The real reason Matt Flynn's trade value will probably suck

[kearly]

The NFL is a copycat league, and if there is one thing that defined the 2012 season, it was the emergence of the mobile QB and the validation of the read option in the NFL. While I think most NFL GMs are probably smart enough to know that QBs like Russell Wilson are very rare, QBs like Colin Kaepernick are not. Finding QBs with tools but not skills isn't hard to do, and SF is proving that such a player can lead a potent NFL offense, even without top shelf WRs.

I see a lot of owners/GMs watching that at home and thinking "why the hell aren't we doing that?" I expect a pretty huge shift in that direction starting immediately this offseason, and though EJ Manuel might have mid round draft grades, will it shock anyone when a team trades up in round 2 to reach for him extra hard? It won't surprise me. This whole situation pretty much sucks the wind out of Matt Flynn's sails. There might be some teams that like Flynn as a backup, which explains the "wait til he's released" logic. Flynn has his fans, just none big enough to pay him starter money or hand him a starting job.

 

[Seahawk Sailor]

Good point - and one valid enough to worry me a bit about getting value from him if we were willing to trade him. Playing devil's advocate here, but many also have seen fads like the Wildcat go all buck nutty for a season only to be relegated to irrelevance the next year. That means there will be a lot of those owners/GMs watching at home going "Imma give it a year before I buy it's the real deal."

And that means his stock goes up.

 

[bestfightstory]

Is there a reason this gem wasn't added to the thread entitled 'Matt Flynn expected to be cut'?



Of course there is!!!!!!


It's a kearly thought!!!!!

 

[Winterfell]

I'm curious as to what your reasons are for Russell Wilson being a rare QB while Colin Kaepernick is not? I personally see both QBs as having the tools and the skills.

I personally think the demand for the traditional, big and tall, strong-armed pocket QB won't go down because of the emergence of mobile QBs. Just looking at the Super Bowl, on the other side is Joe Flacco (which is as traditional of a pocket passer as you can get) and he also played phenomenally to lead the Ravens through the playoffs to the Super Bowl.

 

[Mtjhoyas]

I'm curious as to what your reasons are for Russell Wilson being a rare QB while Colin Kaepernick is not? I personally see both QBs as having the tools and the skills.

I personally think the demand for the traditional, big and tall, strong-armed pocket QB won't go down because of the emergence of mobile QBs. Just looking at the Super Bowl, on the other side is Joe Flacco (which is as traditional of a pocket passer as you can get) and he also played phenomenally to lead the Ravens through the playoffs to the Super Bowl.

Not to speak for Kearly, but my honest opinion of Kaepernick vs RW is that one has ungodly tools and a HC who knows how to take full advantage of those tools without making him experience the true rigors of playing QB (ie consistent reads/progressions). RW, on the otherhand IMO, along with great tools, is more adept at making reads/progressions.

I will probably get flamed for this, but Harbaugh has made life so ridiculously easy for his QBs, dating back to his San Diego days with Josh Johnson. Think about it, name one Harbaugh QB that hasn't been really efficient? Why is this?

As much as I hate the man, he is brilliant with play design/call. There's a reason he has significant designed movement pre-snap. It basically makes the defense show their entire hand of what they are doing. A simple check optimizes the play call. Furthermore, I have paid very close attention to Kaepernick, and during the ATL game, I can honestly say I never saw him move off of a first read the entire game. Even slow developing plays (like the big V Davis catch), he was simply eyeing him the whole way, and the play design made the crossing routes rub together, allowing Davis unnatural separation on the play.

I really don't want to discredit Kaepernick as he is a fantastic physical talent (and by all means a smart kid), but I've noticed more often than not, if the first read breaks down, he's a totally different player. And like I said earlier, name a Harbaugh QB who has struggled with efficiency?

 

[Erebus]

Three of the four teams that played last weekend had pocket passer QBs. Just because a few teams are having success with mobile QBs doesn't mean GMs are stupid enough to think thats the only way to have success.

 

[pehawk]

Good call on Manuel. I'd LOVE him to be a Hawks pick in the 3rd or 4th round pick. Much like the man who's messes Manuel had to clean up, Ponder, he'll be taken higher than he should be.

There BFS, I mentioned Ponder.

 

[ivotuk]

i don't see this as having a lot of effect on Flynn's value. Sure people like the idea but for every Kaep or Wilson there's a Cam Newton, injured Robert Griffin, or the gifted pocket passer like Brees, Brady and Flacco.

Then you have to have the infrastructure to support a read option QB. A running game and offensive line and the receivers to threaten short or down the field. There are a lot of teams that can function if they get a QB and win a few games, then the coach doesn't have to worry about his job right away like the former Jaguars coach.

Add to that, these guys don't grow on trees. Most of this years QBs are pocket passers with a few that have some mobility, but I don't see anyone with the kind of experience Russell Wilson had. And there are exactly zero QBs like Kaep with 10,000 yards passing and 4000 yards rushing in college.

The west coast offense is still alive and well in the NFL and Matt Flynn has demonstrated his ability to run it, and run it well.

 

[Winterfell]

Not to speak for Kearly, but my honest opinion of Kaepernick vs RW is that one has ungodly tools and a HC who knows how to take full advantage of those tools without making him experience the true rigors of playing QB (ie consistent reads/progressions). RW, on the otherhand IMO, along with great tools, is more adept at making reads/progressions.

I will probably get flamed for this, but Harbaugh has made life so ridiculously easy for his QBs, dating back to his San Diego days with Josh Johnson. Think about it, name one Harbaugh QB that hasn't been really efficient? Why is this?

As much as I hate the man, he is brilliant with play design/call. There's a reason he has significant designed movement pre-snap. It basically makes the defense show their entire hand of what they are doing. A simple check optimizes the play call. Furthermore, I have paid very close attention to Kaepernick, and during the ATL game, I can honestly say I never saw him move off of a first read the entire game. Even slow developing plays (like the big V Davis catch), he was simply eyeing him the whole way, and the play design made the crossing routes rub together, allowing Davis unnatural separation on the play.

I really don't want to discredit Kaepernick as he is a fantastic physical talent (and by all means a smart kid), but I've noticed more often than not, if the first read breaks down, he's a totally different player. And like I said earlier, name a Harbaugh QB who has struggled with efficiency?

I think all that makes a lot of sense. That CK's job is made easier with Harbaugh, and his strengths are emphasized and his weaknesses softened.

It's just that saying RW is a rare QB while saying that CK is not rare implies that a QB like CK is easy to find and that RW is heads and shoulders better CK. Which even though I believe RW is going to have the better career, I can't agree that at the moment there is that much of a performance difference between RW and CK. They both are supported by a great defense and physical running back. Both led their teams to wins and the playoffs.

I would say that at the moment, RW and CK are a very similar kind of QB.

I'd say RW has the edge in work ethic, composure, football IQ, reading coverages, agility/elusiveness, passing accuracy, pocket awareness.

But to be fair I would say that CK has a slight edge in arm strength, running speed, and size. Not that RW is a pushover at any of those, but to be fair, that's just what I see.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

Actually, Kearly, while Flynn may be hosed on the short term while the NFL's crush on mobility plays itself out, it should prove to be a short-lived crush and will leave Flynn's value unharmed in the long run.

The reason? RG3. You know all this quite well, but there's a reason mobile QB's aren't common in the NFL, and it's because they not only expose themselves to injury with their play style, but often allow it to preempt the development of their passing skills in college because they can run so effectively. The option is becoming all the rage, but next year will be that narrow window between the advent of a new gimmick and NFL defenses adapting to it. You won't see the Packers utterly ignore Colin Kaepernick's mobility again.

The only mobile QB's in the league that go on to have stable careers will be the ones who can still pass well, who can use their mobility intelligently and protect themselves, and who can play patient and take what they're given. Vick has already fallen short of that. RG3, Newton, and Kaep may or may not find ultimate success. Russell Wilson is the pinnacle of the model, and it's honestly not because of his legs. It's his brain.

 

[SonicHawk]

Jim Harbaugh is an excellent coach. He's just a doosssshhh.

Kaepernick seems to be an ok QB. I don't think he has the accuracy or the football IQ that RW has, but he's mobile and makes decent decisions on run/pass and an excellent pass protection. They also have had frank gore/james have very good seasons.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Little early to be crowning the read option as a viable long-term wrinkle for certain, isn't it? I would say it needs to have two consecutive years of success for multiple teams before that can happen.

 

[Winterfell]

Actually, Kearly, while Flynn may be hosed on the short term while the NFL's crush on mobility plays itself out, it should prove to be a short-lived crush and will leave Flynn's value unharmed in the long run.

The reason? RG3. You know all this quite well, but there's a reason mobile QB's aren't common in the NFL, and it's because they not only expose themselves to injury with their play style, but often allow it to preempt the development of their passing skills in college because they can run so effectively. The option is becoming all the rage, but next year will be that narrow window between the advent of a new gimmick and NFL defenses adapting to it. You won't see the Packers utterly ignore Colin Kaepernick's mobility again.

The only mobile QB's in the league that go on to have stable careers will be the ones who can still pass well, who can use their mobility intelligently and protect themselves, and who can play patient and take what they're given. Vick has already fallen short of that. RG3, Newton, and Kaep may or may not find ultimate success. Russell Wilson is the pinnacle of the model, and it's honestly not because of his legs. It's his brain.

I totally love and agree with this post.

While mobile QBs are truly shiny toys for OCs to play with, they are inherently risky unless they happen to be built to take hits (Newton) or has the smarts to know how to protect themselves through throwing the ball away/sliding (Wilson). Vince Young, Michael Vick, RG3 all have missed significant time due to injury, meanwhile scaring the crap out of their coaches and their fanbase. I don't think pocket passing traditional QBs will be going out of style any time soon.

Wilson might not be as physically gifted (he's still very physically gifted, don't get me wrong) as Cam Newton or RG3 but what he does have over them is football smarts. When he runs, he's so smart about when to slide and go out of bounds. If something isn't there, he'll throw a ball away rather than force a throw or try to run with blitzers closing in on him.

 

[chris98251]

Well the Read option is nice as QB's learn, but as they age the wheels won't be there, they will accumulate hits. The just athletes will be done quicker then the cerebial QB's, Flynn is a smart guy I think while it's a copy cat league it's also an old school league to. Teams will throw some wrinkles in but will still use whatever the OC thinks is bread and butter.

 

[RichNhansom]

Actually, Kearly, while Flynn may be hosed on the short term while the NFL's crush on mobility plays itself out, it should prove to be a short-lived crush and will leave Flynn's value unharmed in the long run.

The reason? RG3. You know all this quite well, but there's a reason mobile QB's aren't common in the NFL, and it's because they not only expose themselves to injury with their play style, but often allow it to preempt the development of their passing skills in college because they can run so effectively. The option is becoming all the rage, but next year will be that narrow window between the advent of a new gimmick and NFL defenses adapting to it. You won't see the Packers utterly ignore Colin Kaepernick's mobility again.

The only mobile QB's in the league that go on to have stable careers will be the ones who can still pass well, who can use their mobility intelligently and protect themselves, and who can play patient and take what they're given. Vick has already fallen short of that. RG3, Newton, and Kaep may or may not find ultimate success. Russell Wilson is the pinnacle of the model, and it's honestly not because of his legs. It's his brain.

Great post Montana

 

[mretrade]

Flynn has some trade value but its capped because his contract is too expensive to be a backup and he is still an unknown commodity as a starter. I think teams are now more willing to go to young quarterbacks due to the success of Wilson, Kaepernick, Tannehill, RG3, & Luck. Not only that but the rookie wage scale makes it much more cost effective.

Plus, the market for him isn't going to be much more than what it was last year, especially now having to give up an additional draft pick to get him.

Oh and since when does 6 feet 4 230 pound quarterbacks who can also run a 4.5 with a strong arm grow on trees?

 

[VaporHawk]

Flynn has some trade value but its capped because his contract is too expensive to be a backup and he is still an unknown commodity as a starter. I think teams are now more willing to go to young quarterbacks due to the success of Wilson, Kaepernick, Tannehill, RG3, & Luck. Not only that but the rookie wage scale makes it much more cost effective.

Plus, the market for him isn't going to be much more than what it was last year, especially now having to give up an additional draft pick to get him.

Oh and since when does 6 feet 4 230 pound quarterbacks who can also run a 4.5 with a strong arm grow on trees?

I have to go with this guy. Spot on.

 

[Hawkscanner]

The NFL is a copycat league, and if there is one thing that defined the 2012 season, it was the emergence of the mobile QB and the validation of the read option in the NFL. While I think most NFL GMs are probably smart enough to know that QBs like Russell Wilson are very rare, QBs like Colin Kaepernick are not. Finding QBs with tools but not skills isn't hard to do, and SF is proving that such a player can lead a potent NFL offense, even without top shelf WRs.

I see a lot of owners/GMs watching that at home and thinking "why the hell aren't we doing that?" I expect a pretty huge shift in that direction starting immediately this offseason, and though EJ Manuel might have mid round draft grades, will it shock anyone when a team trades up in round 2 to reach for him extra hard? It won't surprise me. This whole situation pretty much sucks the wind out of Matt Flynn's sails. There might be some teams that like Flynn as a backup, which explains the "wait til he's released" logic. Flynn has his fans, just none big enough to pay him starter money or hand him a starting job.

Maybe Kip ... maybe a few teams. But at the same time, I believe there will also be a lot of teams out there hearkening back to that Ngata hit on RGIII (and ergo his messed up knee) and saying, "See! See! I told you so. Told you that this Zone Read Option stuff just isn't sustainable." I believe you're right that some teams might think be inclined to think that ... but I'm not entirely certain we're going to see any kind of mass exodus to get that type of QB.

 

[HawkWow]

Great thread and I personally look forward to the rest of the league doin the copy cat thing. For every Wilson there's 10 dozen Tebows that I am hopeful 31 teams will be wasting high draft choices on. There's no denying athletes today are superior to athletes of yester-year, but if you look at the top 20 QBs of all time, there's like 2 on that list (Young and Elway) that I think really scared teams with their legs. QBs like Staubach and Rodgers could / can run, but not in the sense of what we are seeing with Griffin, Cam and now Kaep. Those guys see off their first option, tuck and run, much like Vick.

Wilson obviously ran with great success this year too, but i expect to see his game look more like Aaron Rodgers' in the immediate future.

I

 

[QuickLightning]

Jim Harbaugh is an excellent coach. He's just a doosssshhh.

Kaepernick seems to be an ok QB. I don't think he has the accuracy or the football IQ that RW has, but he's mobile and makes decent decisions on run/pass and an excellent pass protection. They also have had frank gore/james have very good seasons.

Doesn't Wilson consistently overthrow his receivers, dating back to his college days? I see those comments in these forums all the time. Kaepernick has also fit a lot of passes in extremely tight windows. There is a reason they both made it to the post season. Both are extremely talented QBs with the potential for bright futures ahead of them.

Also, on the subject of "Wilson is a passer that can run while Kaepernick, Newton and RG3 are run first QBs like Vick", which team had the lowest pass attempts in the NFL?