Hawknballs
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What a difference a week makes.
Before we even get to what was probably the most start-to-finish complete game of the season for the Seahawks, let’s take stock of some other results around the league that should help put this 9-1 start into perspective:
• In Arizona, the Cardinals are now over .500 and are technically only a game or so behind the 49ers for the 6th seed in the NFL playoffs. We defeated them handily on the road a few weeks ago in a game that really wouldn’t have been nearly as close as the final score if not for a ramshackle offensive line doing a suspect job of keeping Wilson clean.
• In Indianapolis, the Rams obliterated Andrew Luck and the Colts 38-6. Suddenly, the game of survival we played in St. Louis looks more like two tough teams battling till the end of the game with the road team finding a way to pull out the victory than the “ugly win” most folks (myself included) had immediately labeled it after it was over. It was Ugly, no doubt – but it was obviously more than that. Hopefully we’ll have everything wrapped up nicely for the 1-seed by Dec. 29th so we can prolong concerns about how we deal with the upstart Rams until next season. Overlooking them would be a mistake I’ve already made once this season.
• Finally, down in San Francisco, the Panthers punished the 49ers (YESSSSSSSS!) in a game in which the final score doesn’t really properly encompass the savage beating that the Pathers delivered to Jim Harbaugh’s team. The 49ers were held to 151 net yards in their own stadium. Kaeperdink’s net passing yards after being sacked six times was a paltry 45. Niner trolls around the internet were quick to site our 12-7 opening day win at Carolina as “weak/lucky” – but I didn’t see the red and gold D punching the ball out of Deangelo William’s hands as he ran towards the end zone like our guys did.
This Seahawks win brings up a point that you’ve probably heard by now: As long as the Seahawks continue to win out at home, they are almost certainly guaranteed a first-round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Even if they lose to the 49ers and Giants in their two remaining road games, they would still be the #1 seed should they win out at home. The ONLY possible way this doesn’t work out are some really wonky tie-breakers should the Lions win out, and the chances that all of the possible tie breakers don’t fall our way are insignificant and not worth getting into.
This means that as long Seahawks keep winning at home, they will go to the Superbowl.
So that’s a ton of information and really there isn’t too much about the game to delve too deeply into – it was simply a three-phase throttling of a team that is much worse than I thought they were. Even with all their injury troubles, I can’t believe a team that was 13-3 last year is so bad. What I will say is that, falcons pass rush terrible or otherwise, when Russell Wilson has time to throw there is 0 doubt in his ability to make plays and throw the ball accurately – and there is no reason to think that our receivers can’t get the job done. Kearse, Tate, and Baldwin are making the loss of Rice look like a fairly minor speed bump. Now we’ll add Harvin to the mix and a healthy O-line, just in time for the playoff push (and the holidays!).
Even though the Falcons ranked 32nd in rushing, I had some concerns there given the Seahawks recent inability to stop the run. And that was before Red Bryant was ruled out. However, containing Stephen Jackson was no problem, rushing nine times for 11 yards. This includes a long run of 5. Meaning that on his other eight carries he managed six yards. As I expected, Jacquizz Rodgers was a bigger factor with 31 yards rushing on three carries and seven targets in the passing game, but we neutralized him fairly well. I was glad to see our guys do a good job of containing him; we’re going to need that kind of containment on a quicker, smaller back when Darren Sproles comes to town.
Overall it was a dominant performance on both sides of the ball. Even though my prediction about how tight the game would be was way off, one part it I’m glad the Seahawks accomplished:
“. . . that is all predicated on shutting down the running game and the dink and dunk junk that Atlanta’s been doing lately. Then again, they are 2-6 playing that style of football so we can win that way as well – we just need to capitalize on our offensive opportunities in that scenario rather than relying on turnovers.”
With an unhealthy Roddy White and Harry Douglas bottled up most of the game, it was once again the dink-and-dunk offense; and the Seahawks capitalized on their opportunities. They scored on seven of their nine drives, and never went three-and-out. Although they did get a fumble and there was an opportunity for at least one interception, for the most part Ryan was careful with the ball. Probably too careful.
Fun Fact of the week:
The Seahawks are tied with the Eagles for the most road wins in the NFL this season (5).
Russell Wilson:
63.4 Completion %
213 yards/game; 8.3 yards/attempt
17 TD; 6 INT
101.8 QB Rating
395 Rush Yards, 1 TD
Colin Kaepernick:
56.4 Completion %
186 yards/game; 7.6 yards/attempt
9 TD; 6 INT
83.1 QB Rating
310 Rush Yards, 3 TD
The Good:
• Carolina over SF
• Philadelphia over Green Bay
• Minnesota over Washington
Obviously the big deal this week is Carolina over SF; that pretty much makes every other result sort of meaningless in comparison, unless the Cowboys had upset the saints. Philly removes much likelihood of Green Bay winning that division, let alone being a 1st seed competitor, and right now the Packers are on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs in general are concerned. Minnesota boots its strength-of-victory numbers over Washington, but as a tie breaker that matters less now that we own a common-opponents win over SF with their loss to the Panthers.
The Not-So-Good:
• New Orleans over Dallas
• Detroit over Chicago
• Arizona over Houston
• St. Louis over Indianapolis
• NY Giants over Oakland
• Tampa over Miami
Not a whole lot to note here. There was some debate over the results of the Chicago-Detroit game but I still contend that Lions losses at this point are a positive for us because of their easy schedule. They could possibly be competition for the #1 seed based on that fairly smooth road ahead of them. Arizona is just on the fringe of playoff contention. The result in Tampa doesn’t matter much aside from the fact that I don’t think Schiano deserves to be an NFL coach still.
Note: this is not list of picks based on teams I believe will win, or necessarily want to win. Picks in Green are simply the teams for which a win helps the Seahawks a.) Make the playoffs and b.) attain a high playoff seed.
The Walter Jones Division (important games):
Detroit @ Pittsburg
GO STEELERS! (brb – going to go dump scalding hot bleach onto myself now)
San Francisco @ New Orleans
This one is a tough call, but the Saints have a much tougher “row to hoe” with games against Carolina (twice), the Rams on the road, and of course here in Seattle in a couple weeks. SF’s schedule is relatively easy. Given our new mantra of “Just win at home”, lets bury the ‘Niners and have them matter less.
New England @ Carolina
From a psyche standpoint there might be some benefits of Carolina winning; namely, momentum to take down the Saints. However we’re basing this on mostly logic.
The Ben Obomanu Division (games of moderate significance):
Arizona @ Jacksonville
Sort of a tough call here actually – because it would be HILLARIOUS if the 49ers got thumped from a playoff spot by the Cardinals. But we will just go with the logical pick anyways.
Baltimore @ Chicago
A sign of the injury situation in Chicago that this game isn’t in the more important tier.
Washington @ Philadelphia
This one’s tough – on one hand, I’d much rather face Dallas in the playoffs than Philadelphia; at the same time that .5% chance we talked about with a potential tie-breaker with the lions comes into play, and they’ve already beaten Washington. Personally I will risk it and hope for a Redskins Victory based upon the fact that Philly is probably the last NFC East team I’d want to play in the playoffs. I was giving the Cowboys that division until I saw how awful they were against the Saints. Just bad, bad….baaad football.
Green Bay @ NY Giants
Yep. There’s that game. Strategically speaking a Green Bay loss I suppose is best. . . although I would rather not have the Giants making a big surge by the time we play them. Another “pick your poison” type game. I will defer to the mantra, “win at home – nothing else matters”.
The Kelly Jennings Division (games that, like Jennings himself, don’t really matter.)
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay
No pick here. Just a note that the outcome of this game ‘matters’ only in the sense of tie-breakers at this point, with only the most insane person willing to do the work to find a clear-cut better choice. Although after playing it close against the Bucs and dominating the Falcons I suppose it would be better appearance-wise for the Bucs to win this game.
Vikings @ Seahawks
Seahawks:
Pass Offense: 24
Rush Offense: 2
Total Offense: 11
Scoring: 6
Pass Defense: 2
Rush Defense: 15
Total Defense: 3
Scoring: 3
Turnover Differential: +7
Vikings:
Pass Offense: 25
Rush Offense: 17
Total Offense: 28
Scoring: 13
Pass Defense: 29
Rush Defense: 17
Total Defense: 30
Scoring: 30
Turnover Differential: -4
Vegas Opening Spread:
Seattle -13.5
Too much respect for Adrian Peterson to think he won’t make some plays. We have shown the ability to give up some rushing yards lately. We seemed to remedy that against Atlanta, but the fact that they are dead last in the league in rushing certainly worked in our favor. I think for the Vikings this means a touchdown and several field goals in a game that the ‘Hawks keep a steady lead in most of the game. I don’t picture another debacle like the second quarter of the Tampa game to repeat itself, and I don’t see the 29th and 30th ranked pass/scoring defense keeping us out of the end zone. I wouldn’t say this will be an ‘easy’ win; Minnesota has put up a fight along the way to their shabby record. However I just see the ‘Hawks getting back to their game at home after close wins against Tampa Bay and Tennessee. The Vikings just don’t look to me like the team that will end our home win streak. After the win last week and the 49ers loss, the 12th man will be revitalized and ready to celebrate before the bye week. We should have several players back from injury – including Percy Harvin. I’m not ready to wager on if he will actually see playing time, but just the general vibe of knowing that he will be out there, possibly suited up, will be huge for the fans who’ve waited so long to see him as part of the team and not just an offseason add that has yet to join us. Now, if they announce the offense out of the tunnel and he’s part of that – the clink might literally erupt in a concussive blast of 9-dollar beers and garlic fries.
Even though some of the competition we’ve faced this season hasn’t turned out to be as difficult as it looked when the schedule first came out, it’s still been a tough road. 60% of our games have been on the road, 40% at 10 AM, and twice we’ve had to play prime time games in the home of the enemy. We’ve beaten the 49ers soundly. We’ve overcome injuries on the offensive line. Several games have come down to the wire for us only to prevail the majority of the time, minus one miss-step in Indy.
I don’t see this team playing a flat game after all that to put the period on the first part of the season as they head into their late bye week.
10-1.
