Read OP before Voting! Should Pete be the Head Coach only?

[Fade]

Fade should be the HC and GM and quit on the team in the last part of the year.

Ouch..You remember that too :lol:

Ouch what? Seahawks.NET isn't the Seahawks the last I checked. I don't work for the team, and that is a mistake on their part.

:shock: No it isn't,your a legend in your own mind.
You do know some football I'll give you that but somewhere
fantasy gets mixed up with reality.

It's called sarcasm buddy. :lol:

:2thumbs:

 

[Fade]

Nice strawman. Claim you know what they were thinking (when you don't) and then build an argument around that.

Name 1 FA DL impact player that was available...and that would not break the bank. People like to claim that they had all of this cap money to spend, but it reality, they didn't. They seemed to take the best player available at the best price they could get and didn't go out an spend all of their cap prestige on 1 or 2 player.

Older thread, I already laid it out, maybe someone will link it.

On the Adams trade it is even more unconscionable if they didn't think they were 1 piece away.

No offense, but I don't buy into much of anything you "lay-out".

How do you figure???? Adams is a pro-bowl player that we picked up very cheap (in terms of cap space). He did not break the bank with his signing one bit. His signing left room for other signings. Now he might be expensive in 2 years, but right now he isn't.

You're loss. My track record speaks for itself.

I figure that when trading two 1sts, and a 3rd, and having to give that player a mega contract. 1 player isn't going to fix it. Those assets need to be spread out to fill all of the holes on the defense.

 

[Fade]

Pete was fairly candid after the AZ game and I wanted to see if that would transfer to the SF game.

They blitzed repeatedly, and that is how they're going to have to play the rest of the way. As that is how they are built.

Still not out of the woods yet obviously, playing a banged up Jimmy the Gigolo isn't exactly ARodg and TB12, but it definitely was a step in the right direction schematically.

Prevent in the 4th was to be expected, but I'm amazed at how they let dudes run 10-15 yards seemingly after every catch. The way prevent is supposed to work is you invite the short throw underneath, and you come up and make the tackle on the spot with little RAC. Trading 4-7 yards for clock. The Seahawks give up massive chunks everytime, it's crazy.

DJ Reed gives me hope. Once Griffin gets back into the lineup, and Ugo Amadi as well, that should bump Trey Flowers (FFD) behind all of them on the depth chart.

 

[Maelstrom787]

I can definitely agree that their first round (or, rather, their highest pick) drafting has been subpar. I don't think that's reasonably able to be argued against, and I hope no one thinks that this is what I'm trying to sell people on.

I think they drafted Collier with the above average expectation, but not Brooks. Brooks is a high ceiling guy. Curious, why are you so down on Brooks? I thought he popped off the screen against Arizona and, for the most part, was adept at flying to the ball and had a few good coverage snaps. I was really encouraged by his play.

Returning to him, they definitely know they reached on him. I mean, they admitted it in the presser, stating the positional talent fell off way too steeply after him to not take him there... but they knew they needed to come away with somebody. That said, I'm not ready to throw him out just yet. I really consider this his rookie season, had a rough go of it in 2019 and his issues in 2019 seem to line up with his injury not being fully healed. Looked like he had issues with leverage, would make sense with his ankle not at 100%. You'd see guys just push him onto the ground last year. That's not really showing up in 2020. On a bad line, he's played pretty competently and I think he is a decent replacement for QJeff. Still has room to grow, too. He'll never be a huge sack guy, but if he's 2019 QJeff caliber come 2021, then I'm fine with it. It's not a home run, but they got on base.

And, before more accuse me of Collier fanboyism, I didn't want him either. Here's my tweet from before the 2019 draft.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/turbinsbicep/status/1120805049666605056[/tweet]

Hell, I even made a meme about the pick being lame. But, then I felt bad that LJ might see it, so I added disclaimers.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/turbinsbicep/status/1121667840325472256[/tweet]


Being honest as for the reason for my long response: Quality analysis has been somewhat scarce here recently, and you're one of the top posters. Didn't want people to go all Kearly on you and take your SOP statement as gospel and start repeating that Pro Bowlers are the common result of late first rounders rather than the ideal goal. I had actually made a thread expanding on those posts, but it got deleted in the rollback and I cannot be arsed to write that thing over again, lol.

Again, what teams are LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH with their 1st pick, In a very generic 32 team, generic draft sense. Just like when you have a Rodgers, Wilson, Brady, Mahomes, etc. you're looking to win the Super Bowl. But you're not realistically going to win it every year but that is the expectation. Teams are looking to get starters in the first 3 rounds of the draft. With the 1st selection being capable of making the pro-bowl. You're not always going to draft impact in the 1st round, but that is the expectation. 4th rounders are spot starters and rotational players. 5-7 is special teamers, and flyers.

Where am I wrong in this paragragh?

Fade, man, I'm confused by your reply. I wasn't disputing your premise of a teams intention in the reply you quoted, and expanded on what I felt the aim was on the Collier/Brooks picks.

 

[jamescasey1124]

This whole post is trash. Throw it away.

You have 11 players on the field at once. That's all. 22 total really play the game. 3 others and a handful of backups play special teams.

You don't draft to land number one picks that analyst assume are going to be great. That's the problem with half of you guys. You expect to much. You draft a 1st round pick in whatever round you can land him in. Example is third round Wilson. He is a first round caliber player. Bobby is another. Sherman and chancellor were both fifth rounders. Should have been 1st rounders.

You draft to fill a team. Not by best player available. It's impossible to have 11 b wags on defense. The hits and misses you listed are garbage. Most have done work o this team and we decided it didnt work out.

Calling brooks a bust is nuts. You must not be watching because he is there almost anytime bobby makes a tackle. Taylor hasnt played yet, but judging on how they picked robinson, taylor will ball out. Green and collier are fine. They will be here a while. I think over all the miss is this post. Big time whiff.

 

[TypeSly]

Now, to make sure I'm being very thorough regarding the first round, let's analyze every single pick made from 17-32 in the 2015 through 2018 drafts to see how many of these guys end up being good starters, even if they haven't made a Pro Bowl. We'll chalk the non-good starters up in a bust column. I'm not including 2019 or 2020 because it's simply too soon to tell, and it'd be way too much of a projection to assign a label to them just yet.



2015:

17. Arik Armstead. Very good.
18. Marcus Peters. Good, Pro Bowler.
19. Cameron Erving. Bust.
20. Nelson Agholor. Career negative DYAR per Football Outsiders. Replacement level. Bust.
21. Cedric Ogbuehi. Has been terrible, is now a Seahawks backup. Bust.
22. Bud Dupree. Hit.
23. Shane Ray. 1 alright year, currently unemployed. Bust.
24. DJ Humphries. We're gonna call him a hit. His play has been bad at times, but quite good at others, including currently.
25. Shaq Thompson. We'll call him a hit. Decent starter. His best ball is behind him, but I'll be generous.
26. Breshad Perriman. Bust.
27. Bryon Jones. Good, Pro Bowler.
28. Laken Tomlinson. Bust.
29. Phillip Dorsett. Bust, on Seahawks.
30. Damarious Randall. Bust, on Seahawks.
31. Stephone Anthony. Bust. Unemployed.
32. Malcom Brown. We'll call him a hit. Decent starter.

Out of these 16, 9 were busts. Bust rate of 56.25%.


2016:

17. Keanu Neal. Hit. Probowl.
18. Ryan Kelly. Hit. Probowl.
19. Shaq Lawson. Average. Not a full bust, but not a good starter, so bust column.
20. Darron Lee. Holy bust.
21. Will Fuller. I'll very generously include him, considering he's been injured for nearly half his games. Career +DYAR.
22. Josh Doctson. B-b-b-BUST.
23. Laquon Treadwell. Bust city.
24. William Jackson. Hit.
25. Artie Burns. Bust.
26. Paxton Lynch. Bust.
27. Kenny Clark. Probowl.
28. Joshua Garnett. Bust.
29. Voided due to Belicheat's flat balls.
30. Vernon Butler. Replacement level. Not including as a good starter. Bust.
31. Germain Ifedi. We were definitely too hard on him, but we'll chalk him in the bust column. Bust.
32. Emmanuel Ogbah. We'll chalk him as a hit. Not a franchise rusher, but a decent enough starter.

Out of these 15, 8 are replacement level or complete busts. 53.33% bust rate.


2017:

17. Jonathan Allen. Good starter. Hit.
18. Adoree Jackson. Sure, hit.
19. OJ Howard. I mean... he's plus DYAR, but injured a lot. We'll err on the side of hit.
20. Garrett Bolles. He gets a lot of hate, but I'm considering him a hit, even disregarding his improved 2020 play. But he's had a good few hiccups.
21. Jarrad Davis. He's playing better this year, but has been bad for every other year. Bust.
22. Charles Harris. Bust.
23. Evan Engram. He gets volume, but +8 DYAR for career? Nah, bust column. Not a "good" starter, just a starter.
24. Gareon Conley. Average. Bust column, not a good starter.
25. Jabrill Peppers. Let's call him a hit. Rough rookie season, good since.
26. Takk McKinley. He's right on the line. I'm gonna err bust. Fifth year decline, sacks numbers tailed off after 2 alright starting years in the league.
27. Tre'Davious White. Probowl.
28. Taco Charlton. Bust.
29. David Njoku. Bust. Injuries have hurt him, and he was no better than Engram to begin with.
30. TJ Watt. Hit. Probowl.
31. Reuben Foster. Obviously good, but bust due to off-field career sabotage and then injury. Bust.
32. Ryan Ramczyk. Hit.

Out of these 16, 8 are replacement level or complete busts. 50% bust rate. Not as many outright busts this year.


2018:

17. Derwin James. Probowl.
18. Jaire Alexander. Hit.
19. Leighton Vander Esch. Probowl.
20. Frank Ragnow. Hit.
21. Billy Price. Bust.
22. Rashaan Evans. Replacement level bust.
23. Isaiah Wynn. Injured for most games. Bust.
24. DJ Moore. Hit.
25. Hayden Hurst. Bust.. but playing a bit better this year. Still not "good" starter.
26. Calvin Ridley. Hit.
27. Rashaad Penny. Talented, but bust.
28. Terrell Edmunds. Replacement level. Bust.
29. Taven Bryan. Bust.
30. Mike Hughes. On the bust side.
31. Sony Michel. We'll call him a hit.
32. Lamar Jackson. Probowl.

Out of these 16, 8 are replacement level or busts so far in their short careers. 50% bust rate.



Now, lets dig into this. We can see that the bust rate hovers around 50% at the backend of the first, fairly consistently, too.

So, let's start by editing the demonstrably inflated criteria for back-of-first-round success to just landing a good starter instead of a Pro Bowler. In these 4 drafts, the most recent drafts within which we can somewhat-comfortably assign a value/label to a player, 63 players were picked in the back end of the first round. 30 players were good enough to be assigned the label of being an above average starter.

That's a 47.6% chance of landing a good starter in the back of the first round. Less than a coin flips chance. With the pie-in-the-sky "SOP" of expecting a Pro Bowler from a first round pick, ignoring the context of these picks being LATE first rounders, you, the FANS are setting yourselves up for disappointment by misinforming yourself about the caliber of talent that's generally available. Stars do not grow on trees. The chances of getting a Pro Bowler, even with Seattle's HIGHEST pick, are very slim. Even expecting a GOOD starter from these late first rounders is slightly less than even odds.

I'll do a less exhaustive review of what can be reasonably expected, using the same drafts from 2015-2018, from the later rounds at another time. But, really, it's already crystal clear that we need to drastically bring our expectations from the draft out of fairytale land and back down to earth. This isn't Madden, and 2010/2012 weren't sustainable levels of success. So, please, let's temper our expectations and perspective based on the actual reality of what these picks end up being.

PS... yeah. I voted for the second option.

Holy Maelstrom... I gotta give it to you. Some brilliant well-researched posts! :2thumbs:

 

[LTH]

This whole post is trash. Throw it away.

You have 11 players on the field at once. That's all. 22 total really play the game. 3 others and a handful of backups play special teams.

You don't draft to land number one picks that analyst assume are going to be great. That's the problem with half of you guys. You expect to much. You draft a 1st round pick in whatever round you can land him in. Example is third round Wilson. He is a first round caliber player. Bobby is another. Sherman and chancellor were both fifth rounders. Should have been 1st rounders.

You draft to fill a team. Not by best player available. It's impossible to have 11 b wags on defense. The hits and misses you listed are garbage. Most have done work o this team and we decided it didnt work out.

Calling brooks a bust is nuts. You must not be watching because he is there almost anytime bobby makes a tackle. Taylor hasnt played yet, but judging on how they picked robinson, taylor will ball out. Green and collier are fine. They will be here a while. I think over all the miss is this post. Big time whiff.

LMAO!!!!!! :irishdrinkers:


LTH

 

[Fade]

Again, what teams are LOOKING TO ACCOMPLISH with their 1st pick, In a very generic 32 team, generic draft sense. Just like when you have a Rodgers, Wilson, Brady, Mahomes, etc. you're looking to win the Super Bowl. But you're not realistically going to win it every year but that is the expectation. Teams are looking to get starters in the first 3 rounds of the draft. With the 1st selection being capable of making the pro-bowl. You're not always going to draft impact in the 1st round, but that is the expectation. 4th rounders are spot starters and rotational players. 5-7 is special teamers, and flyers.

Where am I wrong in this paragragh?

Fade, man, I'm confused by your reply. I wasn't disputing your premise of a teams intention in the reply you quoted, and expanded on what I felt the aim was on the Collier/Brooks picks.

You've created a strawman, I believe unintentionally of course, that has muddied up the thread. Implying I am downing the Seahawks for not being 100% on their 1st rd picks. When all I was simply stating that there was a general baseline to gauge whether a pick is successful or not in the NFL. 1st rd - 7th rd there are standards they are looking to hit. They are not going to hit them every year, but they can't whiff as much as the have.

I don't think Pete & John are high fiving and poppin' champagne over the LJ Collier pick. Drafting a JAG in the 4th round is a decent pick. Drafting a JAG with your 1st selection is a bad pick, pure and simple. Do that over a long enough period of time and you're going to have the 32nd ranked defense in the NFL.

Seattle is batting well under the avg you yourself have typed out. And you've already agreed with me that they have not drafted well in the early rounds when it pertains to the defense. So I'm more confused, and have no idea what you're even trying to argue. If I have to explain every rudimentary detail that should already be implied, I guess we're not going to get very far in this discussion.