Russell on 3rd down

[evergreen]

I had a suspicion there was a dark side to this 100 QB rating...
https://twitter.com/NFLMatchup/status/1 ... .com%2Fnfl

 

[Seymour]

I haven't even read this yet....but I know it is not good Russell news. :34853_doh:

 

[themunn]

Always knew Blake Bortles was elite

 

[brimsalabim]

This wouldn't have anything to do with ...run on first, run on second, throw on third perhaps?

 

[bmorepunk]

Here's a post I head from another thread:

So I found the numbers for % First Downs on 3rd Down:

1 M. Ryan Atl 55.7 ( 44/79 )
2 P. Mahomes KC 52.2 ( 35/67 )
3 J. Winston TB 51.7 ( 15/29 )
4 A. Luck Ind 51.6 ( 49/95 )
5 M. Mariota Ten 50.0 ( 25/50 )
6 M. Stafford Det 46.4 ( 32/69 )
7 B. Osweiler Mia 45.5 ( 20/44 )
8 J. Goff LAR 44.8 ( 30/67 )
9 M. Trubisky Chi 44.1 ( 26/59 )
10 D. Brees NO 43.9 ( 25/57 )
11 D. Carr Oak 43.3 ( 26/60 )
12 K. Cousins Min 43.2 ( 41/95 )
13 C. Wentz Phi 42.9 ( 24/56 )
14 A. Dalton Cin 42.2 ( 27/64 )
15 B. Roethlisberger Pit 42.0 ( 34/81 )
16 A. Rodgers GB 41.9 ( 31/74 )
17 R. Fitzpatrick TB 41.9 ( 18/43 )
18 C. Newton Car 41.4 ( 24/58 )
19 J. Flacco Bal 40.7 ( 37/91 )
20 B. Bortles Jax 40.5 ( 32/79 )

Brady's not even in the top 20 (28/72 - 38.9%). Rodgers is 16th in the league (41.9%). Winston and Osweiler must be elite, I guess. Wilson is at 37.3%, almost elite Brady territory, apparently.

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/lead ... pe=Passing

The numbers are probably a week behind. These numbers are supposedly from when it's a passing down; the ESPN numbers seem like they include rushing attempts by the QB, but that doesn't make sense intuitively given the numbers. It's not the 3rd down conversion rate of the team because that doesn't work either.

Regardless, you'll notice names like "Brady" and "Rodgers" aren't in their top 10, and I'm guess Brady isn't in the top 20 of this ranking, either.

 

[semiahmoo]

I had a suspicion there was a dark side to this 100 QB rating...
https://twitter.com/NFLMatchup/status/1 ... .com%2Fnfl

Knew it was bad but not THAT bad.

Then again there's some other definitely elite Qbs who didn't make that top 10 so not sure how RW really stacks up overall.

Russ is having a solid season especially given he's working with a new OC.

O-Line much improved.

Run game much improved.

Defense is young, plays hungry, but inconsistent which was totally expected.

We aren't even close to being a top 5 team in the league right now but we are a lot more entertaining to watch than the previous couple of seasons and I see a possible foundation for another legit run into the playoffs in the next 2-3 seasons as the organization shakes out all the question marks and we get back to rocking it at home like we used to.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

The same Russ who just threw the game winning touchdown on.....wait for it......3rd down?
Most of their 3rd down conversions are via the run I suspect.

 

[Seymour]

The same Russ who just threw the game winning touchdown on.....wait for it......3rd down?
Most of their 3rd down conversions are via the run I suspect.

Not only that but the TE route Dickson ran was a hot read by Wilson and Dickson (that "Russ never does") and was a strike on a blitz beater that Wilson also "never beats".
Also thrown just as he hit his back foot which again...."he never does".

:snack:


[tweet]https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1063282532001542147[/tweet]

 

[SoulfishHawk]

We just need a real QB who knows how to win. But he has to be a certain height, and put up certain numbers.
Winning isn't as important as he looks and plays how WE want him to.

 

[Seymour]

We just need a real QB who knows how to win. But he has to be a certain height, and put up certain numbers.
Winning isn't as important as he looks and plays how WE want him to.

....which is subject to change every week of course. :irishdrinkers:

 

[RCATES]

This stat has a lot to do with those 3rd downs being very long do to untimely sacks or penalties in which this team has act of committing quite often. I don't know whether its Wilson, the OC or both but when a team knows we're throwing the ball we seem to always struggle.

 

[ivotuk]

Apparently a lot of the false starts Thursday were the Packers defensive linemen simulating the snap count. Hence Britt's anger.

Per Pete "The referees finally got them to stop."

 

[Jazzhawk]

Here's the original image:

 

[nanomoz]

I'd like to see what all of these quarterbacks avg. third down distance is. It seems like Russell is often at about 3rd and 20 due to sacks (which are part on him when so much yardage is lost) and penalties.

 

[Smellyman]

No stat on distance? 2 runs, 3rd and 9 for Seattle

Kind of important.

 

[Flyingsquad23]

 

[hawknation2018]

13 sacks on 3rd down have been a killer. Sometimes, he seems to be holding the ball too long in the pocket, overthinking things on 3rd downs. At other times, there have been some breakdowns in pass protection.

When Wilson has gotten the ball off on 3rd downs, he has a QB rating of 111.

His numbers on 3rd and short look dissappinting, but it’s a small sample. 12 passing attempts and three sacks. Got to get better there. More play action in those situations might help. Quick hitters might be good too.

 

[erik2690]

Yeah I think the originally posted stat is way less helpful than the chart just posted b/c putting 3rd down conv. % as a QB stat with no variables doesn't seem that logical. His 3rd down numbers are not anything drastically bad at all even if not amazing.

 

[lobohawk]

To lazy to look it up, but I'd be curious where he stood after eliminating the first two games where the whole offense was dysfunctional.

 

[KiwiHawk]

Not really sure why the hate in this thread for the running game. After two of Carson's runs it's rarely 3rd-and-9, and frequently it's 3rd-and-short which we convert on the ground as well. In fact, I'd wager that's what's skewing the numbers. because we can run on 3rd down, Wilson has to pick up the tougher opportunities.