Q&A with Saints Fans/Seahawks-Saints Game Preview ...

[iigakusei]

The Saints do have a 12-2 record against Atlanta in the Sean Payton Era. The Bucs play hard but the Saints usually beat them. Carolina games are usually split in which each home team wins. I would like to point out that when the Bucs came to Seattle they had a 0-7 record and it took Seattle to over time for them to win, now if the 0-7 Bucs can come to Seattle and do that, why would you expect the Saints who have the leagues top passing offense and the leagues top 5 overall defense to come to Seattle and get blown out?

I don't know. The same Jets team that beat you soundly in week 9 also got blown out by a Buffalo Bills team this past Sunday, which the Saints blew out in week 8. The transitive property only works in mathematics. It doesn't apply to the NFL. You see that every week.

Also, if you watched our Bucs game, there were a series of fluke events in the 2nd quarter that led to that 21-point outburst. From the last Seahawks drive in the 2nd quarter (which led to a TD) to the rest of the game, the Seahawks dominated. Being down 21-7 at the half, I had no doubt in mind that we were going to come out of that game with a W.
It was very similar to the Tennessee game. A fluke special teams play at the end of the half gave them a 10-7 lead at
the break instead of being down 10-3. But, we were dominating the game and the outcome was never really in doubt.

Yeah Mike James Had 158 yards rushing against the Seahawks. The rush defense for the seahawks had them on the ropes against Texans and they had to fight back from a deficit. Their run defense was against the ropes in St. Louis in which they had to really fight to win. And Mike James of the Bucs had 158 yards rushing against Seattle and once again you guys had to fight back from a deficit in Seattle. My point that you guys are still not addressing is Seattle's run defense which has been its weak point which ranks below the Saints rush defense.

We have definitely had a couple games this year where we were getting gashed on the ground. You mentioned the Rams and Bucs games, Pete Carroll made a point after those two games that he felt the players were going for the ball too much and not being fundamentally sound. The last two games against the Falcons and Vikings we have totally bottled up both run games (minus some Toby Gerhart garbage time runs). Hopefully we have those issues solved.

 

[SaintsReporter]

Hey Hawks fans, SaintsReport.com'er here wanting to talk some football! I've read through a couple pages of this thread and here are a couple of my takeaways. There is some homerism between both sides, which is good. Confidence is key for a fan, but I'll try to be as level-headed and unbiased as I can.

I'm also not an ESPN Insider wannabe, so I'm replacing numbers with my pure football experience and personal opinion. Thanks to the guys over at SR, I've watched every Saints game 3+ times and know what I'm talking about. I DVR'd the Seahawks/Rams game and watched about 2 others throughout the season. I'm definitely not as knowledgeable about the Hawks, so I'll stick to my Saints.


Saints Strengths

Aerial Attack - This one is obvious. The horses in the Hawk secondary must come prepared if they wish to have a shot in this one, even at home. Brees and Sean Payton have shown time and time again that they're willing to completely abandon the running game if the pass is working. A new Saint seems to rise to the occasion with every game played, so don't think that shutting down Jimmy Graham guarantees the Hawks a win. He is obviously our most potent game-changer, so limiting him so quick throws will dramatically increase the odds of stalling the Saints offense.

On the Ground - If Carroll underestimates the Saints ground game expect a heavy dose of Pierre Thomas, especially early on in the first quarter. Saints will try to quiet the crowd with a running attack on the first drive, even if it's largely through the air on quick passes to Sproles and Thomas. A common misconception around here is the Saints having a poor running attack, but they just design the ground game around Brees. Don't get me wrong the Saints have put a number of teams away recently by handing the ball off, but unless it's proven to be effective early on expect to see a number of quick screens and dumpoffs before testing the deep throws to Graham, Stills, and Meachem. Mark Ingram is also starting to gain Brees trust through the air, and if he's used in the screen game properly he could catch EVERYBODY off guard, even me.

The New D - This has come as quite a shock to the NFL, but it's true. The Saints have a top 5 defense in the league. They have the ABILITY to shut down both the run and the pass, the latter being the main focus after the loss of Jabari Greer. A team like Seattle I'm sure is geared towards hoping that Lynch will have a great game, but it will be no surprise TO ME if he is largely held in check. Early on in the year, Rob Ryan had the mindset that we were going to sell out on the pass and force teams to run the ball to beat us, which is hard to do in today's NFL. However, ever since the Jets game in NY when Ivory went off on us, that mantra has changed dramatically. Aside from maybe a 30+ yarder at most once a game, no one is beating us with their running game. But if there is anyone who can make me look foolish, it's Lynch. As an aside, the Saints D rank best (#1) in the NFL in missed tackles so expect very few opportunities like the one you all had in 2010. I'm in no way saying that the Seahawks won't be able to run on us, but if it happens it will be through multiple 10-15 yard gainers and not 80 yard runs.

Lastly, my opinion on how to get the best of the Saints team is through dink and dunk football. All of you that are hoping to blow the Saints out next Monday are just playing into our hands. The Saints live for other teams to get over-confident and air out the ball downfield. With the way Cam Jordan, Hicks, and Junior Gallette are rushing the passer, Wilson won't be able to take multiple 5 step dropbacks multiple times a series. It will end up forcing you into 3rd and longs, what our defense lives for. Rob's D is not great in 3rd and manageable situations, so if I were Seattle I'd coast my way down the field, play ball-control, and if I'm looking for a big play I'd get the ball to Harvin on a quick pass and let him do the rest.

Last note that I believe will be the deciding factor. TOUCHDOWNS. Field goals will work against an offense in this game. If either team has a nice long drive conclude with a field goal then get hit with a quick TD, expect the tide to turn rather quickly. This game is ALL about maximizing the limited chances of putting points on the board. This isn't something that's my pure opinion, whoever has the best redzone offense and defense, they will come away with the W.

Thanks guys. Very nice looking forum you have here.

 

[citysaint]

Do you guys expect Thomas to play more slot... it certainly would negate his ability to roam. Regardless of the level of quality depth you guys have currently, going from fully stocked to 3 ready corners for game day is NOT good, especially against a team that loves going 5 wide.

Do you know why Winfield who was a pro-bowl corner retired at the end of Seattle's Training camp? He wasn't good enough to secure a roster spot! I don't think you have any conception of just how deep Seattle's depth at corner actually is (and Seattle is restocking that depth as we speak). I am not saying that Maxwell and Lane are as good, but they are good enough that any dropoff should be minimal....and Browner was not going to play anyway.

So no, I don't expect much if any drop-off in the Legion of Boom this coming Monday.

Insanity. Winfield couldn't make your roster because he is garbage. Done, Finito, Stick a fork in him. If what you are implying was the case not one other team has signed him. The guy is what 40 years old... Please sign him, PLEASE and let him play slot against the Saints you would be better off if Mebane was playing in coverage.

 

[SuperVillain]

Yeah Mike James Had 158 yards rushing against the Seahawks. The rush defense for the seahawks had them on the ropes against Texans and they had to fight back from a deficit. Their run defense was against the ropes in St. Louis in which they had to really fight to win. And Mike James of the Bucs had 158 yards rushing against Seattle and once again you guys had to fight back from a deficit in Seattle. My point that you guys are still not addressing is Seattle's run defense which has been its weak point which ranks below the Saints rush defense.

Adrian Peterson is probably the best runningback in the NFL. How many yards did he have against Seattle's defense? That's a lot more recent than what you are poining to.

My point is that it's true that Seattle's run defense bottomed out for a couple of games a few weeks ago, but that was then and this is now.

Adrian Peterson is the only thing that Minnesota has. Its easy to cheat 10 men in the box and dare Christian Ponder or whoever they decide to use at QB to throw the ball. The Seahawks will have to remain honest with the Saints because of Graham and Sproles coming out of the back field. Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram who is now running really well will attack Seattle's Rush defense. If those two start moving the Chains like the Texans, Panthers, Rams, and Bucs did to Seattle's rush defense its going to be a tough night because Drew will have that Secondary guessing wrong all night.

 

[canfan]

Do you guys expect Thomas to play more slot... it certainly would negate his ability to roam. Regardless of the level of quality depth you guys have currently, going from fully stocked to 3 ready corners for game day is NOT good, especially against a team that loves going 5 wide.

Do you know why Winfield who was a pro-bowl corner retired at the end of Seattle's Training camp? He wasn't good enough to secure a roster spot! I don't think you have any conception of just how deep Seattle's depth at corner actually is (and Seattle is restocking that depth as we speak). I am not saying that Maxwell and Lane are as good, but they are good enough that any dropoff should be minimal....and Browner was not going to play anyway.

So no, I don't expect much if any drop-off in the Legion of Boom this coming Monday.

Insanity. Winfield couldn't make your roster because he is garbage. Done, Finito, Stick a fork in him. If what you are implying was the case not one other team has signed him. The guy is what 40 years old... Please sign him, PLEASE and let him play slot against the Saints you would be better off if Mebane was playing in coverage.

Actually he is 36. I think the Vikings and one other team (sorry can't remember who, so take that with a grain of salt) wanted to sign him, but he preferred to retire if he couldn't catch on with a contender. Your comment shows you don't really understand the idea behind signing him. The Seahawks don't want Winfield to be a starter. They are looking for depth and somebody who can come in for a few plays and know the system and the other players. He would certainly fit that bill better than a lot of the bodies available on the street right now, but he is still just one of several options they are looking at right now. He also finished last year at a very high level for the Vikings and they haven't been able to replace him this year with anybody comparable, so why not at least kick the tires on signing him? Is he done? Is he garbage? Maybe, I don't know what kind of shape he is in or what unreported injuries he may have been dealing with. As far as I know, you don't have that information either. I notice people often use sweeping proclamations to compensate for a lack of true information.

 

[-The Glove-]

Yeah Mike James Had 158 yards rushing against the Seahawks. The rush defense for the seahawks had them on the ropes against Texans and they had to fight back from a deficit. Their run defense was against the ropes in St. Louis in which they had to really fight to win. And Mike James of the Bucs had 158 yards rushing against Seattle and once again you guys had to fight back from a deficit in Seattle. My point that you guys are still not addressing is Seattle's run defense which has been its weak point which ranks below the Saints rush defense.

Adrian Peterson is probably the best runningback in the NFL. How many yards did he have against Seattle's defense? That's a lot more recent than what you are poining to.

My point is that it's true that Seattle's run defense bottomed out for a couple of games a few weeks ago, but that was then and this is now.

Adrian Peterson is the only thing that Minnesota has. Its easy to cheat 10 men in the box and dare Christian Ponder or whoever they decide to use at QB to throw the ball. The Seahawks will have to remain honest with the Saints because of Graham and Sproles coming out of the back field. Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram who is now running really well will attack Seattle's Rush defense. If those two start moving the Chains like the Texans, Panthers, Rams, and Bucs did to Seattle's rush defense its going to be a tough night because Drew will have that Secondary guessing wrong all night.

Good point. I wonder why other teams aren't stacking the box and shutting AP down.

 

[lengai]

I've refrained from this thread up til now mainly because I've been so busy, but also because I don't know as much about the Saints as I'd like to.

Regarding MNF, unlike Scott I don't mind bringing it up. West Coast teams have historically dominated night games against teams from the central and eastern time zones. For the Saints, this is their equivalent of a 10am start. I agree with Scott though that discussion shouldn't end there. It's just one factor.

As far as the matchups, Brees plays the game fast and like Wilson has to work to find his reads. His receiving corps is actually pretty similar to Seattle, in that (other than Graham) they aren't always the best at getting open but only rarely drop passes and can make plays deep. I thought Stills was a steal in the draft, I compared him to Golden Tate before he was drafted (speed, balance, movement, deep threat, but sometimes he's a bonehead).

I have Brees on fantasy football and have watched him most weeks. I think he is an MVP candidate but I think Wilson at his best is the deadlier QB. Brees processes faster and is far better at punishing the blitz, but he also makes a few reckless throws a game which Wilson does not. Even with some backups in, I think Seattle gets a pick or two. I also think Brees will be a checkdown machine in this game similar to Alex Smith. Manning and Rodgers and even Brady were afraid to throw 10+ the last time each of them faced our defense.

The Saints defense I know little about. If they are a great blitzing team, they could cause problems. If not, I expect Seattle to walk all over them.

I think Pierre Thomas will have a good game. Seattle has struggled a little against quick/medium-build/physical hybrids at RB this year.

I'm not worried about Graham because like Vernon Davis, he doesn't have any #1 WRs to pull attention away from him, and when Seattle puts a CB on the TE it's pretty much game over.

Good post, but that last line made me go eeeeeee. Marques Colston is a solid #1 and has been playing well since he came back from injury. Graham and Vernon Davis are not similar players. Neither are Gronk and Graham. He's more like Gates. Seattle very well may be able to shut down Graham if they game plan it. He is human and Talib played him well in the first half until they both got injured. Peyton will have learned from the NE game and will have a plan in place for it to adjust if needed. All of the Saints recievers, Colston, Stills, Moore, Meachem, and Toon along with Watson, and Graham at TE and Sproles and Thomas out of the backfield obviously won't all play at once, but any one of them left open can make an opposing D pay dearly. Drew regulary hits 9 or more receivers per game.

The Saints D is not a big blitzing D, we get pressure with the front 4 and we are just learning who these guys are too. It's been a very pleasant surprise and they are very consistent.

 

[SuperVillain]

Yeah Mike James Had 158 yards rushing against the Seahawks. The rush defense for the seahawks had them on the ropes against Texans and they had to fight back from a deficit. Their run defense was against the ropes in St. Louis in which they had to really fight to win. And Mike James of the Bucs had 158 yards rushing against Seattle and once again you guys had to fight back from a deficit in Seattle. My point that you guys are still not addressing is Seattle's run defense which has been its weak point which ranks below the Saints rush defense.

Adrian Peterson is probably the best runningback in the NFL. How many yards did he have against Seattle's defense? That's a lot more recent than what you are poining to.

My point is that it's true that Seattle's run defense bottomed out for a couple of games a few weeks ago, but that was then and this is now.

Adrian Peterson is the only thing that Minnesota has. Its easy to cheat 10 men in the box and dare Christian Ponder or


whoever they decide to use at QB to throw the ball. The Seahawks will have to remain honest with the Saints because of Graham and Sproles coming out of the back field. Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram who is now running really well will attack Seattle's Rush defense. If those two start moving the Chains like the Texans, Panthers, Rams, and Bucs did to Seattle's rush defense its going to be a tough night because Drew will have that Secondary guessing wrong all night.

Good point. I wonder why other teams aren't stacking the box and shutting AP down.

Well every team doesnt have a top 5 defenses. Certain teams are good at stopping the run and others are not. The Jet's were number 1 at stopping the run. They are the only team that really stopped the saints run. If the Seahawks can't stop the Saints run its going to be a long night. The Seahawks Run defense is key to them winning against the saints.

 

[HawkAroundTheClock]

This has been really enjoyable learning more about the Saints. Thanks for all the input, people. The two defensive breakdowns have been especially informative. I think our teams have more similarities than differences at this point.

One tiny fix:

Kennan Lewis CB- ...If I'm not mistaken he led the league last year in pass deflections at the Steelers.

Lewis finished a very close 2nd with 23. Richard Sherman had 24.
_____________________________________________________

As for the QBs we have faced:
Here are their ratings for each week this season.
Their lowest week is in blue, their matchup with the Seahawks is yellow.
If their lowest rating came against the Seahawks, the score is green.

Player	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Cam Newton	97.2	79.8	104.4	bye	47.8	143.4	136.3	111.6	68.4	52.7	125.4
Papaki	129.4	20.1	49.9	115.7	89	92.9	93.2	117.7	bye	42	72.9
Chad Henne	68.8	92.1	45.4	---	101.1	65.9	80.6	84.3	bye	49.2	69
Matt Schaub	110	76.6	72.8	81.6	32.2	98.5	---	---	---	---	67.9
Andrew Luck	127.9	79.7	82.1	89.8	104	66.2	99.5	bye	92.8	65.3	82.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick	---	---	---	125	57.7	46.8	---	---	---	111.2	111.6
Carson Palmer	96.6	73.5	43.4	62.2	57	79.1	70.4	116	bye	93.4	119
Kellen Clemens	---	---	---	---	---	---	63.5	36.8	84.2	140.6	bye
Mike Glennon	---	---	---	55.7	bye	84.7	90.7	80.1	123.1	69.3	137.5
Matt Ryan	96.8	117.8	84.4	91.7	111	bye	148.4	47.2	70.4	84.5	70.8
Christian Ponder	63.1	75.3	64.4	---	bye	---	---	86.4	82.7	113.1	53

[tdo=12]2013 QB Ratings by Week [/tdo]

QUICK TAKE:
5 of the 11 QBs have had their worst game of the season against the Seahawks (through week 11)
Of the 5 opposing QBs to play in Seattle, 4 had their worst performance of the season at C-Link (through week 11)
0 of the 11 QBs had their best game against the Seahawks (although 2 have had their 2nd best game: Luck, Glennon)

Sure, rating isn't the end-all of stats, and some QBs have a small sample size, but there's no doubt it's tough to be an opposing QB in Seattle.
Of course, Brees is going to be the best QB we've seen this year. Man, this is such a fascinating matchup. Can't wait for the game!

 

[citysaint]

Do you guys expect Thomas to play more slot... it certainly would negate his ability to roam. Regardless of the level of quality depth you guys have currently, going from fully stocked to 3 ready corners for game day is NOT good, especially against a team that loves going 5 wide.

Do you know why Winfield who was a pro-bowl corner retired at the end of Seattle's Training camp? He wasn't good enough to secure a roster spot! I don't think you have any conception of just how deep Seattle's depth at corner actually is (and Seattle is restocking that depth as we speak). I am not saying that Maxwell and Lane are as good, but they are good enough that any dropoff should be minimal....and Browner was not going to play anyway.

So no, I don't expect much if any drop-off in the Legion of Boom this coming Monday.

Insanity. Winfield couldn't make your roster because he is garbage. Done, Finito, Stick a fork in him. If what you are implying was the case not one other team has signed him. The guy is what 40 years old... Please sign him, PLEASE and let him play slot against the Saints you would be better off if Mebane was playing in coverage.

Actually he is 36. I think the Vikings and one other team (sorry can't remember who, so take that with a grain of salt) wanted to sign him, but he preferred to retire if he couldn't catch on with a contender. Your comment shows you don't really understand the idea behind signing him. The Seahawks don't want Winfield to be a starter. They are looking for depth and somebody who can come in for a few plays and know the system and the other players. He would certainly fit that bill better than a lot of the bodies available on the street right now, but he is still just one of several options they are looking at right now. He also finished last year at a very high level for the Vikings and they haven't been able to replace him this year with anybody comparable, so why not at least kick the tires on signing him? Is he done? Is he garbage? Maybe, I don't know what kind of shape he is in or what unreported injuries he may have been dealing with. As far as I know, you don't have that information either. I notice people often use sweeping proclamations to compensate for a lack of true information.

So you think that signing a 36 yr old corner off the street and who has not been in football shape in 4 months is a great idea? You're better off going with practice squad players, but neither of these scenarios would make me feel good if I were a Hawks fan. The best thing about this is that you have a pass rush and hopefully IF there is drop off a great pass rush negates all errors in coverage. This game is too big to think of losing one inch of advantage.

 

[Sarlacc83]

Adrian Peterson is probably the best runningback in the NFL. How many yards did he have against Seattle's defense? That's a lot more recent than what you are poining to.

My point is that it's true that Seattle's run defense bottomed out for a couple of games a few weeks ago, but that was then and this is now.

Adrian Peterson is the only thing that Minnesota has. Its easy to cheat 10 men in the box and dare Christian Ponder or


whoever they decide to use at QB to throw the ball. The Seahawks will have to remain honest with the Saints because of Graham and Sproles coming out of the back field. Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram who is now running really well will attack Seattle's Rush defense. If those two start moving the Chains like the Texans, Panthers, Rams, and Bucs did to Seattle's rush defense its going to be a tough night because Drew will have that Secondary guessing wrong all night.

Good point. I wonder why other teams aren't stacking the box and shutting AP down.

Well every team doesnt have a top 5 defenses. Certain teams are good at stopping the run and others are not. The Jet's were number 1 at stopping the run. They are the only team that really stopped the saints run. If the Seahawks can't stop the Saints run its going to be a long night. The Seahawks Run defense is key to them winning against the saints.

And since our team stopped Adrian Peterson, I'm pretty sure they can handle Mark "Bust" Ingram and Pierre Thomas (who I respect). Also, Sproles better be careful on screens, because this can happen (Watch the tackle, #73. He's going up against our strong safety):



Graham should probably watch out, too:



In my opinion, if Kam does what he does against the Saints, the receivers are going to develop alligator arms.

 

[formido]

Adrian Peterson is probably the best runningback in the NFL. How many yards did he have against Seattle's defense? That's a lot more recent than what you are poining to.

My point is that it's true that Seattle's run defense bottomed out for a couple of games a few weeks ago, but that was then and this is now.

Adrian Peterson is the only thing that Minnesota has. Its easy to cheat 10 men in the box and dare Christian Ponder or


whoever they decide to use at QB to throw the ball. The Seahawks will have to remain honest with the Saints because of Graham and Sproles coming out of the back field. Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram who is now running really well will attack Seattle's Rush defense. If those two start moving the Chains like the Texans, Panthers, Rams, and Bucs did to Seattle's rush defense its going to be a tough night because Drew will have that Secondary guessing wrong all night.

Good point. I wonder why other teams aren't stacking the box and shutting AP down.

Well every team doesnt have a top 5 defenses. Certain teams are good at stopping the run and others are not. The Jet's were number 1 at stopping the run. They are the only team that really stopped the saints run. If the Seahawks can't stop the Saints run its going to be a long night. The Seahawks Run defense is key to them winning against the saints.

Stopping the run is very rarely the key to winning in the NFL[1]. That's why, if you look at Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings, you'll see them littered from top to bottom with defenses in the negatives on rush defense (negative meaning they kill points on average against the run) but only teams with defenses in the top half of the league are in the negatives on pass defense. Fact is, most teams devote too many defensive resources (salary, scheme, and talent) to run stopping and not enough to passing. Seattle doesn't make that mistake.

Someone earlier questioned whether Seattle has faced tough QBs. Luckily, we have a system, DVOA, which has proved to be more predictive than any "power ranking" or similar rating system than any other currently known. DVOA reliably accounts for strength of opponent.

Seattle is number one in the NFL, by far, in pass defense by DVOA, at -24%, after factoring opponent quality. The next closest team, Cincinnati, stands at -16%. The gap between Seattle and Cincinnati is the same as the gap between Cincinnati and the 7th place team. New Orleans also has a very good pass defense, at -13%. Just not as good as Seattle's.

Part of the reason Seattle is so good in pass defense is because they play the entire field. There are some teams with amazing cover corners who shut down wide receivers, and they get a lot of glory, while the team gets gouged by TEs and RBs. Not Seattle. Seattle is ranked #3 in the NFL against TEs and #4 against RBs.

We know that the team ranked #1 in passer rating differential has won the NFL championship 36% of the time since 1940. Passing efficiency wins championships, and Seattle knows this on both sides of the ball. Frankly, so does New Orleans, Seattle is just better at it, all in all.

Now, passer rating isn't as good as ANY/A at assessing passing efficiency. I don't know what percentage of #1 rated teams by ANY/A have won NFL championship, but it's almost certainly more predictive than passer rating differential. Someone over on another site calculated ANY/A differential for this year and here's the current rankings:

Seattle 4.01
New Orleans 3.07
Denver 2.63
Philadelphia 1.80
Cincinnati 1.42
Carolina 1.13
Carolina 0.91
New England 0.76
San Francisco 0.64
Arizona 0.52
Chicago 0.49
San Diego 0.46

[ source: http://www.fieldgulls.com/2013/11/25/51 ... #199955027 ]

By one very predictive measure, this MNF game really pits the #1 team versus the #2. Luckily for us, Seattle is that #1 team, the game's at home, it's a late start for New Orleans, and Brees isn't playing at home.

[1] We should also clear up some confusion from a couple comments earlier in this thread (not quoted here). Seattle may have given up slightly more yards rushing on defense than the Saints so far this year. Anyone who has kept up with football since the Internet age should be well acquainted with the fact that cumulative yards are not very important, efficiency is. Seattle's run defense is good, at -8.2% by DVOA, which means when you run on them, you're hurting your chances to score. That's good enough for 11th in the NFL. As it turns out, most teams in the NFL have good enough run defenses that when you run against them, you're hurting your expected chance to score. An exception: New Orleans, at 2.1% ranked 29th in the NFL. If an average team runs against New Orleans, they're more likely than usual to score points over time. Bad news when facing Marshawn Lynch.

 

[SuperVillain]

Stopping the run is very rarely the key to winning in the NFL[1]. That's why, if you look at Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings, you'll see them littered from top to bottom with defenses in the negatives on rush defense (negative meaning they kill points on average against the run) but only teams with defenses in the top half of the league are in the negatives on pass defense. Fact is, most teams devote too many defensive resources (salary, scheme, and talent) to run stopping and not enough to passing. Seattle doesn't make that mistake.

Someone earlier questioned whether Seattle has faced tough QBs. Luckily, we have a system, DVOA, which has proved to be more predictive than any "power ranking" or similar rating system than any other currently known. DVOA reliably accounts for strength of opponent.

Seattle is number one in the NFL, by far, in pass defense by DVOA, at -24%, after factoring opponent quality. The next closest team, Cincinnati, stands at -16%. The gap between Seattle and Cincinnati is the same as the gap between Cincinnati and the 7th place team. New Orleans also has a very good pass defense, at -13%. Just not as good as Seattle's.

Part of the reason Seattle is so good in pass defense is because they play the entire field. There are some teams with amazing cover corners who shut down wide receivers, and they get a lot of glory, while the team gets gouged by TEs and RBs. Not Seattle. Seattle is ranked #3 in the NFL against TEs and #4 against RBs.

We know that the team ranked #1 in passer rating differential has won the NFL championship 36% of the time since 1940. Passing efficiency wins championships, and Seattle knows this on both sides of the ball. Frankly, so does New Orleans, Seattle is just better at it, all in all.

Now, passer rating isn't as good as ANY/A at assessing passing efficiency. I don't know what percentage of #1 rated teams by ANY/A have won NFL championship, but it's almost certainly more predictive than passer rating differential. Someone over on another site calculated ANY/A differential for this year and here's the current rankings:

Seattle 4.01
New Orleans 3.07
Denver 2.63
Philadelphia 1.80
Cincinnati 1.42
Carolina 1.13
Carolina 0.91
New England 0.76
San Francisco 0.64
Arizona 0.52
Chicago 0.49
San Diego 0.46


Im sorry Man...this has to be arguably one of the worst bias analysis in the history of sports forums. I almost quit reading after you said stopping the run is not key to winning games but it gets funnier cause you conclude with "bad news when facing Marshawn Lynch" which contradicts your very first opening statement. Please go up to Pete carol and tell him that stopping the run is not key to winning football games! Please! Every team in the history of football looks to stop and establish the run. Just face the truth...Seattle has a serious weakeness and that's stopping the run so that means just as much as you guys look to run on the Saints, the Saints are equally just as eager to run on Seattle. And Seattle defense as a whole has struggles more this season in games where the run has been established on them. This is why the Saints passing game is going to be efficient on Monday night.

 

[citysaint]

DVOA rank of the QB's Seattle has faced

Ryan DYAR 4 DVOA 7
Scam Newton DYAR 12th DVOA 14th
Luck DYAR 14 DVOA 19
Krapernick DYAR 16th DVOA 12th
Fitzpatrick DYAR 20 DVOA 16
Ponder DYAR 27 DVOA 27
Schaub DYAR 28 DVOA 28
Palmer DYAR 29 DVOA 35
Clemens DYAR 31 DVOA 33
Glennon DYAR 35 DVOA 37
Henne DYAR 38 DVOA 37

Saints opponent ranking for comparison.

Ryan DYAR 4 DVOA 7
Ryan DYAR 4 DVOA 7
Brady DYAR 11 DVOA 15
Krapernick DYAR 13th DVOA 21
Romo DYAR 16 DVOA 5
Cutler DYAR 17 DVOA 17
Tannehill DYAR 22 DVOA 23
Palmer DYAR 29 DVOA 35
Lewis DYAR 33 DVOA 36
Freeman DYAR 37 DVOA 38
Smith DYAR 41 DVOA 39

 

[Polaris]

DVOA rank of the QB's Seattle has faced

Ryan DYAR 4 DVOA 7
Scam Newton DYAR 12th DVOA 14th
Luck DYAR 14 DVOA 19
Krapernick DYAR 16th DVOA 12th
Fitzpatrick DYAR 20 DVOA 16
Ponder DYAR 27 DVOA 27
Schaub DYAR 28 DVOA 28
Palmer DYAR 29 DVOA 35
Clemens DYAR 31 DVOA 33
Glennon DYAR 35 DVOA 37
Henne DYAR 38 DVOA 37

Saints opponent ranking for comparison.

Ryan DYAR 4 DVOA 7
Ryan DYAR 4 DVOA 7
Brady DYAR 11 DVOA 15
Krapernick DYAR 13th DVOA 21
Romo DYAR 16 DVOA 5
Cutler DYAR 17 DVOA 17
Tannehill DYAR 22 DVOA 23
Palmer DYAR 29 DVOA 35
Lewis DYAR 33 DVOA 36
Freeman DYAR 37 DVOA 38
Smith DYAR 41 DVOA 39

This is slanted. Ryan has a terrific DYAR and DVOA on a team that stinks on ice, and Atlanta lit you up both times you played them and this year Atlanta is one of the worst teams in the league by any measure. Ryan is good, but his team emphatically is not by ANY measure including DVOA.

 

[Hawkscanner]

Keep in mind that only one member of Seattle's legion of boom (Browner, Sherman, Chancellor, Thomas) was drafted in the first four rounds. Most of those guys were dudes nobody had heard of before 2011. Not to take anything away from some of those guys, but they are the beneficiaries of a terrific head coach who played corner himself during his playing days. Nobody else in the league comes remotely close to Pete's ability to coach up DBs and put them in position to succeed.

On that note, just because you haven't heard of some of our corners, don't assume they suck. Maxwell would be starting for most teams, Lane is a decent corner and a superstar special teams player, and Shead, while inexperienced, looked terrific in the preseason. The real reason Seattle went 4-0 last season without Browner and Thurmond was because the dropoff wasn't earth shattering.

As Kearly is saying (and I mentioned back on Pg. 6), I haven't seen many GM's do a better job of evaluating talent that John Schneider. His ability to find good, talented players that become key contributors in the mid to later rounds (and among the UDFA's) is remarkable actually. In this whole discussion of, "How much will the Seahawks miss Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond?" ... I thought it would be instructive to take a take a look at Seattle's 53 Man Roster and how each player was acquired ...

DE Cliff Avril … FA Signing 2013
OT Alvin Bailey … UDFA 2013
WR Doug Baldwin … UDFA 2011
DE Michael Bennett … FA Signing 2013. Originally an UFDA by Seahawks in 2009
OT Michael Bowie … 7th Round 2013
CB Brandon Browner … FA Signing from the CFL
DE Red Bryant … 4th Round 2008
G James Carpenter … 1st Round 2011
SS Kam Chancellor … 5th Round 2010
DE Chris Clemons … Trade for Daryll Tapp in 2010. Hawks also got a 4th Rounder from Eagles
RB Derrick Coleman … UDFA 2013
TE Kellen Davis … FA Signing 2013
LB Heath Farwell … UDFA originally w/Vikings. Signed by Hawks in 2011.
OT Breno Giacomini … FA Signing 2011 (was 5th Round pick by GB in 2008)
C Clint Gresham … UDFA 2010
WR Percy Harvin … Trade for 1st Round 2013, 7th Round 2013, 3rd Round 2014
OT Caylin Hauptmann … UDFA 2013
K Steven Hauschka …. FA Signing 2011
DT Jordan Hill … 3rd Round 2013
LB/DE Bruce Irvin … 1st Round 2012
QB Tavaris Jackson … FA Signing 2013
C Lemuel Jeanpierre … UDFA 2011
S Jeron Johnson … UDFA 2011
WR Jermaine Kearse … UDFA 2012
CB Jeremy Lane … 6th Round 2012
WR Ricardo Lockette … Signed FA 2013. Originally UDFA by Seahawks 2011
RB Marshawn Lynch … Trade from Bills to Seahawks for 2011 4th Round Pick in 2010
S Chris Maragos … FA Signing 2011. Originally UDFA by 49ers in 2010
CB Byron Maxwell … 6th Round 2011
DE Benson Mayowa … UDFA 2013
DT Tony McDaniel … FA Signing 2013. Originally UDFA by Jaguars in 2006
DT Clinton McDonald … FA Signing 2011. Originally 7th Round 2010 by Bengals
G Paul McQuistan … FA Signing 2011. Originally 5th Round 2006 by Raiders
DT Brandon Mebane … 3rd Round 2007
RB Christine Michael … 2nd Round 2013
TE Zach Miller … FA Signing 2011. Originally 2nd Round 2007 by Raiders
LB Mike Morgan … UDFA 2011
OT Russell Okung … 1st Round 2010
FB Michael Robinson … FA Signing 2010. Originally 4th Round 2006 by 49ers
P Jon Ryan … FA Signing 2008. Originally UDFA 2006 by Packers
LB O’Brien Schofield … FA Signing 2013. Originally 4th Round 2010 by Cardinals
CB Richard Sherman … 5th Round 2011
LB Malcolm Smith … 7th Round 2011
G J.R. Sweezy … 7th Round 2012
WR Golden Tate … 2nd Round 2010
FS Earl Thomas … 1st Round 2010
CB Walter Thurmond … 4th Round 2010
RB Robert Turbin … 4th Round 2012
C Max Unger … 2nd Round 2009
LB Bobby Wagner … 2nd Round 2012
TE Luke Willson … 5th Round 2013
QB Russell Wilson … 3rd Round 2012
LB K. J. Wright … 4th Round 2011

I’ve gone ahead and highlighted in light green the players that were already on the roster when Pete Carroll and John Schneider were hired in 2010. There aren’t many left from pre-2010. Of the players that ARE on the roster, here is a breakdown of how they were acquired by Seattle (Note: I am ONLY counting the players that John Schneider has acquired) …

1st Round Picks … 4
2nd Round Picks … 2
3rd Round Picks … 2
4th Round Picks … 3
5th Round Picks … 3
6th Round Picks … 2
7th Round Picks … 3
UDFA’s by Seahawks … 11 (I’m including Lockette in here)
FA Signings … 13 (nearly all are on low salary bargain deals. Only 1 is making any kind of money: Zach Miller. Avril and Bennett are on 1 year deals.)
Trades … 3 (but all are key players: Harvin, Lynch, and Clemons)

So, only 6 players on the active roster were either 1st or 2nd Round Picks (and Carpenter’s sure been a disappointment) … 5 players were either 3rd or 4th Round Picks … 8 players were drafted 5th to 7th Round … and 11 were Undrafted Free Agent signings by the Seahawks.

You gotta admit, that’s fairly impressive when you stop and think about where this team is at.

 

[Hawkscanner]

Hmmmm ... no takers thus far on my questions of the morning. I'd love to get some Saints Fans to weigh in on the questions that I posted on the Top of Pg. 7 (2nd Posting).

 

[SaintsReporter]

DVOA rank of the QB's Seattle has faced

Ryan DYAR 4 DVOA 7
Scam Newton DYAR 12th DVOA 14th
Luck DYAR 14 DVOA 19
Krapernick DYAR 16th DVOA 12th
Fitzpatrick DYAR 20 DVOA 16
Ponder DYAR 27 DVOA 27
Schaub DYAR 28 DVOA 28
Palmer DYAR 29 DVOA 35
Clemens DYAR 31 DVOA 33
Glennon DYAR 35 DVOA 37
Henne DYAR 38 DVOA 37

Saints opponent ranking for comparison.

Ryan DYAR 4 DVOA 7
Ryan DYAR 4 DVOA 7
Brady DYAR 11 DVOA 15
Krapernick DYAR 13th DVOA 21
Romo DYAR 16 DVOA 5
Cutler DYAR 17 DVOA 17
Tannehill DYAR 22 DVOA 23
Palmer DYAR 29 DVOA 35
Lewis DYAR 33 DVOA 36
Freeman DYAR 37 DVOA 38
Smith DYAR 41 DVOA 39

This is slanted. Ryan has a terrific DYAR and DVOA on a team that stinks on ice, and Atlanta lit you up both times you played them and this year Atlanta is one of the worst teams in the league by any measure. Ryan is good, but his team emphatically is not by ANY measure including DVOA.

I fear that the numbers are much less slanted than your own opinions. The Falcons team we beat Week 1 were playing full strength, and aside from a few role players, esentially the team that ended your season last year. Matt Ryan had a decent outing, throwing two TD's on a defense playing their first game under a new Coordinator.

The Falcons team we just beat gave up five sacks, scored 13 points, and Ryan threw zero TDs. Yes they are bad, but they'll still win a couple more games before the seasons over and are still very young. The saints didn't play their best without Sproles and Evans our All Pros, but Brees simply gets the job done.

However, the real point is that saying Ryan "lit us up" after throwing 0 touchdowns against a defense that had 4 days rest after playing the 49ers is ignorant at best and at worst embarrassing. Ryans only highlight of the game was picking on Corey White, a second year replacement for Greer who we lost 4 days prior. If you consider that "lighting it up" maybe ill reserve my opinion of Wilson as a good QB. Obviously your standards are set low.

 

[camdawg]

Yeah Mike James Had 158 yards rushing against the Seahawks. The rush defense for the seahawks had them on the ropes against Texans and they had to fight back from a deficit. Their run defense was against the ropes in St. Louis in which they had to really fight to win. And Mike James of the Bucs had 158 yards rushing against Seattle and once again you guys had to fight back from a deficit in Seattle. My point that you guys are still not addressing is Seattle's run defense which has been its weak point which ranks below the Saints rush defense.

NFL defensive rushing stats:
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst..._YARDS_PER_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1

It is true your Saints give up 111.9 rushing yards per game to the Seahawks 112.9 . Does this really mean the Seattle run defense is a weak point?

You give up a yard less per game, because you've faced 3 and a half less running plays per game. The yard per carry average tells the real story. Seattle gives up 4.2 yards per carry. The Saints give up 4.8. The Saints have also allowed 9 rushing TDs to only 4 for Seattle.

We've had our bad moments, but I wouldn't call Seattle's run defense a weak point.

 

[Seahawkfan80]

A very insightful thread here. I was curious about the punting/kicking core and that was addressed in a portion of the special teams answer. I appreciate it. There are some intangibles that have not been addressed but I am not sure at this moment how to bring them up. One that came to mind....Punting if it should happen with the New Orleans Saints, can they do the old school punt to the yard marker and out of bounds to preclude a runback by our Percy? I have not seen much of it this year and due to the speed of the fleet of foot defenders, It is almost a forgotten skill. That is all for the most part....