Richardson vs Levis

[AgentDib]

You might be fine with Levis in that scenario. But you also have to recognize that in time, you'll also have to pay him market value. Which just doesn't add up. Or, let him walk & repeat the process over.

My long-term strategy would be to keep drafting QBs where I had the opportunity, and in most cases where Levis developed into something less than a top QB I would trade him before paying him and then go with another young QB on a cheap contract. I don't mind repeating the process over because it's a process that is generating surplus value. QBs are valued more than other positions and yet the rookie wage scale is the same for everybody. There's a significant opportunity there that can be exploited by drafting and playing QBs on their rookie contract.

If Levis did hit, then paying top money for top QBs is a problem I'd like to have, particularly if he was willing to sign a Mahomes type deal. That gives you 6 years of advantage due to cheap contracts, and then due to the rising salary cap the remaining years end up very reasonable.

That said, the more limited your QB, the more failure points you create on your roster.

I would argue that Zach Wilson and Baker Mayfield were simply busts. That could be the case with Levis, as it is with any player we draft. Levis is probably riskier than most of the players in my top 20 but as a QB the potential reward is also better. Daniel Jones lost to a team that also had a rookie QB contract. If you remove the QBs from the equation then the Eagles roster was much better than the Giants roster, and both of those teams would likely have been worse if they were paying veteran QB money.

Alex Smith in KC is a great example of the value of drafting QBs. He was a solid veteran QB with the Chiefs, but they took a shot on a rookie QB contract and it paid off. Even in year 7 the cap hit for Mahomes is still $9mil less than his OTC valuation and they've had $200m in surplus value from his contract to stockpile a talented roster around him. That's the high end outcome, but you don't have to win the lottery on Mahomes in order for a rookie QB contract to still generate a 5x return on investment.

You do need an offensive coaching staff willing to put your players in the best opportunity to succeed, particularly if we are talking about toolsy prospects like Richardson and Levis. Pete had no problem going heavy RO with Russ initially and the running game just works better when the QB is a threat as well. We also have some nice pieces in place to supplement a young QB and can hopefully add another weapon or two this draft.

 

[Ozzy]

I think Levi's potential is being a little underrated by fans. He is almost perfect for the position. If it wasn't for Richardson's freakish physical tools we would be talking about Levis being almost perfect for the position. His tape is tough though because of where he played, playing through injuries etc. It wouldn't shock me at all if Levis turns out to be really, really good though depending on where he goes. Kind of reminds me of Herbert a little who was also not as good in college as he is in the pros

 

[SonicHawk]

I think you might overrate him just a bit.

 

[SeAhAwKeR4life]

I wish Mike Mayock was still a pundit. IDK any other guy who was right more often in evaluation college talent. It was Mayock that was so high on Russel Wilson before anyone else. I'd love to know what he thinks

 

[Maelstrom787]

I think Levi's potential is being a little underrated by fans. He is almost perfect for the position. If it wasn't for Richardson's freakish physical tools we would be talking about Levis being almost perfect for the position. His tape is tough though because of where he played, playing through injuries etc. It wouldn't shock me at all if Levis turns out to be really, really good though depending on where he goes. Kind of reminds me of Herbert a little who was also not as good in college as he is in the pros

Herbert was fantastic and efficient in college. The doubts were mostly a mix of concerns over his mentality and concerns about the pedigree of the school/offense he was in.

With Levis, you don't have Herbert's fantastic college production. You have the same doubts as Herbert with added accuracy concerns, half the scoring production, and even worse, regression from season to season. This after he had to transfer from Penn State because he couldn't compete with a very mid Sean Clifford.

 

[Ozzy]

Herbert was fantastic and efficient in college. The doubts were mostly a mix of concerns over his mentality and concerns about the pedigree of the school/offense he was in.

With Levis, you don't have Herbert's fantastic college production. You have the same doubts as Herbert with added accuracy concerns, half the scoring production, and even worse, regression from season to season. This after he had to transfer from Penn State because he couldn't compete with a very mid Sean Clifford.

It his supporting cast is vastly different. Put Levis on Alabama, Ohio St., or that Oregon team and I bet he puts up similar numbers and put those other guys on Kentucky and they don’t play as well either. Levis tape in 21 is pretty good.

The other argument about not beating out a guy isn’t a strong one either as mutliple guys have switched and been studs. Including Burrow and Wilson.

He may suck like everyone in here appears to think he does but I think he’s a better prospect than many are giving him credit in here

 

[Ozzy]

I think you might overrate him just a bit.

It’s possible lol. I’m torn on Levis. If Seattle passes then I think he’s overrated because physically he’s everything JS loves. So I think if he’s there when Seattle picks and they pass? Then he’s overrated. I’m probably putting too much faith in JA but I trust him with QBs

I guess my stance is I’m not ruling him out yet.

 

[knownone]

I'm firmly in the Levis camp. Given our current needs, I don't know if I'd draft him at 5. But he's a better fit for us than Richardson. He's also a better QB than Richardson right now. And the upside element of the conversation feels nonsensical. Both guys have incredibly high ceilings. Richardson just has a slightly high floor because he's a more dynamic runner.​

 

[Maelstrom787]

the tape I saw of Levis this year I saw some of the worst college receivers I've ever seen. crap routes and NOBODY getting open.

Sure, but Richardson was also let down.

 

[Yxes1122]

Sure, but Richardson was also let down.

This is a great find. The drumbeat is steadily increasing on who AR is as a prospect and it’s in stark contrast with the narrative.

Nate Tice on the Athletic Football Podcast. Matt Waldman has been beating the drum. Will Hewlett, who coached Brock Purdy last offseason and worked with Trevor Lawrence, shared that he’s not had a prospect translate whiteboard to field as quickly as AR. JT O Sullivan has been pointing out that there’s real field general skill to his game. Mark Schofield recently did a podcast where he talked highly about AR.

It’s refreshing.

He’s not Malik Willis. He’s not some incredible athlete playing the position and ever piece of quarterbacking is a projection.

He’s a true, fundamentally developed QB prospect that is simply inexperienced. He needs to get more comfortable with his drops and footwork. He’s going to get bit by coverages in the NFL because he just hasn’t seen them yet. But his processor and foundation are so strong, that it’s just about being patient and growing with him as he makes his mistakes. Give him one year behind a cerebral and technically sound QB like Geno, and it’s his ideal situation—because he can learn from a true student of the game and the position.

I’ve said a lot about AR, and I think this is where I’ll end it:

I remember people citing Mahomes’ win/loss record, his tendency for improvisation, his funky mechanics, and the air raid offense as reasons he wouldn’t work in the NFL. And it was missing the forest for the trees on the foundational talent that he was.

I see the same thing happening with AR. (I’m not saying AR is going to be Patrick Mahomes—they are entirely different players.) But from a pre draft narrative perspective, I see people fixating on details without seeing the prospect as a whole. Fixating on completion percentage, or fixating on number of starts, or fixating on the athletic testing as if it defines him as a prospect—these are single frames in the overall movie of his season.

I’ve watched every game from this season at least twice. I’ve watched LSU, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Tennessee, USF, and Florida State upwards of 5 times, even going back to broadcast views of the games—and my view of Richardson as a future franchise QB has only gotten stronger.

I’m so bullish on him as a prospect, that I hope we don’t have the opportunity to draft him because passing on him, to me, is cementing us to the feeling Bears fans had when they took Trubisky instead of Mahomes. Or the feeling Denver fans have when they look at Bradley Chubb in Miami, when they could’ve had Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. Or Browns fans who, despite hitting on a GENERATIONAL pass rusher in Garrett, would probably trade him and future firsts to have Mahomes instead.

I’m so much of a degenerate about the draft, and so bullish on him, that I went back to old videos of his HS community service, his first spring practice interview at Florida, and any article/video I could find, to try and get a sense of his character. Because character is the only reason I would imagine passing on him.

And I say that all—in full belief that John and Pete aren’t actually looking at QBs. They’re initial end of season pressers had them exclusively talking about wanting to become the 49ers. An organization that has completely deemphasized the QB position. I have no reason to believe that has changed. (Plus, I’m really high on Geno Smith as the type of QB that will unlock every ounce of horsepower available within an offense. He’s just not a transcendent talent.)

Anthony Richardson is transcendent. Not because he runs 4.4 at 240 and can launch a ball into a stadium roof. But because his feel for the game is up there with the very best already—and his athletic gifts are just dangerous weapons in his arsenal.

 

[Chukarhawk]

Richardson is a guaranteed bust. I can see it a mile away. Name one successful NFL QB that played a grand total one mediocre season in college and became a stud starter in the NFL. It's not going to happen. Hes exactly the of guy the Raiders would pick.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Richardson is a guaranteed bust. I can see it a mile away. Name one successful NFL QB that played a grand total one mediocre season in college and became a stud starter in the NFL. It's not going to happen. Hes exactly the of guy the Raiders would pick.

Depends on the landing spot for me.

I think if he comes here, this team will be the most explosive offense in the league once he takes over for Geno. K9 + Richardson stretches defenses thin on the ground.

If he goes to the Raiders, he ends up being a slightly better Terrelle Pryor.

 

[HawksNation]

Richardson would be my first choice due to athletic ability,
But I thought Levi’s had a better pro day, and was able to show off his cannon of an arm.

 

[CactusJack]

Depends on the landing spot for me.

I think if he comes here, this team will be the most explosive offense in the league once he takes over for Geno. K9 + Richardson stretches defenses thin on the ground.

If he goes to the Raiders, he ends up being a slightly better Terrelle Pryor.

The team that drafts him is going to have to be patient with him. But it will likely pay off in the long run.

By year three or four, he could be considered one of the better QB's. I liken it to a Justin Fields/Jalen Hurts type progression. Neither was that impressive right away. But in year three, his second as a full-time starter, Hurts made a jump & the team was playing in the Super Bowl. I could see a similar type of path for Richardson.

 

[HawksNation]

Some in the media have stated they think Seattle could move up to 3 with AZ. How much more would it cost to go up to 2 with Texans?

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

Some in the media have stated they think Seattle could move up to 3 with AZ. How much more would it cost to go up to 2 with Texans?

A ton more. Mostly because Houston and Seattle would be competing for the same position. Whereas AZ moving down to #5 would largely put them in position to get the same player they'd select at #3. Houston, if they drop to 5 not only aren't getting the QB they want, but likely not getting Will Anderson either.

The calculus for who/what teams will be left with is fairly limited in the top 5. For Houston to move out of the top 4, they're going to require an awful big incentive as they'd miss out on QB and Anderson. AZ could still net MORE by moving further back to #7. But at that point, they're going to end up taking their 2nd to 4th best options on the board. How much of a dropoff in quality -- that's something only they could answer. Where dropping to #5 could still give them their top choice. And if Anderson is selected ahead of #5 -- they can always continue to trade back from #5 and still get extra value on top of the net from moving #3 to #5. Assuming Anderson is gone, that would still leave a QB on the board at #5 -- meaning that selection still can be moved at a premium.

Seattle really should only be interested in moving to #3 if there is a specific QB they want, or if they can't live without Will Anderson. I would be surprised if they don't have one of Levis/Richardson as their clear cut #1. I would also be surprised if they don't have Anderson rated #1 on their board. The draft class and it's relative strength and weaknesses also play a factor. The edge class doesn't have a lot of real blue chip value. But has some depth, particularly in they types of end/edge rushers that we're likely to target. From a relative quality standpoint, it's easy to make a case to circle back to edge in the 20-50 overall range and still get a valuable contributor and likely a player worth signing to a second deal.

I would be surprised if we ended up taking Jalen Carter at 5. I would see that selection as largely an abandonment of our draft philosophy since the Malik McDowell and Frank Clark selections. It would be a resumption of 'I can fix him' drafting that we've steered clear of for the last few years. Not at all convinced we'd want to get a fixer upper with that high of draft capital. Maybe at #20, considering the relative value of Carter's position. If we were willing to take Cross at #9 last year and pass on Jordan Davis who is a better prospect by at least half a full round than Carter -- I don't see us entertaining Carter that early either.

 

[BlueTalon]

I don't know how the draft will play out, but I'm confident of two things -- we're not going to trade up, and we're not going to take Anderson.

 

[GemCity]

I’m on the Richardson train too. If Indy takes Levis, I feel like we’ll grab AR.

If Indy snatches AR, Carter it is.

 

[CactusJack]

 

[bileever]

Please, no. No to both. I hope we're not that dumb.

Not that this means much, but on Pat Kirwan and Jim Miller's show on Sirius XM radio yesterday, two University of Florida fans called in and said, Anthony Richardson? what are you talking about? we didn't think he was even a decent college quarterback.

Pat Kirwan made a good point, which was, when was the last time a mediocre college QB became a star in the NFL? The answer: Never. Has never happened.