Hypothetically, if the WR market is now worth something like $1m per 100 yards and $1m per TD then a 1000 yard, 10 TD season would cost $20m per year, which isn’t as far fetched as you think because Sporttrac’s calculated market value for DK is $20.6m and he’s been roughly a 1000 yard, 10 TD guy.
DK’s production, in this scenario, has been worth about $51m in his first 3 seasons while he’s only made about $3.5m, so a net production profit of $47.5m off his success.
So now let’s say the team can extend DK to something like 5 years, $121.5 ($24.3m apy). It still looks like pretty significant money and a bit pricey but at the same time not really.
If they change nothing to 2022 salary then DK will cost $128m total over 8 years. Or only $16m apy.
So back to my first thought, a break even at $1m per 100 yards, $1m per TD for a WR making $16m apy over the life of his contract is 800 yards, 8 TDs per season (or 1200/4, 1100/5, 1000/6, 900/7.) I will keep it simple and just go with 800/8.
Meaning the magic number of break even production over 8 seasons at $16m apy is:
6400 Yards, 64 TDs.
Meaning if you subtract DK’s 3 year production from that, DK would only need to produce roughly 3200 yards, 35 TDs over 5 years or 640 yards, 7 TDs per season for the Seahawks to get even return on a 5 year, 121.5m extension.
Meaning if DK continues to average about 1000 yards, 10 TDs over the next 5… he would be consider a bargain.
…But PH… what if I don’t care about his past production on a rookie contract and only care what he’ll cost the team in those next 5 years where he’ll cost between $24-25m apy?
It almost applies the same: At only 25 years old, he’s only begun to hit his stride and his prime… Do you think he can be a WR who can produce about 1200-1300 yards, 12-13 TDs? Then he would be worth $25m apy.
And even if a run heavy scheme and franchise QB issues dumbs his numbers down to still about 1000, 10 per. You’d have to think about his overall influence and presence i.e. is he road-grading DBs as a downfield blocker or is he being heavily schemed out by opposing defenses allowing other receivers better opportunities?
I’d say it would be wise to extend DK and if you can get him for somewhere about $24-$25 apy then I see no issues on whether or not he’d be worth it as he’d likely be a bargain for what he’s already produced. But if by some chance Seahawks can get DK for closer to $20m apy, no one should complain about that.
3,170 Receiving Yards
Jerry Rice
