Seattle's strength of victory scenario to win the division

[Tech Worlds]

Wow! Welcome here! Too bad it took you till you had the division locked up to show your face.

 

[Polaris]

Wow! Welcome here! Too bad it took you till you had the division locked up to show your face.

I think that fact (he waited until Az has virtually clinched the division) says it all. Go ahead and gloat Card fan. I'm looking forward to the rematches (yes plural).

 

[iigakusei]

I think the way we are playing now it pretty much goes without saying nobody would look forward to playing Seattle in the playoffs. But the same can be said for Green Bay if they get going. Even though the Cardinals could definitely beat Green Bay or Seattle, I don't think they would be "comfortable" in meeting with either especially considering the Cards don't really have a homefield advantage and personally I think they play better on the road.

 

[hawknation2015]

Elo gives us a 3% chance right now to win the division. Assuming Arizona loses out and the Seahawks win out, there are quite a few different scenarios where Pittsburgh/Dallas win three more games than Cincinnati/New Orleans.

For example, if Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati this weekend, and both Dallas and New Orleans lose, that closes the gap to just two games.

It's not hard to see foundering New Orleans go 2-2 or 1-3 (@Tampa Bay, @Atlanta, Detroit). It's not hard to see Dallas go 3-1 or 2-2 (New York, Buffalo, Washington). It's not hard to see Pittsburgh go 3-1 or 4-4. And it's not that hard to see Cincinnati go 3-1 or 2-2 (Pittsburgh, Denver).

Both Pittsburgh and Dallas could go 3-1, while Cincinnati goes 2-2 and New Orleans goes 1-3. Or Pittsburgh could go 4-0 and Dallas could be 3-1, while Cincinnati goes 3-1 and New Orleans goes 1-3. Or Pittsburgh could go 4-0 and Dallas could be 2-2, while Cincinnati goes 2-2 and New Orleans goes 1-3. Or Pittsburgh could go 4-0 and Dallas could be 3-1, while Cincinnati goes 2-2 and New Orleans goes 2-2. Etc., etc. etc.

Stealers' Remaining Schedule:
Sun, Dec 13 @ Cincinnati (32% chance to win)
Sun, Dec 20 vs Denver (47% chance to win)
Sun, Dec 27 @ Baltimore (55% chance to win)
Sun, Jan 3 @ Cleveland (76% chance to win)

Cowgirls' Remaining Schedule:
Sun, Dec 13 @ Green Bay (23% chance to win)
Sat, Dec 19 vs New York (59% chance to win)
Sun, Dec 27 @ Buffalo (35% chance to win)
Sun, Jan 3 vs Washington (69% chance to win)

Cincinnati's Remaining Schedule:
Sun, Dec 13 vs Pittsburgh (32% chance to lose)
Sun, Dec 20 @ San Francisco (31% chance to lose)
Mon, Dec 28 @ Denver (62% chance to lose)
Sun, Jan 3 vs Baltimore (21% chance to lose)

New Orleans' Remaining Schedule:
Sun, Dec 13 @ Tampa Bay (64% chance to lose)
Mon, Dec 21 vs Detroit (49% chance to lose)
Sun, Dec 27 vs Jacksonville (30% chance to lose)
Sun, Jan 3 @ Atlanta (66% chance to lose)

 

[Bwarren]

I believe that the division is a moot point for winning. But I don't think we will lose to Arizona anymore this season.

 

[DavidSeven]

If the bye is out of the question, I'm not even sure how much winning the division really helps us.

Are we confident that any first-round home game would be easier than travelling to the NFC East winner?

We seem to play a lot better in Arizona anyway (if it comes down to that).

 

[Cartire]

If the bye is out of the question, I'm not even sure how much winning the division really helps us.

Are we confident that any first-round home game would be easier than travelling to the NFC East winner?

We seem to play a lot better in Arizona anyway (if it comes down to that).

Thats a good point if we could only land the #3 seed. Which is/would still be a possibility even if AZ lost. But a first round bye, with a home game after, would be far superior. You still have to travel after beating the nfcE to the same team that would have probably come to our house in the next round. And theres still the potential for loss in the wildcard. The #2 is worth the reach if your still in the hunt.

 

[drdiags]

Nice write-up but I feel bad for the poster who basically laid out the same scenario in meticulously laying out this same info. His post probably fell of the first page. Happens all the time.

 

[Cartire]

Nice write-up but I feel bad for the poster who basically laid out the same scenario in meticulously laying out this same info. His post probably fell of the first page. Happens all the time.

Polaris did it. It was a good thread with lots of responses. Most saw and gathered it up. Probably could have been stickied, but an updated, cut down scenario from Kearly, after the AZ loss, is fine too.

 

[DavidSeven]

If the bye is out of the question, I'm not even sure how much winning the division really helps us.

Are we confident that any first-round home game would be easier than travelling to the NFC East winner?

We seem to play a lot better in Arizona anyway (if it comes down to that).

Thats a good point if we could only land the #3 seed. Which is/would still be a possibility even if AZ lost. But a first round bye, with a home game after, would be far superior. You still have to travel after beating the nfcE to the same team that would have probably come to our house in the next round. And theres still the potential for loss in the wildcard. The #2 is worth the reach if your still in the hunt.

Oh, I definitely don't disagree there. The bye trumps all.

But have to imagine the odds of surpassing both ARI and GB for the #2 spot have to be hovering around a near impossibility at this point, which is why I didn't even consider it.

 

[seedhawk]

If you want an interesting playoff scenario, consider this. If GB wins out, they will be 12-4, and they still play the Cards, so AZ picks up a loss, so, in the final game, AZ has to win, cuz if we do, they tie GB at 12-4 but GB has the tie breaker.

So, if we already have the 5 seed locked up, would we consider resting players against AZ in week 17, because a win means nothing to us? However, what if GB needs us to beat the Cards for them to tie? What we do could/would shift everything around as far as seeding goes. Would you rather see GB as the #2 instead of the Cards?

How I think it shakes out.

Carolina #1
GB #2
AZ #3
East (who cares) #4
Hawks #5
Tampa #6

 

[Optimus25]

We'll beat Arizona when it counts in the playoffs.

I like your optimism.

*chuckle*

I seriously doubt the hawks will get as jobbed by the refs when we meet Arizona in the playoffs as they did last meeting. I almost never complain about officiating outside of my four walls, because i respect the difficulty of the position. But that game was painfully pathetic to watch unfold with the meticulous eyes on our guys and blindfolds on yours.

Barring that crew, I'm really optimistic about the rematch.

The officiating across the league has been garbage since week 1.

That being said, I'd expect no less than a great game.

You guys have every reason to be optimistic but I think it's a bit premature to think teams like Carolina and AZ are shaking in their boots about the prospects of having to host a playoff game vs the Seahawks.

They say to be the best you have to beat the best... and the challenge is most welcomed.

Well, def. agree with you there, this year just feels like refs don't have a good understanding of game flow and when and where they should inject themselves into the game. My biggest complaint is when they call penalties that have no bearing on the true outcome of the play and basically don't just let the players play.

I felt like that was the nature of our first game against you, in which any momentum play we mustered seemed to draw a flag to negate it. Same with last week which was in our favor, that it seemed if the vikes looked at us funny the refs felt the need to throw a flag.

Likewise you guys got such a BS call to propel you at Santa Clara.

Calls like that that literally decide a game should certainly be much more clear before flagged. Which goes back to my comment about refs understanding the moment.

Lastly, can't imagine anyone thinking a 12-0 or 11-2 team would shake in their boots over meeting anyone in the playoffs.... But i think the consensus both here and nationally is that both panther and cardinal organizations certainly don't want to play a hot Seahawk team with dominate playoff performance recently.

Honestly we could possibly be the first wild card team to be favored on the road in the divisional round against an unbeaten opponent. How crazy would that be?

I certainly believe Vegas would do it.

We had Carolina on the ropes badly this year, and have outlasted them IIRC three years straight previously.

Also rawls didn't play them yet, as lynch came back that week, and truthfully beast has been largely ineffective against them. So personally i think our chances go higher with the revitalized run game rawls brings.

Mark my words, if our offense continues this dominance we will be favored throughout the playoffs by Vegas.

As a five seed.

 

[Optimus25]

If you want an interesting playoff scenario, consider this. If GB wins out, they will be 12-4, and they still play the Cards, so AZ picks up a loss, so, in the final game, AZ has to win, cuz if we do, they tie GB at 12-4 but GB has the tie breaker.

So, if we already have the 5 seed locked up, would we consider resting players against AZ in week 17, because a win means nothing to us? However, what if GB needs us to beat the Cards for them to tie? What we do could/would shift everything around as far as seeding goes. Would you rather see GB as the #2 instead of the Cards?

How I think it shakes out.

Carolina #1
GB #2
AZ #3
East (who cares) #4
Hawks #5
Tampa #6

Two words.

ALWAYS COMPETE

 

[seedhawk]

If you want an interesting playoff scenario, consider this. If GB wins out, they will be 12-4, and they still play the Cards, so AZ picks up a loss, so, in the final game, AZ has to win, cuz if we do, they tie GB at 12-4 but GB has the tie breaker.

So, if we already have the 5 seed locked up, would we consider resting players against AZ in week 17, because a win means nothing to us? However, what if GB needs us to beat the Cards for them to tie? What we do could/would shift everything around as far as seeding goes. Would you rather see GB as the #2 instead of the Cards?

How I think it shakes out.

Carolina #1
GB #2
AZ #3
East (who cares) #4
Hawks #5
Tampa #6

Two words.

ALWAYS COMPETE

Or perhaps READING COMPREHENSION
I guess you missed the part where I gave my predictions. If indeed AZ winds up as the #3, we must have done the always compete deal.

 

[Polaris]

Nice write-up but I feel bad for the poster who basically laid out the same scenario in meticulously laying out this same info. His post probably fell of the first page. Happens all the time.

Polaris did it. It was a good thread with lots of responses. Most saw and gathered it up. Probably could have been stickied, but an updated, cut down scenario from Kearly, after the AZ loss, is fine too.

That's alright. I'll start an updated week 15 scenario after all the NFC games are done after this weekend.

 

[Optimus25]

If you want an interesting playoff scenario, consider this. If GB wins out, they will be 12-4, and they still play the Cards, so AZ picks up a loss, so, in the final game, AZ has to win, cuz if we do, they tie GB at 12-4 but GB has the tie breaker.

So, if we already have the 5 seed locked up, would we consider resting players against AZ in week 17, because a win means nothing to us? However, what if GB needs us to beat the Cards for them to tie? What we do could/would shift everything around as far as seeding goes. Would you rather see GB as the #2 instead of the Cards?

How I think it shakes out.

Carolina #1
GB #2
AZ #3
East (who cares) #4
Hawks #5
Tampa #6

Two words.

ALWAYS COMPETE

Or perhaps READING COMPREHENSION
I guess you missed the part where I gave my predictions. If indeed AZ winds up as the #3, we must have done the always compete deal.

Wow dude. I actually missed nothing at all rereading your post. You posed a question in your post. I quote...''if we have the five seed locked up, would we consider resting players against AZ in week 17, because a win means nothing to us.?'' My answer is play to win every game, period.

Posing a question and then insinuating someone is a moron for answering it because you already answered it seriously questions your reading comprehension, or your general understanding of what a forum is.

 

[Mike 4G]

With the last two wins by the Cardinals, their odds of winning the division increased to virtually 100%. Congrats Cards fans, your team almost certainly has the division locked up with the win last night. But just for fun, here is a breakdown of what needs to happen for Seattle to be division champs in 2015:

Seattle MUST win out. Arizona MUST lose out. A tie by either team clinches the division for AZ. This would put both teams at 11-5.

If this happens, here is how the division tiebreakers would apply:


Head-to-head: Tied 1-1.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. Tied 4-2.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. Tied. 9-3.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Tied 8-4.
Strength of victory. Arizona currently leading SoV tiebreaker by 3 wins (see below).
Strength of schedule. Seattle wins SoS tiebreaker (thanks to Carolina having a monster year).

So how does strength of victory shake out? Well, assuming that Seattle wins out and Arizona loses out, then most of the teams Seattle will have beaten are teams AZ beat too, with the exception of four teams:

AZ has victories over Cincy (10-2) and New Orleans (4-8).
Seattle has victories over Pittsburgh (7-5) and Dallas (4-8).

This puts Seahawks fans in the ironic position of rooting for the Steelers and Cowboys.

The good news here is that New Orleans has one of the worst defenses in NFL history and their remaining schedule is against some teams playing better football late in the season (other than Atlanta). The other good news is that Pittsburgh is one of the hottest teams in the NFL and has a decent shot to finish 11-5.

The bad news is that Cincy is 10-2 and will probably finish 12-4 at worst as they have games against Baltimore and @SF left on the schedule. Add SF to the ironic list of teams to root for. And the worst news is that Dallas needs to win games, and Dallas is really terrible. Dallas will only be favored to win in one of their final four games.

However, if Seattle gains 3 games in the strength of victory area over the next 4 weeks, then it would make SoV a tie and move the division tiebreaker to SoS, which Seattle will win.

It's a real long shot though, even if AZ loses out and Seattle wins out I'd still guess that AZ has a 80-90% chance to win the division based on SoV. I could see Seattle picking up 1 win in SoV, but 3 is going to be hard. Remaining games for each SoV team:

Cincy: Steelers, @49ers, @Broncos, Ravens
New Orleans: @Tampa, Detroit, Jacksonville, @Atlanta
Pittsburgh: @Cincy, Broncos, @Baltimore, @Cleveland
Dallas: @GB, Jets, @Buffalo, Washington

Nice write up as always.

 

[Keyhawk]

Great post.

 

[TXHawk]

If the Seahawks win the division I'm going to head to Vegas and go all in drawing to an inside straight.

 

[hawknation2015]

With Pittsburgh's win over Cincinnati and New Orleans' win, Pittsburgh/Dallas are 2.5 games behind Cincinnati/New Orleans. A Dallas loss to Green Bay would keep them three games back.

Pittsburgh needs to beat Denver next week. Dallas needs to beat New York. And it would help if Cincinnati lost at SF or if New Orleans lost to Detroit.