It's not too late

[Recon_Hawk]

I've got news for you, if you took Geno off this team this year and replaced him with a rookie QB? We are a bad team.

I've got news for you. Paying him $35M (as opposed to $7M, now) a year makes us a worst team then we are now.

We don't have Diggs. We don't have Unchenna. We don't have Noah Fant. We don't have Tyler Lockett. (I'm guessing they make up the ~$28M difference)

Opportunity cost is a real thing.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I've got news for you. Paying him $35M a year makes us a worst team then we are now.

Opportunity cost is a real thing.

Taking a top 5 QB in the league off our team makes us a worse team?

That's some crazy logic my friend.

It's OK to not be sold on Geno, a lot of fans are. But he's playing at a Pro Bowl level, and has been all year. I have no problem paying him 30M+ next year and focusing ALL our draft and free agent signings to improve this god awful defense.

 

[Ozzy]

Oh man, I sure hope not. Not with how desperate this front seven is for playmakers and bullies.

Look no further than the success hit rate on top 10 QB's taken in the last decade or so. It's not good. Burrow has been the only sure fire hit, and maybe Tua. But that's it.

This is a once in a decade + opportunity to draft a REAL difference maker. I sure hope we don't gamble on a young QB. Sure, if there's one Pete and John like later in the 1st or 2nd? Like Richardson out of Florida? I'm fine with that.

I don’t see it either but if he falls in love with one enough to pass on a guy like Carter then that tells you he thinks whoever it is is a generational guy and I would trust him.
I love the idea of Carter and then a guy like Richardson who could sit for a year or two behind Geno. That is probably my dream scenario

 

[Recon_Hawk]

Taking a top 5 QB in the league off our team makes us a worse team?

That's some crazy logic my friend.

It's OK to not be sold on Geno, a lot of fans are. But he's playing at a Pro Bowl level, and has been all year. I have no problem paying him 30M+ next year and focusing ALL our draft and free agent signings to improve this god awful defense.

I never said that. I said paying Smith an extra $27M makes us a worst team. You need to realize that paying Geno at a top 5 salary prevents us from signing other players.

Its not a question on whether I'm sold on Geno or not. It's whether paying Geno long term, top 5 QB money is better than slending tbat at other positions, like the defensive line.

Analytics show overspending at the QB spot doesn't lead to superbowl victories. I want the best chance at winning it all and the evidence proves a QB on a first time contract provides the biggest advantage.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Analytics show overspending at the QB spot doesn't lead to superbowl victories. I want the best chance at winning it all and the evidence proves a QB on a first time contract provides the biggest advantage.

The Rams just did it last year. The Bucs did it a couple years prior to that. The Broncos did it in 2016.

Paying your above average QB doesn't = can't win in the NFL.

This mindset that the ONLY way to win is to have a QB on his rookie deal is flat out wrong. In fact, Russell and Mahomes are the only QB's to win on their rookie deal over the past 15 years. They're the outliers.

Now if Geno wants 35-40M on a massive 4-5 year deal with 150M+ guaranteed? No thank you. But if we can get him on a 2-3 year deal for a reasonable front loaded 30-35M with an out after two years while we use all this draft capital to fill the MANY holes on the defense?

I'm down with that.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I love the idea of Carter and then a guy like Richardson who could sit for a year or two behind Geno. That is probably my dream scenario

Me too. I think Richardson will probably go in the 20's. Which is where we should be if John and Pete like what they see in him.

But honestly, I haven't been impressed with CJ Stroud, and I haven't seen any of Will Levis to have a strong opinion on him. These would be the two top QB's taken after we assume Bryce Young is taken with the 1st overall pick.

 

[Maui12thman]

You play to win the game. When mathematically eliminated, it’s time to take a look at Lock. But play to win, build some momentum, and let the chips fall with regard to the draft. Actually, if Geno plays a couple clunkers, it only gives the team a little bit of leverage with contract negotiations.

 

[RiverDog]

It's OK to not be sold on Geno, a lot of fans are. But he's playing at a Pro Bowl level, and has been all year. I have no problem paying him 30M+ next year and focusing ALL our draft and free agent signings to improve this god awful defense.

Geno hasn't been playing at a Pro Bowl level lately:

On film, Smith is simply not taking care of the ball as well as he was early in the season. For a while now Smith has too often appeared over-aggressive, trying to throw dimes tight windows at a high rate, extending plays too long and not maintaining ball security in the red zone. It hasn’t worked out well for him or his team. These numbers from Pro Football Focus illustrate how much Smith’s recklessness with the ball has hurt Seattle.

Geno Smith Weeks 1-4: 5th in EPA/play, 30.9 total EPA Weeks 5-14: 18th in EPA/play, 29.7 total EPA Mistakes have been killers, with Geno losing more expected points to INTs, sacks and fumbles since Week 5 than any other quarterback

And those QB's include #3 in blue and orange.

PFF: Geno Smith mistakes have been killing the Seahawks since Week 5

These numbers from Pro Football Focus illustrate how much Smith’s recklessness with the ball has hurt Seattle.

seahawkswire.usatoday.com

 

[RiverDog]

Having made the above statement, I don't feel that Geno's play during the past few months is the root cause of our problems. Our protection hasn't been as good and especially in the past 4 games, our running game has disappeared, and not many QB's are going to perform at a high level in the absence of at least a respectable running game. But let's not kid ourselves. Contrary to what others have said, Geno is not a credible MVP candidate and is not playing at a Pro Bowl level.

 

[Recon_Hawk]

The Rams just did it last year. The Bucs did it a couple years prior to that. The Broncos did it in 2016.

Paying your above average QB doesn't = can't win in the NFL.

This mindset that the ONLY way to win is to have a QB on his rookie deal is flat out wrong. In fact, Russell and Mahomes are the only QB's to win on their rookie deal over the past 15 years. They're the outliers.

Now if Geno wants 35-40M on a massive 4-5 year deal with 150M+ guaranteed? No thank you. But if we can get him on a 2-3 year deal for a reasonable front loaded 30-35M with an out after two years while we use all this draft capital to fill the MANY holes on the defense?

I'm down with that.

This will be a tough debate unless we are discuss hard figures.

I assume when you call Geno a top-5 QB that means he will be paid as a top 5 QB. That puts him at a minimum $35M a year contract with a healthy signing bonus. Arguing for anything else gets to be a debate in fantasy.

I never said anything about the ONLY way to win is with a young QB. Simply that for the last ten years, around half of the teams making the superbowl had a QB on their first contract. That's easier to predict than assuming we can get Tom Brady at a discount rate ($25M in 2021) or be the first team to have $60M in dead cap space and still win, like the rams who are learning what it means to go all in one year and face the consequences for the years after.

 

[GemCity]

Additionally, I'm open to Carroll starting Drew Lock down the stretch to see what we have there. The team knows what they're getting with Geno.

I’m actually hoping this happens. What better way to know what you’ve got?

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Geno hasn't been playing at a Pro Bowl level lately:

On film, Smith is simply not taking care of the ball as well as he was early in the season. For a while now Smith has too often appeared over-aggressive, trying to throw dimes tight windows at a high rate, extending plays too long and not maintaining ball security in the red zone. It hasn’t worked out well for him or his team. These numbers from Pro Football Focus illustrate how much Smith’s recklessness with the ball has hurt Seattle.

Geno Smith Weeks 1-4: 5th in EPA/play, 30.9 total EPA Weeks 5-14: 18th in EPA/play, 29.7 total EPA Mistakes have been killers, with Geno losing more expected points to INTs, sacks and fumbles since Week 5 than any other quarterback

And those QB's include #3 in blue and orange.

PFF: Geno Smith mistakes have been killing the Seahawks since Week 5

These numbers from Pro Football Focus illustrate how much Smith’s recklessness with the ball has hurt Seattle.

seahawkswire.usatoday.com

Even with two picks yesterday, Geno remains in the top 5 in most statistical categories.

2022

Seahawks

71.5

3,433

25

8

106.8

So not sure where PFF is getting their "recklessness" opinion.

It's hard for any QB to maintain ball security and not take chances when they're playing from behind because their defense is terrible and they have no run game to balance out their offense.

Is he pressing? Yep. Again, as would most QB's down 17-0 in the 1st quarter.

 

[massari]

You know who else was drafted around #10 the past decade?

Justin Field
Desmond Ridder
Mac Jones
Dwayne Haskins
Josh Rosen
EJ Manuel
Ryan Tannahill
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert


You guys keep assuming it'll be another Mahomes, when we all know the percentages of this are extremely low. More likely it'd be another Rosen, Haskins or Tannahill.

But I do trust Schneider, if he identifies a QB he's completely in love with? Then I guess I'll have to trust him.

IMO Geno's proven he can run this offense efficiently and score points to win games, IF like most QB's he has a good run game and defense. Doesn't mean we shouldn't draft a QB next year, but gamble the #2 or #3 pick on one that even if halfway decent wouldn't be ready to do what Geno's doing THIS year for 2-3 years?

Eh, idk man.

A round 2 or 3 pick? You guys keep assuming it'll be another Jalen Hurts, or that picking a position other than QB is a lock to pan out. If you're concerned about the hit rate being so low around a top 10 pick QB, picking one after the 1st round is basically throwing the pick away.

You have to pick a QB somewhere, and around the top 10 seems like the best spot to do it.

Mahomes
Allen
Herbert
Kyler
Watson
Burrow
Tua
Lawrence

But if you believe a $35M-$40M APY 33 year old Geno can keep this up for many more years, and make deep playoff runs in the future, then I guess they won't need to pick one.

 

[billbird2111]

I don't root for quitters, and neither should you.

It is grounds for instant dismissal of every single individual involved.

Tanking is detestable.

This is a good response. As a 49er fan, I agree. It also doesn't work.

You can draft well without having a bunch of high draft picks. Look at the 49ers. They had no #1 pick in the 2022 draft. Did it matter? Nope.

Case in point, the 49ers drafted DL Drake Jackson in the 2nd Round. He's now part of the starting eight DL's that the 49ers rotate in and out of the game. WR Danny Gray was drafted in Round 3. He's played quite a bit. Guard Spencer Burford was picked in the 4th round. He's a starter. And then, of course, there was Brock Purdy in Round 7. He's now the starting 49ers QB.

Not one high pick in that draft. Yet three are starting and one other is contributing. That's not bad.

By the way, I've come to the Seahawks page because every single Seahawks fan that used to visit the 49ers Webzone has vanished. They stopped posting weeks ago. We miss them.

 

[Lords of Scythia]

Tanking is fan fantasy. You're always far better off establishing winning, in real life. Especially since that Denver one is looking like a top three pick. The Denver two will almost be in the first round. We could get a great qb in second round or later that can develop behind Geno. You think this organization needs our own first round pick to be in the top 10 to get a great player? Where did we draft Woolen, Walker, Metcalf--the entire HOF LOB defense?

 

[Sgt. Largent]

This will be a tough debate unless we are discuss hard figures.

I assume when you call Geno a top-5 QB that means he will be paid as a top 5 QB. That puts him at a minimum $35M a year contract with a healthy signing bonus. Arguing for anything else gets to be a debate in fantasy.

I never said anything about the ONLY way to win is with a young QB. Simply that for the last ten years, around half of the teams making the superbowl had a QB on their first contract. That's easier to predict than assuming we can get Tom Brady at a discount rate ($25M in 2021) or be the first team to have $60M in dead cap space and still win, like the rams who are learning what it means to go all in one year and face the consequences for the years after.

We would all take what the Rams are going through if it meant another SB win.

And yes, this is a debate we can put on hold until we see what Geno makes, either here or elsewhere.......and we really have no idea what Geno will make. We know what he'll ask for, but his case is really unprecedented so we can't assume top 5 = top 5 paid.

Because those top 5 QB's earned it over a much longer period of sustained success. So me thinks Geno's not going to find teams in free agency that will be willing to commit top 5 QB money to him. Maybe in a couple years if he sustains this success and stays healthy.

 

[ElvisInBlue]

You know who else was drafted around #10 the past decade?

Justin Field
Desmond Ridder
Mac Jones
Dwayne Haskins
Josh Rosen
EJ Manuel
Ryan Tannahill
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert


You guys keep assuming it'll be another Mahomes, when we all know the percentages of this are extremely low. More likely it'd be another Rosen, Haskins or Tannahill.

But I do trust Schneider, if he identifies a QB he's completely in love with? Then I guess I'll have to trust him.

IMO Geno's proven he can run this offense efficiently and score points to win games, IF like most QB's he has a good run game and defense. Doesn't mean we shouldn't draft a QB next year, but gamble the #2 or #3 pick on one that even if halfway decent wouldn't be ready to do what Geno's doing THIS year for 2-3 years?

Eh, idk man.

DL is in no bed of roses either.

DL picks in the Top Ten 11-21:

Worthy of the pick:
Nick Bosa
Myles Garrett
Joey Bosa
DeForest Buckner

Unworthy:
Derrick Brown
Chase Young
Ed Oliver
Clelin Ferrell
Quinnen Williams
Bradley Chubb
Solomon Thomas
Dante Fowler Jr.
Leonard Williams
Jadeveon Clowney
Ezekiel Ansah
Dion Jordan
Aldon Smith
Marcell Dareus

Admittedly some of the unworthy are serviceable to solid, but surely didn’t live up to the expectations.

Top ten QBs have too much pressure to slide into that category. It’s boom or bust with a slight chance to fade into the background as a back up.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

DL is in no bed of roses either.

DL picks in the Top Ten 11-21:

Worthy of the pick:
Nick Bosa
Myles Garrett
Joey Bosa
DeForest Buckner

Unworthy:
Derrick Brown
Chase Young
Ed Oliver
Clelin Ferrell
Quinnen Williams
Bradley Chubb
Solomon Thomas
Dante Fowler Jr.
Leonard Williams
Jadeveon Clowney
Ezekiel Ansah
Dion Jordan
Aldon Smith
Marcell Dareus

Admittedly some of the unworthy are serviceable to solid, but surely didn’t live up to the expectations.

Top ten QBs have too much pressure to slide into that category. It’s boom or bust with a slight chance to fade into the background as a back up.

huh? MOST of the lineman you put in the "unworthy" category are and some still are very good D-lineman. So I'm confused about this one, you're proving my point, not yours. MUCH higher hit rate on D-linemen difference makers than QB's.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Chase young is 23 years old, and a damn good player. Unworthy?
Bradley Chubb is 26, also damn good.
There's some pretty damn good lineman on that "unworthy" list. And guys who had solid careers.

 

[RiverDog]

Even with two picks yesterday, Geno remains in the top 5 in most statistical categories.

2022

Seahawks

71.5

3,433

25

8

106.8

So not sure where PFF is getting their "recklessness" opinion.

It's hard for any QB to maintain ball security and not take chances when they're playing from behind because their defense is terrible and they have no run game to balance out their offense.

Is he pressing? Yep. Again, as would most QB's down 17-0 in the 1st quarter.

To be honest, I don't know how PFF works their EPA average, either. It's probably like ESPN's QB rating, uses some type of subjective criteria. But PFF is the undeniable gold standard when it comes to professional football analysis, and since it aligned with what my eyeballs have been telling me, I went ahead and posted it.