hawknation2015":2yenvi3l said:akscoundrel":2yenvi3l said:I don't think its a coin flip game. Not after a bye, at home, and just starting to get things turned around/fighting for playoffs.
I think its gonna be a dominating win. Still two different classes of teams, Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald are still Carson palmer and Larry Fitzgerald.
The Elo projection gives the Seahawks a 63% chance to win:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... edictions/
I guess I will try to address both of these. Elo is a pretty flawed system IMO based on how those rankings and numbers come up. At the same token they believe it will be Seattle by 3.5 That's a pretty small margin considering they put it at a 63% chance of a win. That's a one play difference. Here is a quote from their site:
Can I use you to beat Vegas?
I wouldn’t try that. Vegas lines account for a much wider array of information than I do. When Nate backtested me, he found that I got 51 percent of games right against the point spread. That’s not nearly enough to cover the house’s cut, much less to make a living.
The rankings this year, are also a reflection of last years results. So its a point based system in which Seattle began the year as the number two team. They then discounted their points by 1/3 (as well as everyones" to try to get to the mean. So even with a few poorer performances by Seattle they are still favored due to last years results.
In regards to the dominating win post. What is wrong with Larry Fitzgerald? He leads the league in TD's and is having the best year of his career. Better than the Super Bowl run even.
Carson Palmer is on pace to get 40Td's this year, and has the highest QBR in the league.
For the first time ever we have a running game. Chris Johnson is 2nd in the league despite not playing the first game except for 5 snaps. We have a top 10 OL. And PFF has put us as the number one secondary in the league this year. Factor in what I consider to be the worst LB's in the league and I think it's an average defense.
I just don't see this being a dominant victory like in years past because we are healthy, and playing well. I see this as a one possession game for whoever wins it.
Not too mention there are always plays in a football game that just can't be accounted for. Like the first play in the Super Bowl with Denver and Seattle. There are so many variables in any given game that it's hard to say that one team, especially when both are good will just come out and dominate. When the information we have says otherwise. That neither team has beaten a good one yet.