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Week 15: Seahawks-Giants Game Preview ...
5 Keys to the Seahawks Victory Against the New York Giants …
What a difference a week makes. After blowing the doors off one of the best teams in the NFL (the New Orleans Saints), the Hawks flap down to San Francisco last weekend and come back with singed wings. While Seattle fans are naturally a bit disappointed in the with coming out of San Francisco with a 19-17 Loss, it should be pointed out that it took the 49ers until the very last minute on their own home turf to eek out a win against the division leading Seahawks. With the sting of a loss still fresh in their minds, the Hawks look to take out their frustrations on somebody this weekend. And lo and behold, the Schedule Gods have blessed Seattle with a therapeutic rag doll to whack around -- the New York Giants. To say the Giants season hasn’t gone according to expectations would be a vast understatement, losing 8 games this season including 6 in a row to start the season. Like the Seahawks, this past weekend was a difficult one of the Giants as well, getting pasted by the Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium 37-14, a loss that officially eliminated them from Postseason eligibility. This has team that has had a lot go wrong for it this year … but lame duck teams at home can be a dangerous thing for those who overlook them. Besides personal pride, jobs are on the line for next year, so teams like this can jump up and bite you. Will the Giants roll over … and rise up and surprise? Here are 5 Keys to Victory to ensure that the Seahawks will be the ones laying the wood on Sunday …
Before we get to our keys though, let’s take a look at some of the numbers that pertain to this game. Here is the new look chart that shows Offensive and Defensive statistics for both teams ...
[tdo=4]Giants vs. Seahawks Offense-Defense Comparison …[/tdo]
And now, on to Key to Victory #1 ...
Key #1: Single Point Perspective …
Let’s begin our look at the Giants Offense by checking out a breakdown of their run to pass ratio this season ...
311 Rushing Attempts … 40.44% of Offense
458 Pass Attempts … 59.56% of Offense
769 Total Attempts
As you can see from the numbers above, though the Giants clearly pass the ball far more than they run, 40% of their offense has still come via the ground. The problem is, they haven’t been very good at it. As you can see by the numbers above, though they’ve scored 10 touchdowns this year, this is one of the worst run offenses in the National Football League.
And this week they got even worse ...
On Tuesday, the Giants ended up placing RB Brandon Jacobs put on IR with knee and hamstring issues. Jacobs was the 2nd leading rusher on this team (238 Yards and 4 TD) and became now the 6th player to be placed on IR by the Giants (joining safety Stevie Brown, linebacker Dan Connor, fullback Henry Hynoski, cornerback Aaron Ross and right guard Chris Snee).
In his stead, the Seahawks are sure to see a lot more of RB Andre Brown, the 5th year back out of North Carolina State and the team’s leading rusher (424 Yards). SInce returning from a broken leg he suffered at the end of the Preseason (the 2nd time in 2 years he’s done that), Brown has been fairly productive in the 5 games he’s played, twice rushing for over 100 yards. That said, Brown has had a tendency at times to to be a bit indecisive -- to dance around a bit rather than hit the hole immediately, so if Hawk defenders can quickly plug up their gaps, we could see a lot of tackles for loss in this game.
And we might see a lot of dancing around behind the line of scrimmage anyway. RG Chris Snee was the Giants’ best offensive lineman (a four-time Pro Bowler) and the impact of his absence (he was shut down because of a surgically repaired hip) has definitely been felt. According to Football Outsiders, this offensive line has been one of the worst in football this season ...
Offensive Line rankings (according to Football Outsiders) [Week 14] …
Run Blocking … #28
Pass Blocking … #26
Source:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol
If the Seahawks are able to shut down this running attack (which it looks like they should be able to do) and get ahead by a couple of scores early, then the Giants Offense suddenly becomes 1 dimensional and Seahawk rushers can pretty much pin their ears back and go after Eli Manning. With LT Will Beatty having given up 11 sacks on the season and sporting one of the worst run blocking efficiency rates in the NFL, Giant Offensive lineman could feel the wind of guys like Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril whistling past them.
We all know though that Seattle’s Defense has at times allowed opposing runners to have big runs against them. Last week, it was Frank Gore’s 51 yard romp that proved to be the straw that broke the camel’s back. Take away that 1 run, and the Seahawks held Gore to just 59 Yards on 16 Carries (3.69 Yards/Carry).
In Week 9 against the Buccaneers, Mike James rushed for 158 yards on 28 carries (5.6 yards/carry average). However, if you go back and analyze the game logs a little more closely, you’ll find that Seattle was burned by a just few big plays as well ...
1st Quarter -- James runs for 21 yards on a 1st and 15.
3rd Quarter -- Skye Dawson runs for 14 yards on 1st and 10.
3rd Quarter -- James runs for 18 yards on 1st and 10.
3rd Quarter -- James runs for 17 yards on 2nd and 7.
Beyond those 4 runs though … here is how Seattle did in that game …
135 Rushing Yards Allowed on 34 Carries (3.97 Yards/Carry)
The week prior in St. Louis, the Seahawks allowed Zac Stacy to run for 134 yards on 26 carries (5.2 yards/carry average). Again though, it was a few big plays that made all the difference as well …
1st Quarter -- Stacy runs for 13 yards on 2nd and 10
2nd Quarter -- Daryl Richardson runs for 14 yards on 1st and 10
2nd Quarter -- Stacy runs for 13 yards on 1st and 5.
2nd Quarter -- Stacy runs for 13 yards on 2nd and 10
3rd Quarter -- Chris Givens runs for 16 yards on 1st and 10.
4th Quarter -- Stacy runs for 18 yards on 2nd and 2.
Outside of those runs, Seattle allowed 113 yards rushing on 31 carries (3.65 yards/carry)
Runs like that are about getting caught with your pants down. Seattle has got to do a better job of gap control and of stopping big plays on the ground. If they do that and make the Giants 1 dimensional, the Hawks could put an end to this game real quick. And that takes us to Key to Victory #2 ...
Key #2: Next Manning Up …
If there were to be an NFL award for the most disappointing player of the year … Eli Manning would probably win that one in a landslide. Here are his numbers on the year. In many ways, they speak for themselves …
[tdo=2]Eli Manning’s 2013 Statistics[/tdo]
The numbers don’t lie -- Manning has been awful this season. Is this seriously the same Manning who is a 2 time Super Bowl MVP? It’s hard to believe that Peyton’s younger brother is actually tied for the league lead in interceptions, but that’s exactly where he finds himself heading in to this week’s matchup against one of the top ball-hawking defenses in the league. Unbelievably, the New York Giants have turned the ball over 34 times this year -- MOST in the NFL this season. And to further add to their misery, the Giants get the joy of facing the Legion of Boom this Sunday, who are tied for 2nd in the league in takeaways (28). That is a bad combination if you’re a Giants fan. That said, this is a QB who has won Super Bowls in the past and still has a lot of weapons at his disposal ...
[tdo=8](2013) Giants Top Receiving Targets[/tdo]
Victor Cruz … is after all, still Victor Cruz. Hakeem Nicks … is still Hakeem Nicks. Those two guys (up until this year) have formed one of the most deadly receiving tandems in the NFL. And when you add to that mixture a player like Rueben Randle (who is tied with Anquan Boldin with 15 receptions of 20 yards or more) and Brandon Myers (who has 38 catches and 4 TD’s on the year -- very good numbers for a tight end) … you find yourself scratching your head and bit and trying to figure out just how it is that the Giants are 5-8. Given that this game is at MetLife Stadium in New York, you’d think that these guys could give Richard Sherman and the rest of the Legion of Boom some issues. According to ProFootball Focus, Victor Cruz has lined up inside on 69% of his routes and has the 3rd most slot yards of any WR in the league. That means that Jeremy Lane is going to be seeing a lot of action. But Lane was certainly up to the task last week against the 49ers, deflecting 3 passes and allowing only 1 pass to be completed in 4 targets. The Hawks are going to need another huge game from Jeremy Lane on Sunday.
Let’s take a more in depth look at Eli’s season thus far though ...
[tdo=10]Eli Manning’s 2013 Statistics (Weeks 1-14)[/tdo]
Did you happen to notice a correlation between Eli’s performances and the strength of opponent this year? In case you didn’t, let me go ahead and highlight it for you by taking a look at their 5 wins this season ...
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-14-dvoa-ratings
As you can see, the Giants have yet to beat a top defense this year, as the only ones they have won against have poor overall defenses. They have lost and lost handily every time they have faced a top defense this year: the Panthers (38-0), the Chiefs (31-7), and the Broncos (41-23). That bodes well for an angry Seattle team that will be looking for a whipping boy.
Key #3: Many Happy Returns …
We haven’t talked a whole lot about Special Teams this year, but the battle for field position is always of crucial importance -- especially on the road.
While the Seahawks haven’t done particularly all that well on kickoffs this year (their 20.5 yards/return ranks only 27th), the Giants have actually done worse, as they average only 19.9 yards/kickoff return (30th in the NFL).
And while that may be a push in terms of advantage for the Seahawks in terms of the field position battle in that arena, when it comes to the punting game that’s an entirely different story.
Coming in to this Sunday’s contest, the Seahawks have given up a mind blowingly low 15 yards all year long on punts. In 13 games, they have a mere 1.2 yards per punt return.
The Giants on the other hand … are a completely different story. Coming in to this contest on Sunday, the Giants have given up whopping 509 Yards (nearly 40 yards per game) on Punt Returns this year … and are allowing 14.5 Yards/Punt Return this year (3rd Most in the league).
Golden Tate is averaging 9.4 yards/punt return this year (13th in the league) and has racked up the 2nd most punt return yardage this season (467) hasn’t broken one for a touchdown yet this season. Given the way that the Giants have been hemorrhaging yardage, it’s entirely possible that we see one come Sunday.
Key #4: Don’t be the Beanstalk ...
Though their offense has been less than stellar, the Giants Defense has been a completely different story. According to ProFootball Focus ...
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/12/13/3tfo-seahawks-giants-week-15/
For a team like the Seahawks that prides itself on running the ball, that’s not good news. Russell Wilson uses play action 34.7% of the time that he drops back to pass (most in the league), so when Seattle is able to establish the run game, they are that much more dangerous on offense. Though very few are talking about it, the Offensive Line and their run blocking has been a concern this year. Marshawn Lynch has had only three 100+ rushing games this season. While it’s easy (and quite correct) to point to the injuries that Seattle has suffered along that O-Line as having been a major factor as to why the run game hasn’t gotten going, the Seahawks have now had 3 games in a row with that line intact … and still no 100 yard rushing day for Lynch.
Marshawn Lynch ranks 5th in the league with 1,042 yards rushing this year, but a lot of that has come via his own efforts, as he has broken more tackles than any other back in the league. His offensive line on the other hand? According to PFF, the only Seattle lineman they have with a positive grade is Michael Bowie. That’s a bad sign. In fact, they have James Carpenter and J.R. Sweezy with a combined run block grade of -19.7 -- among one of the worst guard tandems in the NFL. Max Unger was a full participant in practice on Friday and is listed as Probable for this game, which is a good thing as Seattle is going to need his leadership this weekend.
I won’t go so far as to say that if the Seahawks fail to establish the run on Sunday that they’re in danger of losing this game. I will say though that if this Seattle team has any true aspirations of getting to and winning the Super Bowl, they’re going to need the Beast to power them there.
The Seahawks though, could be catching a break in that department though, as DE Jason Pierre-Paul is out with a shoulder issue. That means that 30 year old Mathias Kiwanuka gets the nod in his place. Despite the fact that Kiwanuka has 4 sacks on the season, PFF has him ranked 49th out of a total of 50 defensive ends. They note that he has trouble generating consistent pressure and that he has really struggled to stop the run (run grade of -6.4). In addition, while he’s listed as Probable for this game, DT Cullen Jenkins has been limited in practice this week with a shin and quad issue. Though Justin Tuck is one of the very best defensive ends in the NFL, he certainly can’t do it all on his own. Seattle is catching the Giants at the perfect time, as they are a banged up and demoralized team at this point in the season. If there was ever a game we could point to as being a possible break out game for Lynch and the Seattle running attack, this one would probably be it. For the long terms goals of this team, let’s hope that we see just that.
Key #5: Nail the Dress Rehearsal …
Sunday could be a most interesting day for Russell Wilson and company, as it likely marks the last road game they will play this year. If the Seahawks were to play on the road again this season, it would be at MetLife Stadium in the Super Bowl come February. So, this game presents a unique opportunity of sorts for the team to get used to the town and the stadium in the event that actually comes to pass. And when it comes to passing, Russell Wilson has been one of the best in the NFL this season …
107.7 QB Rating … 2nd Best in the NFL
100.6 QB Rating on Road … 4th Best in the NFL
8.8 Yards/Pass Avg … Best in the NFL
60% Completion Rate on Deep Passes … Best in the NFL
34 Big Play Passes (25 yards or more) … 4th Most in the NFL
64.8% Pass Completion Percentage …6th Best in the NFL
24 Passing TD’s … Tied for 9th Most (which is amazing considering Seattle has the 2nd fewest pass attempts in the league)
Russell Wilson is difficult for any defense to effectively contain. That said, the Giants actually have been fairly good against the pass all season long. Though they rank next to last in Sacks (25), they are tied for 11th in Passing TD’s Allowed (20), have 12 Interceptions on the season (tied 16th), are 15th in QB Rating Allowed (84.5), and have allowed only 37 passes of 20 yards or more to be completed against them (10th Best).
So, on paper, they aren’t that bad of a defense. And according to Football Outsiders they’re not, as they have them ranked 10th in terms of overall defense (-6.8%) -- tied with Kansas City incidentally.
While Seattle is obviously going to catch a break with DE Jason Pierre-Paul out with a shoulder injury, they’re still going to have to find a way to deal with DE Justin Tuck, one of the better defensive ends in the NFL. Tuck comes in to this game with 49 Tackles, 8.5 Sacks, and 6 Tackles for Loss, showing that he is still a force to be reckoned with. If he ends up lining up on the left side, Breno Giacomini will have all he can handle. That’s a matchup to keep an eye on.
The Giants secondary has talent, but certainly some holes at this point in the season. SS Antrel Rolle (9 Tackles, 2.0 Sacks, 1 TFL, 10 PD, 5 INT) and RCB Prince Amukamara (72 Tackles, 9 PD, 1 INT, 4 TFL) are two of the best at their respective positions in the NFL. Russell Wilson is certainly going to have to be wary of those two. PFF has S Will Hill (undrafted rookie out of Florida) leading the Giants secondary with an overall grade of +9.3 -- he’s been a pleasant surprise for them … while WILL LB Jacquian Williams has a pass grade of +6.2 -- which places him in the top 10 of all 4-3 linebackers in the league. So, New York has some talent back there. As I mentioned above though, they also have some holes. Starting LCB Corey Webster is OUT for this game with an ankle injury. That’s going to force CB Terrell Thomas in to his place … and he sat out Wednesday (as he always does) in order to rest his surgically repaired knee. He was limited in practice all week because of it, so watch for that one. It should be an interesting matchup for Wilson tomorrow for sure.
Bold Prediction …
Although people both locally and nationally have joked that the Seahawks will be more focused on finding hotels for themselves for February than on the game itself … there’s no way I see that actually being the case. This is an angry football team that comes in very upset for having lost in San Francisco. Justin Tuck certainly knows that this is a team to be wary of, as he told reporters this week: "The last thing you want to be is embarrassed. And this is a team that, if you're not ready to play, they will embarrass you ... and then laugh at you about it." The Giants, on the other hand, come in to this game a real whipped puppy. If a team comes in and gets a lead on them early, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the crowd get on them and for these guys fold up their tents for the day. This one has all the looks of a laugher and coming off a loss, I’d look for the Hawks to be the ones doing the laughing at the end of the day. Marshawn Lynch finally goes over 100 yards … the Legion of Boom makes Eli and the offense cry uncle … and Wilson stands alone atop the podium with his 23rd win, the most of any QB over his first 2 years in the NFL. Let’s call it …
Seahawks 38
Giants 10
5 Keys to the Seahawks Victory Against the New York Giants …
What a difference a week makes. After blowing the doors off one of the best teams in the NFL (the New Orleans Saints), the Hawks flap down to San Francisco last weekend and come back with singed wings. While Seattle fans are naturally a bit disappointed in the with coming out of San Francisco with a 19-17 Loss, it should be pointed out that it took the 49ers until the very last minute on their own home turf to eek out a win against the division leading Seahawks. With the sting of a loss still fresh in their minds, the Hawks look to take out their frustrations on somebody this weekend. And lo and behold, the Schedule Gods have blessed Seattle with a therapeutic rag doll to whack around -- the New York Giants. To say the Giants season hasn’t gone according to expectations would be a vast understatement, losing 8 games this season including 6 in a row to start the season. Like the Seahawks, this past weekend was a difficult one of the Giants as well, getting pasted by the Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium 37-14, a loss that officially eliminated them from Postseason eligibility. This has team that has had a lot go wrong for it this year … but lame duck teams at home can be a dangerous thing for those who overlook them. Besides personal pride, jobs are on the line for next year, so teams like this can jump up and bite you. Will the Giants roll over … and rise up and surprise? Here are 5 Keys to Victory to ensure that the Seahawks will be the ones laying the wood on Sunday …
Before we get to our keys though, let’s take a look at some of the numbers that pertain to this game. Here is the new look chart that shows Offensive and Defensive statistics for both teams ...
| Giants Off. Category/NFL Rank | Seahawks Def. Category/NFL Rank | Seahawks Off. Category/NFL Rank | Giants Def. Category/NFL Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 321.7 Yards/Game (25th) | 287.1 Yards/Game Allwd (1st) | 356.6 Yards/Game (12th) | 337.2 Yards/Game Allwd (10th Fewest) |
| 19.3 Points Scored/Game (28th) | 15.8 Points/Game Allwd (2nd) | 25.7 Points/Game Allwd (10th Fewest) | 27.5 Points Scored/Game (Tied 3rd) |
| 35% on 3rd Downs (Tied 25th) | 38% of 3rd Down Allwd (Tied 16th) | 41% on 3rd Downs (Tied 9th) | 42% of 3rd Downs Allwd (26th) |
| 18 Fumbles (Tied 11th) | 23 Fumbles Caused (Tied 3rd) | 22 Fumbles (Tied 4th Most) | 19 Fumbles Caused (Tied 10th) |
| 311 Rushing Attempts (Tied 24th) | 347 Rush Attempts Against (12th Fewest) | 419 Rushing Attempts (1st) | 361 Rush Att Against (17th Fewest) |
| 1,144 Rushing Yds (27th) | 1,449 Rush Yds Allwd (14th Fewest) | 1,840 Rushing Yards (3rd) | 1,370 Yards/Game Allwd (11th Fewest) |
| 88.0 Rushing Yds/Game (27th) | 111.5 Rush Yds/Game Allwd (14th Fewest) | 141.5 Rushing Yds/Game (3rd) | 105.4 Rush Yds/Game Allwd (11th Fewest) |
| 3 Runs of 20+ Yds (Tied 31st) | 5 Runs of 20+ Yds Allwd (Tied 5th Fewest) | 10 Runs of 20+ Yds (Tied 6th) | 7 Runs of 20+ Yds Allwd (12th Fewest) |
| 10 Rushing TD’s (Tied 17th) | 4 Rushing TD’s Allwd (Tied 3rd Fewest) | 12 Rushing TD’s (Tied 9th) | 9 Rushing TD’s Allwd (Tied 11th Fewest) |
| 68 First Downs (Tied 22nd) | 77 First Downs Allwd (Tied 16th Fewest) | 97 First Downs (Tied 3rd) | 78 First Downs Allwd (Tied 17th Fewest) |
| 7 Rushing Fumbles (Tied 5th) | 7 Rush Fumbles Caused (Tied 6th Most) | 6 Rushing Fumbles (Tied 11th) | 3 Rush Fumbles Caused (Tied 25th) |
| 458 Pass Attempts (20th) | 434 Pass Att Against (25th) | 341 Pass Attempts (31st) | 481 Pass Att Against (9th) |
| 3,038 Passing Yds (16th) | 2,283 Pass Yds Allwd (Fewest) | 2,796 Passing Yards (21st) | 3,013 Pass Yds Allwd (15th Fewest) |
| 233.7 Passing Yds/Game (16th) | 175.6 Pass Yds/Game Allwd (Fewest) | 215.1 Passing Yds/Game (21st) | 231.8 Pass Yds/Game Allwd (15th Fewest) |
| 7.1 Average Yds/Pass (13th) | 5.8 Yds/Pass Att Allwd (Fewest) | 8.8 Average Yds/Pass (1st) | 6.6 Yds/Pass Allwd (6th Fewest) |
| 12.2 Avg. Yds/Reception (Tied 8th) | 10.0 Yds/Reception Allwd (Fewest) | 13.6 Avg Yds/Reception (2nd) | 10.7 Yds/Reception Allwd (5th Fewest) |
| 58.5% Pass Completion (23rd) | 58.3% Pass Comp. Allwd (6th) | 64.8% Pass Completion (6th) | 61.7% Pass Comp. Allwd (20th) |
| 16 Passing TD’s (Tied 25th) | 14 Pass TD’s Allwd (Tied 3rd Fewest) | 24 Passing TD’s (Tied 9th) | 20 Pass TD’s Allwd (Tied 11th Fewest) |
| 47 Passes of 20+ Yds (Tied 10th) | 26 Passes of 20+ Yds Allwd (Fewest) | 47 Passes of 20+ Yds (Tied 10th) | 37 Passes of 20+ Yds Allwd (10th Fewest) |
| 73.1 QB Rating (29th) | 69.4 QB Rating Allwd (1st) | 107.7 QB Rating (2nd) | 84.5 QB Rating (15th) |
| 21 Interceptions Thrown (Tied Most) | 17 Interceptions (Tied 3rd) | 7 Interceptions Thrown (Tied Least) | 12 Interceptions (Tied 16th) |
| 33 Sacks Allowed (Tied 18th) | 36 Sacks (Tied 11th) | 32 Sacks Allowed (Tied 20th) | 25 Sacks (31st) |
| 67 QB Hits Allowed (17th) | NA | 69 QB Hits Allowed (Tied 19th) | NA |
| NA | 68 Passes Defensed (Tied 21st) | NA | 83 Passes Defensed (Tied 9th) |
And now, on to Key to Victory #1 ...
Key #1: Single Point Perspective …
Let’s begin our look at the Giants Offense by checking out a breakdown of their run to pass ratio this season ...
311 Rushing Attempts … 40.44% of Offense
458 Pass Attempts … 59.56% of Offense
769 Total Attempts
As you can see from the numbers above, though the Giants clearly pass the ball far more than they run, 40% of their offense has still come via the ground. The problem is, they haven’t been very good at it. As you can see by the numbers above, though they’ve scored 10 touchdowns this year, this is one of the worst run offenses in the National Football League.
And this week they got even worse ...
On Tuesday, the Giants ended up placing RB Brandon Jacobs put on IR with knee and hamstring issues. Jacobs was the 2nd leading rusher on this team (238 Yards and 4 TD) and became now the 6th player to be placed on IR by the Giants (joining safety Stevie Brown, linebacker Dan Connor, fullback Henry Hynoski, cornerback Aaron Ross and right guard Chris Snee).
In his stead, the Seahawks are sure to see a lot more of RB Andre Brown, the 5th year back out of North Carolina State and the team’s leading rusher (424 Yards). SInce returning from a broken leg he suffered at the end of the Preseason (the 2nd time in 2 years he’s done that), Brown has been fairly productive in the 5 games he’s played, twice rushing for over 100 yards. That said, Brown has had a tendency at times to to be a bit indecisive -- to dance around a bit rather than hit the hole immediately, so if Hawk defenders can quickly plug up their gaps, we could see a lot of tackles for loss in this game.
And we might see a lot of dancing around behind the line of scrimmage anyway. RG Chris Snee was the Giants’ best offensive lineman (a four-time Pro Bowler) and the impact of his absence (he was shut down because of a surgically repaired hip) has definitely been felt. According to Football Outsiders, this offensive line has been one of the worst in football this season ...
Offensive Line rankings (according to Football Outsiders) [Week 14] …
Run Blocking … #28
Pass Blocking … #26
Source:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol
If the Seahawks are able to shut down this running attack (which it looks like they should be able to do) and get ahead by a couple of scores early, then the Giants Offense suddenly becomes 1 dimensional and Seahawk rushers can pretty much pin their ears back and go after Eli Manning. With LT Will Beatty having given up 11 sacks on the season and sporting one of the worst run blocking efficiency rates in the NFL, Giant Offensive lineman could feel the wind of guys like Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril whistling past them.
We all know though that Seattle’s Defense has at times allowed opposing runners to have big runs against them. Last week, it was Frank Gore’s 51 yard romp that proved to be the straw that broke the camel’s back. Take away that 1 run, and the Seahawks held Gore to just 59 Yards on 16 Carries (3.69 Yards/Carry).
In Week 9 against the Buccaneers, Mike James rushed for 158 yards on 28 carries (5.6 yards/carry average). However, if you go back and analyze the game logs a little more closely, you’ll find that Seattle was burned by a just few big plays as well ...
1st Quarter -- James runs for 21 yards on a 1st and 15.
3rd Quarter -- Skye Dawson runs for 14 yards on 1st and 10.
3rd Quarter -- James runs for 18 yards on 1st and 10.
3rd Quarter -- James runs for 17 yards on 2nd and 7.
Beyond those 4 runs though … here is how Seattle did in that game …
135 Rushing Yards Allowed on 34 Carries (3.97 Yards/Carry)
The week prior in St. Louis, the Seahawks allowed Zac Stacy to run for 134 yards on 26 carries (5.2 yards/carry average). Again though, it was a few big plays that made all the difference as well …
1st Quarter -- Stacy runs for 13 yards on 2nd and 10
2nd Quarter -- Daryl Richardson runs for 14 yards on 1st and 10
2nd Quarter -- Stacy runs for 13 yards on 1st and 5.
2nd Quarter -- Stacy runs for 13 yards on 2nd and 10
3rd Quarter -- Chris Givens runs for 16 yards on 1st and 10.
4th Quarter -- Stacy runs for 18 yards on 2nd and 2.
Outside of those runs, Seattle allowed 113 yards rushing on 31 carries (3.65 yards/carry)
Runs like that are about getting caught with your pants down. Seattle has got to do a better job of gap control and of stopping big plays on the ground. If they do that and make the Giants 1 dimensional, the Hawks could put an end to this game real quick. And that takes us to Key to Victory #2 ...
Key #2: Next Manning Up …
If there were to be an NFL award for the most disappointing player of the year … Eli Manning would probably win that one in a landslide. Here are his numbers on the year. In many ways, they speak for themselves …
| Category | NFL Ranking |
|---|---|
| 266 Pass Comp | 16th |
| 454 Pass Att | 16th |
| 58.6 Comp% | Tied 28th |
| 3,254 Yards | 11th |
| 16 TD’s | Tied 18th |
| 20 INT’s | tied 1st |
| 74.2 QB Rating | 33rd |
| 40.4 Total QBR | 29th |
The numbers don’t lie -- Manning has been awful this season. Is this seriously the same Manning who is a 2 time Super Bowl MVP? It’s hard to believe that Peyton’s younger brother is actually tied for the league lead in interceptions, but that’s exactly where he finds himself heading in to this week’s matchup against one of the top ball-hawking defenses in the league. Unbelievably, the New York Giants have turned the ball over 34 times this year -- MOST in the NFL this season. And to further add to their misery, the Giants get the joy of facing the Legion of Boom this Sunday, who are tied for 2nd in the league in takeaways (28). That is a bad combination if you’re a Giants fan. That said, this is a QB who has won Super Bowls in the past and still has a lot of weapons at his disposal ...
| Receiver | Size | Catches | Yards | Yards/Catch | TD’s | #Catches of 20 Yds+ | % of Passing Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR Victor Cruz | 6’0” 204 Lbs | 71 | 973 | 13.7 | 4 | 10 | 25.33% |
| WR Hakeem Nicks | 6’1” 208 Lbs | 49 | 789 | 16.1 | 0 | 13 | 18.78% |
| TE Brandon Myers | 6'3" 256 Lbs | 38 | 423 | 11.1 | 4 | 7 | 8.1% |
| WR Rueben Randle | 6’2” 208 Lbs | 37 | 571 | 15.4 | 6 | 15 | 8.1% |
| RB Andre Brown | 6'0" 227 Lbs | 14 | 80 | 5.7 | 0 | 0 | 4.59% |
| RB Da’Rel Scott | 5'11" 210 Lbs | 11 | 102 | 9.3 | 1 | 2 | 4.15% |
| WR Jerrel Jernigan | 5’8” 189 Lbs | 10 | 92 | 9.2 | 0 | 0 | 3.71% |
| RB Peyton Hillis | 6’2” 250 Lbs | 10 | 66 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 3.28% |
| TE Bear Pascoe | 6’5” 265 Lbs | 9 | 62 | 6.9 | 0 | 0 | 3.49% |
Victor Cruz … is after all, still Victor Cruz. Hakeem Nicks … is still Hakeem Nicks. Those two guys (up until this year) have formed one of the most deadly receiving tandems in the NFL. And when you add to that mixture a player like Rueben Randle (who is tied with Anquan Boldin with 15 receptions of 20 yards or more) and Brandon Myers (who has 38 catches and 4 TD’s on the year -- very good numbers for a tight end) … you find yourself scratching your head and bit and trying to figure out just how it is that the Giants are 5-8. Given that this game is at MetLife Stadium in New York, you’d think that these guys could give Richard Sherman and the rest of the Legion of Boom some issues. According to ProFootball Focus, Victor Cruz has lined up inside on 69% of his routes and has the 3rd most slot yards of any WR in the league. That means that Jeremy Lane is going to be seeing a lot of action. But Lane was certainly up to the task last week against the 49ers, deflecting 3 passes and allowing only 1 pass to be completed in 4 targets. The Hawks are going to need another huge game from Jeremy Lane on Sunday.
Let’s take a more in depth look at Eli’s season thus far though ...
| Week | Opponent | Opp. Def DVOA (Football Outsiders) | Comp. | Att. | Comp% | Yards | TD’s | INT’s | QB Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (9/8) | LOSS at Cowboys | 13.1% (30th) | 27 | 42 | 64.3% | 450 | 4 | 3 | 102.3 |
| 2 (9/15) | LOSS vs Broncos | -.8% (16th) | 28 | 49 | 57.1% | 362 | 1 | 4 | 53.3 |
| 3 (9/22) | LOSS at Panthers | -15.2% (3rd) | 12 | 23 | 52.2% | 119 | 0 | 1 | 49.0 |
| 4 (9/29) | LOSS at Chiefs | -6.8% (9th) | 18 | 37 | 48.6% | 217 | 1 | 1 | 64.8 |
| 5 (10/6) | LOSS vs Eagles | 5.6% (22nd) | 24 | 52 | 46.2% | 334 | 2 | 3 | 56.1 |
| 6 (10/10) | LOSS at Bears | 4.3% (19th) | 14 | 26 | 53.8% | 239 | 1 | 3 | 58.5 |
| 7 (10/21) | WIN vs Vikings | 8.7% (27th) | 23 | 39 | 59.0% | 200 | 1 | 0 | 81.1 |
| 8 (10/27) | WIN at Eagles | 5.6% (22nd) | 25 | 39 | 64.1% | 246 | 0 | 0 | 81.8 |
| 10 (11/10) | WIN at Raiders | 6.8% (24th) | 12 | 22 | 54.5% | 140 | 1 | 1 | 70.3 |
| 11 (11/17) | WIN vs. Packers | 13.4% (31st) | 25 | 35 | 71.4% | 279 | 1 | 1 | 92.4 |
| 12 (11/24) | LOSS vs. Cowboys | 13.1% (30th) | 16 | 30 | 53.3% | 174 | 2 | 0 | 92.9 |
| 13 (12/1) | WIN at Redskins | 8.4% (26th) | 22 | 28 | 78.6% | 235 | 1 | 1 | 98.7 |
| 14 (12/8) | LOSS at Chargers | 21.9% (32nd) | 20 | 32 | 62.5% | 259 | 1 | 2 | 72.3 |
| Season Totals | NA | NA | 266 | 454 | 58.6% | 3,254 | 16 | 20 | 74.2 |
Did you happen to notice a correlation between Eli’s performances and the strength of opponent this year? In case you didn’t, let me go ahead and highlight it for you by taking a look at their 5 wins this season ...
Source:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-14-dvoa-ratings
As you can see, the Giants have yet to beat a top defense this year, as the only ones they have won against have poor overall defenses. They have lost and lost handily every time they have faced a top defense this year: the Panthers (38-0), the Chiefs (31-7), and the Broncos (41-23). That bodes well for an angry Seattle team that will be looking for a whipping boy.
Key #3: Many Happy Returns …
We haven’t talked a whole lot about Special Teams this year, but the battle for field position is always of crucial importance -- especially on the road.
While the Seahawks haven’t done particularly all that well on kickoffs this year (their 20.5 yards/return ranks only 27th), the Giants have actually done worse, as they average only 19.9 yards/kickoff return (30th in the NFL).
And while that may be a push in terms of advantage for the Seahawks in terms of the field position battle in that arena, when it comes to the punting game that’s an entirely different story.
Coming in to this Sunday’s contest, the Seahawks have given up a mind blowingly low 15 yards all year long on punts. In 13 games, they have a mere 1.2 yards per punt return.
The Giants on the other hand … are a completely different story. Coming in to this contest on Sunday, the Giants have given up whopping 509 Yards (nearly 40 yards per game) on Punt Returns this year … and are allowing 14.5 Yards/Punt Return this year (3rd Most in the league).
Golden Tate is averaging 9.4 yards/punt return this year (13th in the league) and has racked up the 2nd most punt return yardage this season (467) hasn’t broken one for a touchdown yet this season. Given the way that the Giants have been hemorrhaging yardage, it’s entirely possible that we see one come Sunday.
Key #4: Don’t be the Beanstalk ...
Though their offense has been less than stellar, the Giants Defense has been a completely different story. According to ProFootball Focus ...
Source:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/12/13/3tfo-seahawks-giants-week-15/
For a team like the Seahawks that prides itself on running the ball, that’s not good news. Russell Wilson uses play action 34.7% of the time that he drops back to pass (most in the league), so when Seattle is able to establish the run game, they are that much more dangerous on offense. Though very few are talking about it, the Offensive Line and their run blocking has been a concern this year. Marshawn Lynch has had only three 100+ rushing games this season. While it’s easy (and quite correct) to point to the injuries that Seattle has suffered along that O-Line as having been a major factor as to why the run game hasn’t gotten going, the Seahawks have now had 3 games in a row with that line intact … and still no 100 yard rushing day for Lynch.
Marshawn Lynch ranks 5th in the league with 1,042 yards rushing this year, but a lot of that has come via his own efforts, as he has broken more tackles than any other back in the league. His offensive line on the other hand? According to PFF, the only Seattle lineman they have with a positive grade is Michael Bowie. That’s a bad sign. In fact, they have James Carpenter and J.R. Sweezy with a combined run block grade of -19.7 -- among one of the worst guard tandems in the NFL. Max Unger was a full participant in practice on Friday and is listed as Probable for this game, which is a good thing as Seattle is going to need his leadership this weekend.
I won’t go so far as to say that if the Seahawks fail to establish the run on Sunday that they’re in danger of losing this game. I will say though that if this Seattle team has any true aspirations of getting to and winning the Super Bowl, they’re going to need the Beast to power them there.
The Seahawks though, could be catching a break in that department though, as DE Jason Pierre-Paul is out with a shoulder issue. That means that 30 year old Mathias Kiwanuka gets the nod in his place. Despite the fact that Kiwanuka has 4 sacks on the season, PFF has him ranked 49th out of a total of 50 defensive ends. They note that he has trouble generating consistent pressure and that he has really struggled to stop the run (run grade of -6.4). In addition, while he’s listed as Probable for this game, DT Cullen Jenkins has been limited in practice this week with a shin and quad issue. Though Justin Tuck is one of the very best defensive ends in the NFL, he certainly can’t do it all on his own. Seattle is catching the Giants at the perfect time, as they are a banged up and demoralized team at this point in the season. If there was ever a game we could point to as being a possible break out game for Lynch and the Seattle running attack, this one would probably be it. For the long terms goals of this team, let’s hope that we see just that.
Key #5: Nail the Dress Rehearsal …
Sunday could be a most interesting day for Russell Wilson and company, as it likely marks the last road game they will play this year. If the Seahawks were to play on the road again this season, it would be at MetLife Stadium in the Super Bowl come February. So, this game presents a unique opportunity of sorts for the team to get used to the town and the stadium in the event that actually comes to pass. And when it comes to passing, Russell Wilson has been one of the best in the NFL this season …
107.7 QB Rating … 2nd Best in the NFL
100.6 QB Rating on Road … 4th Best in the NFL
8.8 Yards/Pass Avg … Best in the NFL
60% Completion Rate on Deep Passes … Best in the NFL
34 Big Play Passes (25 yards or more) … 4th Most in the NFL
64.8% Pass Completion Percentage …6th Best in the NFL
24 Passing TD’s … Tied for 9th Most (which is amazing considering Seattle has the 2nd fewest pass attempts in the league)
Russell Wilson is difficult for any defense to effectively contain. That said, the Giants actually have been fairly good against the pass all season long. Though they rank next to last in Sacks (25), they are tied for 11th in Passing TD’s Allowed (20), have 12 Interceptions on the season (tied 16th), are 15th in QB Rating Allowed (84.5), and have allowed only 37 passes of 20 yards or more to be completed against them (10th Best).
So, on paper, they aren’t that bad of a defense. And according to Football Outsiders they’re not, as they have them ranked 10th in terms of overall defense (-6.8%) -- tied with Kansas City incidentally.
While Seattle is obviously going to catch a break with DE Jason Pierre-Paul out with a shoulder injury, they’re still going to have to find a way to deal with DE Justin Tuck, one of the better defensive ends in the NFL. Tuck comes in to this game with 49 Tackles, 8.5 Sacks, and 6 Tackles for Loss, showing that he is still a force to be reckoned with. If he ends up lining up on the left side, Breno Giacomini will have all he can handle. That’s a matchup to keep an eye on.
The Giants secondary has talent, but certainly some holes at this point in the season. SS Antrel Rolle (9 Tackles, 2.0 Sacks, 1 TFL, 10 PD, 5 INT) and RCB Prince Amukamara (72 Tackles, 9 PD, 1 INT, 4 TFL) are two of the best at their respective positions in the NFL. Russell Wilson is certainly going to have to be wary of those two. PFF has S Will Hill (undrafted rookie out of Florida) leading the Giants secondary with an overall grade of +9.3 -- he’s been a pleasant surprise for them … while WILL LB Jacquian Williams has a pass grade of +6.2 -- which places him in the top 10 of all 4-3 linebackers in the league. So, New York has some talent back there. As I mentioned above though, they also have some holes. Starting LCB Corey Webster is OUT for this game with an ankle injury. That’s going to force CB Terrell Thomas in to his place … and he sat out Wednesday (as he always does) in order to rest his surgically repaired knee. He was limited in practice all week because of it, so watch for that one. It should be an interesting matchup for Wilson tomorrow for sure.
Bold Prediction …
Although people both locally and nationally have joked that the Seahawks will be more focused on finding hotels for themselves for February than on the game itself … there’s no way I see that actually being the case. This is an angry football team that comes in very upset for having lost in San Francisco. Justin Tuck certainly knows that this is a team to be wary of, as he told reporters this week: "The last thing you want to be is embarrassed. And this is a team that, if you're not ready to play, they will embarrass you ... and then laugh at you about it." The Giants, on the other hand, come in to this game a real whipped puppy. If a team comes in and gets a lead on them early, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the crowd get on them and for these guys fold up their tents for the day. This one has all the looks of a laugher and coming off a loss, I’d look for the Hawks to be the ones doing the laughing at the end of the day. Marshawn Lynch finally goes over 100 yards … the Legion of Boom makes Eli and the offense cry uncle … and Wilson stands alone atop the podium with his 23rd win, the most of any QB over his first 2 years in the NFL. Let’s call it …
Seahawks 38
Giants 10
