Erebus
Active member
I'm in a speech class and I have to do a persuasive speech. The topic I chose is to convince people to bet on the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl. Obviously you can't help me with my delivery, but please look over the content and see how I can improve it. I'm looking for more compelling arguments, accuracy, and simply better ways of saying it. I apologize in advance for how long it is.
By a show of hands, how many of you like football?
Okay, and how many of you like money?
All of you? Excellent. Me too.
I’m going to combine the two and financially benefit from my favorite NFL team’s success this year, and it’s my intent today to extend the opportunity for all of you to benefit as well. I’m going to explain to you why it’s a good financial investment to bet on the Seahawks to win the next Super Bowl.
I’m going to cover three main points.
1. They have the most talented team in the NFL. They were so close last year, and they’ve made great moves this offseason to improve even more.
2. Their quarterback Russell Wilson thrives under pressure and is capable of rising up to any challenge.
3. The Vegas pay-out is better than the actual odds.
Now, onto the talent of the team.
Here’s some stats to consider.
Football Outsiders, a company that specializes in football advanced statistical analysis, uses a statistic called Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, or DVOA for short. They review each play from each team during the season and give it a positive or negative value, and then adjust for the quality of the opponent. The Seahawks finished 2012 as the best team in the league in this metric. Finishing strong in DVOA is a huge indicator of future success.
How about Cold Hard Football Facts’ Passer Rating Differential? It’s the difference between a team’s offensive passer rating and the passer rating the defense allows to opposing QBs. 70% of all Super Bowl champions finished in the top 3 in the league in this stat. Last year the Seahawks were #2. That means they are a great passing team and are great at stopping the pass. That’s a recipe for success in today’s pass-driven NFL.
Want a more traditional stat? The defense led the league in fewest points allowed last year.
This is just a glimpse of how good their roster was.
Fast forward to this offseason. They traded for one of the best playmaking WRs in the NFL in Percy Harvin. Before he went down last year with a sprained ankle, he led the league in receptions and yards after the catch and was considered a leading MVP candidate. And this was with one of the worst QBs in the league. Combine him with Russell Wilson and the creative play-calling of OC Darrell Bevell and the sky is the limit on what this offense can do.
They also added two pass rushers. If there was one knock on the defense last year, it was that they didn’t have a consistent pass rush and very little depth behind their starters. Chris Clemons, their best pass rusher, got injured during the playoffs. The same thing could happen again this year, but now that they added two excellent pass rushers, they will be able to overcome a loss like that. And if nobody gets hurt, the overall team pass rush will improve exponentially.
Football Outsiders did a study a few years ago and came to the conclusion that the best way to improve a defense, even an already good one, is to add pass rushers. They wont take sacks away from other players; they will simply add more on their own.
They will have an effective pass rush to go along with the best secondary in the NFL. In the last two years, all four starting defensive backs were either Pro Bowlers or 1st Team All Pros, which means they are the very best at their position in the league. They are a major part of the reason the Seahawks were #2 in the league in Passer Rating Differential.
Now let’s talk a little bit about their star QB Russell Wilson.
He had a phenomenal rookie year last year, despite not getting many reps with the first team offense during training camp and the preseason. Head coach Pete Carroll limited the playbook to bring him along slowly during the first half of the year. Yet he still managed to tie Peyton Manning’s all time rookie TD record (and about a third of the interceptions), and broke the previous rookie record for passer rating. How did he do that with a slow start? An amazing finish over the final 8 games.
He showed incredible improvement week to week. His leadership and work ethics are off the charts. He took every win and loss as an opportunity to learn from it and grow. With a full offseason, training camp, and preseason working with the first team offense, you can be assured he will show even more improvement over the way he finished last year. The biggest improvement made by NFL players is usually between their first and second years.
Not that he even needs to improve (but he will). Consider these clutch situations.
Week 13 at the Chicago Bears. Going into this game, the Bears had the best defense in the league, statistically one of the best all time. The Bears led by 4 with about 3 minutes left. This was considered to be the time when they took the “training wheels” off Wilson. He led an impressive 97 yard TD drive to take the lead. Unfortunately the Bears offense still had time to kick a field goal. Or was that unfortunate? Maybe not. It gave Wilson a chance to shine once more, this time in over time. He led another impressive drive, 80 yards for the game winning TD.
Then there’s the playoff game at the Washington Redskins. The Redskins jumped out to an early 14-0 lead. Did Wilson panic? No. He led a comeback and the Seahawks won 24-14. This was the Seahawks first road playoff win in 30 years. And it was led by a rookie QB.
The next week at the Atlanta Falcons was perhaps his most impressive comeback. The Seahawks had been physically drained from two cross country flights within a week and it showed as they got off to a slow start. They trailed 20-0 at halftime. Did Wilson panic? No, he rose to the occasion once more and led a remarkable comeback. With 30 seconds left, the Seahawks scored the go-ahead touchdown and took the lead 28-27. His only mistake was leaving 30 seconds on the clock.
He's at his best in pressure situations. Great quarterbacks win championships, and Russell Wilson has greatness written all over him.
Now lets talk about betting on the Super Bowl.
According to Vegas casinos, the odds (or payout) for the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl is 10 to 1. Now consider the expected value, which is the payout compared to the odds of winning.
Lets say for example you have a 10% chance of winning something and the payout is 10 to 1. If you keep making that bet, over time you’ll break even. If you have a 20% chance of winning, and still have a 10 to 1 payout, over time you’ll make twice as much money as you bet. Do this bet just once, and get it right, and you’ll have 10 times what you bet.
Based on what I’ve already told you, you should feel confident the Seahawks have at least a 20% chance of winning the next Super Bowl. That’s a bet worth making with 10 to 1 odds.
Wouldn’t Vegas already know how good the Seahawks are and adjust their odds accordingly?
Not necessarily. They balance actual odds with perceived hype. If lots of people are putting money down on certain teams, they adjust the payout so as to not lose money if that team wins. With Seattle’s remote location in comparison to the rest of the country, they don’t get as much national recognition and therefore most people don’t realize just how good they are, and don’t bet on them.
You don’t even need to travel to Vegas to place your bet. You can do it online from the comfort of your own home. There are numerous sports gambling sites.
So now that you know that Russell Wilson is a great QB capable of rising up to any challenge and surrounded by the most talented team in the NFL, you should use this information to improve your short-term financial future by taking advantage of Vegas’s inaccurate odds and place money on the Seahawks winning the next Super Bowl. I know I’m going to.
By a show of hands, how many of you like football?
Okay, and how many of you like money?
All of you? Excellent. Me too.
I’m going to combine the two and financially benefit from my favorite NFL team’s success this year, and it’s my intent today to extend the opportunity for all of you to benefit as well. I’m going to explain to you why it’s a good financial investment to bet on the Seahawks to win the next Super Bowl.
I’m going to cover three main points.
1. They have the most talented team in the NFL. They were so close last year, and they’ve made great moves this offseason to improve even more.
2. Their quarterback Russell Wilson thrives under pressure and is capable of rising up to any challenge.
3. The Vegas pay-out is better than the actual odds.
Now, onto the talent of the team.
Here’s some stats to consider.
Football Outsiders, a company that specializes in football advanced statistical analysis, uses a statistic called Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, or DVOA for short. They review each play from each team during the season and give it a positive or negative value, and then adjust for the quality of the opponent. The Seahawks finished 2012 as the best team in the league in this metric. Finishing strong in DVOA is a huge indicator of future success.
How about Cold Hard Football Facts’ Passer Rating Differential? It’s the difference between a team’s offensive passer rating and the passer rating the defense allows to opposing QBs. 70% of all Super Bowl champions finished in the top 3 in the league in this stat. Last year the Seahawks were #2. That means they are a great passing team and are great at stopping the pass. That’s a recipe for success in today’s pass-driven NFL.
Want a more traditional stat? The defense led the league in fewest points allowed last year.
This is just a glimpse of how good their roster was.
Fast forward to this offseason. They traded for one of the best playmaking WRs in the NFL in Percy Harvin. Before he went down last year with a sprained ankle, he led the league in receptions and yards after the catch and was considered a leading MVP candidate. And this was with one of the worst QBs in the league. Combine him with Russell Wilson and the creative play-calling of OC Darrell Bevell and the sky is the limit on what this offense can do.
They also added two pass rushers. If there was one knock on the defense last year, it was that they didn’t have a consistent pass rush and very little depth behind their starters. Chris Clemons, their best pass rusher, got injured during the playoffs. The same thing could happen again this year, but now that they added two excellent pass rushers, they will be able to overcome a loss like that. And if nobody gets hurt, the overall team pass rush will improve exponentially.
Football Outsiders did a study a few years ago and came to the conclusion that the best way to improve a defense, even an already good one, is to add pass rushers. They wont take sacks away from other players; they will simply add more on their own.
They will have an effective pass rush to go along with the best secondary in the NFL. In the last two years, all four starting defensive backs were either Pro Bowlers or 1st Team All Pros, which means they are the very best at their position in the league. They are a major part of the reason the Seahawks were #2 in the league in Passer Rating Differential.
Now let’s talk a little bit about their star QB Russell Wilson.
He had a phenomenal rookie year last year, despite not getting many reps with the first team offense during training camp and the preseason. Head coach Pete Carroll limited the playbook to bring him along slowly during the first half of the year. Yet he still managed to tie Peyton Manning’s all time rookie TD record (and about a third of the interceptions), and broke the previous rookie record for passer rating. How did he do that with a slow start? An amazing finish over the final 8 games.
He showed incredible improvement week to week. His leadership and work ethics are off the charts. He took every win and loss as an opportunity to learn from it and grow. With a full offseason, training camp, and preseason working with the first team offense, you can be assured he will show even more improvement over the way he finished last year. The biggest improvement made by NFL players is usually between their first and second years.
Not that he even needs to improve (but he will). Consider these clutch situations.
Week 13 at the Chicago Bears. Going into this game, the Bears had the best defense in the league, statistically one of the best all time. The Bears led by 4 with about 3 minutes left. This was considered to be the time when they took the “training wheels” off Wilson. He led an impressive 97 yard TD drive to take the lead. Unfortunately the Bears offense still had time to kick a field goal. Or was that unfortunate? Maybe not. It gave Wilson a chance to shine once more, this time in over time. He led another impressive drive, 80 yards for the game winning TD.
Then there’s the playoff game at the Washington Redskins. The Redskins jumped out to an early 14-0 lead. Did Wilson panic? No. He led a comeback and the Seahawks won 24-14. This was the Seahawks first road playoff win in 30 years. And it was led by a rookie QB.
The next week at the Atlanta Falcons was perhaps his most impressive comeback. The Seahawks had been physically drained from two cross country flights within a week and it showed as they got off to a slow start. They trailed 20-0 at halftime. Did Wilson panic? No, he rose to the occasion once more and led a remarkable comeback. With 30 seconds left, the Seahawks scored the go-ahead touchdown and took the lead 28-27. His only mistake was leaving 30 seconds on the clock.
He's at his best in pressure situations. Great quarterbacks win championships, and Russell Wilson has greatness written all over him.
Now lets talk about betting on the Super Bowl.
According to Vegas casinos, the odds (or payout) for the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl is 10 to 1. Now consider the expected value, which is the payout compared to the odds of winning.
Lets say for example you have a 10% chance of winning something and the payout is 10 to 1. If you keep making that bet, over time you’ll break even. If you have a 20% chance of winning, and still have a 10 to 1 payout, over time you’ll make twice as much money as you bet. Do this bet just once, and get it right, and you’ll have 10 times what you bet.
Based on what I’ve already told you, you should feel confident the Seahawks have at least a 20% chance of winning the next Super Bowl. That’s a bet worth making with 10 to 1 odds.
Wouldn’t Vegas already know how good the Seahawks are and adjust their odds accordingly?
Not necessarily. They balance actual odds with perceived hype. If lots of people are putting money down on certain teams, they adjust the payout so as to not lose money if that team wins. With Seattle’s remote location in comparison to the rest of the country, they don’t get as much national recognition and therefore most people don’t realize just how good they are, and don’t bet on them.
You don’t even need to travel to Vegas to place your bet. You can do it online from the comfort of your own home. There are numerous sports gambling sites.
So now that you know that Russell Wilson is a great QB capable of rising up to any challenge and surrounded by the most talented team in the NFL, you should use this information to improve your short-term financial future by taking advantage of Vegas’s inaccurate odds and place money on the Seahawks winning the next Super Bowl. I know I’m going to.
