It's not too late

[Sgt. Largent]

I don’t think any in the 2nd category are consistent game wreckers and thats what most on here are calling for with the first pick. Some have flashed and some have been steady, but we’re talking about a top 10 pick here.

DL is a safer pick in that the floor is lower, but you can’t argue the high ceiling of hitting on a franchise QB.

I'd take just about any of them over the scrubs on our defensive line right now.

 

[ElvisInBlue]

I'd take just about any of them over the scrubs on our defensive line right now.

Same, but says more about our team than the ROI of top 10 draft investments.

 

[IndyHawk]

I'm not going to go so far as calling Geno's recent performances "pretty damn good" no matter what qualifier you want to attach to it. He's not playing like dog crap, but he's not carrying the team, either. He's playing like what you'd expect from a .500ish, mediocre club.

Fair enough..We all have our own opinion(s)
I cannot recall any QB "Carrying a team" by himself with a zero running game and no defense.
Some will think the guy in Denver did but no because he had a defense to help.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Same, but says more about our team than the ROI of top 10 draft investments.

It says everything about the ROI draft investments, as in you NEED to draft difference makers on the D-line high. Or else your D-line looks a lot like ours.

Look at most of the best D-lines in the league right now, they're full of high picks.

2022 NFL defensive line rankings: Los Angeles Rams take top spot, Tampa Bay Buccaneers land at No. 5 | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

PFF's Ben Linsey ranks the NFL's defensive lines, which features the Los Angeles Rams at the top spot.

www.pff.com

 

[ElvisInBlue]

It says everything about the ROI draft investments, as in you NEED to draft difference makers on the D-line high. Or else your D-line looks a lot like ours.

Look at most of the best D-lines in the league right now, they're full of high picks.

2022 NFL defensive line rankings: Los Angeles Rams take top spot, Tampa Bay Buccaneers land at No. 5 | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

PFF's Ben Linsey ranks the NFL's defensive lines, which features the Los Angeles Rams at the top spot.

www.pff.com

Rams @ #1: 1 Top ten pick (and it’s not Donald)
Commies @#2: Top ten pick isn’t playing
Packers @#3: Zero top ten picks
Stealers @#4: Zero top ten picks
Bucs @#5: Zero top ten picks
9ers @#6: Bosa

Plenty of first round picks on those lines, however, really only one impactful one that’s a top 10.

I‘d say that argues to spending the 1st R1 on a QB (if the right guys there) and the 2nd R1 on a DL.

 

[RiverDog]

Fair enough..We all have our own opinion(s)
I cannot recall any QB "Carrying a team" by himself with a zero running game and no defense.
Some will think the guy in Denver did but no because he had a defense to help.

Yeah, I doubt that there were very many QB's that have played well enough to make up for both a defense and running game ranked in the bottom 5 as ours have been in the past 4 games, so in that sense, no quarterback 'carries' his team. That might be one of the things that has been getting Geno in trouble, that he's trying to do too much by taking more risks.

But nor has his play been would I'd consider as "pretty dam good", either, more pedestrian than Pro Bowl-type play.

 

[IndyHawk]

Yeah, I doubt that there were very many QB's that have played well enough to make up for both a defense and running game ranked in the bottom 5 as ours have been in the past 4 games, so in that sense, no quarterback 'carries' his team. That might be one of the things that has been getting Geno in trouble, that he's trying to do too much by taking more risks.

But nor has his play been would I'd consider as "pretty dam good", either, more pedestrian than Pro Bowl-type play.

Did you feel the same way when we were running good and the D was average?
(During the 4 game winning streak)

 

[RiverDog]

Haha. It fits my opinion so I'm linking it up?

I respect that.

PFF is weird, they use weird stats in their grading system.

I did a little research into this "Expected Points" and "Expected Points Added", or EPA that I referenced earlier. Apparently, it's a metric that ESPN created some time ago:

Based on statistical analysis of 10 years of NFL play-by-play data, ESPN has created a formula that assigns an "expected points" value to the team with the ball at the start of each play based on the game situation. Expected points (EP) accounts for factors such as down, distance to go, field position, home-field advantage and time remaining.

The value it puts out is on a scale from about minus-3 to 7, and it basically represents "which team is likely to score next, and how many points?" It represents the likely points not just on the current drive but also on the next drive or any subsequent drive until the score changes or the half ends. A lower value indicates a more favorable situation for the defense (i.e. fourth-and-20 from your own 1-yard line could be close to minus-3 EP), and a higher value represents a more favorable situation for the offense (i.e. first-and-goal is generally worth 6 EP).

Without going into technical details, the key is that the relationships in the EP formula encapsulate the basic tenets of football, including:

• Being closer to the opposing goal line and farther from your own is better

• Earlier downs are better (first-and-10 is better than second-and-10, etc.)

• Shorter distance to go is better

• Being at home is better

The benefit of having this EP value at the start of each play is that it can be used to measure the success of that play by comparing it to the EP value at the start of the next play. Good offensive plays such as first downs generally increase EP; losses or incomplete passes generally decrease it. This difference in EP from one play to the next is called expected points added (EPA). Because of all it accounts for and its points scale, EPA is a very accurate measure of how each play affects potential changes on the scoreboard.

Expected points and EPA explained

Alok Pattani of ESPN Stats & Information Group explains ESPN's new expected points metric.

www.espn.com