Geno Trade Value?

[bigcc]

If a team were willing to give us anything for Geno, I'd want to take it. I don't think he's worth what he's set to be paid on his current contract. He's a backup or a low-level starter, and no one is paying him $20M+ to serve in that role. If I'm wrong, great. Take whatever we can get. If there are no offers by the day his 2024 contract would be guaranteed, just cut him and be done. Let another team sign him to a lower contract. We can too but I hope we don't.

Agree 100 percent

Also, people need to give it up with lock. Dude sucks lol, he's a decent back up option and that's honestly his ceiling.

 

[bigcc]

Notbody is trading for Geno to be their starter. 6th rounder for backup insurance reasons only

Nobody is giving up a 6th to pay geno that much to be a backup

 

[Rat]

I don't think he's bad, but I don't see a lot of fits for him. Most of the QB-needy teams are going to want young guys. Cousins will probably take another candidate away, Baker also (although he could also create one).

 

[Parallax]

I don't think he's bad, but I don't see a lot of fits for him. Most of the QB-needy teams are going to want young guys. Cousins will probably take another candidate away, Baker also (although he could also create one).

Baker will likely get a contract worth $20M to $30M per year. He's got a lot more potential than Geno. Lock has physical tools that are on par but he's not yet shown himself capable of making smart choices under pressure for more than a drive at a time. Of course Mayfield didn't either until he came under the tutelage of Sean McVey. Could Lock grow along a similar trajectory? I don't know. It's not likely. Mayfield surprised most folks. But I'd like to find out. If we get an offensive coordinator who does magic with QBs, it would be a great experiment.

 

[WarHawks]

If we need a stopgap qb until our qbotf is ready, I would prefer a vet on a one or two year deal who knows he'll be competing with the rookie for the starting job. It doesn't really matter who it is in that scenario.

 

[bigcc]

Baker will likely get a contract worth $20M to $30M per year. He's got a lot more potential than Geno. Lock has physical tools that are on par but he's not yet shown himself capable of making smart choices under pressure for more than a drive at a time. Of course Mayfield didn't either until he came under the tutelage of Sean McVey. Could Lock grow along a similar trajectory? I don't know. It's not likely. Mayfield surprised most folks. But I'd like to find out. If we get an offensive coordinator who does magic with QBs, it would be a great experiment.

Baker threw for 11115 yards and 75/43 td/int his first 3 years.

He went 23-22 those first 3 years, taking over for a team that was 4-44 the 3 years prior, including 0-16 the year directly before baker.

Mcvay didn't do shit for baker lol, if you meant Canales that makes a bit more sense,but like I just explained, baker has never been a "bad" qb, I'm not entirely sure why people seem so quick to write him off.

Lock will never even be in the same tier of qb as baker. Dude really isn't good and I really don't understand why people would assume otherwise.

He's had 9 games where he threw 1+ tds and no ints (seven of those only 1 td), to match the 9 games he's thrown MORE ints than tds (four of those the difference in td-int was more than one).

In context of ever being a starter, the dude sucks lmao, zero tears will be shed if we don't resign him.

 

[bigcc]

In regards to geno's value, it doesn't help that this is a very deep qb class.

It's unlikely we'd get anything

 

[Maelstrom787]

I'd put his market value at a second round pick currently.

Matt Ryan got the Falcons a third rounder in his penultimate season, and Matt's previous 3 years at that point were analogous to Geno's 2023 season. Geno has more left in the tank than Matt Ryan did and has led 2 flawed teams to winning records in consecutive seasons. He also has a relatively friendly contract for a mid to upper-mid range starter.

Second rounder minimum if they really want to move him. Second plus a sweetener if it's a late second in 2024. Ideally, you play hardball and try to get a Sam Bradford (1st and 4th lol) trade, but I don't think anyone bites on that.

Hell of a lot easier to just keep him and see what he can do with a retooled offense that puts more emphasis on helping us move the chains with the run game. Also makes it so we don't have to throw a potential rookie into the fire, but can remain competitive during that first year.

 

[Parallax]

In regards to geno's value, it doesn't help that this is a very deep qb class.

It's unlikely we'd get anything

Is it that deep? You've got the three guys at the top who clearly go early (Williams, Daniels, Maye). Then you've got several who could go anywhere from middle of round one to fourth round (Penix, Nix, McCarthy, Rattler). Then another tier beneath them (maybe Hartman, Milton, Pratt). Whom have I left out? A number of guys who might have been in this class elected to return to school.

Given the hit rate on QBs in the first round and those who go lower, there's no guarantee a single successful franchise guy will come from this class. If one of the top three pans out and everyone else became a backup or got cut within a few years, that would be par for the course. Amazing to think back on the "83 class which had Elway, Marino, Kelly, Eason, Blackledge and O'Brien. Three hall of famers and arguably six franchise guys. Blackledge fell short of expectations given his lofty draft status but all had a number of decent years. Far better than what we've seen of late.

2021 was said to be similar because there were so many highly rated guys and one, Lawrence, was, like Elway, said to be a generational talent of the kind that comes along every 25 or so years. That was probably true of Elway, though he probably wasn't be of his class. If redrafted, my guess is Marino goes first. But Lawrence doesn't look generational three years later and none of the other guys who went in the first round appears to have a QB1 future. Maybe Fields. Maybe! Wilson's a bust. Lance is a bust. Mac Jones is a bust. Maybe one of those guys will surprise yet but at this point no one expects it.

 

[Parallax]

I'd put his market value at a second round pick currently.

Matt Ryan got the Falcons a third rounder in his penultimate season, and Matt's previous 3 years at that point were analogous to Geno's 2023 season. Geno has more left in the tank than Matt Ryan does and has led 2 flawed teams to winning records in consecutive seasons. He also has a relatively friendly contract for a mid to upper-mid range starter.

Second rounder minimum if they really want to move him. Second plus a sweetener if it's a late second in 2024. Ideally, you play hardball and try to get a Sam Bradford (1st and 4th lol) trade, but I don't think anyone bites on that.

Hell of a lot easier to just keep him and see what he can do with a retooled offense that puts more emphasis on helping us move the chains with the run game. Also makes it so we don't have to throw a potential rookie into the fire, but can remain competitive during that first year.

I hope your view is more indicative of the thinking of the typical NFL GM than mine. Where you see value, I see silliness.

 

[Maelstrom787]

I hope your view is more indicative of the thinking of the typical NFL GM than mine. Where you see value, I see silliness.

Considering that it's based solely off of historical precedent, I'd hope so too.

 

[Ozzy]

No one is going to give a second round pick for Geno or even remotely close to that.

 

[Maelstrom787]

No one is going to give a second round pick for Geno or even remotely close to that.

 

[Raifers]

Mcvay didn't do shit for baker lol, if you meant Canales that makes a bit more sense,but like I just explained, baker has never been a "bad" qb, I'm not entirely sure why people seem so quick to write him off.

Lock will never even be in the same tier of qb as baker. Dude really isn't good and I really don't understand why people would assume otherwise.

He's had 9 games where he threw 1+ tds and no ints (seven of those only 1 td), to match the 9 games he's thrown MORE ints than tds (four of those the difference in td-int was more than one).

In context of ever being a starter, the dude sucks lmao, zero tears will be shed if we don't resign him.

Unless the broadcasters were wrong, it was mentioned that McVay helped get bakers mojo back. He probably did help put baker on his path to improving with canales.

As for lock, that’s an unfair take. Geno did much worse before he got his 2nd chance at starting again. It’s about system and fit and your coaches right? So lock should have upside, but whether he reaches it is unknown. As for how much upside he has, that’s debatable but I see similar to Geno with less of a cap hit.

 

[Parallax]

We saw Baker play really well for McVey late in the 2022 season. I thought it was all about McVey and thought the smart move was for him to sign a backup contract there. Didn't think he could repeat it elsewhere. He and Canales proved me wrong but McVey was still the first to pull back the veil on Mayfield's potential.

Was interesting to watch the Pro Bowl. Mayfield was up against Stroud. Stroud was really going for it. Mayfield was taking on low risk throws and wound up beating Stroud by 1 point. Under McVey, however, he was going for it. At least when I was watching. It was often effective.

 

[bigcc]

Is it that deep? You've got the three guys at the top who clearly go early (Williams, Daniels, Maye). Then you've got several who could go anywhere from middle of round one to fourth round (Penix, Nix, McCarthy, Rattler). Then another tier beneath them (maybe Hartman, Milton, Pratt). Whom have I left out? A number of guys who might have been in this class elected to return to school.

Given the hit rate on QBs in the first round and those who go lower, there's no guarantee a single successful franchise guy will come from this class. If one of the top three pans out and everyone else became a backup or got cut within a few years, that would be par for the course. Amazing to think back on the "83 class which had Elway, Marino, Kelly, Eason, Blackledge and O'Brien. Three hall of famers and arguably six franchise guys. Blackledge fell short of expectations given his lofty draft status but all had a number of decent years. Far better than what we've seen of late.

2021 was said to be similar because there were so many highly rated guys and one, Lawrence, was, like Elway, said to be a generational talent of the kind that comes along every 25 or so years. That was probably true of Elway, though he probably wasn't be of his class. If redrafted, my guess is Marino goes first. But Lawrence doesn't look generational three years later and none of the other guys who went in the first round appears to have a QB1 future. Maybe Fields. Maybe! Wilson's a bust. Lance is a bust. Mac Jones is a bust. Maybe one of those guys will surprise yet but at this point no one expects it.

Deep maybe isn't the word, maybe top heavy? Drake jayden and Caleb are going top 8, maybe top 5, penix nix and Mccarthy have all been slotted in the mid first round in various mocks, and I'd be surprised if any make it to the middle of the 2nd round. Rattler and the others aren't relevant to the point I was trying to make.



That's 6 QB's that are going to require a 1st or 2nd round pick, and that's 6 teams that aren't going to trade more picks on the qb spot. They're obviously not all, or even most going to pan out, but I don't think you can justify taking a qb that high AND trading another pick for a qb.



There's also the fact that if we're shopping geno around, that it's likely we'd cut him and then they could sign him possibly cheaper and without getting a pick.



It's not even a slight towards geno's ability, but top heavy qb class, the fact that geno turns 34 like 1/4 into the season, and the fact that he'd have to learn a whole new offense.

 

[Parallax]

Deep maybe isn't the word, maybe top heavy? Drake jayden and Caleb are going top 8, maybe top 5, penix nix and Mccarthy have all been slotted in the mid first round in various mocks, and I'd be surprised if any make it to the middle of the 2nd round. Rattler and the others aren't relevant to the point I was trying to make.



That's 6 QB's that are going to require a 1st or 2nd round pick, and that's 6 teams that aren't going to trade more picks on the qb spot. They're obviously not all, or even most going to pan out, but I don't think you can justify taking a qb that high AND trading another pick for a qb.



There's also the fact that if we're shopping geno around, that it's likely we'd cut him and then they could sign him possibly cheaper and without getting a pick.



It's not even a slight towards geno's ability, but top heavy qb class, the fact that geno turns 34 like 1/4 into the season, and the fact that he'd have to learn a whole new offense.

Yes, I agree. Geno doesn't have any particular appeal. San Francisco tried to insist on major compensation for Garropolo in 2022. No one took them up on it but rather hung back waiting for the guy to be cut. The 49ers took the $20M cap hit to keep him on the roster. The injury to Lance made that look smart until Jimmy was injured too.

My preference would be to shop him around and take the best offer if there is one. But, more likely, when there's not, just cut him. Take the full cap hit this year. Let's get Geno off the books as soon as possible. Same for Adams and Diggs. Dissley too, unless he'll renegotiate. Not sure we should by paying Meyers as if he were the second coming of Gary Anderson or Justin Tucker.

 

[bigcc]

Considering that it's based solely off of historical precedent, I'd hope so too.

You’re out of your mind if you think geno is pulling a 2nd lmaaao

He's turning 34 early in the season dude, he literally wouldn't even get a 7th, if we shop him teams know we'd cut him. He's worthless on the market.

But who knows, I hear the broncos need another qb

 

[bigcc]

Unless the broadcasters were wrong, it was mentioned that McVay helped get bakers mojo back. He probably did help put baker on his path to improving with canales.

As for lock, that’s an unfair take. Geno did much worse before he got his 2nd chance at starting again. It’s about system and fit and your coaches right? So lock should have upside, but whether he reaches it is unknown. As for how much upside he has, that’s debatable but I see similar to Geno with less of a cap hit.

We literally saw lock just last year and he didn't look good despite it being his 4th season. Geno played the first two years, then went 5 years throwing 101 total passes.

The situations literally aren't comparable,and even if they were it's a dumb idea to expect to get lucky twice with it, lock ain't the dude

 

[Maelstrom787]

You’re out of your mind if you think geno is pulling a 2nd lmaaao

He's turning 34 early in the season dude, he literally wouldn't even get a 7th, if we shop him teams know we'd cut him. He's worthless on the market.

But who knows, I hear the broncos need another qb

You know, I could get reacting to my comment like this with derision and laughter if I just posted "second round, f*** you!" but I literally posted the most recent trade that I'm basing this off of, which was for a 36 year old quarterback in obvious arm decline coming off several seasons that were analogous to Geno's 2023 season.

Daunte Culpepper for a second in 2006 and Matt Ryan for a third in 2022 leads me to a second round valuation for Geno currently when considering contract, age, and his 2 season sample of starting play.

If we remove Geno's name from the equation, it sounds better because Geno earned a rep as a draft bust. The trade would be for 2 years of better-than-market-price team control on a mid-range starting quarterback with upside to float into fringe top 10 status on a team that has a complementary defense and running game.

Is the trade something I personally would do as a rival GM? Probably not. I'd try to go young. But there is historical and logical precedent for the valuation I landed at, and it only takes one bite in the same league that saw an obvious bust in Sam Bradford net a first and a fourth rounder from the Vikings within this decade.

PS: Starting quarterbacks are available for trade like this very, very rarely. The trade would be to secure his rights and avoid the competition on the free agent market, which would be significant in the current free agency landscape.