Swedishhawkfan
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To our fade play. They end up having a coverage breakdown and Witten is wide open for the game winner. Now the reason I think the fade is such a stupid call here is that it is a fairly safe but low percentage call = perfect for 2nd and goal when you have more downs to work with, but crap when you essentially have a hail mary from the 10 yd line.
The only thing that matters, is the highest possible chance that the outcome is a touchdown. Int does not matter, sack does not matter etc. By throwing a quick read throw like a fade (to Kearse also, one thing if its jimmy vs 4th string 5'2" CB..) You eliminate all possibility of the following:
Rw buys time and someone gets open, scramble and coverage breakdown etc. Or simply stand in the pocket, count to three and throw a bullet to someone in the endzone, since it is still a higher % than a fade.
It is sort of the same as when we where mad at holmgren for throwing a fade on 4th and 2. A fade COULD work, but it is not a high percentage play. The main advantage with a fade is that it is very quick and safe with a low risk of sack or pick, but that is exactly why it is so stupid in a hail mary situation where only probability of a touchdown matters.
A complete backyard play, where everyone just runs into the endzone and try to get open, would have had a higher chance of getting us a touchdown because it gives you options. It also puts pressure on the D when they have to cover a long play, knowing that even an injured Russ could easily run it in if everyone is covered.
But a fade in that situation slams the door on 80% of the ways you could win the game as soon as the ball is released, and you depend on luck and perfect execution instead of giving yourself the best possible chance to win. All easy ways to potentially win the game are instantly eliminated.
Put it this way. If you were a saints fan, and you know Seahawks final play is a combination of routes in the endzone, where Wilson will throw it hard to someone after buying time or run it himself.. or that hawks throw a quick fade to kearse, which one do you hope for?
The only thing that matters, is the highest possible chance that the outcome is a touchdown. Int does not matter, sack does not matter etc. By throwing a quick read throw like a fade (to Kearse also, one thing if its jimmy vs 4th string 5'2" CB..) You eliminate all possibility of the following:
Rw buys time and someone gets open, scramble and coverage breakdown etc. Or simply stand in the pocket, count to three and throw a bullet to someone in the endzone, since it is still a higher % than a fade.
It is sort of the same as when we where mad at holmgren for throwing a fade on 4th and 2. A fade COULD work, but it is not a high percentage play. The main advantage with a fade is that it is very quick and safe with a low risk of sack or pick, but that is exactly why it is so stupid in a hail mary situation where only probability of a touchdown matters.
A complete backyard play, where everyone just runs into the endzone and try to get open, would have had a higher chance of getting us a touchdown because it gives you options. It also puts pressure on the D when they have to cover a long play, knowing that even an injured Russ could easily run it in if everyone is covered.
But a fade in that situation slams the door on 80% of the ways you could win the game as soon as the ball is released, and you depend on luck and perfect execution instead of giving yourself the best possible chance to win. All easy ways to potentially win the game are instantly eliminated.
Put it this way. If you were a saints fan, and you know Seahawks final play is a combination of routes in the endzone, where Wilson will throw it hard to someone after buying time or run it himself.. or that hawks throw a quick fade to kearse, which one do you hope for?
