Why I think Seattle will probably win Super Bowl 48

[kearly]

First off, for the Broncos fans lurkers, I have nothing but love for the Broncos, as someone who lived in Colorado for a good long time, including all of my many college years. Many of my best friends are diehard Broncos fans, and we've talked about a "dream" Super Bowl between our two teams for over a decade now.

Hell, I even liked the Broncos before I moved to Colorado. John Elway was the anti-Christ in our division for the better part of two decades, going to more Super Bowls than any other QB in NFL history during that time. One of my favorite wins ever was the MNF game in 1992 for that second win. Beating Denver was always a little extra special, maybe even more so than beating SF in modern times. Though most fans hate rivals, I actually like them. Rivalries make the game better.

And I don't disrespect the Broncos as a team. They are without question an elite team, quite possibly the best team Peyton Manning has ever played for given their excellence over both 2012 and 2013, ranking #2 in DVOA both years, behind Seattle both times.

The Saints are a different team from the Broncos. Their receiver corps is nowhere near the caliber of Denver's, even if you include the TE position into the discussion it still isn't close. The Broncos are a better offense, but the Saints offense did still kick a lot of ass this season, ranking 3rd in the NFL in pass offense DVOA. There were a LOT of pundits who picked the Saints to walk all over the Seahawks defense during that critical MNF showdown back in early December. Of course, we all know how that worked out for the Saints when the game was actually played.

If you looked at Seattle's defensive scoring average and the Saints offensive scoring average and went down the middle, you would have projected the Saints to score somewhere in the low 20s in each of those games. Instead, the Saints averaged just 11 points per game in those two contests. Why the undershoot? The reason is because offense is about rhythm, defense is about disruption. Elite offenses achieve rhythm on a very high level, but this also means they have more to lose when disrupted because everything is so fine tuned.

Remember when the 49ers went 13-3 in 2011 and we thought it was probably a fluke because of the turnover luck and how every opponent they faced that season seemed to be off their game that week? True, some of that was indeed good luck, but not all of it. Defensive teams specialize in making games ugly, and when ugly games happen the teams don't look very good. And because defense first teams usually play in ugly games every week, they learn how to win ugly.

How have the Broncos fared this season in ugly games, by the way? Any games this year where Manning just didn't look like himself and they still won? Now think about all the ugly games this year where Seattle made mistake after mistake and yet somehow walked away with an improbable win. This probably also explains why the #1 defense has beaten the #1 offense in the Super Bowl in four of the five such meetings (the only #1 defense to lose? Denver in 1990). Teams with the #1 defense are 11-3 all time in the Super Bowl. The #1 offense is 10-8.

The Broncos aren't going to win with their defense. Statistically it is a middle of the pack defense, but their biggest weak spot is in the secondary, which ranks 11th worst in pass D DVOA. That bodes well for Seattle because when their receivers can get open, Seattle's offense usually rolls. And with Harvin playing, 25 points for Seattle feels like a comfortable, if not conservative projection. More importantly, Denver just doesn't have the athletes in the front seven to combat the mobility that Wilson can threaten with. If Denver's offense struggles, they shouldn't expect to win this game.

Don't forget special teams either, another area where Seattle holds a decisive advantage. Seattle's special teams was ranked #1 by PFF and was #1 by FO until the very end of the season (finished 5th). The Broncos special teams ranked 21st this season. And that was with Percy Harvin returning just one kick for Seattle this year, with the likes of Robert Turbin having many a kick returned to the 15 yard line for most of the season.

If the Broncos do win, it will be because Peyton Manning reaches the upper twenties, maybe the thirties for the win. Normally that's a walk in the park for him: he averaged around 38 points a game this season (while playing one of the weaker defensive schedules in the NFL). But will he have his usual way with the NFL's very best defense, and one of the best secondaries in NFL history? Only five total defensive units have scored higher in football outsiders database in the last 25 seasons (the secondary is so epically good that the entire defense as a whole is in the greatest of all time discussion). Maybe Manning does put up a lot of points and wins in Broncos fashion, but if he manages to do so, I hope he is given god status by the media. Because such a feat truly would be god-like.

And I think that's what he'll need. I think Seattle gets to 25, 27, 31, something like that. Will Denver get to 26, 28, 32? Respectfully, I doubt it. Football Outsiders sees it the same way, giving Seattle a 58% / 42% edge in this game.

That's just the stats angle. The matchups really favor Seattle as well. Seattle's WRs versus a crummy secondary. Denver's big WRs vs. Seattle's big DBs (advantage, DBs). Fast LBs on a fast TE (Seattle has defensed TEs very well in 2013). A pair of slowish RBs who are more solid than explosive (I love Moreno- he made me look like a genius in fantasy, but he's exactly the kind of back Seattle stops cold). And for as epic as Manning has been this season, there might not be a QB in 2013 who had less zip on his passes, which should be interesting against by far the NFL's most aggressive ball hawking defense.

I think this will be a competitive game, but it will be a game dictated by Seattle's terms and that's why they will win. My gut says Seattle actually scores a little over that 25 mark I posted earlier, I think the aggressiveness Pete showed in the NFCCG will continue in the SB.

Seattle 31
Denver 24

 

[davidonmi]

statistically they're average but they're playing above average in the playoffs.
I say it again they play well as a unit, but talentwise they are average with all those injuries. Good unit, but one that can be had.
And people seem to now think our offense stinks, ludicrous.
SEA 28, DEN 27

 

[Hawknballs]

I have yet to dig into the guts of this game but my early prediction is 30-20 Seahawks.

 

[kearly]

You look at Denver's defense away from home (and exclude "quit" games like Oakland and Houston in the last two games) and it's a very different picture. I think average is actually a little generous for a game away from home, especially considering that Seattle's offense is more dynamic than any offense they've faced in some time. That defense gives up explosive plays, and Seattle's offense had the 2nd most explosive plays in the NFL this season, and that was without Harvin.

I think Seattle's offense will move the ball about as well as SF's offense did in the previous SB, in the sense that it is a dynamic, unconventional offense against a slow-ish defense. Baltimore still won, but they didn't win with defense, that's for sure. Baltimore pretended to be tough guys and Kaepernick still walked all over them in the 2nd half.

 

[plyka]

I agree with this post. I feel far more comfortable against the Broncos than I did versus the niners or even Carolina/Saints. And I was comfortable against the Saints. Let's remember that the niners had the 2nd best defense in the league, and the Saints had a top 5 defense. They had an especially good pass defense. I did underestimate the Saints defense at the time, but they proved me wrong. They looked great in teh divisional round of the playoffs. That said, they were still dominated by the Hawks.

This is the PERFECT matchup for the Seahawks. Their strength is that they play a non tricky defense. They rarely blitz. They bring 4 and either play man or an aggressive zone. This is a horrible match up for Denver. They thrive on beating the blitz, on beating defenses attempting to be tricky with short passes that turn into long runs. But that will not happen against the Hawks. I think that the Hawks will DOMINATE! Cold blooded!

The Seahawks offense is much better than advertised. And the Denver defense is a finesse defense which cannot stop any QB. They played well against a destroyed New England side. But seriously, New England and San Diego? I think the worst team in the NFC West would be a good opponent for these two teams. The top 4 teams in the NFC are all superior and it's not even close. In fact, the top 4 teams in the NFC may all be better than Denver.

Every angle is a favorite for the Hawks. The defense matches up perfectly with Denver's offense. Their offense matches up perfectly with Denver's defense. It is an outdoor game and Peyton has a noodle arm. Percy is finally going to come back and be healthy. Denver has been decimated by injuries. The only hope that Denver has is to turn it into a shootout, as Indy did agains the Hawks.

 

[Throwdown]

I honestly see this game being like the Patriots game a year ago (you know that one where everyone that #3 was an absolute stud), not gonna make a prediction cuz whenever I do bad things happen lol.

 

[kigenzun]

One factor I don't see/hear you mentioning yet kearly is the weather factor. I was just watching the news and the entire East Coast is covered in a foot of snow, with more apparently on the way. Please add how you see the weather affecting this game, especially if it somehow ends up some kind o crazy Snow Super Bowl.

 

[formido]

Agreed. Great passing offenses like this look unstoppable when their choreography is unimpeded, but it's an illusion and breaking their flow makes them normal. We've seen it time and again, but people always fall for it. Plus, if Harvin had played all season, Seattle would have the #1 offensive DVOA in the NFL and the best total DVOA of all time, IMO. Barring a whole game of fumble luck like we got for the first 3 quarters of the NFCCG, this is in the bag.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

I have yet to dig into the guts of this game but my early prediction is 30-20 Seahawks.

I'm going with 34-24 unless Hawkscanner convinces me differently.

 

[Rob12]

Amazing thoughts as always, kearly.

 

[MileHighFish]

This thread wreaks of "ifs and buts" along with a good dose of personal biased opinion (although the original poster goes to great lengths to explain how they believe Denver is a great team and there is no disrespect) then gives a complete backhand... Just saying. And how is the advantage between Denver's big receivers and Seattle's big DBs advantage Seattle? The NFL rules are built to favor offenses. That is a fact. It will be known early if the officials let Seattle's dbs be physical or not. If they are allowed to, big advantage Seattle. If not, then it could be a long night for them.

 

[MileHighFish]

Regarding special teams, according to Football Outsiders, (if I read correctly) Denver is #1 in the "Hidden" category that represents the advantage teams have received from elements of special teams generally out of their control: opposing field goals, kickoff distance, and punt distance. It is listed as points worth of estimated field position, and is ranked from the team with the biggest advantage to the team with the biggest disadvantage with +21.4 while Seattle is ranked 19th with -2.7. If I am reading this wrong, please let me know. My point is anybody can find stats in order to back up their opinions but nothing will be settled until the game is played...

 

[Laloosh]

This thread wreaks of "ifs and buts" along with a good dose of personal biased opinion (although the original poster goes to great lengths to explain how they believe Denver is a great team and there is no disrespect) then gives a complete backhand... Just saying. And how is the advantage between Denver's big receivers and Seattle's big DBs advantage Seattle? The NFL rules are built to favor offenses. That is a fact. It will be known early if the officials let Seattle's dbs be physical or not. If they are allowed to, big advantage Seattle. If not, then it could be a long night for them.

How would you say they've called it for dbs thus far in the playoffs? I think it tends to lean toward "let them play". Regarding "ifs and buts", he's provided opinion. In what way was "this is opinion" not clearly implied? Aside from the stats he was looking at and his opinion, where else can anyone go with it? Should he have based everything on the preseason game? You know, the only tangible thing to really illustrate how the two teams might match up?

With regard to special teams (in your 2nd post). Denver has started with worse field position (on average) but have scored at a much higher rate. Doesn't say anything about whether or not SEA instantly gains an advantage in the return game for example, by the return of oh, the most explosive return guy in the game does it?

 

[Wartooth]

Great break down as usual Kearly!
But you forgot about the X-Factor...
Champ Bailey has a lot more 'class' than Sherman, so somehow that will equate to him being a stud corner again!
According to Donkos fans!

 

[HawKnPeppa]

This thread wreaks of "ifs and buts" along with a good dose of personal biased opinion (although the original poster goes to great lengths to explain how they believe Denver is a great team and there is no disrespect) then gives a complete backhand... Just saying. And how is the advantage between Denver's big receivers and Seattle's big DBs advantage Seattle? The NFL rules are built to favor offenses. That is a fact. It will be known early if the officials let Seattle's dbs be physical or not. If they are allowed to, big advantage Seattle. If not, then it could be a long night for them.

NEWS FLASH.. you are on a Seahawks fan forum. Now how 'bout you provide your own biased post that explains why you think Bronkos will win. :?

 

[MileHighFish]

This thread wreaks of "ifs and buts" along with a good dose of personal biased opinion (although the original poster goes to great lengths to explain how they believe Denver is a great team and there is no disrespect) then gives a complete backhand... Just saying. And how is the advantage between Denver's big receivers and Seattle's big DBs advantage Seattle? The NFL rules are built to favor offenses. That is a fact. It will be known early if the officials let Seattle's dbs be physical or not. If they are allowed to, big advantage Seattle. If not, then it could be a long night for them.

How would you say they've called it for dbs thus far in the playoffs? I think it tends to lean toward "let them play". Regarding "ifs and buts", he's provided opinion. In what way was "this is opinion" not clearly implied? Aside from the stats he was looking at and his opinion, where else can anyone go with it? Should he have based everything on the preseason game? You know, the only tangible thing to really illustrate how the two teams might match up?

With regard to special teams (in your 2nd post). Denver has started with worse field position (on average) but have scored at a much higher rate. Doesn't say anything about whether or not SEA instantly gains an advantage in the return game for example, by the return of oh, the most explosive return guy in the game does it?

I simply said stats can be skewed to prove whatever their motive or intent may be. Regarding special teams and "the most explosive return guy in the game", I will take my chances with Holliday (28 kick returns, 775 yards, 27.7 average with a long of 105 and 1 td) versus someone who has 1 return for 58 yards all season because of being sidelined almost the entire year because of injury....

 

[MileHighFish]

This thread wreaks of "ifs and buts" along with a good dose of personal biased opinion (although the original poster goes to great lengths to explain how they believe Denver is a great team and there is no disrespect) then gives a complete backhand... Just saying. And how is the advantage between Denver's big receivers and Seattle's big DBs advantage Seattle? The NFL rules are built to favor offenses. That is a fact. It will be known early if the officials let Seattle's dbs be physical or not. If they are allowed to, big advantage Seattle. If not, then it could be a long night for them.

NEWS FLASH.. you are on a Seahawks fan forum. Now how 'bout you provide your own biased post that explains why you think Bronkos will win. :?

I have pointed out in several of my posts I am a Denver fan and expect Seattle fans to believe their team will win... I have yet to make any prediction and am here to discuss the game. Some posters (both fan bases) simply amaze me however with their rationale of why X team will be Y team.... The message board equivalent to "my dad can beat up your dad" :mrgreen:

A lot of time left until the game and I will hold off on any predictions until a little closer to kickoff.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

This thread wreaks of "ifs and buts" along with a good dose of personal biased opinion (although the original poster goes to great lengths to explain how they believe Denver is a great team and there is no disrespect) then gives a complete backhand... Just saying. And how is the advantage between Denver's big receivers and Seattle's big DBs advantage Seattle? The NFL rules are built to favor offenses. That is a fact. It will be known early if the officials let Seattle's dbs be physical or not. If they are allowed to, big advantage Seattle. If not, then it could be a long night for them.

I have watched your team for the last TWO years because I have no choice and here it is.... you run a finesse offense with soft receivers beyond Welker despite their size I don't get it, seriously.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

This thread wreaks of "ifs and buts" along with a good dose of personal biased opinion (although the original poster goes to great lengths to explain how they believe Denver is a great team and there is no disrespect) then gives a complete backhand... Just saying. And how is the advantage between Denver's big receivers and Seattle's big DBs advantage Seattle? The NFL rules are built to favor offenses. That is a fact. It will be known early if the officials let Seattle's dbs be physical or not. If they are allowed to, big advantage Seattle. If not, then it could be a long night for them.

How would you say they've called it for dbs thus far in the playoffs? I think it tends to lean toward "let them play". Regarding "ifs and buts", he's provided opinion. In what way was "this is opinion" not clearly implied? Aside from the stats he was looking at and his opinion, where else can anyone go with it? Should he have based everything on the preseason game? You know, the only tangible thing to really illustrate how the two teams might match up?

With regard to special teams (in your 2nd post). Denver has started with worse field position (on average) but have scored at a much higher rate. Doesn't say anything about whether or not SEA instantly gains an advantage in the return game for example, by the return of oh, the most explosive return guy in the game does it?

I simply said stats can be skewed to prove whatever their motive or intent may be. Regarding special teams and "the most explosive return guy in the game", I will take my chances with Holliday (28 kick returns, 775 yards, 27.7 average with a long of 105 and 1 td) versus someone who has 1 return for 58 yards all season because of being sidelined almost the entire year because of injury....

Haliday is a fumble waiting to happen.

 

[calinator]

I'm worried about Peyton marching the field on us because we can't get enough pressure. Yes the secondary is the strength of our team but even though the pass rush is pretty good the Broncos pass protection is amazing and Peyton is fast with the football. You can have 5 Richard Shermans out there but there needs to be a rush or it makes no difference. My biggest fear is we start the game giving up 2-3 long TD drives and the defense is immediately gassed. Flame away but I hope i'm wrong.