Are the Seahawks ready for life after Marshawn?

[Thunderhawk]

The most important person to this team is Pete Carroll.

Marshawn was had for a fourth round pick
Kam was a 5th round pick
Sherm was was a 5th round pick
Wilson a 3rd round pick.

Therefore most NFL teams considered them too short, too tall, too big, or too gangster to be productive in the NFL. Were they wrong? Perhaps not. Maybe if they'd landed on another team they would have washed out or been half as productive as they've been in Seattle. Ultimately it was Carroll that neutralized their limitations and maximized their contributions.

We talk about what a great motivator Carroll is but that is not his true worth. He is a great tactician and strategist. Rather than acquire cookie-cutter athletes to lock into static schemes he adjusts his strategies to fit player strengths.

So, losing Marshawn doesn't concern me in the least because Carroll will simply adjust. Maybe we'll pass slightly more, maybe we go committee with Turbin / Michael or one of them becomes the primary. I don't know. But I fully trust Carroll to figure it without sacrificing his emphasis on toughness. Michael may not be as feisty as Marshawn but he still runs angry.

 

[Lords of Scythia]

Lords, I genuinely expect that day will never come and the team will always be a run first team with Pete and John in charge of things.

Is there a reason for that? I think PC tends to run with the best options available to him, and once they got Marshawn it was Beast Mode.

 

[m0ng0]

I think given time and reps Kiero Small could be the thunder to Michaels lightning some day.

 

[formido]

Lynch is special. From a Bayesian standpoint, I give enormous credit to his NFL record play-off TD runs of 40+ yards, four I believe, two more than anyone else. When the name of the game is championships, and you've got a back as clutch and tone-setting as Lynch, I'm not convinced that Lynch isn't more valuable than AP himself. Analytics loves to use regular season numbers because there's a nice sample size for traditional frequentist methods, but only titles matter and clutch counts.

So your point is well taken.

Unfortunately, no one is replacing Lynch. SF's new toy Hyde couldn't, Eddie Lacey couldn't -- It's not enough to be bruising, you've got to be bruising and produce. We had the worst power run percentage in the league last year, and if Lynch had been one lick less productive to go with his tone-setting, as any other back would have been giving the poor blocking, there's no Super Bowl.

Remember the old adage, "the graveyards are full of indispensable men". Seattle will adapt. Shaun Alexander ran for 95 yards on 5 ypc against the Steelers, it's not really his fault he doesn't have a Super Bowl. Many Super Bowls have been won by finesse backs[1]. Moreover, I'm still thinking about it, but I find the view that running wears down the opponent mainly because of the other 10 guys on the field, not the RB, to be persuasive.

Many of us are amenable to a platoon -- is Cable?

[1] Michael can pack a punch too, watch what happened to the poor sap at the end of his screen pass against GB two preseasons ago. And if Michael had more than a handful of garbage time carries against stacked boxes, I'm sure I'd have more relevant examples. It's just physics, you're not that big and that fast and have that good of leverage and at the same time harmless.

 

[formido]

It will be interesting to see how much longer the "we are saving him" Michael crowd continues with that mantra.

I get similar amusement from the "Michael isn't special" crowd who out of one side of their mouths say Lynch is irreplaceable and out of the other side say Michael's no good because he hasn't replaced him.

 

[TheRealDTM]

Do you believe in life after love?

 

[TwilightError]

I fear many might be missing the point of Kearly's post. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe he is asking if we can replace the production of Marshawn. As a Michael believer, he has to believe that we could get somewhere close on paper.

What we will have a more difficult time replacing is the mentality. The Seahawks as they are built now are back-alley brawlers. They want to take all of their opponents high-flying pretty weapons, and your their LB's and undersized safeties, and throw those guys into the middle of a brawl to the death. The Seahawks don't want to play an aesthetically pleasing football match. They want to physically bully you into a pulp and leave your carcass for the paramedics. And we've got the meanest, baddest dude on the block, and he's pissed.

I know 95% here won't agree, but Marshawn is the most important player on our team. All of this LOB and tough guy mentality doesn't work the same without a guy literally nicknamed "The Beast". We want to intimidate. We want to line up on the field and make you pee your pants. The four guys that really built this persona for us were Marshawn, Red, Browner, and Kam. Two of those guys are gone now. The most important two are still here, but they have to carry that torch if we want to be feared the same way we have been for the past two years.

Without Marshawn, a lot changes. We're no longer the baddest dude around. Defenses don't fear gettingi their helmet ripped off. We'll rely on the pretty play of Michael and the arm of the golden child. I'm quite sure it will be effective, but it isn't the same thing. There is more to this than 4.2 YPC and Skittles.

This is such a great post that it just has to be quoted. To me Marshawn looks like a truly unique player. There is no possible way to replace him. If and when the Seahawks have to adapt to life after Marshawn Lynch, they have to invest in the o-line. A great o-line can lift any proper running back to elite status. Finding another as tough helmet popping, contact seeking bulldozer is not very likely.

I really like Michael and expect him to become a superstar but he will have to make his own name. He will not be "the next beast mode."

 

[Hawks46]

Well great post, both Kearly and Tical. Tical's especially embodies what I've always wanted in a team identity for the Hawks in like, well, forever. Or at least until inception. Lol I just posted on another thread, but it would fit perfectly here:

"Honestly, no one is going to replace Lynch. No one. there isn't a back in the draft or the pros that replicates exactly what Lynch does. He's a completely unique back in both style and power.

That said, if Michael shows up to his potential, we can replicate the production. He might not grind out that extra tough 3 yards, turning a poorly blocked 1 yard run into a 4 yarder, but he has home run potential that Lynch doesn't have anymore.

When we say goodbye to Lynch, it's going to be saying goodbye to that particularly nasty running style and attitude. When can replicate the production, but we're never going to replicate the man's style. I try to keep this in mind about looking for potential replacements. Everyone wants the next Lynch (who doesn't ?), but I'd be happy with the next Gore, the next Barber, the next MJD, etc. All of these backs, in their primes, weren't as good as Lynch was in his prime, but they'd keep the ball rolling."

That said, after reading this thread I started to think: what's really the difference between Michael and Lynch, or Lynch and every other back for that matter ?

Aside from physical traits (both backs are pretty much the same size, although Lynch looks like he weighs 230), it's attitude. Lynch doesn't go down on first contact. Not terribly unique. Many other backs manage that. Nor 2nd contact. Also not unique. It's not just Lynch's ability, but WILLINGNESS to take on that 3rd and 4th guy that makes him special.

I've seen Michael break tackles at the NFL level. I've seen him truck guys and punish DB's at the end of the run. He'd rather hit a guy than go out of bounds. It's a start. But he's not at Lynch's level: when that 2nd guy gets to him, he goes down, usually willingly. Also, it seems like when a DLman gets to him in the backfield, he also goes down wilingly. I don't blame the guy, but Lynch isn't willing to accept that anyone can bring him down.

Michael has special athleticism. I hope he can polish his game up next year. Not necessarily pattern it after Lynch, but if he could take just that one thing, that unwillingness to go down, if someone could just sit him down and say "look, if you could incorporate that into your game now, and clean up the rest, the Hawks will ride you until you can't walk anymore".

 

[OutfieldGrass]

Its seem we have come to the conclusion that we are not ready for life after Lynch. Michael should be a solid back but doesn't offer the 'punch in the mouth, drag the opposing team to the end zone' type skills that Lynch gives us right now. So....what do we do about it? Are there any players that could fill that role in next years draft? Any impending free agents that we might look at? What is the next step...

 

[Kaiser]

His balance will be just as hard to replace as his power.

 

[chris98251]

Lynch's bow legged running for lack of a better description is unique, I know one other back off the top of my head that was very similar in that way, Floyd Little who played for the Broncos, the other aspect of wanting to deal punishment is a lot like Riggins and Campbell although Little pound for pound dealt punishment out as well and was known for it. Initiating the contact versus absorbing it is why Lynch is feared.

 

[Anthony!]

I am not worried at all, its pre season game 1, we saw Michaels look explosive and power his way in for the td. With an o-lien that was basically a joke. I think we will be fine with like after ML.

 

[Russ Willstrong]

CMike played tough in Denver. Remember this swarming defense kept Lynch in check.
The run where he bounces out to the left and is met by Rahim Moore showed he knows how to finish plays. He lowered his shoulder into Moore and sent him walking to the locker room. Michaels took an awkward hit/grab to the head by mr potroast that could have injured most. He also showed good hands in the passing game. With more playtime he'll improve.

 

[MB12]

I saw this comment on Deadspin's why your team sucks for the Saints.

David:"If you think the Ray Rice suspension was light, just remember Goodell did absolutely nothing when Marshawn Lynch did the same thing to the entire Saints defense in the 2011 Wild Card game."

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Well after reading this really good thread with insightful thoughts all around I have come to the conclusion I am in the extreme minority. Basically we have been ready for life without Marshaun the moment Percy Harvin got healthy and was in training camp with Wilson this year. The rules will force a change of not exactly offensive philosophy but ratio. This team will be passing a bit more and they will be integrating Harvin into a screen/sweep game which will lessen the 3 yards and a cloud of dust offense we have been running the last 4 years.

There is no good reason to run Lynch 30 times a game when we can do it 15-20 and mix in Micheal and Harvin for the rest and then go over the top with Richardson, Kearse or maybe Lockette (if he makes the team). It's time for this team to start transitioning to the fact that it is and will be Wilson as the focal point of the offense. The rules force this nothing else, the NFL is all about the quarterback especially one's that will be making 18-22 million a year in the very near future.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

While I'd love to see what Michael can do, I am not ready for life after Marshawn.

Beast Mode is a proven commodity, and hasn't shown any signs of diminished return yet. Michael is pure potential, and isn't a guarantee to either produce OR stay healthy. This might be a case of don't know what you've got til it's gone...........and right now we've got a HOF running back in his prime, so why are we ready for life after Marshawn again?

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

While I'd love to see what Michael can do, I am not ready for life after Marshawn.

Beast Mode is a proven commodity, and hasn't shown any signs of diminished return yet. Michael is pure potential, and isn't a guarantee to either produce OR stay healthy. This might be a case of don't know what you've got til it's gone...........and right now we've got a HOF running back in his prime, so why are we ready for life after Marshawn again?

I'm not exactly, but I am prepared and the best way I see for having him around for the next year or two after this season is to start putting him into a rotation so that it lessens the chance of a dropoff into the abyss and to see what we really have before we really do have to move on from him.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

While I'd love to see what Michael can do, I am not ready for life after Marshawn.

Beast Mode is a proven commodity, and hasn't shown any signs of diminished return yet. Michael is pure potential, and isn't a guarantee to either produce OR stay healthy. This might be a case of don't know what you've got til it's gone...........and right now we've got a HOF running back in his prime, so why are we ready for life after Marshawn again?

I'm not exactly, but I am prepared and the best way I see for having him around for the next year or two after this season is to start putting him into a rotation so that it lessens the chance of a dropoff into the abyss and to see what we really have before we really do have to move on from him.

I'm perfectly OK with giving Michael more carries this year to see what he's got...........not so sure Lynch would be OK with that.

2014 is going to be an interesting year for sure with Marshawn. I could see him running for 1,300 yards with 10 TD's with no problems, and I can see him being a pain in the ass when he's pulled out of games to get Turbin and Michael more carries.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

While I'd love to see what Michael can do, I am not ready for life after Marshawn.

Beast Mode is a proven commodity, and hasn't shown any signs of diminished return yet. Michael is pure potential, and isn't a guarantee to either produce OR stay healthy. This might be a case of don't know what you've got til it's gone...........and right now we've got a HOF running back in his prime, so why are we ready for life after Marshawn again?

I'm not exactly, but I am prepared and the best way I see for having him around for the next year or two after this season is to start putting him into a rotation so that it lessens the chance of a dropoff into the abyss and to see what we really have before we really do have to move on from him.

I'm perfectly OK with giving Michael more carries this year to see what he's got...........not so sure Lynch would be OK with that.

2014 is going to be an interesting year for sure with Marshawn. I could see him running for 1,300 yards with 10 TD's with no problems, and I can see him being a pain in the ass when he's pulled out of games to get Turbin and Michael more carries.

That's to be expected but I trust Marshawn is a better person then that. If not, he isn't the first or last RB to be forced to accept a lesser role for the good of the team.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

As much as it's pains me to think this, I think Marshawn's last year in Seattle is this year, regardless of whether there is a Back to Back NFC and SB titles.....I think we will prioritze KJ Wright & get him signed and will roll the dice that the team will eventually replace Lynch, Bruce Irvin and part of me wonders whether we are really going to pay 12M a year for Russell Okung....my initial guess is no and Bailey or a high draft pick eventually becomes the new Left Tackle, unless he gets very healthy this year.

Wilson's contract, even if it's a hometown discount will require cuts to be made elsewhere and cuts will be made on offense vs defense....MissouHawkGal is right, there is going to be a transition away from looking and playing to win 17-14 like Harbaugh tries to do and win 31-14 like Pete did at USC in the Pac 10.

PRich and Harvin will pave the way to points and lots of them. If Harvin eventually proves too fragile then we also can make due without him at some point because he does absorb a lot of cap space that can perhaps go to Okung or a couple of others that will need extensions. The key to making these moves is whether Richardson, Norwood, Bailey and CMichael can show signs that they can have bigger roles this year and make others potentially expendable.....JS is one savvy GM and I think we are in for another huge season or two where the Hawks will be right there at the top of the list for Super Bowls.

As much as Lynch is the thumper that does that dirty work, the same could be said for Frank Gore in SF with the Whiners....He nearly embarrassed himself falling down during that one big run he had vs us at Candlestick, when they somehow beat us....if he was truly the old Frank Gore, he would not have fallen down and scored....instead the settled for a FG to win, but Lynch is eventually going to wear down....I'd love to be wrong and have no problem paying him 6M next year, but I doubt he's going to play out his contract without asking for another year or two, especially if we win the whole thing again.