Dalton, Cin.	9.50	.90%
Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.	9.50	.98%
Matt Ryan, Atl.	9.50	1.38%
Lamar Jackson, Balt.	9.50	2.25%
Tom Brady, N.E.	9.38	.63%
Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.	9.38	.96%
Jameis Winston, T.B.	9.38	1.60%
Kyle Allen, Car.	9.38	2.16%
Philip Rivers, LAC	9.25	.84%
Patrick Mahomes, K.C.	9.25	.99%
Baker Mayfield, Cle.	9.25	1.13%
Sam Darnold, NYJ	9.25	1.61%
Jimmy Garoppolo, S.F.	9.25	2.10%
Eli Manning, NYG	9.13	1.10%
Derek Carr, Oak.	9.13	1.59%
Case Keenum, Den.-Was.	9.13	1.85%
Ryan Tannehill, Mia.-Ten.	9.00	1.57%
Jared Goff, LAR	9.00	1.67%
Joe Burrow	9.00	?

 

[King Dog]

"Howell, isn’t bad…he did rip Seattle up last year…he’s capable."

That reminds me of how happy I am that Pete and Hurtt are gone. Hallelujah and amen

 

[olyfan63]

Yes, and those are pretty much the only notable exceptions (maybe Russ also) among dozens of late round qb's. The hit rate on late round qb's is abysmally low. Hopefully he's another exception, but so far, it's not looking great. Maybe the new regime will help him. Fingers crossed.

Kirk Cousins was a 4th rounder by the Commies/Redskins. He and Russell are forever linked from college rivalry. Cousins' MSU teammates loved him, that is for sure. So now, at roughly same age as Russell, Cousins again "gets a bag", while Russell plays on the "vet minimum" plus Denver's generous $40M-ish gift to NOT play for them.

Sure, "mid-round", not "late-round" for Cousins, but Commies developmental QB is the common thread.