Thoughts on the Seahawks first round options part I

[kearly]

Sometimes I feel like posting something draft related, but don't want to put in the insane hours to make it "publisher worthy" at SDB. That's why I really like posting stuff here in the draft forum sometimes. Today, I just wanted to share some very quick early thoughts on some big names in the 2013 draft. I figured I'd do this a few players at a time, and maybe down the road when I can do full scouting reports I'll publish something on SDB in greater detail. This post is more about hashing out some early thoughts and impressions.

Today Rob had a nice post that covered 50 players to watch for. Here are some of my thoughts on a few of those players (I'm going to avoid players I've already talked about: Ogletree, Jordan, etc):

Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M): Doesn't strike me as a future 1st round pick, certainly not for Seattle. His field speed and short area quickness are college average. He's a guy that relies more on poor blocking than playmaking to get sacks. Closest comparison for me would probably be Everson Griffen- who was initially a 1st round prospect but fell into the 4th round. Griffen has been a solid pro, but his fall out of the 1st round does appear justified. The 1st round should be the homerun round, and I don't see homerun potential when I watch Moore.

Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri): This is another guy that doesn't wow me much. He can shed a block, but rarely does it quickly. His field speed is nothing eye-popping. His snap recognition and first step are average at best, which is huge in my book for a DT. Looks like a non-1st round pick to me. Like Moore, the "wow" factor just isn't there, which is saying something because he does appear to be giving effort.

Matt Elam (S, Florida): Matt Elam would be perfect for Seattle. Just one problem. He's 5'10" yet plays extremely physical like a rookie Kam Chancellor. If Seattle is willing to overlook height, Elam could be a good fit for a nickle safety- he's actually very similar to Jeron Johnson who holds the job currently. One reason I hesitate on Elam though, he looks like a future injury magnet the way he throws his relatively small body into hits. Jeron Johnson has been no stranger to injuries and he's not as fast or as reckless as Elam is. I'd pass on Elam in rounds 1-2, mainly because Seattle has shown they can get results with later picks. He's still a player worth keeping an eye on if he falls far in the draft though.

Zach Ertz: Finally, a player with some "wow" factor. Ertz is a strong, tenacious blocker. He's got surprisingly good speed firing off into his routes, and he has good size (6'6" 258 lbs.) and soft hands. Reminds me a lot of Zach Miller. I like Ertz as an NFL prospect more than I liked Fleener last year. Miller's contract situation could potentially push Seattle more in Ertz's direction.

Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State): This is a guy worth keeping an eye on. Werner is a rare breed- a white DE speed rusher. I'd compare him to Shea McClellin but honestly I think Werner's field speed is even faster than McClellin's was. He's more Bruce Irvin than Shea McClellin- right down to the seeming cluelessness in run defense. Remember that (per JS on Sirius radio) McClellin was rated very highly on JS's board, almost as high as Irvin. And of course, Irvin was near the very top of JS's board and was the eventual 1st round pick. Unlike Irvin though, I think Werner has the physical potential to become a solid run defender and a justifyable 3 down player. Whereas Irvin did not have the build of a run defender, Werner is bulkier and stronger, he just lacks good two gap technique and needs to keep his head up. He'd be an excellent candidate to replace Clemons and as far as I'm concerned it's never too early to start looking, especially in a draft where the team is making luxury picks early.

Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers): Against UCONN he caught a routine pass over the middle and outran the defense for a long TD like he was playing a high school team. I don't like his seeming apathy about fighting for the ball- he's pretty much the exact opposite of Doug Baldwin. Sometimes he'll drop a catchable ball just from not trying hard enough. He's not a natural born competitor, and that's a big consideration for Carroll. I guess what's exciting about Coleman though is that he's not a raw player yet he still has a lot of room for improvement if he's paired with quality coaching. If motivated and well coached, he could be a nice weapon in Seattle's offense. There are a lot of 1st round options I'd draft before Coleman, but I think he makes sense and should be a player to keep an eye on, especially if Patterson opts to go back to school.

 

[JSeahawks]

I like the idea of a 1st round tight end, but I want a guy with more athletic ability. More of a Jimmy Graham type in New Orleans, rather then a Zach Miller type. I'm not sure that player is in this draft though (at least not at a first round level).

Out of that list I think my first choice would be Werner. I havnt watched much Florida State this year but I watched them several times last season and he always looked pretty dominant.

 

[theENGLISHseahawk]

More of a Jimmy Graham type in New Orleans, rather then a Zach Miller type.

Check out Gavin Escobar at San Diego State. Junior tight end, might declare.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

Gavin Escobar feels like a likely target for PC. Purer pass-catching tight end (the Kellen Winslow/Evan Moore signings tell me that PC is looking for such a guy), somewhat under-the-radar (though only until Ertz, Eifert and Toilolo are gone), cheap enough to keep the team comfortable with Miller, and he's tall. I'd guess that he has at least a 20% chance of being our second-round pick. Does he have a chip on his shoulder?

 

[kearly]

I like the idea of a 1st round tight end, but I want a guy with more athletic ability. More of a Jimmy Graham type in New Orleans, rather then a Zach Miller type. I'm not sure that player is in this draft though (at least not at a first round level).

I see Ertz as being a potential solution to the Zach Miller contract problem. If you are going to risk losing Miller this offseason over money, it's best to replace him with a similar brand of player. I do agree though that if the team views Miller as a long haul player that's worth the ridiculous money they will be paying him, then it makes sense to go for more of a pure H-back type. That said, Ertz is tied with ASJ right now for TE receptions in college football. He's no slouch as a receiver, so long as you don't mind that production being less than ultra dynamic.

 

[pehawk]

Isn't it way easier to find a TE that Millers equal on blocking? IIRC, Holmgrens Hawks always found low cost, no draft pick quality blockers.

If so, then I'm for replacing Miller if you invest heavily in a dynamic receiving TE. Basically replace Miller with two players.

If you drop Miller, only. Because, he's both.

 

[kearly]

It's nice having a guy that can do both in our offense. I don't think you could replace Miller with a platoon and not see a big drop in production from TE- the same way you lose something by platooning Red/Irvin. When Red is out there you aren't getting pass rush, when Irvin is out there you aren't getting run stoppage. I guess Pete's okay with it, probably because he has such a raging clue for run defense.

The other consideration is that a platoon at TE would telegraph the play a little bit. I think that's why Pete is really into do everything TEs, because when he's not running the ball, he's selling play action or generally trying to deceive the defense.

I suspect a player of Miller's profile is pretty important to Pete. Otherwise, he wouldn't have given Miller one of the largest TE contracts in the NFL.

 

[pehawk]

Agree, Kip. I think Miller stays because at least for a year, I don't see him being replaced by 1 player.

 

[kearly]

I agree. If Miller does stay, we'll probably see the team go in the H-back direction.

That said though, Seattle proved they are willing to overlook need if they really like a player. Middle linebacker was not Seattle's biggest need by a long shot, but Luke Kuechly topped their board last year. Safety was FAR from a need and Mark Barron was up at the top too. If they like Ertz as much as I do (which is a lot), then I could see them saying "we gotta get this guy" and taking him in the first round, even if they want to keep Miller.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Gavin Escobar feels like a likely target for PC. Purer pass-catching tight end (the Kellen Winslow/Evan Moore signings tell me that PC is looking for such a guy), somewhat under-the-radar (though only until Ertz, Eifert and Toilolo are gone), cheap enough to keep the team comfortable with Miller, and he's tall. I'd guess that he has at least a 20% chance of being our second-round pick. Does he have a chip on his shoulder?

That would be awesome....plus imagine the nickname possibilities. :0190l:

 

[theENGLISHseahawk]

I'm not convinced Kuechly and Barron were ever realistically considered. Might have had them rated as the best defensive prospects available other than Irvin, but doesn't mean they would've been picked ahead of Bruce. Team made pass rush a priority. Carroll goes back with Irvin and when he starts using terms like 'ideal LEO' makes me think he was always, always the pick from very early on in the process.

 

[hawksfan515]

I'm not convinced Kuechly and Barron were ever realistically considered. Might have had them rated as the best defensive prospects available other than Irvin, but doesn't mean they would've been picked ahead of Bruce. Team made pass rush a priority. Carroll goes back with Irvin and when he starts using terms like 'ideal LEO' makes me think he was always, always the pick from very early on in the process.

But maybe this year need is less of an issue? Just think, we don't have any giant, glaring needs like last year.

On defense, OLB (manned by Hill). Maybe a 3 down DT (Branch/Jones rotating, maybe Jones becomes a full time player?). That's all for defense. If you really like a CB, maybe replace Browner? He's already good, but I'm not gonna say no to the possibility of two shutdown CB's. Can never have enough good CB's. Same with pass rush, I will not say no to Jarvis Jones if he falls.

On offense, RG and RT (although Breno has promise, just needs some technical improvement). Maybe long term FB (Robinson probably has another year or so left). Maybe WR (although I am quite satisfied with Tate, Rice, and Baldwin).

I say we get some pass rush and nab Alec Ogletree, who can man the OLB spot and offer more speed, coverage, and pass rush from there. More pass rush the better.

 

[kearly]

I'm not convinced Kuechly and Barron were ever realistically considered. Might have had them rated as the best defensive prospects available other than Irvin, but doesn't mean they would've been picked ahead of Bruce. Team made pass rush a priority. Carroll goes back with Irvin and when he starts using terms like 'ideal LEO' makes me think he was always, always the pick from very early on in the process.

I don't see why not, although we really don't know enough at this point. It's worth noting that Schneider put Kuechly and Barron on the same tier as Irvin. If Irvin is gone and it's a choice between Coples/Mclellin vs Barron/Kuechly, it seems reasonable to think they'd push pass rush down a round. If they had, they could have grabbed Chris Clemons clone Vinny Curry in round two. And in a worst case scenario, they could have called New York after the draft asking about Umenyiora who was being shopped at the time.

I know that Seattle's record in the draft so far definitely indicates a team that drafts for need in round 1, but the whole idea of pigeonholing themselves seems very much at odds with the PC/JS philosophy. For example, JS said that when he first came to Seattle he had assumed that his first pick in his first draft would be a QB. But when that draft came, his only options were Jimmy Clausen and Tim Tebow. Safety and Tackle were needs, but the need at QB was the greatest by far. Yet instead of drafting for need by taking Clausen (which would have been fully justifiable at #6 or #14 based on his pre-draft projection), he was willing to pass, and he did it again in 2011, even though it meant a great deal of pain for the franchise over the next two seasons.

I also think that Irvin was not a guy they had their eyes set on in round 1 until the last few weeks before the draft. I'm sure they loved him, but they probably viewed him as a target in round 2- the same way they viewed Wilson as a target in rounds 4-6. But then as the draft neared and their GM intel improved, they realized that Irvin had no chance of making the 2nd round, and Wilson had no chance of making the fourth- and JS said himself that those were the two guys they felt they had to walk out of the draft with one way or another. And that's how it came to be. Irvin: 1st round pick. Wilson: 3rd round pick.

I don't think it was every really a case of pass rusher being an absolute first round lock. I think it had more to do with them really liking a couple of pass rushers with 1st round grades and their top guy was available so they took him. Pass rush was the "top priority" but so was Matt Hasselbeck once upon a time. This FO is very flexible on how it approaches it's offseason decisions.

 

[Jville]

It's nice having a guy that can do both in our offense. I don't think you could replace Miller with a platoon and not see a big drop in production from TE- the same way you lose something by platooning Red/Irvin. When Red is out there you aren't getting pass rush, when Irvin is out there you aren't getting run stoppage. I guess Pete's okay with it, probably because he has such a raging clue for run defense.

The other consideration is that a platoon at TE would telegraph the play a little bit. I think that's why Pete is really into do everything TEs, because when he's not running the ball, he's selling play action or generally trying to deceive the defense.

I suspect a player of Miller's profile is pretty important to Pete. Otherwise, he wouldn't have given Miller one of the largest TE contracts in the NFL.

I offer these perspectives.

1. I concure that Zack Miller provides all of what Tom Cable wants in a tight end for his system. Alex Gibbs on the other hand prefered lighter and more mobile linemen. So ...... a joker tight end like Shannon Sharpe was an excellent fit for Gibbs system in Denver.

2. Also, just as Gibbs also keep blockers around to fill a need for an inline tight end, so to could Seattle eventually find a joker tight end or hybrid receiver that can get by with the chip block to provide an additional dimension.

3. Final thought. Fans are drawn to joker tight ends because of highlight blips and fantasy numbers. So movement tight ends tend to be highly appreciated and even overrated in some cases. In comparison, all around - do it all - tight ends are often overlooked and underated by a majority of fans.

 

[kearly]

Good points Jville.

 

[SundayNiteBlackout]

It's too bad Austin Sefarian-Jenkins isn't draft eligible. Oh man I'd love to see RW to ASJ TD's rain down every week.

 

[Missing_Clink]

Even if they keep Miller, another TE makes a lot of sense. It's not like Evan Moore has set the world on fire. Two TE sets with Miller and Ertz would be fun

 

[jlwaters1]

I like both of those TE options. I'd love to see us use our first 2 picks on a WR & TE. Add some more firepower to the offense.

THen supplement the defense in rounds 3-5.