Wilson’s head is the issue not his finger

[TwistedHusky]

LTH,

Concede that our defense looked better than expected against GB.

I figured Aaron would be rusty, that was expected.

But I did not expect us to be able to shut down the run like we did.

So cautiously optimistic.


Not sure AZ is a good test of anything because they are missing their QB and ours is potentially injured/off.

Beating them by 30 or losing by 30 doesn't seem like it would tell us much other than both teams were not full strength.

But still hoping for a win regardless.

 

[hox]

All these things are correctable. Wilson just needs to make some adjustments just like every great QB in history. As far as Pete it remains to be seen if he can get Wilson to "get it". I personally think Wilson is going to make this adjustment vs AZ. I think he was embarrassed by his play in GB and I'm hoping he does what is necessary to win.. we will see...

A zebra doesn't change his stripes, especially not a 10-year veteran. Pete's player management style aside, you would think all the hours of watching game film, and tell-the-truth Mondays would have corrected these issues by now. Yet they persist.

Would be glad to be proven wrong.

But as I see it, this dynamic is no longer compatible. One or both of them needs to go.

 

[OrangeGravy]

Setting the invective/venting aside.

Not disputing the stills 45,

But what is the take?

If Wilson cannot be effective for Pete, then we need a coach that can find ways of making him effective.

Pete improving the defense and run game does not help us.

It just gets us right back to where we were for years,

A team that squeaks into the playoffs and get bounced in division games.


It sure looks like teams with good defense, good or great run games, and average or even slightly above average QBs do not go far in the playoffs. Usually, they don't even seem to advance. Once or twice you get someone like the Browns beating the Steelers, and the Browns had by far one of the best rushing attacks in the league (non-QB).

The NFL rules reward prolific scoring teams and QBs. We have one but we are not leveraging it.

Betting on Wilson may be a flaming disaster based on your observations. But what is the alternative? It looks like more years like the past 3. Worse, if/when we lose Wilson.

The whole point is that Russell is in year 10. No coach is fixing this problem. This is who he is. There's a chance he changes if/when he starts losing a4m strength, but something tells me Russell is never gonna accept that he can't make a throw until he's finally cut and out of the league 1 day.

 

[keasley45]

The comment about the Zebra not changing his stripes is accurate and troubling. There are examples where Russ just deosnt seem to see coverages or adjust plays, and then there are situations like the close of the Tennessee game where the only conclusion you can draw from his pass selection is that he decided before the snap that on first down, he was going to throw to Lock and on second down, he was going to throw to Metcalf. Watching the play unfold, that's all you can deduce. there was zero diagnosis of coverage or reading post snap where the ball should go - and he had protection. And thats to say nothing for the fact that we were running the ball well that day and when we get the ball back in OT, we drop back to pass 3 times...

Screenshot_20211117-122451_Chrome by J_Otte, on Flickr

Fitst down in OT

Screenshot_20211117-121926_Chrome by J_Otte, on Flickr

Lockett runs his defender up the sideline, and DK begins to drag across the field in the space along the left side that Lock is creating. the zone in front of him is entirely open. the ball should be thrown here. Russ has hit his drop. Would be a first down easy.

Screenshot_20211117-122300_Chrome by J_Otte, on Flickr

and instead he throws a jump ball to Lockett. This is basic QBing stuff.

Screenshot_20211117-122327_Chrome by J_Otte, on Flickr

View from behind at the moment DK turns and begins to cross. Russ has pressure to his left but a wide open pocket to his right and a blocker with no one to block, but it doesnt matter because he throws a jump ball as soon as he hits his drop. the defender ended up being pushed to Russ's left and he stood in the same spot he threw from through the incompletion.

Screenshot_20211117-122354_Chrome by J_Otte, on Flickr

And after the pass.

Can post 2nd down if there's interest. Its the play where DK runs a deep out and Lock a shallow out to the sticks and Russ lofts it over DK's head when Lock was open beneath...

 

[Spin Doctor]

Here is Kurt Warner saying the same thing as Keasley here with all-22 tape.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oq1NR9-zFig
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6BUU_FZAPE&t=1078s

Samuel Gold noticing the same things once again with all-22:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cnarei9FgGo&t=313s

 

[OrangeGravy]

Here is Kurt Warner saying the same thing as Keasley here with all-22 tape.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oq1NR9-zFig
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6BUU_FZAPE&t=1078s

Samuel Gold noticing the same things once again with all-22:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cnarei9FgGo&t=313s

This is Russell Wilson against good defenses without a solid running game. This is Russell Wilson against playoff teams and in the playoffs without a solid running game. This is who he's always been in these situations. Presnap and post snap he is a mental midget. This is who he will continue to be against good defenses and playoff teams. These skills are required to navigate through the postseason if you gonna be a pass heavy team. Go back and look at every playoff game Russell has played and see how many times he played above average when the running game wasn't clicking

Going to a team with an offensive minded head coach isn't gonna magically change Russell's ability to make reads. There may be a coach that he respects enough to convince him that he's making mistakes, but I've heard nothing from him that indicates that what he's doing is a problem. Sure he owns up to the bad picks, but he's acknowledging the bad throw while dismissing the fact that there are better reads on these plays.

 

[keasley45]

Here is Kurt Warner saying the same thing as Keasley here with all-22 tape.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oq1NR9-zFig
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6BUU_FZAPE&t=1078s

Samuel Gold noticing the same things once again with all-22:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cnarei9FgGo&t=313s

Crazy. ive never seen Kurts piece on Russ but look at the first play he analyzes against the Giants and the play that i selected vs the 9ers. ITS THE EXACT SAME PRESNAP READ AND RUSS DOES THE EXACT SAME, STUPID THING... and Kurt Warner basically says the same thing. When the corner shows blitz, you HAVE to change your read and go either to the middle or one of the other options. Against the 9ers, it was the right side of the field or the crosser. Vs the Giants, it was different. But he ends up just catching and throwing. the dude either is stubborn, or has no idea whats going on. He's obviously NOT learning from his mistakes because again, from one season to the next and in the EXACT defensive alignment, he does the same thing.

I dont get paid 30 mil to do this, nor have i ever played in the NFL and I can see it from the sofa as it happens. But again, the narrative is that there was no protection and he had to get rid of the ball. BS. He's constantly making questionable decisions.

Ans sorry. Maybe Geno isnt the answer, but its not THAT difficult to make the reads he is missing. He has to improve or he has to move on. Because doing this kind of thing... what we saw against the Packers isnt going to get us anywhere this year or next. Defenses know how to beat him.

 

[Jville]

This is an unusually good thread made possible by a number of thoughtful posts. :2thumbs:

I re-watched the Packers broad cast game and noted Tony Romo's remark that the Packer's Defense has had three excellent back to back games verses Kyler Murray then Patrick Mahomes and now Russell Wilson. Romo speculated that the Packers may have figured out how to dictate to that style of QB and offenses.

Wilson can't possibly have a worst game than he did in his first shut out. But, the league has seen 10 years of that style. This year's offensive upside may be lower than what many have been accustom to.

I also seem to remember a more humble Wilson ..... which is of great benefit when it comes to learning and adjusting to a changing game.

 

[LTH]

This is an unusually good thread made possible by a number of thoughtful posts. :2thumbs:

I re-watched the Packers broad cast game and noted Tony Romo's remark that the Packer's Defense has had three excellent back to back games verses Kyler Murray then Patrick Mahomes and now Russell Wilson. Romo speculated that the Packers may have figured out how to dictate to that style of QB and offenses.

Wilson can't possibly have a worst game than he did in his first shut out. But, the league has seen 10 years of that style. This year's offensive upside may be lower than what many have been accustom to.

I also seem to remember a more humble Wilson ..... which is of great benefit when it comes to learning and adjusting to a changing game.

This team is close to being a great team... its not a matter of talent and its not a matter of coaching or scheme...Wilson is the key to making this team go...

I believe he was embarrassed with the GB loss. I believe he will make the adjustments that need to be made because he has no other choice other than to lose and that is not in Wilsons DNA... the team is built in a certain way you can't change that dynamic scheme wise and expect to win...They have to run the ball and he has to make the adjustments as stated ....

So Keasley45's point either he is stupid or really stubborn is kind of on the table. He is Stubborn, but he is not stupid! I just don't see Carroll letting this season float away because of ego...It's way against what he believes and what he teaches. Carroll will work this out no question in m,y mind because if he doesn't they are toast...


LTH

 

[keasley45]

This is an unusually good thread made possible by a number of thoughtful posts. :2thumbs:

I re-watched the Packers broad cast game and noted Tony Romo's remark that the Packer's Defense has had three excellent back to back games verses Kyler Murray then Patrick Mahomes and now Russell Wilson. Romo speculated that the Packers may have figured out how to dictate to that style of QB and offenses.

Wilson can't possibly have a worst game than he did in his first shut out. But, the league has seen 10 years of that style. This year's offensive upside may be lower than what many have been accustom to.

I also seem to remember a more humble Wilson ..... which is of great benefit when it comes to learning and adjusting to a changing game.

This team is close to being a great team... its not a matter of talent and its not a matter of coaching or scheme...Wilson is the key to making this team go...

I believe he was embarrassed with the GB loss. I believe he will make the adjustments that need to be made because he has no other choice other than to lose and that is not in Wilsons DNA... the team is built in a certain way you can't change that dynamic scheme wise and expect to win...They have to run the ball and he has to make the adjustments as stated ....

So Keasley45's point either he is stupid or really stubborn is kind of on the table. He is Stubborn, but he is not stupid! I just don't see Carroll letting this season float away because of ego...It's way against what he believes and what he teaches. Carroll will work this out no question in m,y mind because if he doesn't they are toast...


LTH

I dont think he's stupid either. But the guy has got to start consistently doing the simple things accurately. He's got to. study up because that 9ers example speaks to not knowing or caring about what the defense is about to do to you. And his presnap awareness is questionable at best.

I remember Bruce Arians saying point blank that the QB needed to play better when critiquing Brady's play early last season. He used words like 'poor' and 'inexcusable'. It was important for him to do that because it sent a message not just to Brady, but to the team that no one was above criticism and that other players hard work wouldn't be sacrificed for the sake of one players standing. I think Pete's mistake last year when he saw what was happening was that he was too soft about it. He's always trying to take the positive road in leveling criticism. He CANT do that this year or he will lose all the good in this team. The defense is playing the best ball it's played in years and is set to build on that success going into next year. The line is good. The running game is solid. Special teams are good. If he doesn't grab hold of this thing firmly... we stand to lose it all.

 

[LTH]

20210103_175554 by J_Otte, on Flickr

Posted this before. Simple read... Lockett knows he will be open. theres nobody in the middle of the field. the defense has vacated it completely ... and they dont care.

20210103_175623 by J_Otte, on Flickr

Russ reaches his drop and stands there waiting for his WR's to run into coverage deep... Its literally the exact opposite of what he should be doing. The coverage is obvious. The read is obvious.

This should be what... a 15 yard gain?? Its a sack inside the 10 yardline.

It's interesting... I Don't think Schotty is a bad OC but it kind of feels like he took the hit... It's obvious that Schotty would see this decisions Wilson was making...


Whats your take on this? Was Schotty the fall guy?


Truth is we don't really know... maybe there was a philosophy difference between him and Carroll but you would think that if Wilson hit those middle passes the D will adjust and Wilson will get his long ball especially if the run Game is going...

your thoughts?


EDIT; I meant to post this on the Rams pic

LTH

 

[John63]

Only thing on Wilson's mind is how great he's gonna look in black and gold next year.

Proof?

 

[LTH]

One game is not a trend.

So one game against a rusty QB and everything is super-OK?

We can acknowledge that the CB play is better after changing the CBs.

Which helped pass defense. But I need to see something besides stopping a rusty QB, even Aaron Rodgers, beforehand.

We are a 3 win team. It might be too late.

Wilson has not been playing for weeks, so most of these failures are on Pete and Pete alone. Wilson came back and had one bad game.

Pete had a string of them.

Whatever Pete fixed better stay fixed, because that is the only way we have a chance. But it isn't good enough to be OK and that is where things are heading. 6-8 wins is a failure in a 17 game season.

I don't even think he gets that.

While i'm in agreement with most of this post, I did say I would judge the defense after the GB and Arizona games and so far they are making me look like I was wrong. They have improved. While they arent the 85' Bears like LTH is making them out to be, they certainly dont seem to be awful anymore either.

Actually the Hawks are playing a jam front like the Bears with 1 or 2 deep safety's good of you to recognize that LOL



LTH

 

[keasley45]

So with Schotty... i think it might have been a case of him defending his position at years end- that the games he was calling worked. I'm sure Pete wanted to change the approach and adjust to a more run based scheme. Schotty sees the same stuff we can on All 22 and I'm sure he looked at last season and said 'we shouldn't have lost against the Giants or Rams (x2) or Cardinals based on poor offensive play' . And I'm sure his argument, and it would be valid, is that those games would have been W's had the QB just done what he was supposed to. So the change that needs to be made is the QB needs to play better... not that the scheme is wrong.

Pete on the other hand knows Russ by now and is certain what he can and can't or won't do. So adhering to the idea that Russ needed tough love and just push through and do his job correctly was maybe a non starter for Pete.

And it's also possible that Russ may have saw the easier path forward being to get rid of the guy who was going to push harder on his flaws, not change the scheme, - because by now, Schotty knew all of them- and reset with a coach who could scheme around them. It preserves his reputation, shifts the narrative, and if a brilliant OC can come in and confuse defenses enough in his playcalls...well then if Russ's secret flaw is presnap reads... all of that gets a whole lot easier.

In comes Waldron. But there's only so much scheming around inability or stubborness that is possible. And here we are.

Not saying that's what happened, but when you look at his shortfalls now in year 10 and that with now a 3rd OC, we're running the same bland stuff and NOT creating off of anticipation... it in my opinion is an entirely plausible scenario. That and you take subtle remarks like Russ comment after the Titans game when asked about whether he could have helped the team more by taking more of what was available instead of looking for the big plays...his response was ' we put up 24 points '. That's an entirely defensive posture triggered by a question about his decision making. The answer was a profound yes, he could have helped. But that would be acknowledging the elephant in the room.

 

[OrangeGravy]

Here is Kurt Warner saying the same thing as Keasley here with all-22 tape.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oq1NR9-zFig
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6BUU_FZAPE&t=1078s

Samuel Gold noticing the same things once again with all-22:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cnarei9FgGo&t=313s

Crazy. ive never seen Kurts piece on Russ but look at the first play he analyzes against the Giants and the play that i selected vs the 9ers. ITS THE EXACT SAME PRESNAP READ AND RUSS DOES THE EXACT SAME, STUPID THING... and Kurt Warner basically says the same thing. When the corner shows blitz, you HAVE to change your read and go either to the middle or one of the other options. Against the 9ers, it was the right side of the field or the crosser. Vs the Giants, it was different. But he ends up just catching and throwing. the dude either is stubborn, or has no idea whats going on. He's obviously NOT learning from his mistakes because again, from one season to the next and in the EXACT defensive alignment, he does the same thing.

I dont get paid 30 mil to do this, nor have i ever played in the NFL and I can see it from the sofa as it happens. But again, the narrative is that there was no protection and he had to get rid of the ball. BS. He's constantly making questionable decisions.

Ans sorry. Maybe Geno isnt the answer, but its not THAT difficult to make the reads he is missing. He has to improve or he has to move on. Because doing this kind of thing... what we saw against the Packers isnt going to get us anywhere this year or next. Defenses know how to beat him.

They discuss it here in the first 15 minutes or so. It's pretty clear that Russell just doesn't like throwing over the middle. They talk about potential options to make up for that, but a lot of the other ways to attack the middle when the D is giving it to you, Russell doesn't care for either. One of the easiest ways is running the ball. I think if you did a blind survey of past really QBs, they'd tell you how limited Russell really is. Every sees it, but just doesnt want to say it. You can see it in their face when they start to talk about and hesitate. They can't accept that an 'elite' QB (I loath that word) could possibly have a hole that big in their game. The problem is starting from the premise of an elite QB. Once you start there, your brain won't allow you to get to where your eyes are telling you to go


https://youtu.be/mo1NT-EdvmI

 

[keasley45]

Here is Kurt Warner saying the same thing as Keasley here with all-22 tape.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oq1NR9-zFig
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6BUU_FZAPE&t=1078s

Samuel Gold noticing the same things once again with all-22:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cnarei9FgGo&t=313s

Crazy. ive never seen Kurts piece on Russ but look at the first play he analyzes against the Giants and the play that i selected vs the 9ers. ITS THE EXACT SAME PRESNAP READ AND RUSS DOES THE EXACT SAME, STUPID THING... and Kurt Warner basically says the same thing. When the corner shows blitz, you HAVE to change your read and go either to the middle or one of the other options. Against the 9ers, it was the right side of the field or the crosser. Vs the Giants, it was different. But he ends up just catching and throwing. the dude either is stubborn, or has no idea whats going on. He's obviously NOT learning from his mistakes because again, from one season to the next and in the EXACT defensive alignment, he does the same thing.

I dont get paid 30 mil to do this, nor have i ever played in the NFL and I can see it from the sofa as it happens. But again, the narrative is that there was no protection and he had to get rid of the ball. BS. He's constantly making questionable decisions.

Ans sorry. Maybe Geno isnt the answer, but its not THAT difficult to make the reads he is missing. He has to improve or he has to move on. Because doing this kind of thing... what we saw against the Packers isnt going to get us anywhere this year or next. Defenses know how to beat him.

They discuss it here in the first 15 minutes or so. It's pretty clear that Russell just doesn't like throwing over the middle. They talk about potential options to make up for that, but a lot of the other ways to attack the middle when the D is giving it to you, Russell doesn't care for either. One of the easiest ways is running the ball. I think if you did a blind survey of past really QBs, they'd tell you how limited Russell really is. Every sees it, but just doesnt want to say it. You can see it in their face when they start to talk about and hesitate. They can't accept that an 'elite' QB (I loath that word) could possibly have a hole that big in their game. The problem is starting from the premise of an elite QB. Once you start there, your brain won't allow you to get to where your eyes are telling you to go


https://youtu.be/mo1NT-EdvmI

Sad thing is that it's not even just the middle.

 

[Jville]

This is an unusually good thread made possible by a number of thoughtful posts. :2thumbs:

I re-watched the Packers broad cast game and noted Tony Romo's remark that the Packer's Defense has had three excellent back to back games verses Kyler Murray then Patrick Mahomes and now Russell Wilson. Romo speculated that the Packers may have figured out how to dictate to that style of QB and offenses.

Wilson can't possibly have a worst game than he did in his first shut out. But, the league has seen 10 years of that style. This year's offensive upside may be lower than what many have been accustom to.

I also seem to remember a more humble Wilson ..... which is of great benefit when it comes to learning and adjusting to a changing game.

This team is close to being a great team... its not a matter of talent and its not a matter of coaching or scheme...Wilson is the key to making this team go...

I believe he was embarrassed with the GB loss. I believe he will make the adjustments that need to be made because he has no other choice other than to lose and that is not in Wilsons DNA... the team is built in a certain way you can't change that dynamic scheme wise and expect to win...They have to run the ball and he has to make the adjustments as stated ....

So Keasley45's point either he is stupid or really stubborn is kind of on the table. He is Stubborn, but he is not stupid! I just don't see Carroll letting this season float away because of ego...It's way against what he believes and what he teaches. Carroll will work this out no question in m,y mind because if he doesn't they are toast...


LTH

As I recall ....... prior to drafting Wilson, Carroll invested some time in consulting with Bud Grant who coached Fran Tarkington as his quarterback. So, I would think Carroll is about as prepared as he can be to deal with the current challenge. The Arizona game should be telling.

 

[OrangeGravy]

This is an unusually good thread made possible by a number of thoughtful posts. :2thumbs:

I re-watched the Packers broad cast game and noted Tony Romo's remark that the Packer's Defense has had three excellent back to back games verses Kyler Murray then Patrick Mahomes and now Russell Wilson. Romo speculated that the Packers may have figured out how to dictate to that style of QB and offenses.

Wilson can't possibly have a worst game than he did in his first shut out. But, the league has seen 10 years of that style. This year's offensive upside may be lower than what many have been accustom to.

I also seem to remember a more humble Wilson ..... which is of great benefit when it comes to learning and adjusting to a changing game.

This team is close to being a great team... its not a matter of talent and its not a matter of coaching or scheme...Wilson is the key to making this team go...

I believe he was embarrassed with the GB loss. I believe he will make the adjustments that need to be made because he has no other choice other than to lose and that is not in Wilsons DNA... the team is built in a certain way you can't change that dynamic scheme wise and expect to win...They have to run the ball and he has to make the adjustments as stated ....

So Keasley45's point either he is stupid or really stubborn is kind of on the table. He is Stubborn, but he is not stupid! I just don't see Carroll letting this season float away because of ego...It's way against what he believes and what he teaches. Carroll will work this out no question in m,y mind because if he doesn't they are toast...


LTH

I dont think he's stupid either. But the guy has got to start consistently doing the simple things accurately. He's got to. study up because that 9ers example speaks to not knowing or caring about what the defense is about to do to you. And his presnap awareness is questionable at best.

I remember Bruce Arians saying point blank that the QB needed to play better when critiquing Brady's play early last season. He used words like 'poor' and 'inexcusable'. It was important for him to do that because it sent a message not just to Brady, but to the team that no one was above criticism and that other players hard work wouldn't be sacrificed for the sake of one players standing. I think Pete's mistake last year when he saw what was happening was that he was too soft about it. He's always trying to take the positive road in leveling criticism. He CANT do that this year or he will lose all the good in this team. The defense is playing the best ball it's played in years and is set to build on that success going into next year. The line is good. The running game is solid. Special teams are good. If he doesn't grab hold of this thing firmly... we stand to lose it all.

Russell is gonna look good against teams like the Jags that play a lot of man and don't play 2 high. He's gonna look mediocre to bad against teams that stay back if they can't or don't run the ball well often enough. It's as simple as that. That is what Russell's career is gonna look like going forward because that's basically what it's always been. It's the reason we as a team and he as the QB struggle so much in the playoffs. The only way we typically beat good teams with Russell is when we hold them under 20. Perfect example is beating the Rams 20-9 at the end of the regular season last year. It usually takes either a defensive score or short field turnovers to get to 20+. Good teams are gonna take away what you do best and when you're not well rounded enough to attack what they're giving you, you lose. Elite QBs can take advantage of that more often than not. They don't go multiple years without fixing a glaring hole like that.

And I dont want to hear about stats and dvoa. Those don't beat good playoff teams. They might get you in, but good teams are gonna shove dvoa up your ass in the playoffs. The LOB made their name doing it

 

[xray]

If Wilson can no longer be the 4rth quarter guru , then what ?

 

[keasley45]

LTH and a few other said it. Put him back time the efficient manager role and rely on a creative run game mixed with formation variations pass from the same look and we can be competitive.

Keep relying on Russ ball and we are in trouble.

That's not to say that we go to the extreme we did against NO (that was absurd), but if we're 55/45 run to pass, I think that's right.