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Let the Hunt Begin …
Week 1: Seattle Seahawks vs. the Carolina Panthers …
At long last the Seattle Seahawks take flight on a season that they hope lands them in New York come February … and brings to this city the long sought after Lombardi Trophy. That dream came within an eyelash of becoming reality last year, as the Hawks stood a mere 31 seconds away from a date with the San Francisco 49ers for the NFC title. Seconds after Matt Bryant’s 49 yard field goal sailed through the uprights, Seahawks fans and players alike resolved that nothing short of a Super Bowl championship this season was going to wash that bitter taste out of their mouths. But the road to the Super Bowl will not be an easy one this year by any means. The football gods have “blessed” the Hawks with a whopping five 10 am East Coast starts … the first of which commences this Sunday.
Alright, enough of the “blah, blah, blah” … let’s get started by breaking down the Seahawks match-up against Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers this weekend …
Legion of Boom vs. Catch Scratch Fever …
Panthers Offense vs. Seahawks Defense …
Even the most casual of fan knows that when it comes to the Carolina Panthers, you’ve got to look to contain QB Cam Newton (6’5” 245 pounds.) Thanks Captain Obvious for that brilliant insight. No seriously, when it comes to quarterbacks, Cam Newton is as integral a part of that Panther Offense as RGIII is to Washington’s, Peyton Manning is to Denver’s, or any of the elites that you would wish to name. For a team that doesn’t have a ton of weapons, Newton’s numbers on the season last year were still fairly respectable overall …
[tdo=2]Cam Newton’s 2012 Statistics[/tdo]
Cam Newton not only was the team’s leading passer … he was also its leading rusher as well …
Newton rushed for 741 yards last season. His 5.8 yards/rushing attempt was #1 on the team. He also had the most rushing TD’s on the team (8) … and the most runs of 20 or more yards as well (9).
Of all the NFL teams out there, perhaps none runs more Zone Read Option than do the Carolina Panthers. With a tall, strong armed mobile QB who can run (4.58 seconds in the 40 – psst – Russell Wilson actually ran a tick faster) … you can see why the Panthers employ that approach.
Cam Newton has had to call his own number often for a reason – he doesn’t have many bullets in the gun. Outside of Newton, his playmakers have been fairly few – and it doesn’t look like that’s going to change this year.
Last season, the Carolina Panthers targeted wide receivers 490 times versus running the ball 462 times. So, their overall play calling broke down thusly …
51.47% of the time the Panthers passed
48.53% of the time the Panthers ran the ball
WR Steve Smith (5’9” 185 pounds) showed that he wasn’t long in the tooth, as the now 34 year old had 73 catches for 1,143 yards … 4 TD’s … and had 17 plays that went for 20 or more yards last season (tied for 9th in the NFL with Anquan Boldin and Julio Jones.) The Legion of Boom kept him caged up last year, holding him to just 4 catches for 40 yards in that game. I’d look for CB Richard Sherman (6’3” 195 pounds) and the rest of the Legion to employ the same kind of physical beat down that led to Smith eventually becoming so frustrated that he tried to pick up and throw Sherman to the ground.
Beyond Smith, the Panthers don’t truly have a #2 receiver in the pack.
TE Greg Olson (6’5” 250 pounds) was 2nd on the team in receptions last year with 69 catches and led the team in receiving TD’s (5). I’d look for him in those short to intermediate zones, as Olson had 11 catches for 20 or more yards last year. The Panthers will often line him up in the slot and with the issues that Seattle had towards the 2nd half of the year stopping teams from exploiting the middle of that zone, to me Olson could potentially be a bigger issue than Smith in this game. The Seahawks are going to need big games especially from FS Earl Thomas (5’10” 202 pounds) and SS Kam Chancellor (6’3” 232 pounds.)
WR Brandon LaFell (6’2” 210 pounds) had 44 catches … 4 receiving TD’s … and 13 receptions that went for 20 or more yards last year. LaFell had 3 catches for 44 yards including a 21 yard reception against the Seahawks last season, so he’s the other guy that really should deserve some attention on Sunday. Earl Thomas will undoubtedly need to be keeping an eye out in center field for #11.
One other player to keep an eye on come Sunday is WR Armanti Edwards (5’11” 190 pounds.) With Dominik Hixon (6’2” 205 pounds) listed as questionable with a hamstring issue, Edwards is someone who could receive some targets in this game. Edwards has got some wheels (he’s run the 40 in 4.39 seconds) and has been working at the #3 receiver behind Smith and LaFell.
Of particular note heading in to this game is the fact that CB Brandon Browner (6’4” 221 pounds) in all likelihood will not play in this contest. He was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday with a hamstring issue and didn’t practice at all either Thursday or Friday. His status for the game is in question. Seattle fans throughout the nation will be breaking out their lucky rabbit’s feet, hoping that CB Walter Thurmond (5’11” 190 pounds), who had a sensational training camp and preseason), can step in and not miss a beat. Thurmond has battled injuries throughout his pro career, but when he’s been in there has looked sensational – and displayed even better overall cover skills than Browner. CB’s Jeremy Lane (6’0” 190 pounds) and Byron Maxwell (6’1” 207 pounds) showed a lot of improvement in the Preseason over this time last year, so much so that they basically forced Antoine Winfield (who was thought to be a very key free agent addition) out of a job and in to retirement.
Turning our attention to the running game, the biggest change heading in to this season for the Panthers is that we shouldn’t see as much platooning, as RB Jonathan Stewart will start the season on the PUP List (meaning that he won’t be available until at least week 6). DeAngelo Williams (5’9” 215 pounds) will get the bulk of the carries – and he did a great job overall in averaging 4.3 yards from scrimmage and racking up 737 yards and 5 rushing TD’s.
Kenjon Barner (5’9” 190 pounds), the Panthers 6th Round pick out of Oregon, is a fast little scat back (4.35 in the 40) who could cause issues for the Seahawks if he plays on Sunday. Barner, however, has been sidelined with a sprained ankle and did not practice all week. On Friday the Panthers listed him as out for this game, so he won’t play.
One other significant injury of note heading in to this game is FB Mike Tolbert (5’9” 245 pounds.) Tolbert had been out with a hamstring injury. He was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday, but was a full participant on both Thursday and Friday. It looks like he’ll be ready to go come Sunday, but with hamstrings, one never knows. When it comes to goal line situations, Tolbert has been money throughout his career. He had 7 rushing TD’s last season, so that bears watching.
Shifting our gaze to the war in the trenches, the Panthers return the exact same starting line as they had heading in to their contest with the Seahawks last year. According to Football Outsiders, the Panthers Offensive Line ranked 21st in the NFL in terms of their Pass Protection last year … and 30th in run blocking. The Panthers allowed 36 Sacks on the season (just ahead of Seattle, who allowed 33) … but I contend those numbers are a bit deceptive in terms of this game. During that game with the Seahawks, C Ryan Kalil (who went to 3 straight Pro Bowls between 2009-2011) suffered a Lisfranc injury against the Seahawks and spent the remainder of the 2012 Season on IR. He’s back and fully healthy for this game … but starting LG Amini Silatolu (6’4” 315 pounds) has been a limited participant all week with a hamstring issue. His status is listed as questionable for this game.
For the Seahawks, the key to containing Cam Newton and this speedy offense is by being stout at the point of attack and maintaining assignment discipline – not getting sucked in by all of the misdirection that Newton and the Panthers like to employ. Aaron Sims over at Field Gulls has an excellent article with great GIF’s, showing both good and bad examples of this from last year’s Seahawks-Panthers game.
I would say that Emory Hunt is correct in his assertion that Seattle comes out in this game and gives the Panthers a lot of aggressive looks, loading up the box with an 8 man front and relying upon the strength of its secondary to shut down Smith and the vertical passing attack. That means dominating those gaps, clogging up running lanes, and applying pressure on Newton through timely blitzes.
Last year, Bruce Irvin (6’3” 248 pounds) and Chris Clemons (6’3” 254 pounds) collected 3 of Seattle’s 4 sacks on Cam Newton. To ask a Seattle Defense that produced only 36 Sacks last year (18th in the NFL) to generate that kind of pressure on the road is a tall order. And as most of us know, what’s going to make it even tougher is the fact that the Hawks are going to be without the services of its 2 best pass rushers heading in to this game, as Clemons still isn’t back from his knee injury and Irvin will begin serving his 4 game suspension for PED use. John Schneider and the Seahawks front office devoted a lot of energy this offseason to improving the pass rush and they will be relying heavily on those new acquisitions to stem the tide. DE Cliff Avril (6’3” 260 pounds) and DT Michael Bennett (6’4” 274 pounds) were key free agent additions, brought in specifically to help augment that pass rush and decimate those running lanes. Avril posted 9.5 sacks for the Lions last season … while Bennett 9.0 sacks and an impressive 10 Tackles for Loss for the Bucs. Avril had been considered questionable for this game with a hamstring issue, but was a full participant in practice both Thursday and Friday. Though it would appear that he should be ready to go, he’s still listed as doubtful for Sunday. DT’s Brandon Mebane (6’1” 311 pounds) and Tony McDaniel (6’7” 305 pounds) both had been a limited participants as well with groin issues earlier in the week. However, those guys were full participants on Thursday and Friday, so should be fine for this weekend.
Pete Carroll said this past week that if Avril wasn’t ready to go that they would look to O’Brien Schofield (6’3” 242 pounds) to help provide some of that rush from the LEO position. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in there … nor to see even UDFA out of Idaho Benson Mayowa (6’3” 252 pounds) [a training camp surprise] get some time there on Sunday as well. In terms of overall talent, Pete Carroll has said that this is the deepest group that he’s had since he’s been in Seattle … and that this particular Seahawks group reminds him of those USC teams (circa 2005) in terms of its overall depth. On Sunday, we’re probably going to find out just how deep this roster truly is.
Legion of Zoom vs. Catch Scratch Fever …
Seahawks Offense vs. Panthers Defense …
If you Seahawks fans will bear with me a bit, let me take a minute to talk about some aspects of the Hawks and their offense for those Panthers fans who might not be in the know and are reading this. So, I read a preview on a Panther site this week in which the author contended that QB Russell Wilson (5’11” 206 pounds) was merely a “game manager.” Nothing could be further from the truth (and shame on those NC State fans among you who ought to know better.)
During the first part of the season, Pete Carroll freely admitted that he was keeping things under wraps as far as the offense was concerned, as he didn’t want to overwhelm a rookie QB in Russell Wilson (whose head he figured was already spinning) with the complexities of a full NFL playbook. So, he dumbed things down a bit, simplifying the offense and not giving him the full reigns. That changed really following the Panther (and especially) the Patriot games. After Carroll removed the training wheels, the Seahawks offense really became to take off, so much so that by season’s end it was downright scary.
Through the Seahawks first 5 games (so including the Carolina Game), Russell Wilson’s QB Rating was 78.5833. (he completed 63.2% of his passes)
From Week 6 (the Patriots Game) on through the end of the season … Russell Wilson had a QB Rating of 111.5827. (he completed 64.55% of his passes)
So, it’s not at all hyperbole to say that the Seahawks are a vastly different offense now than the squad that faced this Panthers team in Week 5 last year.
Over their final 8 weeks of last season, the Seahawks offense averaged 34 points per game … and the team went 7-1 down the stretch.
The Seattle Offense could be called a veritable junk drawer. The basis of the offense is the West Coast Offense … but as last season progressed, fans saw the Zone Read Option some (they really only utilized it about 10% of the time last year) … the Pistol Formation (developed at Nevada and used by Colin Kaepernick there) … halfback passes, flea-flickers, and all manner of interesting formations. Unlike Mike Holmgren who ran the purest form of the West Coast Offense and focused more on out-executing people, it’s become abundantly clear that Pete Carroll and his staff will use/incorporate anything that they believe will give them a tactical advantage. He gets almost giddy when talking about these surprise plays and has said that he loves making opposing coordinators think. Additionally, Carroll and his staff are among the very best I’ve ever seen in:
1) Identifying a team’s weaknesses and coming up with an effective plan to exploit them.
2) Identifying what an opposing team is doing and in making in game adjustments to compensate.
By Carroll’s design, the Seahawk Offense is a RUN FIRST offense. The two bedrock foundations of a Carroll system are the running game and playing hard-nosed tough in-your-face defense. Seattle ran the ball more than any team in the NFL last season (536 times) simply put because Pete Carroll believes that’s what championship teams do.
RB Marshawn Lynch (5’11” 215 pounds) [and the way that he plays] has very much come to embody the identity of who the Seattle Seahawks are, as players are all inspired by the level of insanity by which he runs. Controlling the game clock and limiting the time of possession with Beast Mode, as always, will continue be the game plan on Sunday.
The Seahawks Offensive Line was one of the very best in game last year in terms of establishing and maintaining the run. According to Football Outsiders, the Seattle Seahawks Offensive Line …
allowed their runners to be stuffed either at or behind the line of scrimmage only 15% of the time (Best percentage in the league) …
ranked #2 in the league in terms of Second Level Yards (number of yards earned 5-10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage) gained …
were the 8th Best team on number of yards earned beyond 10 yards …
were successful 70% of the time in converting short yardage situations (3rd or 4th Down and 2 or less) – 2nd Best of any team in football.
So why shouldn’t that continue to be the plan against the Panthers as well? It will certainly be to an extent … but the Panthers Defensive Line is vastly improved from a year ago. Undaunted by other teams’ fears of a possible serious heart condition, the Carolina Panthers chose Star Lotulelei (the standout defensive tackle from Utah) with the 14th overall pick in this year’s draft. Lotulelei (6’2 315 pounds) was a dominant DT in college, racking up 42 tackles (11 of those for loss), 7 sacks, forced 4 fumbles, and deflected 5 passes last season for the Utes alone. The Panthers came back in the 2nd round and nabbed another potential impact DT – Purdue’s Kawann Short (6’3” 310 pounds) – a guy many on this board had tabbed as someone who would interest the Hawks. Short may get his chance to start this week, as Dwan Edwards (6’3” 305 pounds) has been hobbled with a thigh issue and didn’t practice either Thursday or Friday. Lotulelei and Short join a defensive front that already includes DE’s Greg Hardy (6’4” 290 pounds) [11 Sacks, 4 TFL] and Charles Johnson (6’2” 285 pounds) [12.5 Sacks, 4 PD]. LB’s Luke Kuechly (6’3” 235 pounds) [103 solo tackles, 11 TFL, 8 PD] and Thomas Davis (6’1” 235 pounds) [70 solo tackles, 10 TFL] make this group a particularly challenging one to run against at home.
I expect the Panthers to try to load the box and to bring pressure early and often in an attempt to bottle up Beast Mode and to try to apply heat to Russell Wilson. Greg Hardy admitted as much on Twitter this week …
And teams tried that strategy last year. In Week 6, New England stacked the box and made a real point of keying in on Lynch and stopping him. As we also know though, that game had a very positive effective for the offense as a whole, as it marked the real beginning of the rise of Russell Wilson. With Lynch under wraps for most of that game, Wilson put the offense on his back, completing 16 of 27 passes for 293 yards and 3 TD’s (including the dramatic game winner to Sidney Rice).
In the playoffs, the Redskins also loaded up the box, crowding the line of scrimmage in order to bring heat on Russell Wilson and to take away the running threat of Marshawn Lynch. That worked to some degree, as Wilson was sacked 5 times … but the offense as a whole got clicking midway through the 1st Quarter and never looked back. Lynch rumbled through the Redskins defense, finishing the day with 132 Yards Rushing on 20 Carries (a 6.6 Yards/Rush Avg) and a touchdown.
Statistically speaking, Russell Wilson had one of his worst days last year against the Panthers. Though he completed 19 of 25 passes (76% Comp Rate) for 221 yards … he was also picked off twice in that game. CB Captain Munnerlyn (5’8” 195 pounds) stepped in front of a route intended for TE Anthony McCoy and took it back 33 yards the other way to the house. The Panthers and their fans are certainly thinking they will see a repeat performance if they are able to apply pressure.
But as I noted above, this is a vastly different Seahawks Offense from the one that the Panthers faced back in Week 5 last season. Wilson is actually at his most dangerous when he is on the move, as he is an extremely accurate passer and innovator on the fly. Anyone who at all paid attention to the Bears game and to the playoffs knows that to be true. Danny Kelly over at Field Gulls noted some very interesting stats regarding Russell Wilson in a piece he wrote back in May …
Russell Wilson & the Signature NFL Throw
For a team that has a strong secondary, a better plan against Wilson might actually be to keep him in the pocket, telling the defensive lineman to stay home and shut down those running lanes, keep their hands up, and close off those passing windows. The problem for the Panthers; however, is that they don’t have that kind of secondary. As a group, the Carolina Panthers intercepted only 11 passes and they allowed teams to complete 66.8% of their passes last season – worst completion percentage allowed in the entire league. Their team total of 65 Passes Defensed ranked among the bottom 1/3 of NFL Teams. Those short to intermediate slant routes should be open for TE Zach Miller (6’5” 255 pounds.) Further muddying the water is the fact that SS Mike Mitchell (6’0” 210 pounds) was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday with a calf injury and didn’t practice at all either Thursday or Friday. His status for the game is listed as doubtful. Additionally, nickel CB James Dockery (6’1” 185 pounds) will miss this game as well due to a thumb issue.
Other teams know that conventional Pete Carroll loves to pound the ball down their throats … which is why (given what I’ve shared above) I believe the Seahawks may look to employ a little Shock and Awe to open the game. WR Stephen Williams (6’5” 208 pounds) surprised everyone during the Preseason, amassing 236 yards and 3 TD’s (all on long connections) – showing the world that he could be a legitimate deep threat (ala Cliff Branch). It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see the Seahawks come out with a bomb to either Williams or Sidney Rice (6’4” 202 pounds) down the sideline in an attempt to silence the crowd and to set that defense back on its heels. That said, I’d look for the Hawks (for the most part) to stay true to form in this game, using the pass to set up the run. Ball control and time of possession domination will undoubtedly be the formula, trying to keep Cam Newton and the Panthers off the field as much as possible … giving the Legion of Boom’s motors fresh well in to the 4th quarter.
Bold Prediction …
As far as scoring is concerned, this game could start out slowly, as the Panthers improved defensive line may make it tough to get Marshawn Lynch going. If the Seahawks maintain good gap discipline and are able to generate pressure on Cam Newton, the Legion of Boom should be able to shut down the Panthers vertical passing attack just like they did last year. I’d look for Carolina to try to test the middle of the Hawks’ zone, as the coaching staff knows that other teams had a lot of success going after the Seahawks nickel and dime corners. How Jeremy Lane and Byron Maxwell perform may ultimately decide this contest. Given the 10am start time, I can definitely envision Carolina having success against the Hawks early … but in the end I just don’t see their defense (especially that secondary) as having enough horses to be able to hang with Seattle’s offense forever. If Seattle comes out and is anywhere close to the team that they were at the tail end of last season … it could be a very long day for the Panthers and their fans.
Let’s call it:
Seahawks 24
Panthers 14
Week 1: Seattle Seahawks vs. the Carolina Panthers …
At long last the Seattle Seahawks take flight on a season that they hope lands them in New York come February … and brings to this city the long sought after Lombardi Trophy. That dream came within an eyelash of becoming reality last year, as the Hawks stood a mere 31 seconds away from a date with the San Francisco 49ers for the NFC title. Seconds after Matt Bryant’s 49 yard field goal sailed through the uprights, Seahawks fans and players alike resolved that nothing short of a Super Bowl championship this season was going to wash that bitter taste out of their mouths. But the road to the Super Bowl will not be an easy one this year by any means. The football gods have “blessed” the Hawks with a whopping five 10 am East Coast starts … the first of which commences this Sunday.
Alright, enough of the “blah, blah, blah” … let’s get started by breaking down the Seahawks match-up against Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers this weekend …
Legion of Boom vs. Catch Scratch Fever …
Panthers Offense vs. Seahawks Defense …
Even the most casual of fan knows that when it comes to the Carolina Panthers, you’ve got to look to contain QB Cam Newton (6’5” 245 pounds.) Thanks Captain Obvious for that brilliant insight. No seriously, when it comes to quarterbacks, Cam Newton is as integral a part of that Panther Offense as RGIII is to Washington’s, Peyton Manning is to Denver’s, or any of the elites that you would wish to name. For a team that doesn’t have a ton of weapons, Newton’s numbers on the season last year were still fairly respectable overall …
| Category | NFL Ranking |
|---|---|
| 280 Pass Comp | 22nd Most |
| 485 Pass Att | 19th |
| 57.7 Comp% | 26th |
| 3,869 Yards | 13th Most |
| 19 TD’s | tied 21st Most |
| 12 INT’s | tied 17th |
| 86.2 QB Rating | 15th Best |
| 54.1 Total QBR | 16th |
Cam Newton not only was the team’s leading passer … he was also its leading rusher as well …
Newton rushed for 741 yards last season. His 5.8 yards/rushing attempt was #1 on the team. He also had the most rushing TD’s on the team (8) … and the most runs of 20 or more yards as well (9).
Of all the NFL teams out there, perhaps none runs more Zone Read Option than do the Carolina Panthers. With a tall, strong armed mobile QB who can run (4.58 seconds in the 40 – psst – Russell Wilson actually ran a tick faster) … you can see why the Panthers employ that approach.
Cam Newton has had to call his own number often for a reason – he doesn’t have many bullets in the gun. Outside of Newton, his playmakers have been fairly few – and it doesn’t look like that’s going to change this year.
Last season, the Carolina Panthers targeted wide receivers 490 times versus running the ball 462 times. So, their overall play calling broke down thusly …
51.47% of the time the Panthers passed
48.53% of the time the Panthers ran the ball
WR Steve Smith (5’9” 185 pounds) showed that he wasn’t long in the tooth, as the now 34 year old had 73 catches for 1,143 yards … 4 TD’s … and had 17 plays that went for 20 or more yards last season (tied for 9th in the NFL with Anquan Boldin and Julio Jones.) The Legion of Boom kept him caged up last year, holding him to just 4 catches for 40 yards in that game. I’d look for CB Richard Sherman (6’3” 195 pounds) and the rest of the Legion to employ the same kind of physical beat down that led to Smith eventually becoming so frustrated that he tried to pick up and throw Sherman to the ground.
Beyond Smith, the Panthers don’t truly have a #2 receiver in the pack.
TE Greg Olson (6’5” 250 pounds) was 2nd on the team in receptions last year with 69 catches and led the team in receiving TD’s (5). I’d look for him in those short to intermediate zones, as Olson had 11 catches for 20 or more yards last year. The Panthers will often line him up in the slot and with the issues that Seattle had towards the 2nd half of the year stopping teams from exploiting the middle of that zone, to me Olson could potentially be a bigger issue than Smith in this game. The Seahawks are going to need big games especially from FS Earl Thomas (5’10” 202 pounds) and SS Kam Chancellor (6’3” 232 pounds.)
WR Brandon LaFell (6’2” 210 pounds) had 44 catches … 4 receiving TD’s … and 13 receptions that went for 20 or more yards last year. LaFell had 3 catches for 44 yards including a 21 yard reception against the Seahawks last season, so he’s the other guy that really should deserve some attention on Sunday. Earl Thomas will undoubtedly need to be keeping an eye out in center field for #11.
One other player to keep an eye on come Sunday is WR Armanti Edwards (5’11” 190 pounds.) With Dominik Hixon (6’2” 205 pounds) listed as questionable with a hamstring issue, Edwards is someone who could receive some targets in this game. Edwards has got some wheels (he’s run the 40 in 4.39 seconds) and has been working at the #3 receiver behind Smith and LaFell.
Of particular note heading in to this game is the fact that CB Brandon Browner (6’4” 221 pounds) in all likelihood will not play in this contest. He was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday with a hamstring issue and didn’t practice at all either Thursday or Friday. His status for the game is in question. Seattle fans throughout the nation will be breaking out their lucky rabbit’s feet, hoping that CB Walter Thurmond (5’11” 190 pounds), who had a sensational training camp and preseason), can step in and not miss a beat. Thurmond has battled injuries throughout his pro career, but when he’s been in there has looked sensational – and displayed even better overall cover skills than Browner. CB’s Jeremy Lane (6’0” 190 pounds) and Byron Maxwell (6’1” 207 pounds) showed a lot of improvement in the Preseason over this time last year, so much so that they basically forced Antoine Winfield (who was thought to be a very key free agent addition) out of a job and in to retirement.
Turning our attention to the running game, the biggest change heading in to this season for the Panthers is that we shouldn’t see as much platooning, as RB Jonathan Stewart will start the season on the PUP List (meaning that he won’t be available until at least week 6). DeAngelo Williams (5’9” 215 pounds) will get the bulk of the carries – and he did a great job overall in averaging 4.3 yards from scrimmage and racking up 737 yards and 5 rushing TD’s.
Kenjon Barner (5’9” 190 pounds), the Panthers 6th Round pick out of Oregon, is a fast little scat back (4.35 in the 40) who could cause issues for the Seahawks if he plays on Sunday. Barner, however, has been sidelined with a sprained ankle and did not practice all week. On Friday the Panthers listed him as out for this game, so he won’t play.
One other significant injury of note heading in to this game is FB Mike Tolbert (5’9” 245 pounds.) Tolbert had been out with a hamstring injury. He was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday, but was a full participant on both Thursday and Friday. It looks like he’ll be ready to go come Sunday, but with hamstrings, one never knows. When it comes to goal line situations, Tolbert has been money throughout his career. He had 7 rushing TD’s last season, so that bears watching.
Shifting our gaze to the war in the trenches, the Panthers return the exact same starting line as they had heading in to their contest with the Seahawks last year. According to Football Outsiders, the Panthers Offensive Line ranked 21st in the NFL in terms of their Pass Protection last year … and 30th in run blocking. The Panthers allowed 36 Sacks on the season (just ahead of Seattle, who allowed 33) … but I contend those numbers are a bit deceptive in terms of this game. During that game with the Seahawks, C Ryan Kalil (who went to 3 straight Pro Bowls between 2009-2011) suffered a Lisfranc injury against the Seahawks and spent the remainder of the 2012 Season on IR. He’s back and fully healthy for this game … but starting LG Amini Silatolu (6’4” 315 pounds) has been a limited participant all week with a hamstring issue. His status is listed as questionable for this game.
For the Seahawks, the key to containing Cam Newton and this speedy offense is by being stout at the point of attack and maintaining assignment discipline – not getting sucked in by all of the misdirection that Newton and the Panthers like to employ. Aaron Sims over at Field Gulls has an excellent article with great GIF’s, showing both good and bad examples of this from last year’s Seahawks-Panthers game.
I would say that Emory Hunt is correct in his assertion that Seattle comes out in this game and gives the Panthers a lot of aggressive looks, loading up the box with an 8 man front and relying upon the strength of its secondary to shut down Smith and the vertical passing attack. That means dominating those gaps, clogging up running lanes, and applying pressure on Newton through timely blitzes.
Last year, Bruce Irvin (6’3” 248 pounds) and Chris Clemons (6’3” 254 pounds) collected 3 of Seattle’s 4 sacks on Cam Newton. To ask a Seattle Defense that produced only 36 Sacks last year (18th in the NFL) to generate that kind of pressure on the road is a tall order. And as most of us know, what’s going to make it even tougher is the fact that the Hawks are going to be without the services of its 2 best pass rushers heading in to this game, as Clemons still isn’t back from his knee injury and Irvin will begin serving his 4 game suspension for PED use. John Schneider and the Seahawks front office devoted a lot of energy this offseason to improving the pass rush and they will be relying heavily on those new acquisitions to stem the tide. DE Cliff Avril (6’3” 260 pounds) and DT Michael Bennett (6’4” 274 pounds) were key free agent additions, brought in specifically to help augment that pass rush and decimate those running lanes. Avril posted 9.5 sacks for the Lions last season … while Bennett 9.0 sacks and an impressive 10 Tackles for Loss for the Bucs. Avril had been considered questionable for this game with a hamstring issue, but was a full participant in practice both Thursday and Friday. Though it would appear that he should be ready to go, he’s still listed as doubtful for Sunday. DT’s Brandon Mebane (6’1” 311 pounds) and Tony McDaniel (6’7” 305 pounds) both had been a limited participants as well with groin issues earlier in the week. However, those guys were full participants on Thursday and Friday, so should be fine for this weekend.
Pete Carroll said this past week that if Avril wasn’t ready to go that they would look to O’Brien Schofield (6’3” 242 pounds) to help provide some of that rush from the LEO position. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in there … nor to see even UDFA out of Idaho Benson Mayowa (6’3” 252 pounds) [a training camp surprise] get some time there on Sunday as well. In terms of overall talent, Pete Carroll has said that this is the deepest group that he’s had since he’s been in Seattle … and that this particular Seahawks group reminds him of those USC teams (circa 2005) in terms of its overall depth. On Sunday, we’re probably going to find out just how deep this roster truly is.
Legion of Zoom vs. Catch Scratch Fever …
Seahawks Offense vs. Panthers Defense …
If you Seahawks fans will bear with me a bit, let me take a minute to talk about some aspects of the Hawks and their offense for those Panthers fans who might not be in the know and are reading this. So, I read a preview on a Panther site this week in which the author contended that QB Russell Wilson (5’11” 206 pounds) was merely a “game manager.” Nothing could be further from the truth (and shame on those NC State fans among you who ought to know better.)
During the first part of the season, Pete Carroll freely admitted that he was keeping things under wraps as far as the offense was concerned, as he didn’t want to overwhelm a rookie QB in Russell Wilson (whose head he figured was already spinning) with the complexities of a full NFL playbook. So, he dumbed things down a bit, simplifying the offense and not giving him the full reigns. That changed really following the Panther (and especially) the Patriot games. After Carroll removed the training wheels, the Seahawks offense really became to take off, so much so that by season’s end it was downright scary.
Through the Seahawks first 5 games (so including the Carolina Game), Russell Wilson’s QB Rating was 78.5833. (he completed 63.2% of his passes)
From Week 6 (the Patriots Game) on through the end of the season … Russell Wilson had a QB Rating of 111.5827. (he completed 64.55% of his passes)
So, it’s not at all hyperbole to say that the Seahawks are a vastly different offense now than the squad that faced this Panthers team in Week 5 last year.
Over their final 8 weeks of last season, the Seahawks offense averaged 34 points per game … and the team went 7-1 down the stretch.
The Seattle Offense could be called a veritable junk drawer. The basis of the offense is the West Coast Offense … but as last season progressed, fans saw the Zone Read Option some (they really only utilized it about 10% of the time last year) … the Pistol Formation (developed at Nevada and used by Colin Kaepernick there) … halfback passes, flea-flickers, and all manner of interesting formations. Unlike Mike Holmgren who ran the purest form of the West Coast Offense and focused more on out-executing people, it’s become abundantly clear that Pete Carroll and his staff will use/incorporate anything that they believe will give them a tactical advantage. He gets almost giddy when talking about these surprise plays and has said that he loves making opposing coordinators think. Additionally, Carroll and his staff are among the very best I’ve ever seen in:
1) Identifying a team’s weaknesses and coming up with an effective plan to exploit them.
2) Identifying what an opposing team is doing and in making in game adjustments to compensate.
By Carroll’s design, the Seahawk Offense is a RUN FIRST offense. The two bedrock foundations of a Carroll system are the running game and playing hard-nosed tough in-your-face defense. Seattle ran the ball more than any team in the NFL last season (536 times) simply put because Pete Carroll believes that’s what championship teams do.
RB Marshawn Lynch (5’11” 215 pounds) [and the way that he plays] has very much come to embody the identity of who the Seattle Seahawks are, as players are all inspired by the level of insanity by which he runs. Controlling the game clock and limiting the time of possession with Beast Mode, as always, will continue be the game plan on Sunday.
The Seahawks Offensive Line was one of the very best in game last year in terms of establishing and maintaining the run. According to Football Outsiders, the Seattle Seahawks Offensive Line …
allowed their runners to be stuffed either at or behind the line of scrimmage only 15% of the time (Best percentage in the league) …
ranked #2 in the league in terms of Second Level Yards (number of yards earned 5-10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage) gained …
were the 8th Best team on number of yards earned beyond 10 yards …
were successful 70% of the time in converting short yardage situations (3rd or 4th Down and 2 or less) – 2nd Best of any team in football.
So why shouldn’t that continue to be the plan against the Panthers as well? It will certainly be to an extent … but the Panthers Defensive Line is vastly improved from a year ago. Undaunted by other teams’ fears of a possible serious heart condition, the Carolina Panthers chose Star Lotulelei (the standout defensive tackle from Utah) with the 14th overall pick in this year’s draft. Lotulelei (6’2 315 pounds) was a dominant DT in college, racking up 42 tackles (11 of those for loss), 7 sacks, forced 4 fumbles, and deflected 5 passes last season for the Utes alone. The Panthers came back in the 2nd round and nabbed another potential impact DT – Purdue’s Kawann Short (6’3” 310 pounds) – a guy many on this board had tabbed as someone who would interest the Hawks. Short may get his chance to start this week, as Dwan Edwards (6’3” 305 pounds) has been hobbled with a thigh issue and didn’t practice either Thursday or Friday. Lotulelei and Short join a defensive front that already includes DE’s Greg Hardy (6’4” 290 pounds) [11 Sacks, 4 TFL] and Charles Johnson (6’2” 285 pounds) [12.5 Sacks, 4 PD]. LB’s Luke Kuechly (6’3” 235 pounds) [103 solo tackles, 11 TFL, 8 PD] and Thomas Davis (6’1” 235 pounds) [70 solo tackles, 10 TFL] make this group a particularly challenging one to run against at home.
I expect the Panthers to try to load the box and to bring pressure early and often in an attempt to bottle up Beast Mode and to try to apply heat to Russell Wilson. Greg Hardy admitted as much on Twitter this week …
And teams tried that strategy last year. In Week 6, New England stacked the box and made a real point of keying in on Lynch and stopping him. As we also know though, that game had a very positive effective for the offense as a whole, as it marked the real beginning of the rise of Russell Wilson. With Lynch under wraps for most of that game, Wilson put the offense on his back, completing 16 of 27 passes for 293 yards and 3 TD’s (including the dramatic game winner to Sidney Rice).
In the playoffs, the Redskins also loaded up the box, crowding the line of scrimmage in order to bring heat on Russell Wilson and to take away the running threat of Marshawn Lynch. That worked to some degree, as Wilson was sacked 5 times … but the offense as a whole got clicking midway through the 1st Quarter and never looked back. Lynch rumbled through the Redskins defense, finishing the day with 132 Yards Rushing on 20 Carries (a 6.6 Yards/Rush Avg) and a touchdown.
Statistically speaking, Russell Wilson had one of his worst days last year against the Panthers. Though he completed 19 of 25 passes (76% Comp Rate) for 221 yards … he was also picked off twice in that game. CB Captain Munnerlyn (5’8” 195 pounds) stepped in front of a route intended for TE Anthony McCoy and took it back 33 yards the other way to the house. The Panthers and their fans are certainly thinking they will see a repeat performance if they are able to apply pressure.
But as I noted above, this is a vastly different Seahawks Offense from the one that the Panthers faced back in Week 5 last season. Wilson is actually at his most dangerous when he is on the move, as he is an extremely accurate passer and innovator on the fly. Anyone who at all paid attention to the Bears game and to the playoffs knows that to be true. Danny Kelly over at Field Gulls noted some very interesting stats regarding Russell Wilson in a piece he wrote back in May …
Source:
Russell Wilson & the Signature NFL Throw
For a team that has a strong secondary, a better plan against Wilson might actually be to keep him in the pocket, telling the defensive lineman to stay home and shut down those running lanes, keep their hands up, and close off those passing windows. The problem for the Panthers; however, is that they don’t have that kind of secondary. As a group, the Carolina Panthers intercepted only 11 passes and they allowed teams to complete 66.8% of their passes last season – worst completion percentage allowed in the entire league. Their team total of 65 Passes Defensed ranked among the bottom 1/3 of NFL Teams. Those short to intermediate slant routes should be open for TE Zach Miller (6’5” 255 pounds.) Further muddying the water is the fact that SS Mike Mitchell (6’0” 210 pounds) was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday with a calf injury and didn’t practice at all either Thursday or Friday. His status for the game is listed as doubtful. Additionally, nickel CB James Dockery (6’1” 185 pounds) will miss this game as well due to a thumb issue.
Other teams know that conventional Pete Carroll loves to pound the ball down their throats … which is why (given what I’ve shared above) I believe the Seahawks may look to employ a little Shock and Awe to open the game. WR Stephen Williams (6’5” 208 pounds) surprised everyone during the Preseason, amassing 236 yards and 3 TD’s (all on long connections) – showing the world that he could be a legitimate deep threat (ala Cliff Branch). It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see the Seahawks come out with a bomb to either Williams or Sidney Rice (6’4” 202 pounds) down the sideline in an attempt to silence the crowd and to set that defense back on its heels. That said, I’d look for the Hawks (for the most part) to stay true to form in this game, using the pass to set up the run. Ball control and time of possession domination will undoubtedly be the formula, trying to keep Cam Newton and the Panthers off the field as much as possible … giving the Legion of Boom’s motors fresh well in to the 4th quarter.
Bold Prediction …
As far as scoring is concerned, this game could start out slowly, as the Panthers improved defensive line may make it tough to get Marshawn Lynch going. If the Seahawks maintain good gap discipline and are able to generate pressure on Cam Newton, the Legion of Boom should be able to shut down the Panthers vertical passing attack just like they did last year. I’d look for Carolina to try to test the middle of the Hawks’ zone, as the coaching staff knows that other teams had a lot of success going after the Seahawks nickel and dime corners. How Jeremy Lane and Byron Maxwell perform may ultimately decide this contest. Given the 10am start time, I can definitely envision Carolina having success against the Hawks early … but in the end I just don’t see their defense (especially that secondary) as having enough horses to be able to hang with Seattle’s offense forever. If Seattle comes out and is anywhere close to the team that they were at the tail end of last season … it could be a very long day for the Panthers and their fans.
Let’s call it:
Seahawks 24
Panthers 14
