The Denver pick can easily move down to 5

[seabowl]

Right now the difference between Seattle getting the third pick in the draft and the fifth pick in the draft from Denver relies on the NFL schedule makers. If they schedule the Ravens versus Bengals game to start before the Broncos versus the Chargers, then it is likely that we move down to the fifth pick in the draft. However, if they schedule it at the same time as the Bronco game or after, then it is likely we get the third pick in the draft.

I’m thinking we should know sometime today as to when that game is and yes it’s a huge deal.

 

[Spohawks]

Its all perspective.

If at the start of the season, someone were to say "The hawks will get the 5th overall pick", we would have been fired up.

I get the idea how the play would diminish due to the playoffs not being on the table. However these guys are still playing for their next contract.

The real issue is the coaches pulling the best players so they won't get hurt and keeping them safe for next year.

Pick 3-5 works for me...it adds to the drama.

 

[seabowl]

Its all perspective.

If at the start of the season, someone were to say "The hawks will get the 5th overall pick", we would have been fired up.

I get the idea how the play would diminish due to the playoffs not being on the table. However these guys are still playing for their next contract.

The real issue is the coaches pulling the best players so they won't get hurt and keeping them safe for next year.

Pick 3-5 works for me...it adds to the drama.

Yes it’s about pulling players. If the Bengals beat the Ravens before the Chargers play the Broncos it’s all but certain the Chargers will be resting their starters. The Broncos then likely will win the game and then the Seahawks will be picking fifth because I don’t see any way Arizona beats San Francisco.

I know you said picks 3 to 5 work for you but I’ve been following the draft since the 80s and there’s a huge difference between three and five especially this draft with the players and the value of those picks.

 

[DomeHawk]

Yes it’s about pulling players. If the Bengals beat the Ravens before the Chargers play the Broncos it’s all but certain the Chargers will be resting their starters. The Broncos then likely will win the game and then the Seahawks will be picking fifth because I don’t see any way Arizona beats San Francisco.

I know you said picks 3 to 5 work for you but I’ve been following the draft since the 80s and there’s a huge difference between three and five especially this draft with the players and the value of those picks.

I agree, the first three picks are the elite picks. More than that, a #3 pick holds great trade value.

 

[Lagartixa]

Chase Stuart's original how-well-did-these-picks-actually-end-up-producing (in AV ) chart from 2012 has the #5 pick worth about 12% less than the #3 pick (that is, the #5 pick is worth about 88% of the #3 pick), while the Jimmy Johnson chart, which was a reasonable guide to how front offices used to value the picks for trades, has the difference as much bigger - the #5 pick on the JJ chart is worth almost 23% less than the #3 pick.

That Stuart chart appears to be using AV as it was meant to be used, because it's taking averages over lots of players. But it's from 2012, and a lot has probably changed since then. And if any front offices were using the JJ chart now as a guide to how much they should be valuing different picks, they'd be getting fleeced repeatedly by sharper front offices. While it used to be a reasonably good estimate of how much front offices valued different picks, now it's sort of the baseline that teams have used to develop their own charts. My understanding is that the general belief for some time has been that the JJ chart (also called the McCoy chart, because it wasn't Johnson who actually worked it out) falls off too quickly, especially in how it values mid-round picks.

 

[seabowl]

I agree, the first three picks are the elite picks. More than that, a #3 pick holds great trade value.

Probably the first 4 picks in this draft though as you have (as of now) two highly rated qb’s (Young and Stroud) and two highly rated defensive guys (Carter and Anderson). After that there is a perceived drop off.

Problem is we’ll either be 3 or 5 with almost zero chance at 4 as AZ ain’t beating SF. I know most here are concentrating on Hawks making playoffs but this is waaaay more important than that for the long term success for this team.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Go Bolts!

 

[Ozzy]

All this talk about Young/CJ vs Carter and none of them might be an option

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Makes you wonder what kind of phone calls/offers JS will get when the Hawks are on the board. He's in a good position. Hopefully top 3 picks, but it could drop down a little. Still would be a hell of a get in the fleecing of a trade.

 

[DomeHawk]

Probably the first 4 picks in this draft though as you have (as of now) two highly rated qb’s (Young and Stroud) and two highly rated defensive guys (Carter and Anderson). After that there is a perceived drop off.

Problem is we’ll either be 3 or 5 with almost zero chance at 4 as AZ ain’t beating SF. I know most here are concentrating on Hawks making playoffs but this is waaaay more important than that for the long term success for this team.

I get it, most think that we aren't going anywhere but it's like the lottery, you can't win if you don't play.

I always want to win regardless of the situation. Being in the playoffs are a great experience for a young team. And, if you don't go far it just makes you want more next year.

 

[Ozzy]

Seattle isn't a young team, they are one of the oldest teams in the league but yeah I do think playoff experience is good for the younger guys on the team.

The #3 vs #5 I think is potentially huge for the Seahawks with lasting effects. I think there is a fairly big drop off after 4 in this draft for what Seattle needs ie a premier lineman or Quarterback.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

And it's great that we are even talking about this to be honest. A top 5 pick, in the first AND second round? Incredible.

 

[sutz]

Not a lot we can do about where Denver's pick lands. Just have to hide and watch.

We had the discussion of how "young" the team is a couple of months ago. I think we are young in enough key areas to say that yeah, we are a kind of young team. It matters how you calculate that. Geno isn't "young," but he doesn't have a lot of miles on him, so to speak, having been a backup most of his career.

Our two OTs are definitely young and should get better. So is our new RB. Much of our secondary is young, as well as our LB corps. Bottom line, there's a lot of growth available to us that should improve next season.

 

[pmedic920]

Probably the first 4 picks in this draft though as you have (as of now) two highly rated qb’s (Young and Stroud) and two highly rated defensive guys (Carter and Anderson). After that there is a perceived drop off.

Problem is we’ll either be 3 or 5 with almost zero chance at 4 as AZ ain’t beating SF. I know most here are concentrating on Hawks making playoffs but this is waaaay more important than that for the long term success for this team.

I don’t know about “waaaay more” but you absolutely make a valid point.

With as young as this team is I think there is a lot of value in making the playoffs in terms of the experience alone, i even believe there’s a bit of value in experiencing the bitterness of the playoff loss (that we most certainly will see).

Edit:
I understand PNW25s point but we have a lot of young players and players that haven’t played a long time together. Average age of the players doesn’t make us young but I still look at them as a young team.

 

[rjdriver]

Raven's have a decent shot of beating the Bengals I would think. Russ played much better last week (although some costly TO's), so I see Denver potentially beating the Chargers.

If you would have told me at the beginning of the year we would have somewhere around the 3-5th pick of the draft , I wouldn't have been shocked at all. I just would have figured it was our organic pick!!

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Broncos are playing the Chargers. Much better shot of them losing. Though they def. played better last week (booooo)

 

[seabowl]

Broncos are playing the Chargers. Much better shot of them losing. Though they def. played better last week (booooo)

Not if the Chargers are locked into the 5th seed and sit their players. Their coach already said that he is playing the starters to try and win the fifth seed. Again, they may have already locked up the fifth seed by the time their game starts hence the discussion.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Just heard the Bears are starting Nathan Peterman. I wonder what "injury" they came up with the Justin Fields?

 

[Hawknballs]

Peterman must have a couple hot sisters or something. IDK how a 50% passer who averages 4 yards a throw and 3 career TDs to 13 INTs still has a job.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Finally, we agree on something. He's brutal. Bears are not even trying to hide wanting to keep that high pick. I wonder if he just laughs about actually getting paid to be in the NFL?