Quality over Quantity?

[Wsumatt1982]

I don't recall any threads regarding this topic so excuse me if this has been discussed. With all the topics on who you want or don't want at 18 it got me thinking.

We have 5 of the top 92 picks in this draft. The sweet spot is rounds 2-4. We have 1 1st, 2 2nd's and 2 3rd's.

The question is would you rather have as many bites at the apple (keep all 5 picks or even trade down from 18 to get a 6th pick in the top 3 rounds) or would you rather trade up from our 2nd's and 3rd's and have possibly 3 better picks (for sake of argument let's just say 3 top 40 picks) but not pick again until the 4th or 5th? I know who is available at those picks is a factor but we don't know who that would be. With how the roster is currently constructed which option would you prefer and why?

I'm torn myself. I would normally love for the trade up options but in this draft and with needs on our roster I would prefer to stick and pick. I can see 5 solid contributors with our first 5 picks in areas of need that are projected to be there when we pick. Since there's not a major drop off from the mid 1st to the mid-late 3rd I want as many bites at the apple personally.

 

[Maulbert]

The draft is a crapshoot. I'd rather drop out of the first round for a couple extra day 2 picks.

 

[TheLegendOfBoom]

I don't recall any threads regarding this topic so excuse me if this has been discussed. With all the topics on who you want or don't want at 18 it got me thinking.

We have 5 of the top 92 picks in this draft. The sweet spot is rounds 2-4. We have 1 1st, 2 2nd's and 2 3rd's.

The question is would you rather have as many bites at the apple (keep all 5 picks or even trade down from 18 to get a 6th pick in the top 3 rounds) or would you rather trade up from our 2nd's and 3rd's and have possibly 3 better picks (for sake of argument let's just say 3 top 40 picks) but not pick again until the 4th or 5th? I know who is available at those picks is a factor but we don't know who that would be. With how the roster is currently constructed which option would you prefer and why?

I'm torn myself. I would normally love for the trade up options but in this draft and with needs on our roster I would prefer to stick and pick. I can see 5 solid contributors with our first 5 picks in areas of need that are projected to be there when we pick. Since there's not a major drop off from the mid 1st to the mid-late 3rd I want as many bites at the apple personally.

I’ve thought about this a lot.

I think drafting 4 starters (within 2 years) are an absolute anomaly in drafts.

If we are talking about this draft being impactful like the 2010 and 2011 drafts, you are setting yourself up for expectations you may not receive.

I’m all for if you can get 3 quality players that will play 80 or 90 percent of the snaps, that’s a good decent draft hall.

Most players drafted do not become 8 year players in a rotation and even fewer are likely to become stars. But if you can squeeze out three per year that play a majority of the snaps early on in their rookie and sophomore years, then, that is a good draft class.

I like I want to say 10 players that I’ve seen and studied and I think Seattle can draft maybe 4 of them.

In this case, Seattle, has a decent crop of picks to work with and it’s up to their scouting department to hit on them and truthfully told, it does not mean, quantity in picks are likely to breed success, but, a great eye for talent is everything.

I’ll take 3 good players with immediate paying dividends over 7 lame duck picks that fizzles out after 4 NFL years.

Seattle can have 15 picks but or 8 picks, but, Seattle needs to nail at least 3 solid players for this draft class or any other for that matter to be considered a good haul, IMO.

 

[Rat]

An important thing to point out here is that we aren't picking near the top of round one. If we trade down, we're not picking up some huge collection of second and third round picks.

We already have ten picks. I wouldn't just indiscriminately give up anything to move up, but if someone like Campbell or Warren falls out of the top 10, I'm absolutely calling teams (I would for Shadeur too, but I don't want to sidetrack this). Chances are we could make a decent tradeup and still have plenty of other picks. And you could still trade down with those. Could be a "both" kind of situation.

I don't like the "crapshoot" belief. If the draft was a crapshoot, we wouldn't consistently see the hit rate on higher-drafted players absolutely dwarf each subsequent round. If I have ten scratch-off tickets, and my best one has a 45% chance of being something good, I'm not interested in trading that for a ticket with a 25% chance and two with a 5% chance.

 

[Maelstrom787]

There are talent cliffs, specific prospects falling, etc. to consider - but generally, trading down to acquire additional capital while keeping the newly-acquired picks in the same general talent level is the best way to go.

No one has drafting down to a science - and those that do generally actually have the coaching down to a science rather than the scouting (See: Eagles, Lions OL, Packers QBs, Kyle Shanahan middling QBs, etc). More selections = more chances at locating the right guys.

 

[Scout]

Yes the sweet spot is rounds 2-5 for this draft. The problem is the Seahawks already have 7 picks in rounds 2-5 and in if you include the first rounder that makes it 8 picks from rounds 1-5. So at some point picking up more picks is waste of time as you can not realistically roster that many rookies on the bottom of the 53 man roster. And why accumulate draft picks for 2026 as the cap crunch will be lessened in 2026.

 

[TheLegendOfBoom]

There are talent cliffs, specific prospects falling, etc. to consider - but generally, trading down to acquire additional capital while keeping the newly-acquired picks in the same general talent level is the best way to go.

No one has drafting down to a science - and those that do generally actually have the coaching down to a science rather than the scouting (See: Eagles, Lions OL, Packers QBs, Kyle Shanahan middling QBs, etc). More selections = more chances at locating the right guys.

It all comes down to evaluations and an eye for talent. If you don’t have a good eye for talent it doesn’t matter if you have 100 picks. You will still suck.

Seattle’s eye for talent I would say is generally mid tier and explains how Seattle is currently.

Seattle has made better picks recently and needs to continue to improve on their scouting process in order to increase their chances of getting a better player.

There are teams that now continuously draft in later picks in round 1 but seem to nail them more often than Seattle when Seattle was picking late in the first round. It comes to having an eye for talent and although Seattle is somewhat better recently, they need to do it consistently and continue with this draft.

 

[Scout]

To keep things balanced if we examine the draft turnaround for JS which we believe started in 2022 he was able to stick with picks at higher slotting. Cross, Mafe, Walker, Luca, Bryant, Woolen, Smith and Young.

And then the following year he has D. Witherspoon pick at 5 but then a BAP player fell in his lap at 20 with JSN and a similar scenario unfolded with Murph at 16.

The Ravens pick late year in and year out but they tend to draft very well still so that is factor too.

For JS who struggles with drafting later in the draft allotment I would advise to NOT trade down.

 

[toffee]

In all my latest mocks, I traded up and drafted 7-8 players.

 

[Rat]

We havnt traded up in the first under Schneider, but have three times in the second: Darrell Taylor (#48), Jarran Reed (#49), and DK Metcalf (#64). Also twice in the third: Tyler Lockett (#69) and Cody Barton (#88). That's kind of a mixed bag.

 

[GemCity]

Stick-n-Pick or if you really love a guy, trade up.

With the number of quality picks we have, I think it’s unwise to give up that 18th spot.

 

[GemCity]

An important thing to point out here is that we aren't picking near the top of round one. If we trade down, we're not picking up some huge collection of second and third round picks.

We already have ten picks. I wouldn't just indiscriminately give up anything to move up, but if someone like Campbell or Warren falls out of the top 10, I'm absolutely calling teams (I would for Shadeur too, but I don't want to sidetrack this). Chances are we could make a decent tradeup and still have plenty of other picks. And you could still trade down with those. Could be a "both" kind of situation.

I don't like the "crapshoot" belief. If the draft was a crapshoot, we wouldn't consistently see the hit rate on higher-drafted players absolutely dwarf each subsequent round. If I have ten scratch-off tickets, and my best one has a 45% chance of being something good, I'm not interested in trading that for a ticket with a 25% chance and two with a 5% chance.

Love the analogy and agree.

 

[chris98251]

Typically there are usually 10 to 15 players that are above all, then you get a tier of 40 or so players that kind of are in that same ball park very good, that's where John likes to navigate and why he looks at round 2 and 3 to pay off more for less so to speak. Guys falling due to injury, systems, transfers now, need more time to develop against better competition I think are 4th thru 7th round and sometimes you strike gold.

 

[toffee]

I think are 4th thru 7th round and sometimes you strike gold.

or not.

 

[oldhawkfan]

Quality vs quantity? Only one of those is under team control. The answer to that question is quantity. No matter who is picked in any round, top of the 1st or all the way to Mr Irrelevant and beyond, the actual quality of a pick might not be known for months or even years after the pick is made. There has not been a draft pick ever who was guaranteed to be a quality pick. You can hope the guy you get is a quality pick, but so much is determined by team, coaching, scheme, teammates etc.
I’d be perfectly happy if they use the 10 picks they have where they have them. Plenty of guys in this draft that might work out quality wise down the road.

 

[Kinger95]

Better come away with one of the top 3 guards in the draft that’s all I care about

 

[TheLegendOfBoom]

Stick-n-Pick or if you really love a guy, trade up.

With the number of quality picks we have, I think it’s unwise to give up that 18th spot.

John Schneider logic be like: “I really like this guy and hopefully he fall to us. He’ll fall more. I think I’ll wait some more. So, I think I’ll trade down again.”

Player gets drafted.

“I was about to draft him with my next pick!”

 

[Maulbert]

I don't like the "crapshoot" belief. If the draft was a crapshoot, we wouldn't consistently see the hit rate on higher-drafted players absolutely dwarf each subsequent round. If I have ten scratch-off tickets, and my best one has a 45% chance of being something good, I'm not interested in trading that for a ticket with a 25% chance and two with a 5% chance.

Tell that to Aaron Curry.

 

[Rat]

Tell that to Aaron Curry.

Yeah, some players bust. It's not easy.

 

[GemCity]

Quality vs quantity? Only one of those is under team control. The answer to that question is quantity. No matter who is picked in any round, top of the 1st or all the way to Mr Irrelevant and beyond, the actual quality of a pick might not be known for months or even years after the pick is made. There has not been a draft pick ever who was guaranteed to be a quality pick. You can hope the guy you get is a quality pick, but so much is determined by team, coaching, scheme, teammates etc.
I’d be perfectly happy if they use the 10 picks they have where they have them. Plenty of guys in this draft that might work out quality wise down the road.

Very interesting perspective. There aren’t any guarantees.

Look at ADB…un-drafted…bonafide superstar.