kearly
New member
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2007
- Messages
- 15,974
- Reaction score
- 0
Just my opinion, feel free to disagree. It's ultra late and I actually have work in a few hours, so I'll try to keep this to maybe 1500 words instead of 4500. This is an offseason post which involves a non-Seahawk and while I will probably invoke the 2013 draft in my reasoning, I feel this is a Seahawks topic because it deals with a move I believe the Seahawks should make, appear to be in the direction of making, and very well might actually make.
I've spent many hours a day during the last 3 months looking at prospects for the upcoming draft. I haven't written scouting reports on every single one, but if you asked me I could probably give you a self-informed opinion on 50 to 100 players in this draft already. I love this draft. You guys probably have no idea how deep it is, but I have personally never seen so many areas stocked so deep with exciting talent. If there was ever a year to nail it in the draft, it's this year.
However, if I could name 3 exceptions to this draft class being deep- I'd name DT, DE, and (read option) QB. There are a few nice DTs in this draft, but they could be gone before the 25th pick. At DE, most of the best options will probably go in the top 15 picks. That forced me to look later for value in the mid rounds. I spotted Corey Lemonier fairly early on as a potential home run pick in round 3, but it's starting to sound like scouts and execs have seen the same things I have and Lemonier could be a 2nd round or even 1st round riser. After Lemonier, there are some solid options out there, but Lemonier is the only one that really goes straight down the middle of Pete Carroll's strike zone, and I'm not really sure we would get him. I could go on and on, but to avoid turning this into a 4500 word meandering essay, I'd ask that you take my word on the sparsity of this LEO draft class, for now.
I'm not saying that this DE/DT class sucks, it's just that the kind of talent that fits Seattle's preferences is relatively sparse compared to most years, and when you couple that with the fact that 31 NFL teams are all desperately trying to copy the Seahawks draft strategy, it means those mid to late round steals don't last til' the mid to late rounds anymore.
I now think that if you can possibly address DL in free agency at reasonable cost, that should be considered "plan A". Desmond Bryant should be looked into at DT. If not, then retaining Jason Jones must be a top priority.
At DE, we need help and depth. Drafted DE's usually don't post 10+ sacks in year one, especially if you are picking late like Seattle is. Guys like Cornelius Washington or Margus Hunt are probably "down the road" contributors similar to draft picks spent on guys like Korey Toomer or Jaye Howard last year. Even if they took the polished Alex Okafor, who may or may not have the speed Carroll finds acceptable, it seems unlikely he'd dominate the league in year one.
This leads me to John Abraham. Released a week ago, Abraham hadn't received any interest until Seattle invited him in for a workout yesterday. The very first thing I notice about this was how Seattle waited a week before contacting him. You wonder if they had little interest, and then saw Abraham just sitting there unclaimed for a week, and thought, "hey wait a minute."
Abraham is 35 years old this season. He also had 10 sacks, 6 forced fumbles, and 7 passes batted down last year. Over his last five seasons, he's averaged around 10 sacks a season. Abraham is a really good football player, and he's been consistent. While he's ancient by DE standards, the fact is, his production just hasn't dropped off yet, and when I put on what video I could find of Abraham in 2012, he was still explosive, fast, and well, awesome. He didn't look anything like a 34 year old.
I know the year 2000 was a long time ago, but Abraham ran a very, very good 4.55 at his combine. Obviously, I don't think he runs a 4.55 now, but that's an incredibly good 40 time for a 266 pound player, and the thing about fast players is that they generally age well. So far, Abraham has been the epitome of the idea that speedy players age better. I don't know how fast Abraham is now, but I can tell you this: he still looks fast. And he doesn't look old.
The funny thing is, if Abraham had just been a normal free agent after an expired contract, I'm sure he'd get interest. But when teams see a guy get released, it's only in our nature to assume the Falcons must know something horrible about him, that it can't just be as simple as not wanting to pay him many millions of dollars for his age 35 season. There is a certain "bias" to those kinds of players, and I think Seattle's decision to show interest in Abraham probably occurred when they realized that this bias might allow them to sign Abraham to a very cheap, 1 year contract, and get 2010 Raheem Brock type production from it.
I'm not saying you can't sign Abraham and draft a DE. Sure you could- maybe by spending a mid to late rounder on a project and then practice squad him. Maybe you even keep 5 DEs (counting Red Bryant) and find another place on the roster to trim down. Bottom line is, I think Abraham could really help us. He's still explosive, he's never stopped being productive, and he could be very low cost which helps our cap. Consider too that he had a highly productive season last year playing on a defensive line that completely sucked outside of him. Line Abraham up next to Jason Jones, Brandon Mebane, and Chris Clemons, and it's possible he might actually improve on his 2012 numbers.
Anyway, Seattle has done this dance before with older, veteran stars, especially on the defensive line. If they sign Abraham at low cost, I'd consider it a fantastic move.
Edit: He's also a class act and a true professional about how he's handled this situation.
I've spent many hours a day during the last 3 months looking at prospects for the upcoming draft. I haven't written scouting reports on every single one, but if you asked me I could probably give you a self-informed opinion on 50 to 100 players in this draft already. I love this draft. You guys probably have no idea how deep it is, but I have personally never seen so many areas stocked so deep with exciting talent. If there was ever a year to nail it in the draft, it's this year.
However, if I could name 3 exceptions to this draft class being deep- I'd name DT, DE, and (read option) QB. There are a few nice DTs in this draft, but they could be gone before the 25th pick. At DE, most of the best options will probably go in the top 15 picks. That forced me to look later for value in the mid rounds. I spotted Corey Lemonier fairly early on as a potential home run pick in round 3, but it's starting to sound like scouts and execs have seen the same things I have and Lemonier could be a 2nd round or even 1st round riser. After Lemonier, there are some solid options out there, but Lemonier is the only one that really goes straight down the middle of Pete Carroll's strike zone, and I'm not really sure we would get him. I could go on and on, but to avoid turning this into a 4500 word meandering essay, I'd ask that you take my word on the sparsity of this LEO draft class, for now.
I'm not saying that this DE/DT class sucks, it's just that the kind of talent that fits Seattle's preferences is relatively sparse compared to most years, and when you couple that with the fact that 31 NFL teams are all desperately trying to copy the Seahawks draft strategy, it means those mid to late round steals don't last til' the mid to late rounds anymore.
I now think that if you can possibly address DL in free agency at reasonable cost, that should be considered "plan A". Desmond Bryant should be looked into at DT. If not, then retaining Jason Jones must be a top priority.
At DE, we need help and depth. Drafted DE's usually don't post 10+ sacks in year one, especially if you are picking late like Seattle is. Guys like Cornelius Washington or Margus Hunt are probably "down the road" contributors similar to draft picks spent on guys like Korey Toomer or Jaye Howard last year. Even if they took the polished Alex Okafor, who may or may not have the speed Carroll finds acceptable, it seems unlikely he'd dominate the league in year one.
This leads me to John Abraham. Released a week ago, Abraham hadn't received any interest until Seattle invited him in for a workout yesterday. The very first thing I notice about this was how Seattle waited a week before contacting him. You wonder if they had little interest, and then saw Abraham just sitting there unclaimed for a week, and thought, "hey wait a minute."
Abraham is 35 years old this season. He also had 10 sacks, 6 forced fumbles, and 7 passes batted down last year. Over his last five seasons, he's averaged around 10 sacks a season. Abraham is a really good football player, and he's been consistent. While he's ancient by DE standards, the fact is, his production just hasn't dropped off yet, and when I put on what video I could find of Abraham in 2012, he was still explosive, fast, and well, awesome. He didn't look anything like a 34 year old.
I know the year 2000 was a long time ago, but Abraham ran a very, very good 4.55 at his combine. Obviously, I don't think he runs a 4.55 now, but that's an incredibly good 40 time for a 266 pound player, and the thing about fast players is that they generally age well. So far, Abraham has been the epitome of the idea that speedy players age better. I don't know how fast Abraham is now, but I can tell you this: he still looks fast. And he doesn't look old.
The funny thing is, if Abraham had just been a normal free agent after an expired contract, I'm sure he'd get interest. But when teams see a guy get released, it's only in our nature to assume the Falcons must know something horrible about him, that it can't just be as simple as not wanting to pay him many millions of dollars for his age 35 season. There is a certain "bias" to those kinds of players, and I think Seattle's decision to show interest in Abraham probably occurred when they realized that this bias might allow them to sign Abraham to a very cheap, 1 year contract, and get 2010 Raheem Brock type production from it.
I'm not saying you can't sign Abraham and draft a DE. Sure you could- maybe by spending a mid to late rounder on a project and then practice squad him. Maybe you even keep 5 DEs (counting Red Bryant) and find another place on the roster to trim down. Bottom line is, I think Abraham could really help us. He's still explosive, he's never stopped being productive, and he could be very low cost which helps our cap. Consider too that he had a highly productive season last year playing on a defensive line that completely sucked outside of him. Line Abraham up next to Jason Jones, Brandon Mebane, and Chris Clemons, and it's possible he might actually improve on his 2012 numbers.
Anyway, Seattle has done this dance before with older, veteran stars, especially on the defensive line. If they sign Abraham at low cost, I'd consider it a fantastic move.
Edit: He's also a class act and a true professional about how he's handled this situation.
