Arizona and Seattle

[ringless]

I don't think its a coin flip game. Not after a bye, at home, and just starting to get things turned around/fighting for playoffs.

I think its gonna be a dominating win. Still two different classes of teams, Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald are still Carson palmer and Larry Fitzgerald.

The Elo projection gives the Seahawks a 63% chance to win:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... edictions/

I guess I will try to address both of these. Elo is a pretty flawed system IMO based on how those rankings and numbers come up. At the same token they believe it will be Seattle by 3.5 That's a pretty small margin considering they put it at a 63% chance of a win. That's a one play difference. Here is a quote from their site:

Can I use you to beat Vegas?

I wouldn’t try that. Vegas lines account for a much wider array of information than I do. When Nate backtested me, he found that I got 51 percent of games right against the point spread. That’s not nearly enough to cover the house’s cut, much less to make a living.

The rankings this year, are also a reflection of last years results. So its a point based system in which Seattle began the year as the number two team. They then discounted their points by 1/3 (as well as everyones" to try to get to the mean. So even with a few poorer performances by Seattle they are still favored due to last years results.


In regards to the dominating win post. What is wrong with Larry Fitzgerald? He leads the league in TD's and is having the best year of his career. Better than the Super Bowl run even.

Carson Palmer is on pace to get 40Td's this year, and has the highest QBR in the league.
For the first time ever we have a running game. Chris Johnson is 2nd in the league despite not playing the first game except for 5 snaps. We have a top 10 OL. And PFF has put us as the number one secondary in the league this year. Factor in what I consider to be the worst LB's in the league and I think it's an average defense.

I just don't see this being a dominant victory like in years past because we are healthy, and playing well. I see this as a one possession game for whoever wins it.

Not too mention there are always plays in a football game that just can't be accounted for. Like the first play in the Super Bowl with Denver and Seattle. There are so many variables in any given game that it's hard to say that one team, especially when both are good will just come out and dominate. When the information we have says otherwise. That neither team has beaten a good one yet.

 

[SalishHawkFan]

Seahawks got fed. That's the biggest difference. Now we find out how much leaving a legacy means to them. How much winning a Super Bowl means to them.

Now we find out if they're truly competitors.

 

[kearly]

This game will be a title fight. With a guaranteed rematch.

I see it as more of a game 6 scenario with Arizona holding a 3-2 lead. I think Seattle will have to sweep AZ to win the division. A split probably won't be enough.

 

[hawknation2015]

On paper, the Seahawks would appear to matchup extremely well against Arizona. But games are not played on paper. I am more excited about this game than I have been about any other game this year.

 

[Hasselbeck]

Anybody else have a real tough time caring about Arizona? Rams? Hate 'em. 49ers? Love kicking their ass. Arizona? Meh... It's the cardinals, who cares. I expect to sweep them in both our upcoming games.

I think this is in large part due to the respective fan bases of each team. The Cardinals fan base is barely a blip on the NFL radar, and there are more guys like ringless in that base than obnoxious morons like the Niners have (excluding the good posters here of course). The Rams were easy to hate early on because they were our big brother and we had to get past them to become an annual playoff team.. now they play pretty dirty under the perennial 8-8 moustache man.. so its easy to hold that chip.

The Cardinals though in terms of actual team play.. they will be a thorn in our backside for quite some time. If anything, I see some parallels to the earlier days of the NFC West when we were trying to knock off the Rams. This time we are the team on top, and the Cards are the team trying to garner some relevance by finally knocking us off the throne. I know they had that brief stretch with Warner at QB where they won the division.. but at that time no other team was really worth a crap.. I kind of look at that the same way I look at Oregon's run in the Pac 12

:stirthepot:

The Cardinals will be replaced by the Rams within two years as "Seahawks biggest competition"

Agree somewhat, though that's all predicated on who Arians gets as the QB of the future. But yeah the NFC West rivalry is entirely cyclical. Hopefully the Rams are in LA soon too.. would only help the rivalry.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

I don't see this as a cakewalk for either team. Cards haven't beat a good team yet. Hawks defense can't close against a good team and aren't a good matchup for Arizona's receivers. Both teams need this, and in the end, it's a division fight.

 

[kearly]

Classy OP Ringless. But personally I'm expecting a comfortable win for Seattle.

I don't think Chris Johnson will have much success against Seattle's run D.

If Fitzgerald has success, Sherman will shadow him and that will be that. Take the running game away and take away Fitz and Arizona's offense is going to have a lot of 3 and outs.

The best hope for AZ is getting production out of guys like John Brown and Floyd, but with Lane and Burley coming back, Seattle's secondary will finally be close to full strength for the first time this season.

David Johnson concerns me as the type of RB who could give Seattle problems, but I don't think he'll see many touches and I have confidence in Wright and Wagner to minimize the damage on RB throws.

I think Seattle's offense will determine who wins this game. The only way I see a Seattle loss is if there is a dramatic red zone efficiency differential. Because I think Seattle will be in the red zone more than AZ.

 

[hoxrox]

This game will be huge with major implications on where we'll be come playoff time.

I hope the 12s will be ready to bring it.

 

[Scottemojo]

Palmer has attempted 24 red zone passes.
12 were touchdowns.

 

[marko358]

Palmer has attempted 24 red zone passes.
12 were touchdowns.

I think we have 12 cumulative yards all season in the red zone.

 

[Laloosh]

Palmer has attempted 24 red zone passes.
12 were touchdowns.

That's a pretty nice average, isn't it? Russell is on pace to throw 6 all season. Here's to hoping we turn things around in big, big way.

 

[ClutchDJ]

Classy OP Ringless. But personally I'm expecting a comfortable win for Seattle.

I don't think Chris Johnson will have much success against Seattle's run D.

If Fitzgerald has success, Sherman will shadow him and that will be that. Take the running game away and take away Fitz and Arizona's offense is going to have a lot of 3 and outs.

The best hope for AZ is getting production out of guys like John Brown and Floyd, but with Lane and Burley coming back, Seattle's secondary will finally be close to full strength for the first time this season.

David Johnson concerns me as the type of RB who could give Seattle problems, but I don't think he'll see many touches and I have confidence in Wright and Wagner to minimize the damage on RB throws.

I think Seattle's offense will determine who wins this game. The only way I see a Seattle loss is if there is a dramatic red zone efficiency differential. Because I think Seattle will be in the red zone more than AZ.

Isn't Lane just now coming back next week? I've read from other Seattle fans(even what Sgt. Largent noted on the first page) that he might not play so he can shake off the rust/get back into football rhythm.

 

[ringless]

Classy OP Ringless. But personally I'm expecting a comfortable win for Seattle.

I don't think Chris Johnson will have much success against Seattle's run D.

If Fitzgerald has success, Sherman will shadow him and that will be that. Take the running game away and take away Fitz and Arizona's offense is going to have a lot of 3 and outs.

The best hope for AZ is getting production out of guys like John Brown and Floyd, but with Lane and Burley coming back, Seattle's secondary will finally be close to full strength for the first time this season.

David Johnson concerns me as the type of RB who could give Seattle problems, but I don't think he'll see many touches and I have confidence in Wright and Wagner to minimize the damage on RB throws.

I think Seattle's offense will determine who wins this game. The only way I see a Seattle loss is if there is a dramatic red zone efficiency differential. Because I think Seattle will be in the red zone more than AZ.

Isn't Lane just now coming back next week? I've read from other Seattle fans(even what Sgt. Largent noted on the first page) that he might not play so he can shake off the rust/get back into football rhythm.

Lane should be able to handle Brown quite well I'd think. Even if he is coming off an injury he's had time just not the reps. Really going to need the OL to be the big difference maker here and give them time to get into the open spots in the Zone coverage. Haven't seen that consistency from Cooper, or Massie yet. Palmer hasn't looked great in huge pressure situations this year but they weren't entirely his fault either. We've dropped some key passes at key times that were at the right spot.

With the poster that said if this is an under 20pt game they like their odds. I'd have to agree because that means Seattle's Defense did what they needed to do to win. I feel like overall our defensive strengths don't match up well against Seahawks offensive strengths. Seattle doesn't need a big passing day to win. Our strength is in the secondary. It's not the front 7. Seattle struggled against Cincy, Carolina, Stl, and GB. Teams that have all been able to generate pressure up front. That's our largest weakness on the D. Getting pressure. So again we are left with the issue of how to contain Wilson. And How to stop Lynch.

Cardinals will get the ball first which I hate. But if that's the case Arians better make it pay off with the right gameplan.

 

[ringless]

@hawkblogger 4h4 hours ago
The race for #1 scoring defense in the NFL got a bit closer today.

Broncos 139 pts allowed (17.4 ppg)
Seahawks 140 pts allowed (17.5 ppg)

@mikejurecki 4h4 hours ago
Opening line Seahawks (-3, 45) vs. Cardinals. #AZvsSEA @SNFonNBC

That total seems a little high to me. 45 points. Hmmm

@bcondotta 4h4 hours ago
Seahawks favored by 3 over Cardinals Sunday. 25th straight regular season game Seattle favored at home:

 

[NINEster]

Here's my general take on this game without getting into position matchups, film analysis and what not...

Cardinals appear to be playing better as a team this season than the Seahawks, particularly on offense. Their blowouts over bad teams and then struggles against other bad teams evens out.....still a good offense, good team. If anything, too many blowouts in a row is unsustainable, and ugly wins/losses almost always follow.

The issue I have with the Seahawks this season wasn't how they are on the road, but more how they are not dominant at home. Those first two Bears/Lions games showed a glimpse of the offensive struggles, and then losing at home to the Panthers didn't bode well for this team.

2012, 2013, and even last year.....you go into Century Link and if you're not quite at the level, the game will stay close for awhile and then the blow out is just around the corner (i.e. 17+ point loss). Now we haven't seen that all year, and not sure we'll see that this weekend. (I'm going to exclude the Bears game, because that's a 40 point win in years past -- NY Giants of this year would not be blow out by 21 like last year).

The flip side to all of this is that Cardinals last year were more or less in the same position they are now facing the Seahawks and that didn't turn out well.

So that recent history gives me pause to say "A+B=C", for now. I think this weekend's game will say a lot about these two teams going forward more than any other game on the schedule.

 

[jlwaters1]

Would also like to point out neither team has proved anything yet against the better teams.

Arizona lost by 12 points to a Michael Vick/Landry Jones-led Steelers team.

Seahawks have not lost by more than 10 points in the last four years, including playoff games. The last time was October 30, 2011 against Cincinnati . . . an NFL record 73-consecutive games. They have played three undefeated teams this season and more than held there own in agonizingly close losses.

They lost by 10 this year though didn't they. What made you choose 10 as opposed to 11 or 9? I'll tell you. Its the same reason I choose to say Carson Palmer is 12-2 in his last 14 games. I don't think it matters that it's been 73 games because all streaks end, and those games have nothing to do with the one coming up. When is the last time Seattle lost two games back to back twice in a season, and twice in a same season? They did it this year. They hadn't done it in those previous 73 games I'd be willing to bet on it. Which is why it's useless information. That's like the 49er fans that say they have 5 rings when their team performs poorly. It just doesnt matter. Or it would be like me saying Palmer is undefeated at century link as a Cardinal. I also didn't say who I thought would win. I said for the first time in the Pete era I felt like it could be a coin toss. I think most people could agree don't you?

Arizona lost but up until that last play we were in that game, and I'm not even going to get into what I felt happened that game. Very lopsided officiating. In both our losses just like Seattle in their four we had a chance to win the game at the end of the game.

I feel like our teams match up well. I feel like the first one to 20 will win this game. I certainly see Seattle's defense being the most disruptive this year on our offense. I also feel like it will be one of the worst offenses our defense has gone up against. Going off the results of this season I think that's fair to say.

The point is that in those 3+ years we've lost 2 games 1 last year by 9 to San Diego (Only reason it was 9 instead of 6 was we were taking our final timeouts when most teams would have let the clock expire, which forced them to kick a FG) The 10 point loss to GB this year, was a tight battle with them icing the game in the final minutes- Seattle had the lead in the 4th QTR. Other than those 2 games, every other loss has been 8 or less.

The point of this stat should be obvious, Seattle does NOT get blown out, every loss is tightly contested. If AZ Is going to win it will "most likely" be a nail biter, similar to AZ win in 2012 in AZ and their win in Seattle in 2013.

It should be a good game. Both teams are good, Both teams though have a lot to prove. Seattle had trouble closing out 3 of their losses that they really should have won. The question is will they be able to do that against AZ, or will AZ be able to come out with the win.

 

[Laloosh]

Here's my general take on this game without getting into position matchups, film analysis and what not...

Cardinals appear to be playing better as a team this season than the Seahawks, particularly on offense. Their blowouts over bad teams and then struggles against other bad teams evens out.....still a good offense, good team. If anything, too many blowouts in a row is unsustainable, and ugly wins/losses almost always follow.

The issue I have with the Seahawks this season wasn't how they are on the road, but more how they are not dominant at home. Those first two Bears/Lions games showed a glimpse of the offensive struggles, and then losing at home to the Panthers didn't bode well for this team.

2012, 2013, and even last year.....you go into Century Link and if you're not quite at the level, the game will stay close for awhile and then the blow out is just around the corner (i.e. 17+ point loss). Now we haven't seen that all year, and not sure we'll see that this weekend. (I'm going to exclude the Bears game, because that's a 40 point win in years past -- NY Giants of this year would not be blow out by 21 like last year).

The flip side to all of this is that Cardinals last year were more or less in the same position they are now facing the Seahawks and that didn't turn out well.

So that recent history gives me pause to say "A+B=C", for now. I think this weekend's game will say a lot about these two teams going forward more than any other game on the schedule.

The stark contrasts between this iteration of the Seahawks and the previous two are undeniable. I do think that the potential is similar but they haven't put it all together for a game yet and that doesn't bode well.

Personally, I'm probably more hopeful than I am confident but the talent is still there and having played as horribly as they have and still leading in every single game (and every 4th quarter I believe), makes it easier to be hopeful.

Arizona is highly unlikely to be anywhere near their 9.1 Y/A (8.5 NY/A) that they've grown accustomed to in the passing game and I'm not sold on their running game based on the defenses that they've played outside of STL.

We'll see but I think you make a valid point about the 2015 Seahawks being less intimidating at home.

 

[ivotuk]

This game will be a title fight. With a guaranteed rematch.

Also, Gurly is legit. Legit running backs even the field. They don't win games, but they do make games 50/50. So in division, games remaining, Arizona has 3 games vs legit RBs, Seattle has 1, and STL has 1. You do the math.


It might be a three team race week 17.

Another quality post.

 

[themunn]

Arizona haven't beaten a team Seattle lost to this year (yet).

In fact, their 6 wins this year have come against teams who are a combined 14-35

Granted, our wins have also been against terrible teams.

But our 4 losses have been close until the end of the 4th quarter in every game and have come against teams who are a combined 26-4

Yes - we haven't looked impressive in the wins either, if anything we've arguably been more impressive in the 4 losses than in the 4 wins. However, what it suggests is that we're probably better than our records suggest, and that Arizona aren't necessarily as good as their record suggest (though perhaps they are - after all, you can only beat what's put in front of you)

 

[ringless]

Arizona haven't beaten a team Seattle lost to this year (yet).

In fact, their 6 wins this year have come against teams who are a combined 14-35

Granted, our wins have also been against terrible teams.

But our 4 losses have been close until the end of the 4th quarter in every game and have come against teams who are a combined 26-4

Yes - we haven't looked impressive in the wins either, if anything we've arguably been more impressive in the 4 losses than in the 4 wins. However, what it suggests is that we're probably better than our records suggest, and that Arizona aren't necessarily as good as their record suggest (though perhaps they are - after all, you can only beat what's put in front of you)

Well in saying that we haven't played Cinci, GB, or Carolina so the sample size there is pretty small. If you compare teams we've played I think the picture looks a little different. What that statement says is, AZ hasn't beat the only team we've played in common (Rams) that Seattle played.

It's not like AZ wasn't close in the Rams game or Steelers game their. At the end of the game we had a shot to win both of those with under two minutes to play. At the end of the season we will have played 14 games in common though.

But AZ at the same time has been much more dominating in their wins.