ClumsyLurk":2zz1ddjn said:
telerion":2zz1ddjn said:
kidhawk":2zz1ddjn said:
It's not just a few occurrences, it's over the course of 19 games in similar situations. that is not a bad base. Of course we don't know who the other teams were or their opponents, but to be 2-2 in a situation where other qbs are a combined 0-16 is a pretty solid indicator
You're correct that there have been quite a few games where a team had a 95% of losing after halftime (identifying that probability requires some strong assumptions but we can ignore them ). What hasn't been identified by the statistic above is that RW or AL are the ones who have led these comebacks because they possess above average skills which permit them to overcome big halftime deficits and not because they are the lucky few that have pulled it off this year.
Now most of us here probably believe that RW has these sort of skills (in part because we've seen his great comebacks in other situations), but until we have more observations of RW in these so called "95% chance of losing at halftime" we really can't statistically identify that RW is better at these situations than other qb's. This is especially true if you want to identify characteristics distinct to RW from say cross-effects from particular players around him.
It's a nice stat. I just don't think it means much right now.
How much more and what do you need to see before you're willing to say that Russ has the "it" factor - the "clutch" factor. Becuase I believe it is obvious that he does and it's already been shown.
He did it in college as well.
I suspect he does have "the clutch factor" based on his winning in other situations (including cases with less than a 95% of losing). In addition we see him displaying the skills that we think are part of being clutch (e.g., self-control under stress, courage in the face of a defensive pressure, testimony of his leadership skills by teammates).
All I'm saying is that taking this one stat in isolation presents a cool example but doesn't add any more strength (statistically speaking) to the claim that he is clutch.
It would be like if RW and 19 of us each wrote our name on piece of paper and plopped them in a hat. Then some one draws a name from the hat. If Russ wins, we don't say "wow Russ must be better than us at games of chance!" We say "congrats, Russ, you got lucky."
If we repeat and he does it again then we probably still chalk it up to luck. If he does it 7 out of the next 10 times, we might want to interrogate the person drawing the names because RW probably has an unfair advantage over us.
So in summary. Russ has led the team to two very unlikely comebacks already this season. That's awesome. I suspect he's clutch and over his career we'll may see enough of these to say it with some mathematical precision.
