remaining season schedule

[Hawknballs]

now that we have a taste of what this team will look like this year here is the way I see it going:

@Washington
Win Chance: 70%

This is a road game and Kirk Cousins is playing well. The Redskins are second in the league in offense at the moment, and actually ranked above Seattle defensively. That being said, outside their shootout lost to the Eagles, they've played Jacksonvill and lost to Houston, teams who combined to win very few games last year.

Though this game is on the road, I'll give the edge to Seattle - they are the better team, and these guys love to play in prime time, a factor that I think somewhat nullifies the road factor, along with a bye week to prepare.

Dallas
Win Chance: 85%

Dallas could put up some points but being at home in front of the 12's, I just don't see them being able to hang. It could be a better game than you'd expect - and I wouldn't be surprised to see a one-score game out of it, but I have a hard time seeing Dallas winding up on the positive side of it.

@St. Louis
Win Chance: 51%

I'm not super confident about playing in St. Louis, but I'm going to give the cop-out 1% lean towards Seattle for being the more complete team. However I hate playing this game every year. The Edward Jones Dome sounds like a morgue. There's seemingly nothing for our guys to feed off of and they need that outside stimulus to get cranked up.

@Carolina
Win Chance: 60%

Hard one to call - we saw how good Carolina was last season and we beat them then. I thought they were going to be decent this year despite the brand new receivers, but they looked awful at home against the Steelers.

Oakland
Win Chance: 91%

Oakland isn't great. Rookie QB at the Clink.

New York Giants
Win Chance: 91%

New York isn't great. Mistake prone QB at the Clink.

@Kansas City
Win Chance: 55%

This is going to be tough one. Those KC fans can get noisy as well know, and they are going to be especially jacked up against the Seahawks. Alex Smith handed us some frustrating losses in his time at SF. Seattle is the better team but this one will be a battle.

Arizona
Win Chance: 75%

I realize AZ beat us at home last year - but that is why I'm fairly confident in this win. The chances of the same team beating us at home twice in a row seem fairly high. Make no mistake, this is a good team. I'm going with the odds more than anything.

@Santa Clara
Win Chance: 40%

My first straight up loss prediction here. We haven't won down there since 2008. I realize the niners don't look so hot right now but don't forget they have some guys who should be back for this game on that defense.

@Philadelphia
Win Chance: 50%

Toss up for me here. Going to need to see both teams more. Philly has a great offense but that defense could be a liability. This is a game that i think goes either way based on how healthy the teams are at this point in the season.

Santa Clara
Win Chance: 80%

The 49ers don't beat us at home recently. The NFC Championship game was closer than it has been but given Kaepernick's turnovers in the fourth quater and wilson's fumble to start the game, it shouldn't have been as close as it was.

@Arizona
Win Chance: 45%

The Cardinals look good this year, and while I think we won't let them beat us at home again, this is a tough one on the road.

St. Louis
Win Chance: 95%

The only way I wouldn't bet the house here is if this game is meaningless because seeding has already been established. If this game has meaning I just can't see our guys dropping the closing game to the Rams at home.

Based on all this:



----------------------------------
Worst Case scenario - we lose the games ranked 59% or lower and go 10-6
We Split the games ranked Ranked between 50 and 59% and go 11-5/12-4
We Win every game I have us favored in and we go 13-3

Of course, as every season goes - you'll lose some games you expected to win, and win some you expected to lose - not that we expect to lose many games. Depending on what happens with Arizona, 11-5 could still win this division, and 12-4 could very well win the 1 seed.

 

[2_0_6]

I hate looking too far ahead especially with the possibility of injuries, but I cant really argue with much of this except for KC. They have been decimated by injuries, and Alex Smith has had little success against us for most of his career.

The Philly game worries me as well.

 

[HawkFan72]

Crap.

I just realized our next game is at Washington.

You know, the Worst Field Conditions in the NFL.

I really hope we can get out of there healthy. That place is a deathtrap for knee and ankle injuries.

I kind of overlooked that game on the schedule, but I am actually worried now that it is up next.

 

[Hawknballs]

I hate looking too far ahead especially with the possibility of injuries, but I cant really argue with much of this except for KC. They have been decimated by injuries, and Alex Smith has had little success against us for most of his career.

The Philly game worries me as well.

with KC we are going to get a taste of our own medicine. The crowd is going to make that one brutal.

Alex smith is also 6-5 against the Seahawks in his career, including a 4-game win streak, so I wouldn't say 'little success'. Remember that awful rainy thursday night game when he russell-wilsoned us to death in seattle with his feet? That was one of the most painful games I've ever watched. My most recent memories of Smith are getting beat by him; the only time we didn't were back when the 49ers were really bad.

 

[Hawknballs]

Crap.

I just realized our next game is at Washington.

You know, the Worst Field Conditions in the NFL.

I really hope we can get out of there healthy. That place is a deathtrap for knee and ankle injuries.

I kind of overlooked that game on the schedule, but I am actually worried now that it is up next.

yeah but at least it should be in decent condition since it's the beginning of the season and warmer. that playoff game it was all torn up from a season of wear and freezing.

 

[HawkFan72]

I hate looking too far ahead especially with the possibility of injuries, but I cant really argue with much of this except for KC. They have been decimated by injuries, and Alex Smith has had little success against us for most of his career.

The Philly game worries me as well.

with KC we are going to get a taste of our own medicine. The crowd is going to make that one brutal.

Alex smith is also 6-5 against the Seahawks in his career, including a 4-game win streak, so I wouldn't say 'little success'. Remember that awful rainy thursday night game when he russell-wilsoned us to death in seattle with his feet? That was one of the most painful games I've ever watched. My most recent memories of Smith are getting beat by him; the only time we didn't were back when the 49ers were really bad.

Yeah I don't know what he's talking about. Alex Smith has had his way with us. I was so happy when SF traded him away.

 

[2_0_6]

I hate looking too far ahead especially with the possibility of injuries, but I cant really argue with much of this except for KC. They have been decimated by injuries, and Alex Smith has had little success against us for most of his career.

The Philly game worries me as well.

with KC we are going to get a taste of our own medicine. The crowd is going to make that one brutal.

Alex smith is also 6-5 against the Seahawks in his career, including a 4-game win streak, so I wouldn't say 'little success'. Remember that awful rainy thursday night game when he russell-wilsoned us to death in seattle with his feet? That was one of the most painful games I've ever watched. My most recent memories of Smith are getting beat by him; the only time we didn't were back when the 49ers were really bad.

Yeah I don't know what he's talking about. Alex Smith has had his way with us. I was so happy when SF traded him away.

Alex Smiths numbers the last 5 games against us. With the defense still very much in transition back in 2011 and nowhere near what it is today, Id say we handled him VERY well.

10-18-2012
14/23 140 yards

12-24-2011
14/26 179 yards

9-11-11
15/20 124 yards

12-12-2010
17/27 241 yards

9-7-2010
19/36 206 yards

 

[TwistedHusky]

I worry about our ability to play on grass.

I think that was part of the problem in Miami, and frankly last year against the Texans I think it was part of the problem (unless the Texans play on turf and I am just flat wrong).

I think the #s came out the other day showing our guys are generally smaller than the NFL average. But they are faster. That is great on turf where you already have an advantage, but given the grass slows you - the difference in power isn't a linear loss. A few % change in velocity can make a big difference in the impact you have and also smaller guys are going to get more tired on a grass field than turf, for the same reason running through sand can tire you out.

I think we got super lucky last year because almost every road game was on turf. And of course our home games are on turf. So we didn't have many games where the grass really held us back, but the games we did - we won, but just barely (not counting at AZ, who we beat down badly).

So yes, Washington scares me. But I assume Pete has a plan and since I hope it is not 130 degrees on the field, hopefully that plan works out for us.

I also think this is one reason we shellac SF at home but struggle on the road, because SF is on grass.

Maybe this is a simplistic assessment. Maybe a combination of the travel, grass, and various areas of strength vs weakness are more the issue - but it clearly seems like we play slower/differently on a grass field vs turf.

 

[bmorepunk]

You know, the Worst Field Conditions in the NFL.

How do you know this?

This was their last home game. They have one with the Giants next week, then the Seahawks game.



So horrible.

 

[Pizza Mane]

I worry about our ability to play on grass.

I think that was part of the problem in Miami, and frankly last year against the Texans I think it was part of the problem (unless the Texans play on turf and I am just flat wrong).

Houston has a weird hybrid field where they piece together new slabs of grass for each game. Apparently it's crap as a result - Clowney even blamed his injury on it.

http://deadspin.com/jadeveon-clowney-blames-texans-crappy-turf-for-knee-inj-1632097247

 

[Hawknballs]

I don't really wanna hear about stats - I care about wins. We spend so much time defending russell wilson with his wins and not his stats. Fact of the matter is that Alex Smith beat us more often than not over the course of his career. I was personally happy with the fact that SF let him go and kept kaepernick.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

I hate looking too far ahead especially with the possibility of injuries, but I cant really argue with much of this except for KC. They have been decimated by injuries, and Alex Smith has had little success against us for most of his career.

The Philly game worries me as well.

Kansas City is a trainwreck they can run the ball and such but in the redzone they are horrible and can't be trusted to make a FG. They have a good pash rush but can be exploited up the middle. Bowe is a big physical receiver that can be handled by Seattle pretty well and will drop the ball. Outside of that their WR's are below average. The real danger is Kelce he is going to be really good TE and soon. Of course Jamaal Charles will be back by the time we play them so that well help them but surprisingly he's not a real redzone threat. Alex Smith is Alex Smith give him time and he will be an issue but the thing is Kansas City made a huge mistake in letting Albert go among others. Smith rarely has time to get set even against the average to bad teams they have played so far. It will get ugly against the top tier teams upcoming. Also DON'T put much stock into their performance against Denver that was a typical thing for them. They always play them close (over their head) and find a way to lose.

Philadelphia is a weird one they are so hot and cold I believe the deciding factor will be their lack of defense and the fact that they don't run the ball well so never control the clock. They have Foles throwing the ball 40+ times a game and that is usually bad news against Seattle if you can't effectively run the ball.

 

[Hawknballs]

Philadelphia is a weird one they are so hot and cold I believe the deciding factor will be their lack of defense and the fact that they don't run the ball well so never control the clock. They have Foles throwing the ball 40+ times a game and that is usually bad news against Seattle if you can't effectively run the ball.

That's bad news at home but on the road it's a different story, when your D-line isn't getting a jump on the O-line and creating pressure. A pressured 40 pass attemps is a much different beast than an unpressured 40 pass attempts and our D-line has been decent but it's not the one we had last year. We also struggle when we can't rotate our personnel and you can bet philly will be taking massive advantage of that. The Philly game might be one of tougher games on our schedule. In fact one of the biggest critiques I have for my initial post is that putting things in perspective as they stand right now I probably would flip flop the Philly/SF percentages.

if we go in and kick the crap out of Philly, our chances of being good enough to go all the way and win it again go up a lot.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Philadelphia is a weird one they are so hot and cold I believe the deciding factor will be their lack of defense and the fact that they don't run the ball well so never control the clock. They have Foles throwing the ball 40+ times a game and that is usually bad news against Seattle if you can't effectively run the ball.

That's bad news at home but on the road it's a different story, when your D-line isn't getting a jump on the O-line and creating pressure. A pressured 40 pass attemps is a much different beast than an unpressured 40 pass attempts and our D-line has been decent but it's not the one we had last year. We also struggle when we can't rotate our personnel and you can bet philly will be taking massive advantage of that. The Philly game might be one of tougher games on our schedule. In fact one of the biggest critiques I have for my initial post is that putting things in perspective as they stand right now I probably would flip flop the Philly/SF percentages.

if we go in and kick the crap out of Philly, our chances of being good enough to go all the way and win it again go up a lot.

Usually I would worry but if it comes to it, we can both get into and win a pure shootout with Philadelphia. But it's not likely to be a pure shootout, higher scoring? Possible but likely more like San Diego with us controlling the pace. By then weather will be a factor that will favor the defense also. If our pash rush is better then currently which I assume it will be the game isn't close.

 

[onanygivensunday]

FWIW, the field surface at the Redskin's FedEx Stadium was re-sodded and corrected following our playoff victory two years ago.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

I worry about our ability to play on grass.

I think that was part of the problem in Miami, and frankly last year against the Texans I think it was part of the problem (unless the Texans play on turf and I am just flat wrong).

I think the #s came out the other day showing our guys are generally smaller than the NFL average. But they are faster. That is great on turf where you already have an advantage, but given the grass slows you - the difference in power isn't a linear loss. A few % change in velocity can make a big difference in the impact you have and also smaller guys are going to get more tired on a grass field than turf, for the same reason running through sand can tire you out.

I think we got super lucky last year because almost every road game was on turf. And of course our home games are on turf. So we didn't have many games where the grass really held us back, but the games we did - we won, but just barely (not counting at AZ, who we beat down badly).

So yes, Washington scares me. But I assume Pete has a plan and since I hope it is not 130 degrees on the field, hopefully that plan works out for us.

I also think this is one reason we shellac SF at home but struggle on the road, because SF is on grass.

Maybe this is a simplistic assessment. Maybe a combination of the travel, grass, and various areas of strength vs weakness are more the issue - but it clearly seems like we play slower/differently on a grass field vs turf.

Blaming it on grass is far too simplistic. We can play just fine on grass it's other factors like...

1. The opponent is good (San Francisco, Carolina, Indianapolis, San Diego) all good with the last two giving us unique matchup issues
2. Travel
3. Time of game
4. Matchups

With number 1 and 4 being the most important.