2013-14 EPL Season

[Hawkspur]

I found this earlier this morning and find it really interesting. Puts in perspective the league standings as they are, and truly where teams are in terms of progress. Standings in the PL really mean f--- all until late on as the fixture list is so dynamically different for each team... discuss....


Basically this is top 8 and how they have fared this season against the same fixtures as last season (with the point differential)... discuss

Team Pl 12/13 13/14 P+/-
Man City 11 16 19 +3
Man U 11 28 20 -8
Spurs 11 18 20 +2
Arsenal 11 26 25 -1
Chelsea 11 26 21 -5
Liverpool 11 19 23 +4
Everton 11 19 20 +1
Soton 11 8 22 +14

Interesting really... United's win may have staved off a complete drop, but they are still -8 in points in corresponding fixtures from last year (they beat Arsenal in the match last season at OT). Spurs, for all their failures to adapt to the new players and loss of Bale are still +2 from the same fixtures last season. Arsenal, for all the media hype, is actually -1 in point total amassed from the same set of fixtures last season.

(can we acknowledge my Soton call please... i'm a damn genius)

As the season progresses i feel like this massively interesting to see which teams are truly making progress from last season and who is not. How it matters in the overall standings wont be known obviously, but it does show a detailed account of "improvements" and "declines"

Good find.
So you're essentially saying that Arsenal are on pace to miss out on the top 4. That's science right there. I like it.
Spurs achieved their greatest number of points in the Premier League era last season so if they can keep that up I'll be happy.

 

[Uncle Si]

For the sake of winding up Gate, yes, I am saying that Arsenal is on pace to miss out (completely ignoring that Chelsea and United are making dramatic falls as well).

To me its just interesting to compare league table with actual fixtures. Arsenal's start, for example, has included 3 top 10 teams, with 2 at home. they lost their only tough away draw. Liverpool has just taken better advantage of the weaker teams than last season, as well as reversing the United tie.

Chelsea, United and Southampton are the true surprises.

Real point is... ease up on annointing successes/failures of your club unless you introduce context.

 

[Gatehawk]

I found this earlier this morning and find it really interesting. Puts in perspective the league standings as they are, and truly where teams are in terms of progress. Standings in the PL really mean f--- all until late on as the fixture list is so dynamically different for each team... discuss....


Basically this is top 8 and how they have fared this season against the same fixtures as last season (with the point differential)... discuss

Team Pl 12/13 13/14 P+/-
Man City 11 16 19 +3
Man U 11 28 20 -8
Spurs 11 18 20 +2
Arsenal 11 26 25 -1
Chelsea 11 26 21 -5
Liverpool 11 19 23 +4
Everton 11 19 20 +1
Soton 11 8 22 +14

Interesting really... United's win may have staved off a complete drop, but they are still -8 in points in corresponding fixtures from last year (they beat Arsenal in the match last season at OT). Spurs, for all their failures to adapt to the new players and loss of Bale are still +2 from the same fixtures last season. Arsenal, for all the media hype, is actually -1 in point total amassed from the same set of fixtures last season.

(can we acknowledge my Soton call please... i'm a damn genius)

As the season progresses i feel like this massively interesting to see which teams are truly making progress from last season and who is not. How it matters in the overall standings wont be known obviously, but it does show a detailed account of "improvements" and "declines"

I kind of like to see the difference between goals scored at this point last year and this year, cause I bet Spurs have a noticable drop off in that aspect, City would probably have more, and it'd be interesting to see the difference for Liverpool, Man U and Arsenal. I know it has no real bearing, but it'd be interesting.

 

[Uncle Si]

Try Google...

The point is not goals scored on the season... But goals scored etc in the same fixtures. The same games as last season these are the point differences from this year and last. Above the total points it shows improvements and drops. Current standing are not quite as meaningful...

Now obviously tons of factors play a role in this. Just take it as it is

 

[Gatehawk]

Try Google...

The point is not goals scored on the season... But goals scored etc in the same fixtures. The same games as last season these are the point differences from this year and last. Above the total points it shows improvements and drops. Current standing are not quite as meaningful...

Now obviously tons of factors play a role in this. Just take it as it is

City have been scoring goals like a maniac on speed, yet they've been atrocious away from the Etihad. 20 goals at home but only 8 away and they've won only 1 away match this season(I looked that up). If you wanted a prime example of goals not equaling success, then I think City, this season, would fit that bill.

 

[Uncle Si]

Try Google...

The point is not goals scored on the season... But goals scored etc in the same fixtures. The same games as last season these are the point differences from this year and last. Above the total points it shows improvements and drops. Current standing are not quite as meaningful...

Now obviously tons of factors play a role in this. Just take it as it is

City have been scoring goals like a maniac on speed, yet they've been atrocious away from the Etihad. 20 goals at home but only 8 away and they've won only 1 away match this season(I looked that up). If you wanted a prime example of goals not equaling success, then I think City, this season, would fit that bill.

but they are successful. they are +3 in points earned from the same fixtures as last year. do you see the correlation? Basically they were just as bad away in those same fixtures last season, actually they are 3 points better (probably won a home game they didnt last year.. maybe United?)

Arsenal, for all the hype, is one point off the pace in the same fixtures as last year. The fact they've had a relatively easy run to this point shouldnt be overshadowed by their lofty table position. Liverpool is +4. Spurs, who cant score, are still +2 points better than last year. A real interesting data point is United and Chelsea's -8 and -5 respectively. those are tough numbers to overcome later on.

These are important because the standings only show who has the most points, not who has played who. Sometimes we jump on the table as being a true indicator of success. For Liverpool, in this sense, it kind of is, as they struggled with the lesser teams last year. Spurs can gain some level of confidence from their point total despite a lack of goals.

None of it tallies up how the season will end. But in terms of an early season indicator as to teams getting better its very important to get an idea of their point totals in comparison to how they did last season against those teams (some of it is also how much better/worse those teams were last year as well). This will become less and less relevant as we hit the 2nd time through the group but its an interesting factor 11 games in.

 

[Gatehawk]

Try Google...

The point is not goals scored on the season... But goals scored etc in the same fixtures. The same games as last season these are the point differences from this year and last. Above the total points it shows improvements and drops. Current standing are not quite as meaningful...

Now obviously tons of factors play a role in this. Just take it as it is

City have been scoring goals like a maniac on speed, yet they've been atrocious away from the Etihad. 20 goals at home but only 8 away and they've won only 1 away match this season(I looked that up). If you wanted a prime example of goals not equaling success, then I think City, this season, would fit that bill.

but they are successful. they are +3 in points earned from the same fixtures as last year. do you see the correlation? Basically they were just as bad away in those same fixtures last season, actually they are 3 points better (probably won a home game they didnt last year.. maybe United?)

Arsenal, for all the hype, is one point off the pace in the same fixtures as last year. The fact they've had a relatively easy run to this point shouldnt be overshadowed by their lofty table position. Liverpool is +4. Spurs, who cant score, are still +2 points better than last year. A real interesting data point is United and Chelsea's -8 and -5 respectively. those are tough numbers to overcome later on.

These are important because the standings only show who has the most points, not who has played who. Sometimes we jump on the table as being a true indicator of success. For Liverpool, in this sense, it kind of is, as they struggled with the lesser teams last year. Spurs can gain some level of confidence from their point total despite a lack of goals.

None of it tallies up how the season will end. But in terms of an early season indicator as to teams getting better its very important to get an idea of their point totals in comparison to how they did last season against those teams (some of it is also how much better/worse those teams were last year as well). This will become less and less relevant as we hit the 2nd time through the group but its an interesting factor 11 games in.

While that is true, you look at it, City lost to Cardiff City and Sunderland, two games they should have won easily, and if they had, they'd be top of the league on Goal Difference. That is where this point differential thing kinda get thrown to the wayside, you could be better off than you were the year before, but still not appear to be better off in the standings. And a year ago, wasn't Spurs in like the Top 2-3 positions where as this year they're 7th? At the end of the day, where you are situated in the table is more important than the difference in your results between this year and last.

 

[Uncle Si]

Well no Gate thats actually incorrect... The position in the table only matters at the end right noe is only reflective of your results against the teams you've played

While City lost to Sunderland and Cardiff they are still 3 points better than last year in the same fixtures. You'd have to look at the results to know for sure but across the same 11 fixtures last season they've actually improved.

Arsenal have not. United are down 8 points. arsenals is quite easy... Took 4 points from Liverpool and Villa at home last year. Three this year. -1

We all play the same 38 games just at vastly different patterns. There are so many points out there. So many points needed. Judging how any team gets those points come a lot in how it improves on its point total from last season. This illustrates more how teams are improving or not on their point total and not just where they are in the table.

Arsenal and Liverpool have had a fairly easy start. Liverpool have done well to improve their point total. arsenal have dropped a point.

I feel like this isn't that complicated

 

[Gatehawk]

Well no Gate thats actually incorrect... The position in the table only matters at the end right noe is only reflective of your results against the teams you've played

While City lost to Sunderland and Cardiff they are still 3 points better than last year in the same fixtures. You'd have to look at the results to know for sure but across the same 11 fixtures last season they've actually improved.

Arsenal have not. United are down 8 points. arsenals is quite easy... Took 4 points from Liverpool and Villa at home last year. Three this year. -1

We all play the same 38 games just at vastly different patterns. There are so many points out there. So many points needed. Judging how any team gets those points come a lot in how it improves on its point total from last season. This illustrates more how teams are improving or not on their point total and not just where they are in the table.

Arsenal and Liverpool have had a fairly easy start. Liverpool have done well to improve their point total. arsenal have dropped a point.

I feel like this isn't that complicated

You're making this complicated. I never actually point blank said, "where you are in the table at this moment". What I was referring to is, at the end of the season, Arsenal could be 5 points off of last season's total or 5 points more than last season's total, and they could win the title.

Honestly the way this season seems to be shaping up, 65-70 points by mid to late April at minimum could have you in the title picture. Chelsea have strikers who are inept at scoring at the moment, Liverpool are only as good as SAS keep scoring, City can't seem to win on the road, United are constantly unconvincing even when they win, Arsenal are struggling with depth(even I can't deny that), Spurs can't seem to score(has 1 more goal scored than Sunderland), Southampton are overachieving(it'll be interesting to see how long they can last), and Everton are the same as ever(hovering around the top 5 but not appearing to be a real threat to take one of those spots).

I don't think we'll be able to pick the real title contenders till the end of February at best.

 

[Uncle Si]

well... "At the end of the day, where you are situated in the table is more important than the difference in your results between this year and last". i just dont think you get it. you have to look at it objectively, not reflectively. its math. but thats fine. I think we already know (always know) who the league contenders are and who the 8 challengers for top 4 are. 89 points won the league last year. it will probably take 85 this year. 73 got top 4. probably the same. So how you go about getting to those point totals is not indicative of where you are at the moment, but you are improving on your own point total. thats what that table shows. what teams struggles are doesnt matter at the moment (Chelseas strikers couldnt score last year either) if they are getting the points. United/Chelsea are dropping points. for United, it now means they need to make those points up. they are 8 points off from last season (already), but won the league by a whopping 11. they are still title contenders.

you still want to look at the "how teams are playing" instead of the very real reflector of points earned against last season. While Spurs are struggling to score, they are still +2 points over last season. Everton are not "hovering".. they are doing exactly what they did last season (+1) in the same fixtures. Or City.. you point to them struggling, yet theyre +3 from last season (really just flipped the result with United. Shockingly the other results are very similar). Southampton? you say they are "overachieving"... are they? they are +14 points against last years similar fixtures. it is not their table position that is reflective of their progress, but their points gained from last year. Is that overachieving? I dont think it is. thats progress.

Liverpool needed to find 12 points. they've found 4 already. (by the way, you're assertion that Liverpool will go as SAS is goes shows a lack of understanding of any of these teams strengths and weaknesses. These teams are showing what they are. How they get to where they want to be is how they improve on their weaknesses, not rely on their strengths. This is the PL, not FIFA14). Arsenal needed to find roughly 12 points for the title (thats assuming United wont regain the 16 point gap they had last season) they're -1. the league leaders are actually worse in the run of 11 fixtures than they were last year, where they finished 4th and 16 points off. you can continue to look at the snapshots as you want, but this is what the clubs will look at.

Now, the issues each team is having may impact the next 11 fixtures. I dont think we will have any idea who are top4 will be until April (not February). If anything, the drop in points of United and City just make the title more attainable for 6 teams instead of 3 as it reduces the total points needed. Form will play a major role soon enough. But in gauging early season progress, it paints a slightly different picture than the table does.


Matches on the return that may take another step in the developing of the season:

Everton v Liverpool
Arsenal v Southampton
West Ham v Chelsea
City v Spurs
Cardiff v United (doesnt look like much but Cardiff away is a difficult fixture)

 

[Uncle Si]

Soton will be a tough matchup for Arse-nil. Both teams can score goals, but Soton doesn't ship too many. Fancy Liverpool to nick a result at Goodison, though.

City/Spurs could go either way, but you have to like City's form at the Etihad.

Love to take all three from the Bitters. Should start out in a 4-3-3 with mid of Lucas-Gerrard-Henderson. Coutinho-Suarez out wide, Sturridge up top.

I worry about Everton's midfield. they are very strong. and obviously Lukaku represents everything we struggle against in a striker. would not surprise me if ur Cbacks are Toure and Skrtel or sahko.

City wont concede at home to Spurs, atleast not more than once. I like City for all 3 points there. Southampton's defending is very underated. They press high and swarm. that said, Arsenal is the one team built to beat them. it will be a compelling matchup. Could see Arsenal getting a 1-0 win here, but i believe Soton is good for atleast a point

 

[Hawkspur]

I think there'll be more goals in the Soton - Arse-nil match. I'll go for a Desmond. 2-2.

Just like your degree.

 

[Uncle Si]

I think there'll be more goals in the Soton - Arse-nil match. I'll go for a Desmond. 2-2.

Just like your degree.

A Desmond is half of Spurs goal production this season....

 

[Hawkspur]

I think there'll be more goals in the Soton - Arse-nil match. I'll go for a Desmond. 2-2.

Just like your degree.

A Desmond is half of Spurs goal production this season....

It'd help, I think, if they'd play our most creative, incisive (and expensive) player.

 

[Hawkspur]

It's 2nd tier of 2nd class honours. Pretty good achievement but essentially a pass without much stretching beyond the bare minimum. Or better known as a Desmond.

 

[Uncle Si]

I think there'll be more goals in the Soton - Arse-nil match. I'll go for a Desmond. 2-2.

Just like your degree.

A Desmond is half of Spurs goal production this season....

It'd help, I think, if they'd play our most creative, incisive (and expensive) player.

Bale?

 

[Hawkspur]

Not who I had in mind, but yes please.

 

[InSuarezWeTrust]

What a match. Can we defend a set piece please? MOTM Has to be Mignolet.

Edit - Arsenal winning actually a pretty good result for Liverpool today.

 

[Uncle Si]

What a match. Can we defend a set piece please? MOTM Has to be Mignolet.

Edit - Arsenal winning actually a pretty good result for Liverpool today.

A fantastic match. Full of drama. Mirallas should have seem red. But its a derby. Too many unearned red cards ruined past matches.

Liverpool's midfield needs to get better if top 4 is ever a goal

 

[InSuarezWeTrust]

What a match. Can we defend a set piece please? MOTM Has to be Mignolet.

Edit - Arsenal winning actually a pretty good result for Liverpool today.

A fantastic match. Full of drama. Mirallas should have seem red. But its a derby. Too many unearned red cards ruined past matches.

Liverpool's midfield needs to get better if top 4 is ever a goal

Allen has to go. Just not good enough. Also, thought Skrtel could have been better today. Would like to see us pick up a solid wide player and another fullback that can play out on the right, preferrably. This team is so close to being there. Just need to shore up the defense. One clean sheet since September is not good enough.

Allen would be perfect if we had Europa league play. I really want to like him, cause he's Brendan's boy but he just doesn't affect the game positively in any way. Gerrard had a less than average game as well. I thought Lucas played well in the CDM role and protecting our back four. Henderson brings a lot of energy, some decent passes (not this game) and little else.

I don't have the breadth of knowledge about world football, but I feel we need cover for Coutinho and someone who can play the midfield and boss it for 90 minutes. I think our defense while not world class would benefit greatly from a stronger possession based midfield as some of the pressure off our back line. Id like to see some more of Moses and Alberto as well.