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Seahawks Quest for the #1 Seed ...
Exploring Playoff Scenarios
A 33-10 win against the Falcons, coupled with a 49er Loss to the Panthers made Sunday and awesome day for your Seattle Seahawks in their quest for the #1 Playoff Seed. Seattle is in pole position with a 2 lap lead over the Saints and a 2 ½ lap lead over the 49ers, Lions, and Panthers.
950 KJR-am’s Mitch Levy often does a “Mr. Playoffs” segment where he examines all the playoff scenarios. We’re going to do something similar here, taking a look at a few scenarios for the Seahawks top competitors and where they all stand as far as the #1 Seed is concerned at this moment in time. We’ll take a look at each of the top 4 teams and examine the possibilities – assuming that the each team somehow ends the season tied with the Seahawks. Before we get in to that though, it’s incumbent to lay out how ties are broken. Now, someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but it’s my understanding that according to the NFL’s official website that any potential ties for the #1 seed would be broken using the Wild Card tiebreakers. On the league’s website, we read …
In other words, if a situation ever presented itself where 2 teams in the same conference (who were not in the same division) ever tied for the conference’s best record, we would use the Wild Card tie breakers in order to decide who ends up with the #1 Seed. The NFL’s official Wild Card tie breakers are as follows …
NFL Tiebreaking Procedures
Keep those in mind as we move forward. Now, let’s get going by taking a look at each of the Seahawks 4 top competitors at this moment in time …
Detroit Lions (6-3)
Week 1 – vs. Minnesota Vikings [2-7] (Win 34-24)
Week 2— at Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (Loss 21-25)
Week 3 – at Washington Redskins [3-6] (Win 27-20)
Week 4 – vs. Chicago Bears [5-4] (Win 40-32)
Week 5 – at Green Bay Packers [5-4] (Loss 9-22)
Week 6 – at Cleveland Browns [4-5] (Win 31-17)
Week 7 – vs. Cincinnati Bengals [6-4] (Loss 24-27)
Week 8 – vs. Dallas Cowboys [5-5] (Win 31-30)
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – at Chicago Bears [5-4] (Win 21-19)
Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 11 – at Pittsburgh Steelers [3-6]
Week 12 – vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [0-8]
Week 13 – vs. Green Bay Packers [5-4]
Week 14 – at Philadelphia Eagles [5-5]
Week 15 – vs. Baltimore Ravens [4-5]
Week 16 – vs. New York Giants [3-6]
Week 17 – at Minnesota Vikings [2-7]
Record of Remaining Opponents 22-41 (.349)
Strength of Victory … 24-31 (.436)
In this scenario, we’re going to assume that the Lions win out the rest of their games to get to 13-3 … the Seahawks lose 2 of their remaining 6 to both the 49ers and the Saints … and both the Niners and Saints finish 12-4. [Don’t ask me how or who the Niners or Saints would lose to … just play along for argument’s sake, OK?]
In that scenario, here is how the tie would be broken …
Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs)… NA
Tiebreaker #2 -- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Lions … 11-2
Seahawks … 11-2 (if assuming worst case scenario and losses against both the 49ers and Saints)
Tiebreaker #3 – Best Win/Loss Percentage in Common Games (minimum of 4)…
Lions … 1-1 (against Vikings and Cardinals)
Seahawks 2-0 (against Vikings and Cardinals)
In the case of the Lions vs. Seahawks, the first tiebreaker that we would look at is Win/Loss Percentage in Common Games, as there are 4 games that the 2 teams have in common ...
The Vikings, the Cardinals, the Buccaneers, and the Giants. As of this moment, the Hawks are leading this tiebreaker by virtue of their win over the Cardinals back in Week 7 (and the Lions subsequent loss to the Cards in Week 2). The Lions face Tampa Bay in Week 12 and the Giants later on in Week 16. The Seahawks, on the other hand, have the Vikings this coming weekend at home and the Giants on the road on December 15th for the last of their 10am starts.
If it did somehow come down to the Lions being tied with the Seahawks, winning both of the Vikings and Giants games (or a Seahawks win against either and a Lions loss to either Tampa Bay or the Giants) would seal the deal. If not, we would hop down to the next tiebreaker …
Tiebreaker #4 – Strength of Victory …
Lions Strength of Victory (as of 11/11/13) … 24-31 (.436)
Seahawks Strength of Victory (as of 11/11/13) … 30-51 (.3703)
At this moment in time, the Lions would win the tie if it came down to Strength of Victory (though obviously the strength of victory will change by that point). Of the 5 top teams in the NFC profiled here, the Lions have the easiest strength of schedule remaining (.349), so in theory 13-3 isn’t out of the realm of possibility at all. Still, I would contend that it’s highly unlikely that this scenario would actually play out, as I just honestly don’t see Seattle losing to either the Vikings or Giants ... nor New Orleans and San Francisco BOTH having worse records than Detroit. So in reality, the Lions probably aren’t much of a factor at this point for the #1 seed.
Carolina Panthers (6-3)
Week 1 – vs. Seattle Seahawks [9-1] (Loss 7-12)
Week 2 – at Buffalo Bills [3-7] (Loss 23-24)
Week 3 – vs. New York Giants [3-6] (Win 38-0)
Week 4 – BYE
Week 5 – at Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (Loss 6-22)
Week 6 – at Minnesota Vikings [2-7] (Win 35-10)
Week 7 – vs. St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Win 30-15)
Week 8 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers [0-8] (Win 31-13)
Week 9 – vs. Atlanta Falcons [2-7] (Win 34-10)
Week 10 – at San Francisco 49ers [6-3] (Win 10-9)
Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 11 – vs. New England Patriots [7-2]
Week 12 – at Miami Dolphins [4-4]
Week 13 – vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [0-8]
Week 14 – at New Orleans Saints [7-2]
Week 15 – vs. New York Jets [5-4]
Week 16 – vs. New Orleans Saints [7-2]
Week 17 – at Atlanta Falcons [2-7]
Record of Remaining Opponents 32-29 (.5245)
Strength of Victory … 17-37 (.3148)
In this scenario, let’s assume that Carolina wins out the rest of its games while Seattle ends up losing to both San Francisco and New Orleans. So, both clubs would come in at 13-3. In addition, let’s say that San Francisco and New Orleans each finish 12-4 or 11-5. Here’s how the tiebreakers would work …
Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs) …
Seattle Won 12-7 in Week 1
This scenario is pretty straightforward. Because Seattle won against the Panthers clear back in Week 1, they would win the tiebreaker and be the #1 Seed. Who would have believed that a win clear back in Week 1 could be as significant as it appears it’s going to be?
San Francisco 49ers (6-3)
Week 1 – vs. Green Bay Packers [5-4] (Win 34-28)
Week 2 – at Seattle Seahawks [9-1] (Loss 3-29)
Week 3 – vs. Indianapolis Colts [6-3] (Loss 7-27)
Week 4 – at St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Win 35-11)
Week 5 – vs. Houston Texans [2-7] (Win 34-3)
Week 6 – vs. Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (Win 32-20)
Week 7 – at Tennessee Titans [4-5] (Win 31-17)
Week 8 – at Jacksonville Jaguars [1-8] (Win 42-10)
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – vs. Carolina Panthers [6-3] (Loss 9-10)
Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 11 – at New Orleans Saints [7-2]
Week 12 – at Washington Redskins [3-6]
Week 13 – vs. St. Louis Rams [4-6]
Week 14 – vs. Seattle Seahawks [9-1]
Week 15 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers [0-8]
Week 16 – vs. Atlanta Falcons [2-7]
Week 17 – at Arizona Cardinals [5-4]
Record of Remaining Opponents 30-34 (.4687)
Strength of Victory … 21-34 (.3818)
Because the Seahawks and 49ers are in the same division, a tie in this case would fall under the “To Break a Tie Within a Division” rules, which are as follows …
NFL Tiebreaking Procedures
In this scenario, let’s assume that Seattle loses BOTH of its remaining road games (San Francisco and New York), but wins out the rest of its remaining schedule. So, each team would finish up the season 13-3. Additionally, New Orleans, Carolina, and the Lions each finish with records of 12-4 or below.
Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs) …
In this scenario, San Francisco and Seattle would each be 1-1, having won against each other. We move on to the next tiebreaker.
Tiebreaker #2 -- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
49ers … 5-1
Seahawks … 5-1
They would be tied in this scenario, so we move on to the 3rd Tiebreaker …
Tiebreaker #3 – Best Win/Loss Percentage in Common Games …
Again, in this scenario we’ll assume that the 49ers win out the remainder of their games. Here are the games that the 49ers and Seahawks Played in Common along with their record against each …
49ers …
Carolina … Loss
Indianapolis … Loss
Houston … Win
Tennessee … Win
Jacksonville … Win
New Orleans …Win
Tampa Bay … Win
49ers Record … 5-2
Seahawks …
Carolina … Win
Indianapolis … Loss
Houston … Win
Tennessee … Win
Jacksonville … Win
New Orleans …Win
Tampa Bay … Win
Seahawks Record … 6-1
Because the 49ers lost to the Panthers yesterday (and the Seahawks beat them), Seattle would win home field advantage in this scenario. The Panthers did the Seahawks a major favor.
So, even if Seattle ends up losing to San Francisco, the Seahawks would STILL win the #1 Seed even if they end up tied with them.
One game to really keep an eye on in particular if you hadn’t already noticed – next weekend the 49ers take on the Saints in the Superdome down in New Orleans. Either way, win or lose, that game will benefit the Seahawks. And speaking of the Saints, we’ll end by taking a look at them …
New Orleans Saints (7-2)
Week 1 – vs. Atlanta Falcons [2-7] (Win 23-17)
Week 2 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers [0-8] (Win 16-14)
Week 3 – vs. Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (Win 31-7)
Week 4 – vs. Miami Dolphins [4-4] (Win 38-17)
Week 5 – at Chicago Bears [5-4] (Win 26-18)
Week 6 – at New England Patriots [7-2] (Loss 27-30)
Week 7 – BYE
Week 8 – vs. Buffalo Bills [3-7] (Win 35-17)
Week 9 – at New York Jets [5-4] (Loss 20-26)
Week 10 -- vs. Dallas Cowboys [5-5] (Win 49-17)
Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 11 – vs. San Francisco 49ers [6-3]
Week 12 – at Atlanta Falcons [2-7]
Week 13 – at Seattle Seahawks [9-1]
Week 14 – vs. Carolina Panthers [6-3]
Week 15 – at St. Louis Rams [4-6]
Week 16 – at Carolina Panthers [6-3]
Week 17 -- vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [0-8]
Record of Remaining Opponents 33-31 (.5156)
Strength of Victory … 24-39 (.3809)
In this scenario, let’s assume that the Saints win out the remainder of their games (which obviously would mean beating Seattle) … and the Seahawks win out the remainder of their games (minus that loss to New Orleans).
So in that case, each of the teams would finish at 14-2. Here is how that would go …
Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs)…
This scenario is very clear. If Seattle loses to the Saints (even if they win the rest of their games), the Saints would end up with the #1 Seed. If Seattle wins and they end up tied with the Saints, the Seahawks would get the #1 Seed.
That Saints game on Monday Night, December 2nd at Century Link Field is the biggest game remaining of the Seahawks schedule – at this point in fact, the only one that we could honestly call a “Must Win.”
After last night’s convincing win over the Cowboys (49-17), going 7-0 doesn’t sound all that far fetched for this team. BUT … looking at the Saints remaining schedule (see above) reveals why that might be far harder in reality. Over their last 7 games, the Saints face …
4 of the Saints last 7 games are against opponents who at this moment in time are looking like playoff teams. The odds of going 7-0 against that schedule (I would say) are long as in al likelihood there are probably at least 2 losses in there. Of the top 5 teams in the NFC right now, the Saints have the 2nd hardest strength of schedule remaining (.5156).
As we sit right now, your Seattle Seahawks are very much in the catbird seat. With 4 of their last 6 remaining games at home (where they are 22-7 since the start of the Pete Carroll era) and a very mortal Giants team on the road, it looks very promising that the Seahawks will indeed be the ones to swoop away with the NFC’s #1 Seed. Feather your nest with that!
Exploring Playoff Scenarios
A 33-10 win against the Falcons, coupled with a 49er Loss to the Panthers made Sunday and awesome day for your Seattle Seahawks in their quest for the #1 Playoff Seed. Seattle is in pole position with a 2 lap lead over the Saints and a 2 ½ lap lead over the 49ers, Lions, and Panthers.
950 KJR-am’s Mitch Levy often does a “Mr. Playoffs” segment where he examines all the playoff scenarios. We’re going to do something similar here, taking a look at a few scenarios for the Seahawks top competitors and where they all stand as far as the #1 Seed is concerned at this moment in time. We’ll take a look at each of the top 4 teams and examine the possibilities – assuming that the each team somehow ends the season tied with the Seahawks. Before we get in to that though, it’s incumbent to lay out how ties are broken. Now, someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but it’s my understanding that according to the NFL’s official website that any potential ties for the #1 seed would be broken using the Wild Card tiebreakers. On the league’s website, we read …
To determine home-field priority among division-titlists, apply Wild Card tie-breakers.
In other words, if a situation ever presented itself where 2 teams in the same conference (who were not in the same division) ever tied for the conference’s best record, we would use the Wild Card tie breakers in order to decide who ends up with the #1 Seed. The NFL’s official Wild Card tie breakers are as follows …
Source:1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.
NFL Tiebreaking Procedures
Keep those in mind as we move forward. Now, let’s get going by taking a look at each of the Seahawks 4 top competitors at this moment in time …
Detroit Lions (6-3)
Week 1 – vs. Minnesota Vikings [2-7] (Win 34-24)
Week 2— at Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (Loss 21-25)
Week 3 – at Washington Redskins [3-6] (Win 27-20)
Week 4 – vs. Chicago Bears [5-4] (Win 40-32)
Week 5 – at Green Bay Packers [5-4] (Loss 9-22)
Week 6 – at Cleveland Browns [4-5] (Win 31-17)
Week 7 – vs. Cincinnati Bengals [6-4] (Loss 24-27)
Week 8 – vs. Dallas Cowboys [5-5] (Win 31-30)
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – at Chicago Bears [5-4] (Win 21-19)
Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 11 – at Pittsburgh Steelers [3-6]
Week 12 – vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [0-8]
Week 13 – vs. Green Bay Packers [5-4]
Week 14 – at Philadelphia Eagles [5-5]
Week 15 – vs. Baltimore Ravens [4-5]
Week 16 – vs. New York Giants [3-6]
Week 17 – at Minnesota Vikings [2-7]
Record of Remaining Opponents 22-41 (.349)
Strength of Victory … 24-31 (.436)
In this scenario, we’re going to assume that the Lions win out the rest of their games to get to 13-3 … the Seahawks lose 2 of their remaining 6 to both the 49ers and the Saints … and both the Niners and Saints finish 12-4. [Don’t ask me how or who the Niners or Saints would lose to … just play along for argument’s sake, OK?]
In that scenario, here is how the tie would be broken …
Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs)… NA
Tiebreaker #2 -- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Lions … 11-2
Seahawks … 11-2 (if assuming worst case scenario and losses against both the 49ers and Saints)
Tiebreaker #3 – Best Win/Loss Percentage in Common Games (minimum of 4)…
Lions … 1-1 (against Vikings and Cardinals)
Seahawks 2-0 (against Vikings and Cardinals)
In the case of the Lions vs. Seahawks, the first tiebreaker that we would look at is Win/Loss Percentage in Common Games, as there are 4 games that the 2 teams have in common ...
The Vikings, the Cardinals, the Buccaneers, and the Giants. As of this moment, the Hawks are leading this tiebreaker by virtue of their win over the Cardinals back in Week 7 (and the Lions subsequent loss to the Cards in Week 2). The Lions face Tampa Bay in Week 12 and the Giants later on in Week 16. The Seahawks, on the other hand, have the Vikings this coming weekend at home and the Giants on the road on December 15th for the last of their 10am starts.
If it did somehow come down to the Lions being tied with the Seahawks, winning both of the Vikings and Giants games (or a Seahawks win against either and a Lions loss to either Tampa Bay or the Giants) would seal the deal. If not, we would hop down to the next tiebreaker …
Tiebreaker #4 – Strength of Victory …
Lions Strength of Victory (as of 11/11/13) … 24-31 (.436)
Seahawks Strength of Victory (as of 11/11/13) … 30-51 (.3703)
At this moment in time, the Lions would win the tie if it came down to Strength of Victory (though obviously the strength of victory will change by that point). Of the 5 top teams in the NFC profiled here, the Lions have the easiest strength of schedule remaining (.349), so in theory 13-3 isn’t out of the realm of possibility at all. Still, I would contend that it’s highly unlikely that this scenario would actually play out, as I just honestly don’t see Seattle losing to either the Vikings or Giants ... nor New Orleans and San Francisco BOTH having worse records than Detroit. So in reality, the Lions probably aren’t much of a factor at this point for the #1 seed.
Carolina Panthers (6-3)
Week 1 – vs. Seattle Seahawks [9-1] (Loss 7-12)
Week 2 – at Buffalo Bills [3-7] (Loss 23-24)
Week 3 – vs. New York Giants [3-6] (Win 38-0)
Week 4 – BYE
Week 5 – at Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (Loss 6-22)
Week 6 – at Minnesota Vikings [2-7] (Win 35-10)
Week 7 – vs. St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Win 30-15)
Week 8 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers [0-8] (Win 31-13)
Week 9 – vs. Atlanta Falcons [2-7] (Win 34-10)
Week 10 – at San Francisco 49ers [6-3] (Win 10-9)
Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 11 – vs. New England Patriots [7-2]
Week 12 – at Miami Dolphins [4-4]
Week 13 – vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [0-8]
Week 14 – at New Orleans Saints [7-2]
Week 15 – vs. New York Jets [5-4]
Week 16 – vs. New Orleans Saints [7-2]
Week 17 – at Atlanta Falcons [2-7]
Record of Remaining Opponents 32-29 (.5245)
Strength of Victory … 17-37 (.3148)
In this scenario, let’s assume that Carolina wins out the rest of its games while Seattle ends up losing to both San Francisco and New Orleans. So, both clubs would come in at 13-3. In addition, let’s say that San Francisco and New Orleans each finish 12-4 or 11-5. Here’s how the tiebreakers would work …
Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs) …
Seattle Won 12-7 in Week 1
This scenario is pretty straightforward. Because Seattle won against the Panthers clear back in Week 1, they would win the tiebreaker and be the #1 Seed. Who would have believed that a win clear back in Week 1 could be as significant as it appears it’s going to be?
San Francisco 49ers (6-3)
Week 1 – vs. Green Bay Packers [5-4] (Win 34-28)
Week 2 – at Seattle Seahawks [9-1] (Loss 3-29)
Week 3 – vs. Indianapolis Colts [6-3] (Loss 7-27)
Week 4 – at St. Louis Rams [4-6] (Win 35-11)
Week 5 – vs. Houston Texans [2-7] (Win 34-3)
Week 6 – vs. Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (Win 32-20)
Week 7 – at Tennessee Titans [4-5] (Win 31-17)
Week 8 – at Jacksonville Jaguars [1-8] (Win 42-10)
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – vs. Carolina Panthers [6-3] (Loss 9-10)
Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 11 – at New Orleans Saints [7-2]
Week 12 – at Washington Redskins [3-6]
Week 13 – vs. St. Louis Rams [4-6]
Week 14 – vs. Seattle Seahawks [9-1]
Week 15 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers [0-8]
Week 16 – vs. Atlanta Falcons [2-7]
Week 17 – at Arizona Cardinals [5-4]
Record of Remaining Opponents 30-34 (.4687)
Strength of Victory … 21-34 (.3818)
Because the Seahawks and 49ers are in the same division, a tie in this case would fall under the “To Break a Tie Within a Division” rules, which are as follows …
Source:If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.
Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss
NFL Tiebreaking Procedures
In this scenario, let’s assume that Seattle loses BOTH of its remaining road games (San Francisco and New York), but wins out the rest of its remaining schedule. So, each team would finish up the season 13-3. Additionally, New Orleans, Carolina, and the Lions each finish with records of 12-4 or below.
Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs) …
In this scenario, San Francisco and Seattle would each be 1-1, having won against each other. We move on to the next tiebreaker.
Tiebreaker #2 -- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
49ers … 5-1
Seahawks … 5-1
They would be tied in this scenario, so we move on to the 3rd Tiebreaker …
Tiebreaker #3 – Best Win/Loss Percentage in Common Games …
Again, in this scenario we’ll assume that the 49ers win out the remainder of their games. Here are the games that the 49ers and Seahawks Played in Common along with their record against each …
49ers …
Carolina … Loss
Indianapolis … Loss
Houston … Win
Tennessee … Win
Jacksonville … Win
New Orleans …Win
Tampa Bay … Win
49ers Record … 5-2
Seahawks …
Carolina … Win
Indianapolis … Loss
Houston … Win
Tennessee … Win
Jacksonville … Win
New Orleans …Win
Tampa Bay … Win
Seahawks Record … 6-1
Because the 49ers lost to the Panthers yesterday (and the Seahawks beat them), Seattle would win home field advantage in this scenario. The Panthers did the Seahawks a major favor.
So, even if Seattle ends up losing to San Francisco, the Seahawks would STILL win the #1 Seed even if they end up tied with them.
One game to really keep an eye on in particular if you hadn’t already noticed – next weekend the 49ers take on the Saints in the Superdome down in New Orleans. Either way, win or lose, that game will benefit the Seahawks. And speaking of the Saints, we’ll end by taking a look at them …
New Orleans Saints (7-2)
Week 1 – vs. Atlanta Falcons [2-7] (Win 23-17)
Week 2 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers [0-8] (Win 16-14)
Week 3 – vs. Arizona Cardinals [5-4] (Win 31-7)
Week 4 – vs. Miami Dolphins [4-4] (Win 38-17)
Week 5 – at Chicago Bears [5-4] (Win 26-18)
Week 6 – at New England Patriots [7-2] (Loss 27-30)
Week 7 – BYE
Week 8 – vs. Buffalo Bills [3-7] (Win 35-17)
Week 9 – at New York Jets [5-4] (Loss 20-26)
Week 10 -- vs. Dallas Cowboys [5-5] (Win 49-17)
Remaining Schedule (with current record)
Week 11 – vs. San Francisco 49ers [6-3]
Week 12 – at Atlanta Falcons [2-7]
Week 13 – at Seattle Seahawks [9-1]
Week 14 – vs. Carolina Panthers [6-3]
Week 15 – at St. Louis Rams [4-6]
Week 16 – at Carolina Panthers [6-3]
Week 17 -- vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [0-8]
Record of Remaining Opponents 33-31 (.5156)
Strength of Victory … 24-39 (.3809)
In this scenario, let’s assume that the Saints win out the remainder of their games (which obviously would mean beating Seattle) … and the Seahawks win out the remainder of their games (minus that loss to New Orleans).
So in that case, each of the teams would finish at 14-2. Here is how that would go …
Tiebreaker #1 – Head to Head (Best Win/Loss% Between 2 Clubs)…
This scenario is very clear. If Seattle loses to the Saints (even if they win the rest of their games), the Saints would end up with the #1 Seed. If Seattle wins and they end up tied with the Saints, the Seahawks would get the #1 Seed.
That Saints game on Monday Night, December 2nd at Century Link Field is the biggest game remaining of the Seahawks schedule – at this point in fact, the only one that we could honestly call a “Must Win.”
After last night’s convincing win over the Cowboys (49-17), going 7-0 doesn’t sound all that far fetched for this team. BUT … looking at the Saints remaining schedule (see above) reveals why that might be far harder in reality. Over their last 7 games, the Saints face …
The 49ers (at Home) next week (think that Harbaugh and company won’t be looking to punish somebody after getting embarrassed at home this past Sunday?)
The Seahawks (on the Road) on December 2nd. The Seahawks haven’t lost a home game since December 24, 2011 and are19-8 all time on Monday Night Football – best winning percentage in the history of the league (.708) on MNF.
The Panthers TWICE (on December 8th and two weeks later on the 22nd). San Francisco found out yesterday that the Seahawks 12-7 victory on the road was a fairly monumental feat.
The Rams (on the Road) on December 15th. The Colts weren’t feeling very Lucky after a 38-8 thrashing by the Rams this past weekend. They found out first hand St. Louis is deceptively good.
4 of the Saints last 7 games are against opponents who at this moment in time are looking like playoff teams. The odds of going 7-0 against that schedule (I would say) are long as in al likelihood there are probably at least 2 losses in there. Of the top 5 teams in the NFC right now, the Saints have the 2nd hardest strength of schedule remaining (.5156).
As we sit right now, your Seattle Seahawks are very much in the catbird seat. With 4 of their last 6 remaining games at home (where they are 22-7 since the start of the Pete Carroll era) and a very mortal Giants team on the road, it looks very promising that the Seahawks will indeed be the ones to swoop away with the NFC’s #1 Seed. Feather your nest with that!