Everyone is blaming the Minny kick unit for the loss...

[SFVikeFan]

I'm actually not all that high on Minnesota's future, I don't see strong fundamentals. Their defense was essentially league average by DVOA, and their offense was perfectly average (0.0 DVOA). In 2015 they were the epitome of an average team. Almost all of their value above average came from special teams, and almost all of that came from a handful of kick returns by Patterson.

As far as their defense goes, it could evolve into a more than solid unit, but it kind of has the feel of a no-name defense. Griffen has good sack totals the past two years but his pass rush repertoire is pedestrian IMO. Minnesota's corners ARE talented, but just average in terms of play. Safety play is tough to evaluate sometimes, but Harrison Smith has failed to get my attention in any Vikings game I've watched. Maybe that's my fault, but I will say that Chancellor got my attention immediately with his playmaking in 2011. Point being, it's very hard to know how good a safety really is sometimes especially if the splash plays aren't in abundance. Remember when the Saints signed "best safety in the NFL" Jairus Byrd? A couple years later Byrd was part of a Saints defense that had the worst defensive DVOA in history.

On offense, the Vikings built everything around a soon to be 31 year old RB. Their OL is a big weakness. Rudolph is a fungible talent. Some of their receivers I like (Mike Wallace especially) but they have the exact wrong QB to take advantage of Mike Wallace's talents. If you look at the Vikings season, their wins and losses are predicted very strongly by AP's success in those games.

Bridgewater is a better decision-maker than Christian Ponder, but otherwise they are two similar QBs. Both are good but not great scramblers. Both lack arm strength and throw an overwhelming percentage of short passes. Both seemed to lack inner fire.

When AP is done being effective, I think Minnesota is going to be in trouble. The Vikings were 6-9 without AP in 2014 with basically the same team they have now.

Long term, I see Minnesota as a team that hovers around .500 over the next five seasons. It's likely that their 11-5 record in 2015 will be a career high for Bridgewater. I don't see his arm-strength or shot-put mechanics or his lack of inner fire changing. It's not that he's a TERRIBLE QB, but he'll only have success against teams that allow it, as he's one of the easiest QBs in the league to game plan.

So for me, if Seattle had lost this game it would have been a bitter pill to swallow. If Seattle loses to a SB caliber opponent it feels like a loss is easier to take, but if they had lost to an average team with an average future like Minny I'd have felt regret over it for years, much like the regret I felt after Seattle dropped one to the paper tiger Falcons in 2012.

Sorry but I don't see it that way at all. From 5 wins in 2013 before Zimmer to 7-9, then 11-5 and NFCN title and #3 seed, just a missed chip shot FG away from beating the NFC defending champs?

Vikings are the #5 defense in the NFL, and ony 1.6 points per game behind Seattle but we don't get the hype or cool nicknames. Sorry you think H. Smith is nothing special, as he was the #1 rated Safety in the NFL by PFF. He can hit, he can cover, he can stop the run, he can blitz. Rhodes doesn't get many INT's but he's a Top 10 CB because he shuts down WR's and doesn't allow many passes his way. Barr is one of the best young LB's in the NFL. MLB Kendricks was outstanding yesterday especially in coverage on underneath routes with 2-3 pass breakups. D. Hunter, the youngest player in the NFL was #2 for sacks by rookies with 6. Linval Joseph is a Top 3 Nose Tackle. Shariff Floyd is very talented but needs to be more consistent. We also have 1st round pick Trae Waynes waiting in the wings.

What all of these players have in common is that outside of 28 yr. old Joseph, they are all 26 years old or younger. They are barely scratching the surface of how good they can be. And Zimmer is a proven defensive guru. Vikings were #32 ranked defense in 2013 before Zimmer arrived, then #11 in 2014 and #5 this year despite a rash of injuries that kept our 3 best players out for several games. A defense with tons of rookies and young players who still need to develop and get experience, but nowhere near peaking.

As for Teddy, who knows how much he will improve as he's handcuffed by Turner's playcalling that forcefeeds AP even when it's obvious it's not working ... but he faced the NFL's best defense, played as well if not better than Wilson and put his team in a position to kick a chipshot FG to beat Seattle. 188/190 times that FG wins the game, Seattle was pretty lucky.

 

[Vancanhawksfan]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/686293089930051586[/tweet]

I already referenced this stat. However this stat cannot apply...every one of those kicks was done in normal temperatures.

A field goal attempt is a precision act...it isn't just the kicker that needs to be on but the snapper and the holder.

Have you ever worked in the bitter cold with your hands? When you can't feel them anymore? Have you ever tried to work some tools or do something that requires dexterity, strength and accuracy in that cold? Most work crews won't even stay out in the cold for any lengthy periods of time at those temps - they would work for 10, 20 or 30 minutes, then come back inside to warm up before going back out. You can become useless if you stay out too long.

The snapper not only has to hit the target on the left shoulder of the holder, but he must spin the ball with precise rotation so that the laces typically do not need to be spun...and his hands would have been frozen by the end of the game (and no one is going to say this of course)

The holder, with his cold hands, must catch it, place it, read the ball, decide if he needs to spin it, and then spin it (or not). And in this case he was wearing gloves when he normally wouldn't. Again...he doesn't have the feel that he normally would, and the gloves add a different element to the hold.

And the kicker...his muscles would undoubtedly be stiffened up by the end of the game. His golf swing is not going to be the same now as it would be in 50 degrees.

This isn't about the short distance of the kick necessarily, rather its the ability of the unit to be able to carry out their duties under abnormal conditions. If something goes awry it doesn't matter if its 27 yards or 67 yards.

I don't think that this is an automatic play because nothing was automatic on that day. The QBs weren't able to even attempt their normal throws. The long snappers for the Seahawks already botched their snaps twice. Headsets weren't working properly. Hell...the Vikings horn shattered because of the cold.


Here we go...I found an article from Advanced Football Analytics:

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytic ... goals.html

Check out the graph on NFL FGs and extreme temperatures in blue (21 - 30 degrees is considered extreme cold...and this isn't even close to what it was yesterday). Accuracy drops off dramatically at those temperatures after 25 yards, and a 28 yard field goal was successful 50% of the time. And yesterday was 25 degrees colder than this analysis.

Based on this evidence alone you could say that statistically you would expect an attempt to be successful less than 50% of the time.

 

[BlueTalon]

I didn't apologize for the luck it took to beat GB when their scrub TE gifted us an onsides, and I am not one bit sad we won like this.

Exactly! Yes, we were lucky, and it is not anything to apologize for.

 

[kearly]

As for Teddy, who knows how much he will improve as he's handcuffed by Turner's playcalling that forcefeeds AP even when it's obvious it's not working ... but he faced the NFL's best defense, played as well if not better than Wilson and put his team in a position to kick a chipshot FG to beat Seattle. 188/190 times that FG wins the game, Seattle was pretty lucky.

Seattle was extremely lucky on the final play.

As for my opinion of the Vikings roster, no need to debate. Time will reveal who is more correct.

Oh, and PFF sucks.

 

[Smellyman]

As for Teddy, who knows how much he will improve as he's handcuffed by Turner's playcalling that forcefeeds AP even when it's obvious it's not working ... but he faced the NFL's best defense, played as well if not better than Wilson and put his team in a position to kick a chipshot FG to beat Seattle. 188/190 times that FG wins the game, Seattle was pretty lucky.

Seattle was extremely lucky on the final play.

As for my opinion of the Vikings roster, no need to debate. Time will reveal who is more correct.

Oh, and PFF sucks.

Referencing PFF is automatically renders everything else in the post invalid

 

[BKK_hawkfan]

I don't fault Zimmer for the play call, but I think he gave in to his emotions when he threw his ONLY PLAYER SCORING POINTS IN THE WHOLE DAMN GAME under the bus afterwards. I lost a lot of respect for him there. I hope he backs it off a little when the immediate pain eases up for him.