Why I hope we don't trade up

[MontanaHawk05]

I've had a nagging feeling growing for a while that we're further from contention - on defense as well as offense - than even some of the more optimistic people on this board think.

Most of the chatter is caught up on the offensive line. I personally don't expect Seattle to go OL with their first-round pick; I also don't expect Seattle's OL to be as bad as it was last year, because I've been persuaded by the chatter about how badly our offensive coaching staff was handling things last year and putting them in impossible positions.

But my concerns go beyond that. For one thing, I feel that Seattle has a "decent player" problem. For another, we've got injury concerns at critical positions. For a third, we've got people getting older.

When I look at Seattle's Super Bowl team, I see world-beaters at an awful lot of positions. An unusual number. I don't know if I expect John Schneider to ever pull that off again, because I don't know if anyone has in recent decades. Most teams are carried by their quarterbacks now and have covered up numerous holes on the roster. But the fact remains that you don't want to settle for merely decent players and then hope for a Brady or Mahomes to pop in. You want All Pros. Every GM will be thinking like that.

I see a lot more decent players on this defense than I do world-beaters. That probably isn't a popular thing to say atm, because the defense proved fairly solid last year and they've really learnt how to execute Mike's zone defense, and because we've been excited about the pass rush. But how many world-beaters do we really have on this D? I see...Big Cat, IV, and Spoon. That's it. Julian Love is a decent player. He's also not a world-beater. I just don't see that. I know he's gotten his accolades. But nobody is seeing a HOF player there and darn it, I'd like to see one somewhere. Same with Coby Bryant, but not as good. Riq is schizo and probably isn't here next year. And...I've tried, but I'm not sold on our pass rush. Mafe is streaky. Hall is too. Let's just get it out there. People have been saying it. Nwosu didn't do anything after returning from injury. Jarran Reed, we all love him, I think he's probably helping the roster in the intrinstic and veteran presence stuff, but he isn't doing much in terms of actual production. I'm a big fan of Byron Murphy and Tyrice Knight and they might take a leap forward in '25 (along with Christian Haynes), but what if they don't?

Sacks are at a premium in this league. As the NFL keeps deploying those shifty, fast, escapable QB's who can wriggle out of sacks like Gumby and then roll out to throw a 400-yard touchdown, actually putting a guy on the ground is becoming a commodity. It ain't about pressures anymore.

I also don't feel that the non-OL offense is in a good place. We have no tight ends. Some have been excited about AJ Barner. I see a JAG, like Nick Vannett. He's there to make the catches that come his way, but some catches HAVE to come a tight end's way. Cross and Lucas have proven serviceable rather than good enough to lift those around them. Marquez Valdez-Scantling is a big drops guy.

Then let's talk about injuries. Walker and Kupp likely don't last the full season, says my cynical self. That's two incredibly critical pieces on offense. JSN is immediately doubled all season if Kupp goes down, and nobody wants to see Darnold get all the weight of defense's attention without a run game. Nwosu, again, not been his old self. Lucas has missed a lot of time and his knee condition has been rumored as degenerative.

Finally, you've got old guys at some critical positions. This accounts for Lawrence (32), Williams (30), Reed (32), Nwosu (28), Kupp (31), Love (27), Valdez-Scantling (30), Fant (27), Myers (33), Dickson (29), and of course Darnold (27).

My expectation of Seattle contending in 2025 was already out the window once Geno, DK, and Lockett left, but even with them here, I felt Seattle needing to take steps forward in multiple areas in order to really have a shot. Now that our free agency signed all these cryptkeepers, that feeling has not been alleviated. I've just kinda been sensing that 2025 was one of those years where we find our roster a bit overrated. Age, injury, and several possible sophomore slumps. There are a couple contract years (Mafe, Riq, Lucas) that might help, but they're a gamble.

So...

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When people talk about us having too many picks to fit on the roster and bundling them to trade up, I'm like, NO! DRAFT DUDES! LOTS OF DUDES! You know? I'm immensely happy with five picks in the first three rounds. Use them ALL on picks. In fact, trade down from #18 and pick up an extra third. Our DL is old enough, our offense injury-hampered and empty enough, and our overall team generally "just decent" enough that I'm actually very excited about flooding the roster with competition. Plan for life after Big Cat, Riq, and Reed. It's NOT too early. Make Hall, Mafe, and Coby compete. Get a real tight end and a dynamic young receiver to take pressure off JSN. And yes - the offensive line. Absolutely the offensive line. And maybe, as long as it's not in the first round, MAYBE even a quarterback.

I just don't know what it is that makes people think this roster is "almost there". Let's use ALL the picks. No trading up.

 

[Scout]

IF JS trades out of the first round all I have to say is that he is falling back into some old bad habits. Nothing wrong with trading down later in the draft for future picks but if he trades out of the first round for peanuts then expect chaos...lots of chaos.

That is all!

 

[Rat]

Wouldnt trading down increase the chances of having more "decent players" as opposed to "world beaters"? Even if we traded up, we'd still likely have at least seven other picks, and we could trade down even further with some of them.

It depends how the board falls to me. We should be open to anything.

 

[sutz]

I would be very shocked if they trade up. Doesn't make any sense this year.

Would not be surprised if they trade back, except that the talking heads don't expect a lot of movement this draft. We'll see.

Lot talent available at #18 but still a lot in Rd 2 & 3 as well.

 

[Seahawker]

We have 5 top 100 picks, we need to use them wisely from a trying to build a playoff roster perspective.
Everyone knows my opinion on the OLine, it is unquestionably our biggest weakness. I would use a 1st & 2nd or a 1st & 3rd on OL.
My next priority to maximize team improvement would be adding a DT, LBer and safety or CB to the defense. This would be done in the 2nd and two 3rds or with two 2nds and a 3rd.
That would be my strategy with very little give in it. No WR or TE high, only on day 3. We are not that much in need of O-weapons and can add a vet preseason cut or two if needed.
Either
18) OL
50) DT
52) OL
82) Safety/CB
92) LB
OR
18) OL
50) DT
52) Safety/CB
82) OL
92) LB
Plenty of ways to put those four positions in sequence. But if you throw a TE or WR in there (especially high) it just dilutes everything and derails your objective. We need to add big talent & upside to our OL, otherwise we are just adding similar talent to the project pool.
I want 2 OL and 3 defense, day 1 & 2.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

Wouldnt trading down increase the chances of having more "decent players" as opposed to "world beaters"? Even if we traded up, we'd still likely have at least seven other picks, and we could trade down even further with some of them.

1. What I'm saying is that we have too many holes for that strategy, more than most people realize. Given the starting DL's age, our overall lack of depth, the injury risk floating around, our clear-and-present ACTUAL lack at several key positions (CB2, WR3, kick returner, TE1, possibly C and RG), and the youth of several of last year's breakouts, I'd frankly like us to be drafting as if it was 2011. And as great as John was with late-round picks that year, I don't want us relying on them if we have the Day 2 ammo.

2. The positions we're probably seeking with our first-round pick (IOL, DL, TE, WR) are deep in this draft. Sacrificing a second-rounder to move up a few spots isn't going to be worth it pound-for-pound.